Well, That Was Awesome

Think we're still on the bubble? No? No?

Anyway, hockey is way less depressing. Tonight the playoffs open. Items:

Injuries. Kolarik is in, Vaughn and Rust are out. Both Vaughn and Rust may make it back next weekend; Rust broke a "non-weight bearing" bone in his leg.

Teevees. Saturday night's game is on Comcast for the super-duper package recipients of the world; Friday and Sunday are sorta available. Yost Built:

Friday's game and Sunday's if necessary game can be viewed (for free) at MGoBlue.com courtesy of WOLV-TV. Saturday's game will be aired on Comcast Sportscenter or whatever the hell the not-Comcast-Local station is called. It's in the 900s on your digital box. Thank God for Slingbox.

Elsewhere. Root against CC, North Dakota, and Wisconsin in their opening-round CCHA series.

ggggargharagharagh. See, my main concern with the basketball team is this: maybe Manny Harris just isn't good and won't get good. He's a second-team all Big Ten player as a freshman, but there's a severe Bracey Wright effect going on. Wright was the Indiana shooting guard who set Big Ten Wonk all a-frenzy because people kept insisting he was an All-Big Ten player:

Bracey Wright being named first-team All-Big-Ten ranks alongside Milli Vanilli's Best New Artist Grammy as the epitome of travesty-by-award.

Main point cited was Wright's tendency to score a lot of points by shooting without remorse. A table compiled from Kenpom:

Player	Usage	eFG%	Ast Rt	TO rate	FT rate	Overall O RT
Wright 2005	29.6	48.2	20.4	16.0	44.4	105.7
Harris 2008	30.7	44.0	20.9	21.3	46.9	97.5

Freshman Manny Harris is a much, much crappier version of senior Bracey Wright, which is not to say that he's bad, but to say that he's the basketball equivalent of Jimmy Clausen: the perfect kid to overrate. In Clausen's case the factors were multifarious (famous name, ND commitment, overcoaching, being older than everyone, playing solely against overmatched tiny schools). It's simpler for basketball players; all they have to do is take a buttload of shots.

This Harris did, with the 32nd highest usage rate in the country. Harris also had the lowest eFG% of anyone on the team except Anthony Wright and walkons. More damningly, the "best" player on the team also had a higher TO rate than anyone except David Merritt.

There are two large mitigating factors: he's a freshman, and he's dealing with a mini version of the Dion Harris effect wherein a high-usage player on a crappy team ends up taking a lot of horrific shots and turns the ball over a lot because he's playing one on five. This happened to Harris (Dion version) his sophomore year, when Abram missed the season, Horton got suspended for half of it, and the rest of the team was limping in slings and casts and the like. Everyone expected a breakout season when he wasn't playing with Dani Wohl, and they got... eh, pretty much the same.

My winding point: Harris is not one of the ten best players in the Big Ten, not by a longshot, and he will have to improve significantly or draw the wrath of the Ghost of Wonk. And the pained apathy of this space.

What Is Love?

OSU fans are, as you might expect, displeased with the Pryor items over the last couple days:

Leading the charge in trying to unravel something is MGoBlog, which is really a shame, because Brian has spent the better part of the past two weeks railing against the “jihad” WVU has launched against Rodriguez.

Two major differences: I am not a member of the Michigan athletic department with a credulous reporter in hand, and I am not making obviously false statements like "it's like nothing ever existed." I am making a fairly logical leap from "OSU fans are basically Alabamans" and "OSU coaches are having dinner with a guy who lets Pryor borrow his Corvette" to "something fishy is going on." Point the second has been covered over the past couple days and has been confirmed by Jeanette locals, OSU's Scout site, and Scout guru Bob Lichtenfels.

Point the first: Basically Alabama. Ohio State boosters are awesome. Local dealerships are exceptionally generous with their test-drive programs:

Clarett sat out the 2003 season after he was charged with misdemeanor falsification for filing a police report claiming that more than $10,000 in clothing, CDs, cash and stereo equipment was stolen from a car he borrowed from a local dealership. He later pleaded guilty to a lesser charge.

Ohio State suspended Clarett for misleading investigators, and for receiving special benefits worth thousands of dollars from a family friend.

"Family friend" indeed. A poor kid from Youngstown in his first year in Columbus just happens to have a close personal friend who owns a car dealership.

You can find super-awesome jobs:

During his sophomore season, after he claimed the starting quarterback job and beat Michigan — a feat that cinches your celebrity in Columbus — he walked into a local health-care provider looking for a summer job and came out carrying an envelope with $500 in it. The cash was given to him by an Ohio State season-ticket holder named Robert Q. Baker, who bragged to co-workers that he owned Smith.

You can find a place to live:

Salyers claims the Roslovics reneged on a verbal agreement, allegedly orchestrated by then Ohio State assistant coach Paul Biancardi, to pay her $1,000 a month plus reimburse expenses if she would provide for Savovic during his time at Ohio State. In depositions, Salyers describes how over a four-year period she became a surrogate mother to Savovic, giving him food, shelter, clothing, transportation, spending money and other expenses.

(It should be noted, given the OSU denials later in that article, that Savovic was later declared ineligible and OSU was forced to vacate the games he played.)

There's a pattern of behavior here even if you don't include the documentation of widespread academic fraud in the New York Times, the Maurice Clarett ESPN the Magazine story, and the $3000 AJ Hawk just happened to have lying around. (I know Hawk looks like a caveman, but he's probably heard of a bank.) It involves Ohio State fans with lots of money ignoring NCAA regulations. Sure, all these things could be a completely innocent athletic department beset on all sides by those who would destroy it without cause. Occam's razor says otherwise.

(No doubt this assertion will draw "OMG Ed Martin" responses from the yokel crowd. 1) Ed Martin is not a pattern, he's a dead guy. 2) Martin was a Detroit numbers-runner looking to ingratiate himself with local basketball talent and maybe launder a few hundred grand or so, not a super-enthusiastic booster. Until Martin was provided gratis Final Four tickets he had no connection with the program. You are comparing one outlier with no real interest in Michigan's athletic program except as the most conveniently local source of potential NBA players to a pattern of malfeasance; you are stupid.)

Ohio State fans saying "I'm shocked, shocked!" when the pristine reputation of their athletic department is brought into question is somewhere between comical and infuriating. Please. Just because you've managed to rationalize it away doesn't mean everyone else has to.

-----------------------

Does it matter in the long run? Likely no. The NCAA has all the investigative might of Inspector Clouseau. The appearance of funny stuff will remain but an appearance.

The bigger issue here is Pryor's eligibility. Michigan fans remember the glorious three-month period when Kevin Gaines wasn't a psychopath, Jamal Crawford was eligible, and Michigan basketball looked like it was on the upswing under Brian Ellerbe of all people, and cringe. This is what happened to young Jamal:

Jamal Crawford is a rookie with the Chicago Bulls and making a lot of money. But Crawford still wishes he was playing basketball at Michigan.

"I miss college a lot," he said. "I live in a college area now because I like to be around college kids."

Crawford felt trapped last year when he decided to leave Michigan following his freshman season.

He already had served an eight-game suspension for one mistake -- sending the NBA a letter that said he intended to enter the 1999 draft before he enrolled in college. He had missed six other games and was ordered to repay $15,000 in benefits to a Seattle businessman, whom he had lived with for three years during high school. The NCAA later said he could give $11,300 to the charity of his choice. If he didn't pay, Crawford would lose his eligibility.

The infinite kindness of the NCAA: instead of paying the Seattle businessman 15 grand you don't have, you can give Jerry's Kids 11 grand you don't have. Crawford entered the draft, blew up at a pre-draft camp, and was picked 8th overall as Michigan fans clutched their head between their knees in a futile attempt to keep it from exploding.

Crawford was a nice kid with a lack of foresight who got offered stuff and, as most people would, accepted. Pryor's been offered stuff and has evidently accepted. How much stuff and how much of a paper trail there is will determine if the NCAA comes knocking.

It would be just like Angry Michigan Safety Hating God to allow Pryor to commit to Michigan, start six games his freshman year, and then have the NCAA pull a Crawford; this is kind of what I expect to happen because recent experience has taught me that this is what I should expect.

Who Is This Corvette?

Holly got the color wrong yesterday:

Obviously the first thing that leaps to mind is "OMG photoshop," but that doesn't look photshopped to me. Nor does it look recent, given those "leaf" things on the trees. Perhaps he was just borrowing it, but, dude... that ain't legal, either. Unless you're a star running back in Columbus.

Scout guru Bob Lichtenfels attempts to explain ($), but mostly just confirms the veracity of the above photo and makes it worse:

I believe from what I have heard that is Sarniac's Corvette. TP borrowed it for prom or homecoming and will give it to him as a graduation present. That photo is old news

Sure, Bob, that photo is old news. The idea that a fellow who's buddy-buddy with the OSU coaches is going to give Terrelle Pryor a Corvette... new news? Is this kid even eligible?

Maybe this is why Charlie Batch is involved, and why Jeanette's high school coach has been saying things like

"Terrelle is the person that must make the decision, no one else" Batch said. "He's the person who has to be happy where he'll spend the next three or four years. His friends have to realize that."

Do any of Pryor's friends own glass factories?

Who Is Ted Sarniak?

Ted Sarniak is a businessman who lives in Jeanette, Pennsylvania. He owns a glass factory:

"Jeannette Specialty Glass is the longest-running glass company in the city," Howard says. The factory has been in existence since 1904. Ted and Kathleen Sarniak have owned the facility since April 1976.

"It was founded by a family named Crock, and the factory stayed in that family until we purchased it," Ted Sarniak says. "It was previously known as Jeannette Shade and Novelty. As we got into making more items, we changed the name to Jeannette Specialty Glass."

His glass and glass-type things have been touched by the stars:

"We've made sinks for most of the major hotels in Las Vegas, for Ringo Starr and Celine Dion," Ted Sarniak says. "Our line of gourmet dinnerware and serving bowls will be used in upscale restaurants and homes all over the world."

He's not above the occasional bribe:

The investigation began in April when Peck received a complaint that Sarniak bribed police to avoid arrest. Sarniak crashed his car into the utility pole at the corner of Lowry Avenue and Division Street following the Jeannette-Central Catholic football game.

When patrolman Justin Scalzo arrived, he "found Sarniak uncooperative, smelling of alcohol, glass in his hair and a damaged windshield," according to Peck.

Sarniak was taken to Mercy Jeannette Hospital for treatment of a head injury but refused to allow medical personnel to draw his blood to determine his alcohol level. In Pennsylvania, a reading of .08 meets the legal presumption of intoxication. Refusal to submit to a blood test or Breathalyzer carries an automatic one-year license suspension, Peck said.

After the incident, Peck said Sarniak contacted another Jeannette patrolman, Keith Rosky, and told Rosky he had only two drinks that night and was not drunk. Peck said Sarniak did not ask Rosky for any favors, but Rosky mentioned the conversation to Scalzo and asked him not to charge Sarniak with drunken driving.

He is very generous to people in the community, and likes football:

Sarniak regularly has given gifts to city police officers, Peck said. Rosky and other officers have received Steeler football tickets from Sarniak.

"Although there was no direct link between the gift of the tickets and the intervention of Officer Rosky in the incident, one would be naive to believe that such gifts were not helpful in Mr. Sarniak receiving a willing ear from Officer Rosky," Peck said.

A smooth mover, Ted Sarniak is probably the richest man in Jeanette, Pennsylvania.

Why is he meeting with Ohio State coaches?

“It’s crazy and it’s going to get worse as it gets closer,” Reitz said. “It’s like playing poker: Everybody wants to have the last trump card.”

Last week, OSU’s coaches made an appearance and had a Thursday night dinner with someone close to Pryor believed to be Ted Sarniak, a Jeannette businessman. The following day, the 6-6, 225-pound Pryor headed to Ann Arbor for his second official visit.

And why has that Scout article, emailed to me by four different people in the span of ten minutes last night, been changed to read like this?

Last week, OSU’s coaches made an appearance and the following day, the 6-6, 225-pound Pryor headed to Ann Arbor for his second official visit.

Scratch a message board remotely connected with recruiting and you will encounter a vast network of rumors about Sarniak, Pryor, and Ohio State: Pryor has a new Corvette and worked at Sarniak's factory this summer. Sarniak has a business in Dublin, Ohio, that's doing quite well. OSU coaches and Sarniak had dinner before Pryor's trip to Michigan. None can be proven, and all seem like sour grapes from schools not likely to end up with Pryor on their team.

But... yeah, Maurice Clarett was driving around an SUV he didn't own and Troy Smith was suspended for taking money from a booster and Jim O'Brien bought a bunch of Yugoslavians or something. Ohio State fans are an enthusiastic bunch, aren't they?

I Find The Productive Conversations We Are Having To Be Very Productive And Conversationy

Yeah, the post headers are broken in Firefox. Dunno why. Looking into it.

Everything about the Big Ten Network is productive. They have conversations which produce things. Not, like, agreements with major cable providers, sure, but expensive lunches, fan anger, and inexplicable fawning from Free Press employees. Mark Snyder's latest is... um... weird. I'd gotten used to Snyder as a news-guy who brings information and does not offer opinion, and now we have evidence as to why. His latest "blog" -- sorry about the scare quotes, but the Free Press doesn't even make any pretense, they just throw up a story and label it a blog -- is a stunningly Pollyanna thing that seems like it came directly from the mighty PR bowels of the Big Ten office.

Now is the time on Sprockets when we fisk.

The upcoming Big Ten Network is an outstanding idea.

From the moment it was announced last summer, it seemed ideal, filling a void that has existed since the explosion of cable televised sports in the past decade.

Wait... what void? Virtually every Big Ten game of import is televised nationally on ABC or basic cable. Basketball fans can catch any game that's not against Maryland-Baltimore County or equivalents on local syndication. Anyone out-of-market can buy ESPN's Gameplan for a reasonable price and get every game his team plays. The 95% of Big Ten fans who don't care about hockey should have absolutely no quarrel with the current state of coverage.

The next few months will be rocky if the large cable deals aren’t signed. Fans will start to worry about missing college football games and likely blame the network.

...yes, they will. Because it will be the network's fault. This is the ideal blame situation, when you can blame the thing that is at blame.

But that will be a temporary blip and Silverman knows it, that’s why his patience is impressive.

Justification for this is... what? His "patience" is impressive? This sound exactly like "we are not going to be on cable this fall" spun 180 degrees. Bill Martin wants to end the ND series! Patience is a virtue when it comes to getting on basic cable, because Lord knows we don't want to rush into something like having people watch our channel. I have patience, too. It expires the first time Michigan is shoehorned onto the Big Ten Network and I have to scramble to find it.

The network’s long-term future should withstand any early frustrations because, unlike CSTV and ESPNU, the Big Ten will have significant content from the start.

Guaranteeing at least two appearances by every conference football team was perfect. That way they’re not debuting with only second-tier events and appear legitimate. Much like the NFL Network's securing late-season football telecasts, fans will chase their teams wherever they are -- as long as they don’t have to pay extra for the privilege.

This is terrifying to me. In the latest chat on the Big Ten Network's official site:

Question: If we have already contacted our local cable provider and they have told us that they have no plans to carry the Big Ten Network this fall, what are we as fans to do at this point? Comcast is telling inquiring customers that they have no plans to carry the network.
Posted By: Tom from East Lansing, MI
5/24/2007 12:49:01 PM

And wait... perfect? Much like the NFL Network's brilliant plan to force cable operators to carry them by getting exclusive rights to a few NFL games? That worked so brilliantly that the NFL Network got on basic cable... nowhere. And they're charging 70 cents instead of the preposterous $1.10 the Big Ten Network has been demanding.

His track record includes launching the ESPN Zone restaurant chain -- an unqualified success -- so he has a feel for the people‘s wishes. That’s why he plans to be available with online chats at www.bigtennetwork.com, including the first one this Thursday at 1 p.m.

Online chats! This is definitely on the right track!

What the network realizes, and is lost on CSTV and ESPNU, is that college sports rarely have national appeal during their seasons. Only at the very end -- with college football being the lone exception -- do fans care about more than their conference and their team.

What does that even mean? CSTV and ESPNU are low-cost, no-access channels with no compelling programming, granted. Given that "patience" is now being espoused, it appears that the BTN will be a high-cost, no-access channel with compelling programming like Michigan-Appalachian State. Both situations suck, but only one is suffused in the gasoline of hubris, ready to be lit aflame in fall when football fans can't get the games they would have if this channel did not exist. I thought the whole point of the Big Ten Network was to increase access to Big Ten sports to fans; the way this is going there will be a net decrease. Fewer games will be shown nationally. Each team will have two games relegated to a regional cable ghetto.

Snyder makes no sense here. The big draw he has just espoused is football. He praises the Big Ten for "understanding" the provincial nature of college sports and their lack of widespread appeal mere paragraphs after praising the Big Ten for creating "compelling" programming by... locking away football games.

The Big Ten Network brass already understands the challenge of stability is for a long-term deal, not simply a rush to line it up for Sept. 1. That’s why they’ll wait until they can reach the widest audience possible.

We are screwed. The Big Ten Network understands that they can force cable providers into a deal they don't want to accept because they're obviously more important than the NFL.

Silverman and his staff will hear your complaints. They just may not deserve it.

Yeah... wow. An embarrassing shill job.

About this chat thing. It's totally awesomely useful:

WHAT IS THE STATUS OF YOUR NEGOTIATIONS WITH DISH NETWORK?

negotiations are moving along very well with all satellite and cable providers.

You say you have reached an agreement with 40 cable companies. Which companies are these.

these agreements will be announced as the contracts are signed over the next few weeks

We have heard that the Big Ten Network will be a good thing because it gives fans more access to Big Ten programming. However lets say you are unsuccesful with distribution and only people with DirectTV can see it. What are your plans in this case so millions of loyal fans in the region don't miss games.

we are working hard to make sure all big ten fans can see their teams play. It is very early in the distribution process and we are making great progress with distributors.

And this... is just... I don't know what it is:

Question: Will you show video's of boys climbing ropes. I used to really like that about gym class and would love to relive the moments. I mean there's nothing like a good old time rope climb to lighten the spirits. I do say I'd really enjoy a show about boys climbing rope
Posted By: Billy from Cicero, IL
5/24/2007 12:18:55 PM

Mark Silverman - Big Ten Network President's Response: we will have 35+ HD football games, well over 100 HD basketball games, not to mention olympic sports and women's sports.

BOYS! CLIMBING ROPES!

!!!

Question: I am pessimistic about your negotiations with Comcast considering their history with sports networks, i.e. a long delay to add FSN Detroit HD, moving ESPN Classic to digital, moving NFLN to the sports tier, not including ESPNU and CSTV in the sports tier, etc. Why should I be optimistic?
Posted By: James from Detroit, MI
5/24/2007 12:22:15 PM

Mark Silverman - Big Ten Network President's Response: we think the big ten network has a unique appeal that doesn't compare with other networks. we have over 40 cable deals agreed to on terms that we think are fair and reasonable and we believe we will continue striking agreements as we continue.

What is the possibility Time Warner Cable will carry The BTN? We have not had much success getting them to carry NFL Network, so I have concerns they won't carry the BTN either.

we have had very productive conversations with time warner and all cable/satellite providers.

Myself and a lot of friends have Dish Network. We are die hard Illinois Fans and we want to be able to see all the games. how close is Dish Network to signing the Big Ten Network?

we have had productive conversations with dish network.

Well, all my concerns have been assuaged.

This has disaster written all over it. When the Big Ten Network was announced, I thought it was a great idea given the following assumptions:

• The existing ESPN-ABC setup, which is very kind to the Big Ten, would remain untouched.
• Football on the network would restricted to Michigan State-Indiana, Illinois-Northwestern, and the like, giving those mediocre games a place to go other than ESPN+ syndication.
• The network would, like, you know, be available.

In an outburst of stunning hubris, the Big Ten has horned in on the ESPN distribution, in some weeks grabbing the second-best game available, guaranteed that every team is exiled to purgatory at least twice, and made demands not even the NFL could pull off. Even basketball coverage will get hurt if they maintain their exclusivity and don't get on basic cable, as ESPN+ syndication that got those games on locally will evaporate.

There's still time for the BTN to find itself on cable providers. And as long as I get it, even on a digital tier, I'm fine with that. But if it is relegated to the CSTV/ESPNU land of satellite-only access, there will be a conniption fit here and across the Big Ten region, and it will be deserved. Silverman's vague claims of productivity and "40 cable providers" seem intentionally misleading, which makes me think that things are going poorly. Snyder's breathless praise of Silverman's "patience" -- not a virtue in this situation -- makes me think things have reached an impasse and that the public rhetoric is changing in preparation for an August controversy.

google image search + "sweet pig justice" == guinea pig Damien

It's times like these I wish we were all Arkansas fans, because nobody screws with Arkansas fans without some sweet pig justice coming the other way. Heck, you can get to the SEC championship game and still receive sweet pig justice. They're itching to dispense it. If we were Arkansas fans, Jim Delaney would be hiding out in an Afghani cave and Mark Silverman would be a quivering hobo trying to trade sneaky rhetoric for booze. Also we would be really into fishing, if my one brief visit to a Natural State gas station/restaurant/fishing supply store is any indication. But wouldn't have to deal with this.

Unverified Voracity No So Happy

Big Ten fretwork. A helpful commenter pointed out an interesting thread on the Big Ten Network taking place at USCHO. There are conflicting accounts about how well channel availability is going. One guy claims to be an insider...

Had a meeting with Big Ten Network President Mark Silverman last night.

...and says things are going swimmingly...

You'll be surprised as to how widespread the network is going to be. Their affiliate sales are going really well, and MANY cable systems are picking up the channel. With over 4 million Big Ten alumni in the country, there is an actual demand for this channel.

though they're on the down low at the moment:

And to answer your questions...

1. None have announced, MANY have agreed. (Thank Fox for pre-existing distribution channels and relationships)
2. Most likely digital for the time being, with a possibility of Big Ten markets having it on basic. (for example, digital in New York City and basic in Lafayette, Indiana)

Unfortunately, someone called up the Big Ten Network and got cold water thrown on them:

I had a long talk with a person at the BTN yesterday. She even went as far as to get some more information and call me back.

None of what I heard was very good. I can't have a dish where I live -- her answer was go to a sports bar when you want to watch something! I have over $5000 invested in my TV system and I am supposed to go to a smoky sports bar

I have been told by TW of SC that they have no interest in putting the BTN on its service.

She told me that a non league football game might be on ESPN Game Plan, but it would have to be an away game for the BT team. She said that ABC will still do splint regional broadcasts and the BT game SHOULD be on ESPN or the Duce. However the Big 12 just got an agreement with ESPN to show football on Saturday nights. Same deal for basketball as it pertains to Full court.
... She inferred to me that TW really has no interest in the BTN unless it is in the BT "footprint"

TW = Time Warner. SC = ??? Southern California? South Carolina?

The initial thought in my head is that the guy who's meeting with the network president gets told a lot of cheerful things to keep morale up that may or may not be true. Given the struggles ESPNU, CSTV, and the NFL Network have had I can't imagine a regional sports network with little in the way of compelling programming (wooo Indiana-Minnesota!) demanding 50% more than the freakin' NFL is going to get anywhere. The only question is how viciously the network plays hardball and how badly out of market fans get jacked up. Michigan is unlikely to be affected since even their games against conference dregs usually end up somewhere on the ABC sports hydra; State, on the other hand...

Public opinion, if the internet is any indication, is quickly turning against the BTN. When it was announced I had a chat with Orson about it; in said chat Orson put on his Oliver Stone hat and envisioned the Big Ten cutting off national access to Big Ten sports in favor of a regional ghetto high in the 200s no one gets or watches. I haughtily dismissed his concerns as far fetched. No one would be that stupid, right? Well, we are talking about a conference whose commissioner thought it a good idea to call SEC teams unscrupulous puppy killers in public after his two premiere teams had just been waxed unmercifully. So, yeah. The Big Ten might be that stupid. All I know is that if I am wandering into a sports bar this year to watch anything other than hockey, the conference has gotten too big for its britches and Jim Delaney should be shot into the sun.

Three three three. Beilein must have had a press conference or something, because a week after the proposed change in the three point line became public knowledge the Ann Arbor News, Free Press, Detroit News, and Daily all have articles on it. The News breaks out a useful graphic:


Why was the international line not judged sufficient? Odd.

I've been in favor of moving the line back for a long time. See this post from last February:

A quick glance at Big Ten Wonk's statistics reveals that over a third (34.3%) of all shots launched in the Big Ten are (high-variance, probably ill-chosen) threes. By comparison, fewer than 20% of shots in the NBA are three-pointers. No doubt there are a multitude of reasons for this--lack of dudes like Lebron or Kobe who can drive with impunity, the tendency of college teams to pack the lane--but foremost among them is the three point line, which is almost close enough to make any two-point shot a bad one. Let's leave the kiddie line in high schools and obsolete the term "NBA three." Please.

So I'm happy about the change, though I'm less happy than I would be if we hadn't just hired a coach who loves to shoot the three. Beilein was tacitly against the change when asked:

"I'm an if it's not broken, don't fix it type of guy," Beilein said. "But most of my contemporaries felt this was a good move, and it wasn't a battle that I needed to win. ... We can adapt -- there is no question about it."

Many of Beilein's drills already involve shooting from a variety of distances, so the likely change may not be a major disruption. He also insisted Wednesday that the perception that his team relies primarily on the three-pointer is overblown.

"Absolutely," he said. "We've had games where we didn't shoot that many threes and we drove the ball and back-doored and scored most of our baskets inside -- far more baskets inside the arc.

"We mix it up pretty much. We try and do what the best way to win would be."

Though I am so totally in love with him, this is spin. It's clear the college three-point line was broken. When over a third of your shots are threes, something's wrong. Also, though Beilein attempts to downplay the importance of the three in his offense, Kenpom calls him a liar. (Perhaps this is not fair to Kenpom. Fine: reality calls him a liar.)

	3PA/FGA	Rank
2007	49%	5th
2006	51.4%	3rd
2005	45.9%	7th
2004	40.1%	25th

The last two years approximately half of West Virginia's field goal attempts have been threes. Michigan will be hurt more than most other teams by the change; Beilein will either have to adapt his style to take fewer or live with lower percentages. I think there's evidence he's willing to do the former. In discussions of the 1-3-1 zone he's implied strongly that he's not married to any one particular style of play. As a guy who's dragged himself up through the coaching ranks he's had to be flexible and innovative; one way to do this was to attack a failing in the rules by jacking up all sorts of threes. If that's less broken he'll exploit it less.

To be fair, Beilein does have a point about the sorts of threes his team takes: many aren't exactly toes on the line. He has his kids practice from the NBA line and in the game many of the shots from the outside are from the outside, a foot or three behind the existing line. The Daily:

Beilein said he didn't think the new line would make much of a difference anyway, even when first implemented. He said many players already shoot from the new distance, and some even shoot better from farther out because they have a better follow through on those shots.

Beilein already uses the NBA 3-point line in practices to help ensure his players don't get locked into shooting from only a few spots. And he said he would gradually adjust to using the new distance, but won't worry about it until after next season.

Bottom line: expect a negative effect but I don't think it will be pronounced.

Etc.: Jerome Jackson got signed by the Browns(!). Good for him; wonder why it took the coaches so long to break him out during the Year of Infinite Pain. Baseball still swatting.

What Orson Said

(And what he said: recruiting is creepy.)

Approximate timeline of my yesterday:

• 12-1ish AM: post Orson Swindle Award Bukkake Part I.
• Sometime in the night: Internets go away.
• Sometime later, say ten-ish: recruiting hell breaks loose. Five star cornerback Ronald Johnson, a critical, OMG Shirtless recruit if there ever was one, reportedly drops Michigan. Panic, chaos ensue.
• Yet later (I said this was approximate): someone starts forwarding a creepy email around purporting to be inside information on the exact circumstances of the drop. It levels Lebron's mom-type accusations at the Official Mom of Rojo and implies that shady doesn't begin to cover said circumstances. None of it will ever be proven true; all of it will filter into Michigan recruiting lore. The ghost stories hardcore recruitniks tell each other when they like to simulate misery now include Ronald Johnson's mom.
• 6:30-ish. Online, I survey the carnage. Someone's sent me an email declaring it to be a "kick in the nuts." What? Wait? He? I quickly pass through the first few stages of Kubler-Ross -- it can't be true I GON KILL SOMEONE what if we offer his brother I GON KILL ME -- before settling on a Michigan-football-localized depression.

End result: Ronald Johnson, a guy who has never said anything more definitive than "Michigan is in my top five," is trashed by jilted nuts. His mom, assuming this all turns out like it looks like it's going to, is going to be Public Enemy Number One for a certain subsection of Michigan fandom because one guy sent a somewhat convincing but very, very unverified email. I'm looking for puppies to kick (unless they can play cornerback, in which case it's "red rocket" time).

Recruiting, ladies and gentlemen! I hate it and will never fall for this stuff ag--

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- First he committed to Michigan. Then he changed his mind and decided to go to Indiana. Now Warren Central standout Jerimy Finch, the top-rated high school football player in Indiana, said it's a two-horse race. Finch, who made an unofficial visit to the University of Florida last weekend, said Wednesday night he has not decided if he will attend Indiana or Michigan.

C'mon Jerimy! You, your badass safety skills, and your complete inability to understand the words "verbal commitment" would be a perfect fit at Michigan. You would start last season! I'll tutor you! Charles Woodson won the Heisman and so can you!

So, yeah, recruiting is creepy. But so am I, evidently. The latest:

Ronald Johnson still seems to be out. There will undoubtedly be many conflicting rumors in the next few days (he plans to announce Sunday) and I'll try to parse them to offer up some general idea of where he's going, but at this point he seems like a vast longshot.

The Donovan Warren bull market is receding and USC again appears to be the likely destination. The rumored unofficial to Michigan that was supposed to happen a few days ago did not come off. While the mere possibility it would happen implies that Michigan is under serious consideration, it also implies that there needed to be a little extra push to convince the young man and that won't be happening now.

Jerimy Finch is momentarily considering Michigan. Previous statements from Finch:

• I'm 100% committed to Michigan
• I'm 100% committed to Indiana.
• It's 50-50 between Indiana and Florida.
• It's 50-50 between Indiana and Michigan.

Schroedinger's recruit. Open the box on signing day.

Rashad Mason did not make a trip to Clemson and is considering Ole Miss, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Michigan. Michigan clobberates those schools but good in recent on-field success, but the rest are closer to his Tennessee home -- Mason's expressed a desire to get out of Tennessee and "experience new things," but how new are we talking here? -- and can presumably offer more immediate access to playing time behind guys who aren't Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington. Has never named a leader. So, like, I dunno. Think we're better than 25% but worse than 40%.

Death To College Football

Today the Detroit News speculates on Michigan's twelfth opponent for 2007. (Eastern Michigan, previously scheduled to open the season, has agreed to move into Michigan's Oct. 6 bye.) The proposed answer is not -- as had been vaguely hoped in this space before -- the first half of a home-and-home or two-for-one with a mediocre BCS team with upside like UNC, but a rerun of a show we didn't want to see all that much in the first place: Vanderbilt. While blowing the Commodores to kingdom come will totally shut up all those SEC partisans, it lacks any conceivable benefit down the road and finishes a Michigan OOC slate with no, count 'em, no road games.

Why are we doing this? Bill Martin answers:

One of the drawbacks of a 12-game regular season for Michigan is negotiating with opponents who want the Wolverines to schedule a home-and-away series. For the Wolverines, the idea is to play as many games at home and score big paydays of several million dollars each Saturday at Michigan Stadium.

"We need eight home games in order to pay the bills," Martin said.

This is obviously a lie. Michigan did not require eight home games to pay the bills when the NCAA maximum was an eleven-game regular season. Unless Michigan is up and canceling the remainder of the Notre Dame series they will face the terrifying possibility of a mere seven home games next year. This is "need" in the same way that Imelda Marcos "needed" 3,000 pairs of shoes. (Woot outdated Bloom County-era reference!) But no matter my protestations, I will face two tickets next year that say "Eastern Michigan" and "Best Case Scenario: Vanderbilt" that each cost something near 100 dollars.

There's no way around it: I'm a sap. A mark. A rube. The dirty Victorian era ne'er-do-wells in the athletic department have entwined me in a confidence scheme. (They call me "guv'nor" to my face, though.) This is part of the charm of college football. Of all sports, it is the sappiest, the rube-iest, the sport with the most frothing partisans so dependent on the not-all-that-metaphorical drug of sport that they'll put up with the shoddiest treatment imaginable just to get their junkie hands on a ticket to That Game. But I, and everyone else in the civilized world, is repulsed by the results of our explotation: seat licenses. Games against Appalachian State. Endless televised beatdowns that have all the competitive thrill of Christians vs. Lions. Complete mystery when the Dumbest Playoff Ever rolls around and is usually forced to pick between two to four opponents indistinguishable because of the aforementioned Christians-Lions matchups.

And for what? For who? Where are all the skyrocketing television fees complete with extra commercials that used to be, you know, gameplay going? Where are the PSLs going? Where is my ticket to Eastern Michigan going?

This guy. Basically. One might be forgiven for thinking that the NCAA has ceased to be an actual regulatory organization and is instead a highly complex scheme for funneling money into Nick Saban's Scrooge McDuck vault, where he puts on an old-fashioned unitard bathing suit and gleefully leaps into his piles of gold coins. And it's not just Saban. This relatively ancient Bloomberg article from March 2005 takes a look at the increase in NCAA coaching salaries across the board from '97 to '03 and finds that average compensation went up 89 percent in just six years. This is before the twelfth game. (Though it's noted that there were some twelfth games in there. That was a calendar quirk and not permanent policy, however.) This is before 3-2-5e. This before Superfluous BCS Bowl and The Two Teams With Six Wins Each bowls. This includes the obscurest coaches you can think of, like Romanian Buffalo Polo.

Eighty-nine percent in six years.

!!!

This would all be fine if this was a professional enterprise and the engines driving the revenue growth were sharing in the bounty. And it might even be fine as a collegiate, "amateur" enterprise if literally every relevant decision made by the NCAA and its member schools over the past decade had not been made in an effort to maximize the hell out of said revenue at any cost. This year in college football we had the dual spectres of 3-2-5e and a twelfth game; taken together the two rules are a giant middle finger to fans. While the twelfth game promised more action for football-starved fans, that "action" was Christians-Lions stuff. Meanwhile, 3-2-5e shaved off 10% of each game in favor of more commercials. End result: same amount of football, one more crappy ticket to buy and two hours more commercials to watch. These are the actions of a non-profit organization with the best interests of student-athletes at heart? No. The NCAA grubs for every dollar it can get, wringing a ludicrously spiraling amount of money out of the average college football fan -- that 89 percent increase in compensation is coupled with a staggering 66 percent increase in revenue -- and for what? The average player is not 66% better off. He still gets the same deal he did in 1950. The average fan is certainly much worse off, being milked for PSLs and Vandy-At-Best exhibitions. The only people benefiting are already excessively-compensated coaches and ESPN, because ESPN always benefits.

The NCAA can do little about the skyrocketing coaching salaries without entering serious Lenin territory, but a few simple changes well within their power would show that they care about something other than the bottom line:

• Create a hard cap of six home games per year.
• Repeal 3-2-5e and willfully degrade the value of television contracts by cutting down on interminable commercial interruptions.
• Drug Ryan Seacrest and secretly give him plastic surgery that makes him look like Abe Vigoda.
• Force both home and visitor to agree to games played after 3:30.
• Ban post January 1st bowl games.

These things are all possible, though several coaches may have to wait an extra year or two before getting the final Lexus in their burgeoning luxury car Voltron. These things are also all going to be passed never ever.

I'll leave Lloyd Carr the final word.

"Money … we need to make more money," Carr said, not disguising his sarcasm. "Let's play more games and let's make sure the players are available to play any time, any night, 24/7." ... "I think we've gone down that road and there never will be a return unfortunately," Carr said. "I think the 12th game was just the first of what's going to be a continued growth … we're turning into a professional sport."

(Josh Centor responds to Carr's "rant" -- side note: terming anything you disagree with a "rant" is an irritating rhetorical trick designed to make your opponent look irrational without actually combating his, you know, words and stuff and is to be avoided at all costs -- on the NCAA's DoubleA Zone like so:

The NCAA makes most of its money from its contract with CBS, which pays for the broadcast rights to the Division I men’s basketball tournament, as well as other championship events, such as last weekend’s track and field championship. Conferences and institutions work out the contracts for regular season football games, not the NCAA. Revenue derived from Division I football is quite small for the NCAA. ...

I often defend the NCAA’s need to maximize revenues. With more than 1,000 member institutions with broad-based athletics programs, money is needed to support non-revenue sports. The NCAA sends 94 percent of its revenue back to member institutions. Most of those dollars come from the CBS contract, not from Division I-A football.

Official nickname for Nick Saban around these parts: "Non-Revenue Sports." So he's abdicating NCAA responsibility for the bowl games it sanctions, for the rules it passes, for the I-AA sacrifices it legalizes, and for the twelfth game it authorizes. Obviously something could be done if anyone felt like it. But no one does, and that's sort of the point. Unless he can show that someone other than non-revenue coaches is getting all that maximized revenue, that point is useless as well.)

(EDSBS is exploring this same ugly topic from another angle: recruiting.)

Recruiting Board Sort Of Updated

1/29: Nothin's going on. Added, uh, QB(?) DT Ronaldo Sagesse, who's from Quebec. Removed OH LB Jermale Hines, who finally committed to OSU. Linked to article on Rashad Mason's trip to Ole Miss.

Editorial Opinon: Some things are actually happening and I'll attempt to relate said things to you. Sagesse is an Illinois commit who took a visit to Michigan a week or two ago and is now deciding between the two schools. Alan Branch's departure may help us here. I have no idea how good he is; Rivals has him as a middling three star. We don't have a pressing need at DT but neither of the two guys we got last year is anything like a sure thing -- everyone expects Brandon Graham, who moonlighted as a pass-rushing DT late in games this year, to move to defensive end -- and his commitment would be welcome.

Other than Michigan, the other schools Mason has visited: Ole Miss, Kentucky, and North Carolina. He was going to LSU this weekend, but they informed him they were full at WR. Clemson, last on his docket, is the only school he's considering other than Michigan that's not among the worst BCS programs in the country. So we've got that going for us. But none of those schools have two years of Manningham/Arrington blocking Mason's path to playing time, as I'm sure the Orgeron emphasized ("WHADDYAGONDO BOUTDAT MANHAM") on his visit. Mason on Michigan:

Now that Rashad has had a chance to visit Michigan, North Carolina, and Ole Miss; what did each school have over the other?

"Michigan's players probably stood out the most. North Carolina's coaches stood out the most, and Ole Miss' campus and environment stood out the most."

When Mason is taking his official visits; what is focusing on?

"I am looking at their environment, campus, coaches, players, and a good business program."

Which business program has impressed Mason the most so far?

"Michigan because they are rated the highest, but that does not really take anything away from North Carolina and Ole Miss . They have great programs too."

Read into that what you will; I dunno.

Ronald Johnson took a frightening visit to Florida over the weekend, as did onetime commit Jerimy Finch. I am officially getting nervous about Rojo, since we've had nonstop assurances from insiders that he'll commit from day one but never even an inkling from the man himself. He's given no indication, ever, that anyone leads. I'm jumpy.

We're still pursuing Finch but it seems unlikely we'll get him back.

Finally, Michigan internets are abuzz with positivity about California uber-cornerback Donovan Warren, long thought to be going to USC. I have no insider information, but you can count me as a doubter. Often this sort of thing is a recruiting site saying something like "we're not completely out of it" in a vague, subscription-pumping fashion. They never say anything outright, but set the table for people to infer things and get excited about their "chance." The internet echo chamber then goes to work. Survey says USC, IMO. Purest of speculation.