Preview: Florida

VEQ? Miscommunication, poor scheduling, and a post-Independence-Bowl -drinking-game induced screwup meant Orson and I did not hook up. And yes, I mean it just like that.

So, right. Tomorrow at 1 PM Michigan plays Florida. This is what we know:

• Jim Carty thinks everyone is fat; Mike Hart disagrees.
• We aren't that good.
• Tim Tebow.

Run Offense vs. Florida

Mike Hart's ankle injury seemed innocuous in the aftermath of the Purdue game, but quickly metastasized into a season-crippling disaster that lingered for the rest of the year. Though he played against Michigan State and Ohio State, he missed games against Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and was ineffective even when in the game.

Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown were adequate to good against Illinois and Minnesota, non-factors against Michigan State, and swarmed under against Wisconsin; OSU had a steady diet of TFLs against a gimpy Hart and a lost offensive line.

Florida's 11th-ranked rushing offense appears to pose a stiff test, but a closer look reveals an inconsistent unit that benefited from a soft rushing schedule. Florida State was 96th nationally, South Carolina 101st, and a large portion of the rest of the schedule was Troy and Florida Atlantic and Vandy. Against teams in the same approximate range as Michigan's #44 ranking -- which is may be distorted postively by Michigan's run-pass distribution (56% run) but is also distorted negatively by Hart's extended absence -- this is how Florida did:

Team	Rush Off	Att v UF	Yards v UF	YPC v UF
Tennessee	67	21	37	1.8
Auburn	56	39	125	3.2
LSU	11	52	247	4.75
Kentucky	52	27	139	5.1
Georgia	37	37	203	5.5

(Note that QB and "team" carries were excised for everyone except Auburn's Kodi Burns and LSU's duo -- LSU uses a lot of option and QB draws even with Flynn in the game -- as Florida racked up a large number of sacks in certain games, distorting the totals. Team carries are almost always kneeldowns. Sacks are passing events and will be dealt with in another section.)

This concludes the pulse-bearing rush attack section of the Florida schedule. There is one dominant performance, one pretty good one, and three decidedly meh ones. I tentatively declare Florida's rush defense a paper tiger.

Will this matter given Michigan's downright dismal performances against Wisconsin and Ohio State? I lean towards no. Michigan's scheme has been void of new ideas since the Oregon game and is currently trying to make do with a terribly out-of-shape Alex Mitchell as a starter. Steve Schilling has also been ineffective most of the year, though more prominently in pass pickup, and Carson Butler is guaranteed to pick up one holding penalty and utterly whiff on three other blocks. There are too many points of failure, and Michigan's run offense is probably closer to the Tennessee-Auburn level than that of the three teams that seriously torched

Key Matchup: Mike Hart versus His Traitorous Ankle. I should have an actual matchup for the Ohio State game, but nothing will impact Michigan's run game more than the status of Hart's gimpy wheel.

Pass Offense vs. Florida

Ohio State preview:

This preview assumes that Chad Henne will play; if he does not please substitute "HEAD FOR THE HILLS! ONLY THE STRONG WILL SURVIVE!" for the text in this space.

Henne did play, but was obviously broken. If he remains broken you can feel free to change the channel at halftime. The current state of injury rumor suggests that this may be the case, but we won't know until Henne starts throwing. More ducks like the OSU game and it'll be a long day. If he's on, really on, like Henne at his apex, Michigan can keep it close and maybe pull it out with a bounce or two, but I don't think anyone's banking on that anymore.

This is where the Gator sacks come in: though they racked up huge numbers against Auburn and Kentucky above, Florida was actually pretty average at this: 58th nationally at just over two per game. UF has a couple of decent-to-good defensive ends -- as a true sophomore, Jermaine Cunningham is definitely promising -- but no one on the level of OSU terror Vernon Gholston. With some help for Schilling, Michigan may be able to forestall the Florida pass rush decently. This would allow them access to the Gator achilles heel, their crappy defensive backs. Every time people are surveyed about Michigan's preferred strategy in this game someone says "attack Florida's crappy defensive backs with your excellent receivers," and this makes sense around these parts, too.

The catch: Henne's shoulder was separated in the Illinois game and held together until Wisconsin, at which point he left the game and Michigan collapsed to two straight season-ending losses. Will it be better? Dunno. But I bet you can guess the next section...

Key Matchup: Henne versus his traitorous shoulder. Unless he's a lot better than he was against OSU, we dead.

Run Defense vs. Florida

Ohio State preview:

I'm looking for a way this won't be ugly and can't find one.

What do you get when you combine Armanti Edwards, Chris Wells and jean shorts?


Goddammit. The progenitor of the term "OMG shirtless," Tim Tebow went from uber-recruit to Heisman winner in two years. Michigan's rush defense has had two weaknesses this year: the zone read and interior running. Given this, Tim Tebow is hell in pads. Then there's Kehstan Moore, mighty mite Brandon James, and Percy Harvin.

Percy Harvin. Goddammit. Percy Harvin is also an uber-recruit, and every time I watch him play I'm reminded of this:



Considering that Ohio State's quarterback spent the day doing his best Jimmah Clausen impression and Tressel gave up on anything not totally predictable as soon as he got a two-score lead, Michigan did an okay job on Chris Wells aside from a 62-yard touchdown jaunt and several other trips into the secondary.

Goddammit.

Key Matchup: Uh... Tebow versus cowering.

Pass Defense vs. Florida

This has been a pleasant surprise. Morgan Trent matured into a respectable corner and Donovan Warren has turned out to be worthy of his recruiting hype. Brandon Harrison had a fine year as the teams nickelback and even if the safeties weren't great they were fairly competent. A soft schedule helped, but Michigan still finished the year 13th in pass efficiency defense.

Problem: checking Florida's passing efficiency reveals a big shiny #1. Tebow is not just a runner but an excellent passer; his ability to be a one-man play action only heightens his crazy ninja football skils. Harvin is a terror here, too; three other Florida receivers have more than thirty catches. This is an advanced, diverse, and threatening pass offense that plays off the Florida run game to excellent effect. Maybe Michigan could find a weakness here if they took away said run game -- Florida is even more run-heavy than Michigan, rushing the ball on 58% of their snaps -- but that is extremely unlikely to happen.

Key Matchup: Trent/Warren on Harvin? Hard to pick out anything in particular here, as Brandon Graham stopped being a dominant pass rusher once teams started running at him constantly and there is no #1 threat for Michigan to shut down amongst the panoply of Florida wideouts.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Henne looks un-improved.
  
• The team looks listless. (IE: the team looks like it's looked most of the year.)
  
• Mallett transfers at halftime.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Uh...
  
• Well...
  
• We did hire Rich Rodriguez. And they'll probably talk about that. Cackle then.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Chrisanti Edwells, +1 for Yeah, We're Still Frickin' Gimpy, +1 for Not A Virtual Road Game, An Actual Road Game, +1 for And No One Cares, I Bet This Extends To The Players, +1 for Real Chance of Tennessee Replay).

Desperate need to win level: 2 out of 10. (Baseline 5, -3 for Who Cares?, -1 for I'd Rather Watch The 2005 Sugar Bowl, -1 for This Has No Bearing On The Future, +1 for I'd Like To See Hart Win Something, Anything, +1 for SEC Fans Are So Annoying)

Loss will cause me to... UFR WVU games.

Win will cause me to... UFR WVU games.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
We lose bad. This team has been disjointed and disinterested most of the year, and now they know they're in this bowl they don't deserve to be in against a team that's probably a lot better than them; the coaching staff is getting replaced wholesale, to boot.

And we're playing some sort of awful hybrid Michigan kryptonite, and it's a 100% road game, and it appears that one or both of Hart/Henne will not be 100%. Woo! Shoot me.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• 4 Michigan fans attend.
  
• They're pretty pissed off.
  
• Florida, 35-17.
  

Preview: Ohio State

Run Offense vs. Ohio State

Mike Hart's high ankle sprain has lingered since halftime of the Purdue game; Hart's only appearance since consisted of 15 carries against Michigan State. Those carries gained 115 yards, though two carries and one fluke fumble recovery comprised most of that amongst twelve carries of bupkis. Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown did well in extended action against Illinois and, for what little it's worth, Minnesota but have struggled badly the last two weeks against previously substandard run defenses.

Hart's health remains a question. I have no idea where Scouts, Inc., is hearing this, but they say things($) that make me want to find my security blanket and set it on fire:

The statuses of Michigan RB Mike Hart and QB Chad Henne are uncertain. From what we are hearing, Henne is likely to play but Hart's outlook is far less optomistic. [sic!]

Normally anything claiming someone's injury outlook is not "optomistic" could be dismissed, but this is the WWL and all. I have heard nothing either way.

I don't buy it, though. Hart can't be any more injured than he was against Michigan State and he was gimpy but okay to play about half of that game; in Hart's final Ohio State game he'll have to shatter his tibia to come out. He'll start; there is the chance he re-aggravates the injury and is forced to come out.

Meanwhile, the Ohio State run defense enters the game much like the did a year ago: statistically terrifying (4th nationally) but probably softer than the numbers indicate. As Tom Orr mentioned yesterday, Rodney Kinlaw had an excellent, if foreshortened, day against Ohio State. Illinois just got done torching the Buckeyes, though that might not be particularly relevant given Michigan's lack of a zone read. On the other hand, Wisconsin and Michigan State were shut down almost entirely.

Which will it be? It's hard to tell. Michigan's run game has proven predictable and incapable of taking advantage of weak or undersized defensive tackles. Without a consistently effective counter or a play action option other than waggle, which goes for a first down three or four times a game but has shown no big play potential in two years as Michigan's primary counterpunch, opposing defenders have been free to sell out on the zone stretch. Heavy slanting plus dodgy play from the interior line, especially whoever the rotating right guard is, has put Michigan into long yardage situations with frequency.

If past Ohio State games are any indication, this should change. Michigan always brings out a bag of plays that play off the tendencies Michigan has established in the 11 previous games. The result is usually a surprisingly effective offense. Even without Hart this is unlikely to be as bad as the past couple games; part of the reason Michigan is so infuriating during the season is because they believe Ohio State can't see the world's most obvious "gotcha!" coming; the gotcha is unlikely to work but the sheer diversity of the offense at full speed will improve matters.

Ohio State fans claim their defensive tackles have been a liability and Laurinaitis is not the baby-eating viking Musberger makes him out to be; I tend to believe them. If Hart plays Michigan should move the ball in a fashion similar to what they did last year. Yes, Michigan's interior line is softer, but so is the interior of the Ohio State defense; lining Vernon Gholston up against Steve Schilling also means lining a freshman up against Jake Long.

The projection here:

• Michigan shows more creativity in its rushing attack, slicing open excessively aggressive OSU defenses several times.
• Hart plays and does well; his backups spot him periodically.
• Michigan averages around 4 or 4.5 YPC.
  

Key Matchup: Mike Hart versus His Traitorous Ankle. I should have an actual matchup for the Ohio State game, but nothing will impact Michigan's run game more than the status of Hart's gimpy wheel.

Pass Offense vs. Ohio State

This preview assumes that Chad Henne will play; if he does not please substitute "HEAD FOR THE HILLS! ONLY THE STRONG WILL SURVIVE!" for the text in this space.

That clear, we can proceed. Much like last year, Ohio State enters the game with some terrifying pass defense numbers: sixth in efficiency, second in yardage, and fifth in sacks. Meanwhile, Michigan limps into The Game with completely pedestrian numbers, 65th in yardage and 60th in efficiency terms. Statwise, this is a blowout.

However, mitigating factors abound, most notably the frequent use of freshman Ryan Mallett when Henne has been injured. Mallet's completing a Juice-esque 43% of his passes and has seven touchdowns to five interceptions, enough to seriously harsh any team's passer efficiency. Henne has been much better, completing 61% and averaging a respectable 7.3 yards per attempt. If he is healthy and well-protected he'll be by far the best quarterback Ohio State has opposed this year. Those are big ifs, though.

Is he healthy? Yes, no, sorta, maybe. Henne injured his shoulder against Illinois, returning late to lead Michigan past the Illini, then missed the Minnesota game. When he returned against Michigan State he was wildly variable, starting off okay and settling into a deep funk Brady Leaf couldn't rival before slinging Michigan to a remarkable comeback victory. S'okay? Not so much. Against Wisconsin he threw five passes, two of them wildly errant, then headed to the bench. That's a definite red flag.

Michigan fans should hope the widely-circulating internet rumor that Henne's arm was numbed by a botched cortisone shot -- no doubt administered by the same guy who's coaching the kick coverage unit -- is true, as it would provide an explanation for his performance/absence other than "has family of squirrels comfortably living in separated shoulder socket". For what it's worth, I've heard said item from multiple sources and think it's true. So whatever happened against the Badgers is not representative of his health; our baseline should be Michigan State plus two weeks to heal. Unfortunately, even on Henne's last couple robot drives in that game his outs were looping and his other balls were tossed, not rifled. It's reasonable to assume he will be closer to 80% than 100% and will miss some throws he might make under normal circumstances.

Will he get protected? Freshman defensive tackle Cameron Heyward should just take passing plays off against Jake Long, and the Buckeye defensive tackles are a shining weak point in an otherwise stout defense. No Buckeye defensive lineman other than Heyward has more than one measly sack...

...except that #*$@ing Gholston guy. Who has freaking ten. And will be playing against Steve Schilling. And may occasionally get slid over to Carson Butler on a blitz pickup. Which might happen frequently since OSU's starting linebackers have 11.5 sacks between them; various members of the secondary from Donald Washington to Anderson Russell also sport sacks here and there. Given 1) Michigan's severe difficulty with a bunch of stunting blitzes from UW and 2) Schilling's (and Butler's) consistent trouble with any above-average defensive end... Henne is likely to get hit frequently and sacked three or four times.

Meanwhile, Ohio State's secondary boast a likely first-round pick in Malcolm Jenkins, then three sophomores and a freshman nickelback. In this year of incompetent Big Ten quarterbacking, they have not been tested thoroughly, and with the pass rush Ohio State has they can reasonably lay back, prevent big plays, and wait for third and long.

Projection:

• Henne under siege much of the day; protection metric will be fortunate to clock in at 80%.
  
• Arrington gets open consistently; Manningham burns the occasionally jam-happy Jenkins once or twice.
• Who knows if Henne takes the opportunity? I lean towards no.

Key Matchup: Schilling versus Gholston. I've been on this all week.

Run Defense vs. Ohio State

I'm looking for a way this won't be ugly and can't find one. Chris Wells is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and mostly skipped one of Ohio State's cupcake games, that against Kent State. A violent, pounding runner, -- think Tony Hunt on steroids* -- Wells would normally be a good matchup for Michigan, which has historically beaten between the tackles runners into submission. But anyone who's observed a game from The Horror onward knows this is not the sort of interior run defense normally associated with Michigan football.

Sugarplum dreams that Michigan's problems were strictly spread/zone-read based dissolved in the second half against Michigan State and all of the Wisconsin game; in retrospect those hopes were more fanciful than they seemed. Michigan's problem, outside of Shawn Crable occasionally crashing down and losing contain, was rarely an inability to close down an outside run or find an option guy. Usually it was just the fact that anyone running up the gut wasn't tackled until he'd picked up three to eight yards.

The reasons for this are multitude: Brandon Graham is unsound against the run so far this year; the backups on the defensive line are not ready to play yet; Will Johnson is just okay. But the main flashing reason is simple: the Michigan linebackers suck. Senior Chris Graham is average at best, incapable of filling a hole when he has to take on a blocker and rarely able to get his stubby arms disengaged to tackle. Add in a mental mistake or three a game and one hideously blown coverage you probably shouldn't have asked him to attempt in the first place and there you go. Meanwhile, freshman Obi Ezeh took over for Johnny Thompson midseason and has looked like a freshman: hesitant. He may have potential but at the moment he is distinctly below average.

Terrance Taylor has been a consistently excellent performer in the middle and Jamar Adams has come up to fill capably several times, but the numbers don't lie. Wells is not likely to be tackled near the line of scrimmage frequently, and Ohio State should put together a number of grinding drives.

Projections:

• Wells runs 40 times for 200 yards.
• Goddammit.
  

Key Matchup: Will Johnson versus Barton, Cordle, etc. Taylor will do his thing, I believe. If Johnson can have a great day -- like, an excellent day, a miraculous day, the best day of his career -- Wells can get off kilter in the backfield and even our linebackers can converge. Johnson's shown the potential to do this; consistency has been lacking.

*(Not literally. Okay, probably not literally.)

Pass Defense vs. Ohio State

OSU will look upon its pass offense as a way to keep excessive heat off Wells, convert third and longs, and pop a big play or two; Todd Boeckman is unlikely to exceed 25 throws unless something seriously weird happens.

We can split those throws into two categories. The first category: oh God, play action. Boeckman's shown both a flair for the deep ball and an inadvisable tendency to display said flair into double coverage. Given Michigan will be virtually forced to sell out on Beanie Wells, Boeckman will have an opportunity or two to hook up with someone named Brian (or, I guess, Ray) for a long touchdown. Morgan Trent's gotten beaten deep a few times this year; Donovan Warren remains but a freshman; Jamar Adams will probably be within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Michigan's defensive line has gotten a ton of pressure on quarterbacks when allowed to pin back the ol' ears and go get 'em, but when forced to maintain run responsibilities they've allowed Tyler Donovan and Brian Hoyer scads of time.

Ohio State will have a number of opportunities to stick a dagger in Michigan on first and ten. The fate of those opportunities will have a major bearing on the game's outcome. (Uh... duh. Sorry.)

On the other side of things we have the obvious passing down, which figures to be a regretfully infrequent visitor tomorrow. The flip side of Michigan's struggles to get to the quarterback when the threat of the run is present has been a relentless feast upon anyone Michigan knows will be throwing the ball.

This should be an advantage for Michigan. Once the Michigan secondary booted Stevie Brown to the bench and Johnny Sears from the team, the haze lifted from their eyes and they started playing quite well. Boeckman is a first year starter, the Michigan secondary has been between good and excellent since the post-apocalyptic Oregon game, and Ohio State doesn't have the horses at TE or WR to force Chris Graham into the really awkward situations he faced last year against Ohio State and last week against Travis Beckum. It's never good to get in obvious throwing downs; here it will be much worse than normal.

Projections:

• One bomb to Robiskie.
• Few sacks or even actual pressure as Michigan struggles to control Wells.
• Boeckman makes a couple major mistakes.
  

Key Matchup: Shawn Crable versus Alex Boone. If anyone on Michigan's team has southern speed, it's Crable.

Special Teams

Something has to hold in this titanic kick return battle! Ohio State is 119th in returns! Michigan is 95th in opponent kick return average! This will be like watching Notre Dame play itself! The glory!

In other departments, it's more of the same for Ohio State: excellent kicker (Ryan Pretorious is 17/21), outstanding punting and punt coverage (14th in net average), and a white guy who can jet on punt returns (Brian Hartline has a 90-yard touchdown this year). The punt returning is actually mediocre overall, for the record. Ohio State should be solid.

Michigan, OTOH, has awful kick returns (109th), bad punt returns (73rd), mediocre punting (Zoltan has dropped off the face of the earth the past two weeks; Michigan sits at 56th nationally), and the aforementioned terrible kick coverage. But, hey, Kicking Competency Lopata is perfect on a bunch of shortish field goals. So not everything about Michigan special teams points to a coaching staff in disarray. Just all of it except the kicker.

Key Matchup: Zoltan versus Dude, Like, What Happened? Ohio State figures to win special teams solidly unless Zoltan returns to his excellent early-season form.

Intangibles

Yes. A sweatervest kitten. Sort of.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Hart looks gimpy. Obvs.
• Michigan doesn't have a lot of clever stuff hidden for this game.
• The run defense looks like it has the last 1.5 games.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Henne's arm looks limber and ready to go.
  
• The Ohio State defensive tackles look pretty useless.
  
• Boeckman looks implod-y.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Our Weaknesses Play Into Their Stregths, +1 for Our Stars Are Not 100%, +1 for They're Just Better Coached, +1 for Even Zoltan's Folding, +1 for Unfortunately, I Have A Long Term Memory).

Desperate need to win level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +5 for Duh)

Loss will cause me to... write "yes, but" Carr era obit.

Win will cause me to... write "yes" Carr era obit.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Ohio State certainly doesn't appear to be rebuilding, and Michigan certainly doesn't appear to be reaching anything approximating an apex. This is not the script I signed up for at the beginning of the year.

Anyone who read the VEQ knows the things I think this game will turn on: Wells versus a mediocre-at-best run defense and Schilling and Butler versus Gholston and extensive Ohio State blitzing. These look to be huge advantages for Ohio State, and Michigan does not have an equivalent. Maybe if Henne is healthy, or at least healthy-ish, he and the talented Michigan receivers can exploit a youthful OSU secondary that hasn't faced many tests this year. Maybe Hart can drive Michigan to victory on a busted ankle. Maybe. But I don't think so.

Football is weird and we are obviously not as crappy relative to OSU as the stats suggest -- Henne, Hart, etc -- but Michigan's weaknesses line up against OSU's strengths in a terribly unfortunate way.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• I've already provided plenty of predictions specific enough to look dumb later.
  
• So leave me be.
  
• Ohio State, 27-20.
  

Preview: Wisconsin

Run Offense vs. Wisconsin

As noted in VEQ, the Wisconsin run defense is probably the most disappointing phase in the conference. The Badgers, so good a year ago, are an ugly 58th nationally and eighth in the Big Ten. Relevant opponents:

Player	No	Net	TD	Avg	Long
Javon Ringer	10	145	0	14.5	70
Jehuu Caulcrick	17	73	2	4.3	22
Rodney Kinlaw	23	115	1	5	19
Evan Royster	8	68	1	8.5	19
Chris Wells	21	169	3	8	31
Marcus Thigpen	11	70	0	6.4	19
Rashard Mendenhall	19	160	2	8.4	32
Isiah Williams	14	92	0	6.6	24
Albert Young	10	33	0	3.3	6
Damian Sims	7	27	0	3.9	22

Every back in the Big Ten not playing for Iowa has done somewhere between 4.3 and 14.5 YPC, and a large number of them have gone over 6 YPC. This is a really, really bad run defense, and now they're missing starting defensive tackle Jason Chapman.

A quick glance at the above table and Michigan's shiny-ish #25 run offense seem to imply this would be a field day for the Wolverines, but it probably won't. Mike DeBord's run-heavy playcalling -- 59% of Michigan plays are runs -- obscures a rushing offense that's actually fairly mediocre. Sheer quantity makes up for 4.3 YPC, a number far closer to average than the per-game totals suggest. Injuries to Mike Hart and various right guards have something to do with that, but Hart is still gimpy and whoever the right guard is will remain subpar; the issues that have stalled Michigan's offense in the past will be present against the Badgers.

Those issues were certainly in play against Michigan State, a to-date horrible run defense that virtually stonewalled Michigan. Mike Hart had two long runs, one of which sprung from a sick Hart juke on an unblocked linebacker in the backfield; other than that Michigan had virtually no ground game. 19 of Hart's 110 yards were credited to him on a Mallett fumble recovery; remove that and Michigan's other rushes averaged 1.3 yards per carry. Add the long runs back in and Michigan hit... yes, 4.3 YPC. This against a defense about as good as Wisconsin's against the run, which is to say "not at all."

If Bruce's diagnosis of Wisconsin's problems is correct -- and there's no reason to doubt that it is -- then misdirection has been a major cause of Wisconsin's troubles. Michigan's offense features little misdirection and is basically using the exact same scheme these exact same players held to Mike Hart's worst rushing output of last year.

Chapman's absence and the unreliability of the safeties should provide Michigan an advantage they didn't have last year, but this is going to be a slog.

Key Matchup: Mike Hart versus his ankle. Hart can make losses into game-breakers, as we saw last week in the first half. The efficacy of the Michigan run game increases dramatically when he's in the game.

Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin

The Michigan pass offense looks great on paper but languishes at #70 in the nation due to a combination of injuries and the aforementioned run-heavy playcalling. The receivers have been outstanding, near flawless except when Mario Manningham is called on to block or lay out for a ball. Everything else... not so much. Chad Henne and his separated shoulder swung wildly from good to awful to outstanding against Michigan State. The line's pass blocking has frequently been dubious.

Meanwhile, the Wisconsin pass defense Bruce Ciskie slaughtered in VEQ sits at a decently respectable 46th (in efficiency terms). They're 18th in yardage largely because the run defense has allowed opponents to end games with 20-something attempts. However, starting cornerback Allen Langford is out for the year, leaving a true freshman in the starting lineup and pushing a little-used backup into the nickel package. Other than Jack Ikegwuonu, this is suddenly a secondary adrift.

Given the dodginess of the UW safeties and the lack of depth at corner, there will be plenty of opportunities here for Michigan. Manningham will have Ikegwuonu dogging him all game, leaving Adrian Arrington alone on a freshman who, though he may be good, is unlikely to lock him down.

Key Matchup: Schilling and Carson Butler versus Shaugnessy, Casillas, and assorted other blitzers. Schilling had another week of trouble against a high quality pass rusher; Butler's blocks were frequently comical in their ineptness against Michigan State. If Henne is provided time Michigan should find Manningham downfield a couple times.

Run Defense vs. Wisconsin

Last week's opening paragraph can be re-applied:

Unfortunately, you could take the damning text in the "Run Offense" section above and reapply it to Michigan's run defense, albeit with a significant reduction in ferocity if you wish to retain credibility. Like MSU, a bunch of sacks has obscured the true quality of the run defense. In Michigan State's case the quality is "atrocious"; in Michigan's it's merely mediocre.

After throttling the Spartans in the first half, Michigan got pounded by Caulcrick and Michigan State in the second half. The stats were acceptable -- 3.8 YPC for him and not much better for Ringer if you consider his reverse-field 70-yarder fluky -- but only just.

Sources close to the Wisconsin program indicate that PJ Hill is not likely to go, leaving the tailback job in the hands of sophomore Lance Smith and freshman Zach Brown. Smith's the better of the two backs and figures to see a significant majority of the carries. He's no pounder like Hill -- welcome news for Michigan linebackers -- but is more of a slasher reminiscent of Antonio Pittman or Carlos Brown. He's averaging 6.4 YPC, which would be a cause for concern if the vast majority of his carries weren't against the likes of the Citadel, Indiana, and Northern Illinois. Smith missed Wisconsin's games (he's suspended for road games after a preseason shoe tiff) against Penn State, Illinois, and Ohio State; Michigan is the first serious defense he's gone up against since the Iowa game. He did well against the Hawkeyes, albeit in limited time: 5 rushes, 37 yards. There's not enough data here to be sure of anything.

On the year, Wisconsin's rush offense is much like Michigan's: strained by overuse and potentially overrated on per-game statistics. Wisconsin is averaging just under 4.2 YPC despite playing a hideous nonconference schedule. The run game was adequate against Iowa and Illinois, but crushed by Penn State and Ohio State. It's an average run offense, especially with Hill out; it meets an average run defense. The results should be about average.

Key Matchup: Brandon Graham, Terrance Taylor, and Will Johnson versus the interior UW OL at the point of attack. Taylor, IMO, did a good job last game of holding up versus frequent double teams. Johnson and Graham not so much. With a similar offense on tap this week, Graham's improvement against the run will be important.

Pass Defense vs. Wisconsin

Injuries have struck the Badgers here as well. Not Particularly Inexplicable Pretty Good White Wide Receiver Luke Swan is out for the year, and the loss of Vanden Heuvel will hurt more in pass protection than run blocking according to Ciskie.

Tyler Donovan has been just okay in his single year as Wisconsin's starting quarterback. He's slightly mobile, slightly inaccurate, and has decent arm strength, slightly reminiscent of a Brooks Bollinger. In their way, Wisconsin QBs are as predictable as Michigan's: mini-me versions of the Lurch statues Michigan runs out. Donovan won't be a surprise to anyone who's seen Wisconsin play before.

Tight end Travis Beckum remains Wisconsin's favorite receiving target; his 62 catches are almost triple those of the next active receiver on the roster. He will be an issue. With Swan out, true freshman Kyle Jefferson is Wisconsin's #1 receiver; Paul Hubbard has also just returned from injury. Both are tall, long-striding possession sorts; deep balls will likely be of the jump-ball variety.

Miscommunication got Devin Thomas behind the Michigan secondary a couple times against Michigan State, marking the first time since the post-apocalyptic Oregon game the Michigan secondary looked anything but solid. Of late they have gone up against erratic quarterbacks and generally won the day. Michigan's pass efficiency D is now a shocking 20th.

One concern for Michigan: when Michigan State ran play action Hoyer often had days to throw as the line tried desperately to shut down the guy without the ball. This might be less of a threat against a line that's been a revolving door against opposing pass rushers: Wisconsin is 100th in sacks allowed despite passing just 38% of the time. And their starting right tackle is out.

Wisconsin is without a true outside threat and has serious pass-blocking issues; Michigan is likely to do well against Tyler Donovan and company.

Key Matchup: Chris Graham covering Travis Beckum. Graham's alternated between totally blowing zone coverages and providing good-to-excellent man coverage of tight ends this year; he's the guy who will be tasked with following Wisconsin's favorite target around.

Special Teams

Kicker Taylor Melhaff is reliable, perhaps the Big Ten's best this year, but Wisconsin's punting and return games are mediocre at best.

Key Matchup: Kick coverage, argh!

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• For whatever reason the ground game remains mediocre even against a terrible run defense.
  
• Oh, no! It's Evil Henne!
• Beckum gets loose.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• The first-down playcalling is remotely balanced.
  
• The Wisconsin line is as sieve-like as their stats suggest.
  
• Hart is ungimpy.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5; -1 for They're Battered Everywhere, +1 for Yeah But Hart...?, +1 for I Have A Bad Feeling We Will Not Be Able To Exploit Their Weaknesses, +1 for They're Probably Better Than MSU And Look How That Turned Out).

Desperate need to win level: 6 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Bielema Is Kind Of Annoying Even When He Loses, +1 for Yes, There's A Big Difference Between 9-3 and 8-4 (Or 10-2 and 9-3), -1 for But Really This Season Is The OSU Game)

Loss will cause me to... accept that we're going down to OSU again.

Win will cause me to... PREPARE FOR THE HURRICANE, BUCKEYES!

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
A totally healthy Wisconsin would be a serious threat, but a Badger team missing five starters and replacing them all with underclassmen is a significantly less imposing opponent.

Wisconsin's run game should be decently effective. There are enough problems on the Michigan side of things for the Badger to bash out first downs here and there. But the Wisconsin offensive line can't pass block. There's no other way to read the stats. Donovan's only thrown 279 passes this year and opponents have 29 sacks. Almost 10% of the time Donovan drops back to pass he ends up on the turf, to say nothing of hurries and forced scrambles. It's somewhat miraculous that the Wisconsin pass offense is as efficient as it is. Meanwhile, Michigan consistently terrorized opposing quarterbacks until it started worrying about Michigan State's run game. Donovan is unlikely to have much time.

Offensively, Wisconsin's run defense will probably have a brief, frustrating renaissance in which they will reach mediocrity. The eye-popping 6 and 8 YPC days for most backs around the Big Ten are not likely to recur, but 4.3 to 5 should be doable. This would still allow Hart to have a 100 yard day assuming he plays the whole game. Even if that's not likely to be a good assumption the problems with the Wisconsin run defense are so extensive that the Michigan backups will be fine. Henne, if given time, will find open receivers, and Michigan will have a typical offensive day.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Michigan racks up five sacks.
  
• Hart gets 15 carries.
  
• Michigan, 28-20.
  

Preview: Michigan State

Alan Weymouth on Minnesota and MSU:

We won again, behind a true frosh at QB and behind a OL that remains in constant flux. It took a while for the offense to get going, but once the OLs decided to have at Minnesota, and our backs started running a little harder AND we negotiated our way through our early mistakes, we got the result we thought we'd get. Minnesota's defense was slow... very slow. Shouldn't have been that difficult, and wouldn't have been with Henne and Hart.

Defensively, aside from getting gashed early by the zoneread, we played pretty darn well. Only gave up 3 with a gift from the O. 'Backer fill still a problem on those Zone Reads..plus, DLs needing to get off blocks.

MSU: Offense is pretty good. Among the top 5 in the Big 10. Better balance than Purdue. I'd put them on a par with Penn State perhaps. Ringer is the real key. We can't let them get Ringer untracked and hurting us, and I GUARANTEE that MSU will show us 3 wide, with FB or HB and run a lot of ISO right at our LB corp. If we control Ringer, we control this game defensively. Hoyer is okay...WR group is okay. Thomas reminds me of Arrington a bit, though not quite as tall. He's the WR threat.

MSU's offensive line is very vulnerable in pass pro. The right side especially, as both Miller and Martin don't move their feet very well. They struggle to keep a pedestrian Iowa team off the QB last week. The left side isn't much better though. We can have a lot of fun against this team, if we can stuff the running game. Caulcrick doesn't scare me at all ...a big bruising back who they use at the goal line and in short yardage.

Defense is not very good against the run or the pass. Iowa's offense was pathetic. I mean really, really bad. The worst in the Big 10 by a long shot. As one dimensional as Iowa was, Sparty couldn't keep the run game bottled up. Henne and Hart should have a field day against this crew. They love to stunt their two DEs, so picking this stuff up will be key. Can't have mental breakdowns here. Iowa had guys open a lot against MSU, but Christensen couldn't hit them...or found a DE in his face a lot. Iowa went to the zone run game, and really got after those two DEs on cut backs. Look for us to do the same...plus, we'll probably see some of that TE across the formation with the backside handoff we saw against Oregon.

As usual in this game, we'll have to weather the initial Sparty emotion. They'll come out all jacked-up trying to get bowl eligible. Coaching staff will have to use that against them with draws and screens..and make sure we don't give them cheap points. Get Manningham loose early. I suspect they'll do their best to take way Mario, but we've got way too many weapons to stop. Look for Butler to get loose too.

I'd like to see more McAvoy at RG this week, and less Ciulla. Ciulla doesn't have near the agility that McAvoy does. Wish Schilling would accept the move to guard..but doesn't look like he will.

Run Offense vs. Michigan State

First, Mike Hart's status: he has a high ankle sprain of unknown severity and rumors have been flying left and right about his availability all week. I have nothing solid; I do believe he will play given the quotes he offhandedly gave the Daily whilst walking off the field after the Minnesota game.

Will it matter? Maybe not. I'm not sure how Michigan State currently boasts the #38 rushing defense in the country, because, uh...

Player	Car	Yards	TDs	Average	Long
LeSean McCoy	25	172	1	6.9	64
James Aldridge	18	104	0	5.8	43
P.J. Hill	34	155	2	4.6	22
Chris Wells	31	221	1	7.1	47
Albert Young	34	179	2	5.3	29

By any reasonable measure, they were completely full of fail against everyone except Indiana and Omar Conteh, Backup of Northwestern. I mean, seriously, Michigan State lost a game in which Jake Christensen was 5 of 15 for 53 yards. And they gave up 100 yards to a Notre Dame running back. Hell, Michigan State has given up 42% of Notre Dame's net rushing yards on the year, and that was with 32 yards in sacks!

So please ignore the kindly statistics: this is an awful run defense and Michigan should crush it no matter who's running the ball. It would certainly be nice if it was Hart, but over the past couple weeks Brown and Minor have proven they can ramble for large quantities of yards against defenses of BB gun caliber.

Key Matchup: Boren/Kraus/Ciulla/MacAvoy versus Reach/Scoop Blocks. The MSU linebackers are really bad and will provide little opposition if Michigan can just execute those tough blocks where you end up chasing DTs who lined up playside of you. Boren did a great job several times against Minnesota, Rotating Right Guard not so much.

Pass Offense vs. Minnesota

Yeah, if the MSU run defense is bad, uh...

• Todd Boeckman, OSU, 15/23, 193 yards, 8.5 yards per attempt
• Kellen Lewis, IU, 13/19, 171 yards, 9.0 yards per attempt
• CJ Bacher, 38/48, 520 yards, 10.6 yards per attempt
• Tyler Donovan, Wisc, 17/24, 247 yards, 10.3 yards per attempt

...the MSU pass defense may as well be sporting Jaren Hayes.

Christensen, as mentioned, was clubbed to death. The other QBs MSU has faced: Jimmah Clausen, true freshman Kevan Smith at Pitt, and whoever's playing at UAB and BG these days. There is a clear grouping here: the resolutely awful and those who have shredded the State secondary.

The pass numbers do conceal one salutary aspect of the State defense: sacks. As mentioned, MSU is sixth nationally in sack yardage, and this isn't all because of the nonconference schedule. (It is, however, partly because of it: 21 of MSU's 32 sacks came against their candy nonconference schedule; against conference opponents MSU is averaging a respectable-but-not-horrifying 2.2 a game.) Jonal Saint-Dic, hilariously dubbed "The Sackmaster" by his coaches, is sixth in the country with nine. Michigan, meanwhile, is average at conceding sacks (51st nationally at 1.67 per game).

If Henne plays (and is not unduly affected by his shoulder injury), this will be a massacre on a par with the bullets above. The Michigan line is better than anyone up there save Ohio State; the Michigan receivers are way, way better than anyone up there as long as Manningham retains the form he's come into over the past few weeks.

Mallett, on the other hand, is a dodgier proposition. Free touchdowns and screens winged to Tacopants -- Tacopants don't do screens -- created an uncomfortable first half against the worst team in the conference; against Michigan State they might create a loss. The best prescription might be a steady diet of bombs. Mallett's unlikely to go 5/5 on them, but a few should hit home and the downside on them is low. As long as his completion percentages on 40 yard passes and 0 yard passes remain the same, bombs away. A Moeller-style offense where the ground game pounds ahead and the killshot comes from above would squeeze out a decent number of points.

Who will it be? Again, I have to plead ignorance. I have heard both things from the grapevine. I honestly don't know; I think Henne is more likely to be out than Hart, especially given Angelique Chengelis' public airing of a belief you'd see "a lot of Mallett." If you put a gun to my head, I would say Mallett starts. Then I would be like "dude, I think you should calm down." [UPDATE: Now if you put a gun to my head, I believe Henne starts. WOOOOOOO internet rumors! -ed]

One serious concern: Steve Schilling's pass protection. The freshman right tackle has been responsible for most of the pressure getting through to Michigan quarterbacks the past few weeks, and Michigan State's defensive ends will pose a stiff (ha!) test.

Key Matchup: Schilling versus Saint-Dic The Sackmaster. Obvs. Time for Michigan quarterbacks will yield many yards.

Run Defense vs. Michigan State

Unfortunately, you could take the damning text in the "Run Offense" section above and reapply it to Michigan's run defense, albeit with a significant reduction in ferocity if you wish to retain credibility. Like MSU, a bunch of sacks has obscured the true quality of the run defense. In Michigan State's case the quality is "atrocious"; in Michigan's it's merely mediocre.

Michigan, so used to the zone read by now, will have to change gears and take on the first traditional rushing attack they've opposed since Penn State and, if you reasonably discount Notre Dame as an actual threat, only the second they've faced all year. There is surprisingly little data to be had against "conventional" offenses, as they now defy convention. The Penn State numbers:

#	Player	No	Net	TD	Avg	Long
2	Derrick Williams	1	6	0	6	6
14	Anthony Morelli	4	-9	0	-2.3	3
20	Rodney Kinlaw	12	69	0	5.8	38
22	Evan Royster	1	1	0	1	1
33	Austin Scott	9	35	0	3.9	19
34	Matt Hahn	1	1	0	1	1
198	Team	1	-2	0	-2	0
	Totals	29	101	0	3.4

A replica of those -- one long run from Kinlaw, one twenty-yarder from Scott, and 2.3 YPC otherwise* -- would surely result in a twenty-point win. That seems unlikely given the quality of the Michigan State backs and the troubles Michigan has had to date up the middle.

Meanwhile, Michigan State ran over Indiana, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame before getting crushed by Ohio State (59 yards on 28 carries) and stalemated by Iowa (148 yards by the tailbacks but on 42 carries, 3.5 per). Jehuu Caulcrick is the short-yardage battering ram and all around YPC killer; Javon Ringer is the one who's actually good. To date the pair have come close to splitting carries, which is either evidence of a lot of third and short or certified insanity on the part of Michigan State coaches: Ringer averages 6.3 YPC but is only getting 19 carries a game.

This will be difficult, especially with Michigan fully in zone read mode, but in the limited time Terrance Taylor has had against traditional run attacks he has been disruptive; a steady enough diet of 0 yard runs should keep Michigan State from pounding its way down the field. Ringer is a serious threat to break a long one, however, and an Iowa-like performance would be a win.

*(not counting Morelli carries.)

Key Matchup: The Usual: Michigan linebackers versus hesitancy, fullback blocks, misdirection, and inability to get off their blocks. (Yeah, I didn't even bother changing this for this game.)

Pass Defense vs. Michigan State

To look at Brian Hoyer's stats is to disbelieve in the power of statistics. Whenever Michigan State has flicked through my consciousness this year, he's been winging things wide and looking generally horrible. The stats, however, say otherwise.

Michigan State is a one-receiver sort of team this year: JUCO transfer Devin Thomas has 51 catches and almost 1000 yards, but the next guy on the list is Ringer with 28 catches. True freshman Mark Dell, sophomore Deon Curry, and tight end Kellen Davis have totals in the mid-teens. Davis could be a problem on play action, and Dell/Curry are likely to pick up a couple possession catches, but the mission is clear: stop Thomas.

Michigan doesn't have a corner lockdown enough to bother with a straight matchup, but both starters have been very good this year and freshman Donovan Warren is rapidly maturing into one of the Big Ten's better corners, always in the hip pocket of his assigned covers unless he's blown the coverage and is busy giving up an easy 30 yard touchdown. Freshmen will be freshmen. Meanwhile, Morgan Trent has gone from liability to strength and nickelback Brandon Harrison has jumped all sort of slot routes this year.

And then there is the pass rush. Michigan is just four sacks behind Michigan State in this category and has consistently gotten to quarterbacks unless they were terrified of losing containment, -- Illinois featured lots of time for Williams and McGee, not that it mattered; Oregon not so much -- something that does not figure to be an issue against Brian Hoyer. Michigan will tee off in third and long. The results will be gory.

Key Matchup: Warren and Trent versus Thomas. To win the game Michigan State needs 100 yards from Thomas; to stay in his pocket -- he's always the first read given the catch numbers -- and force Hoyer to come off him equals sack, sack, sack.

Special Teams

A secret reason why MSU kind of sucks, their special teams may be as bad as Michigan's. The first problem: horrible punting. Aaron Bates is 86th nationally with about 39 yards a kick; Michigan State compounds this by giving up around 7 yards a return and falling to 102nd in net punting. Punt returns are another sore spot: at 5.4 YPR, Michigan State is 108th. Zoltan should have full license to pull that Incandenza stuff this week after several games lofting unreturnable fair-catches.

Oddly, Michigan also appears to have an advantage in the kicking game. Kicking Competency Lopata is 8/8 on the year and hit a 42-yarder against Minnesota. He appears to be pretty good. Meanwhile, MSU's Brett Swenson has dropped off after a strong freshman year, currently just 10/16.

The one fly in the ointment: Michigan State's outstanding kick return teams are 2nd without a distorting touchdown return. Devin Thomas is remarkably consistent and good at these things; expect a lot of popups to the 30.

Key Matchup: Kick coverage versus Thomas. It's doubtful we see many long kicks, but if we do there's serious danger of a big return.

Intangibles

Yeah, lame that it's just a drawing, but clocks are so integral to this rivalry, such as it is.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Henne does not play, or is off because of injury.
  
• The issues against runs up the middle are not limited to the read option.
  
• Schilling can't handle Saint-Dick The Sackmaster.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Gashing lanes appear in the run game and MSU is forced to choose their poison.
  
• Taylor dominates.
  
• MSU's line is as shaky in real life as it is on paper.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Their Offensive Strength Points At Our Weakness, -1 for Their Defensive Strength Appears To Be Cowering, -1 for Hart... Returns! Probably, +1 for Henne... Does Not! Probably, -1 for Their Special Teams Are Worse Than Ours, +1 for This Would Be So Michigan State To Win).

Desperate need to win level: 8 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for It's State, And They Are Annoying When They Win, Or At Least I Think I Remember Them Being Annoying, +1 for This Locks Up A Shot At Pasadena, +1 for If Hart's Back And Has A Big Game And We Win The Heisman Thing Is Still A Possibility)

Loss will cause me to... install a countdown clock in my house to the next Michigan State game.

Win will cause me to... light a candle for Chad Henne's shoulder.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
This is the second spread this year I have completely failed to understand. The first: Michigan -7 versus Oregon. This one seems just as nonsensical but in the opposite direction. State's defense is a bunch of sacks and a bunch of crap, likely to fold in the face of Jake Long and Co no matter who is carrying the ball behind them. The secondary can't tackle or, apparently, cover. The Michigan State sackfest has been greatly muted by Big Ten competition. Despite the five wins there's hardly any evidence this team is any good at all.

Hoyer has good efficiency numbers that I don't believe given what I've seen of him, and Michigan State's sacks yielded combine with Michigan's sacks gained to paint a picture of one slow white dude running for his life most of the day. Third and long will be a near-automatic punt.

Getting the Spartans in third and long might be difficult, though. It's hard to get a feel for how the run game will go, since Michigan's last and only effort against a similar offense was against Penn State's prehistoric attack. (There were a number of carries for Illinois down near the UI endzone run from the I-formation. The results against these were highly encouraging.) Meanwhile, the zone read has consistently gashed Michigan up the middle. I expect one long Ringer run, a lot of ineffective pounding from Caulcrick, a lot of Terrance Taylor, and Michigan State drives that pick up a first down or three before the inevitable punt. They don't have the pass protection to move the ball consistently and will struggle to put up points without being provided a short field.

In the end, this is a mediocre conventional offense and a bad defense going up against Michigan. "Throw out the records" and all that, but, uh, don't. This shouldn't be close.

If Mallett plays, retract the above prediction of a blowout. The dropoff from Henne to the freshman is enormous and the result will be a lot of drives upon which Michigan stops itself; still, this is not a good Michigan State team and a loss is not likely even with the freshman in the game.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Hart plays.
  
• Henne... doesn't.
  
• Prediction One (With Henne, Hart): 35-10, Michigan.
• Prediction Two (Without Henne, Hart): 21-13, Michigan.
• Prediction Three(With Hart, Without Henne): 28-13, Michigan
  

Preview: Minnesota

First, Alan Weymouth on the last game and the upcoming one:

A really good win for us at Illinois, with Hart and Henne injured to varying degrees. The way the game began, I worried that our team might tank, they had every opportunity to do so, but continued to battle. I give the game ball this week to Ron English and the defensive staff, for keeping those guys together when it looked like it might get ugly.

Defensively, we still didn't do as good a job as I'd like in stopping the zone play up the gut. Our LBs are still struggling here. I didn't see anyone stop that play really well, until Johnny Thompson's third quarter slash and bash on 3rd down. Ezeh still responds to this one too slowly. Keep this in mind for the OSU game, we showed some vulnerability to the 3 WR set, with a FB and TB running ISO. Sweatervest will have that one in his back pocket for sure. I found it very interesting that Michigan kept six defenders in the box against many of the Illini run sets...like the above mentioned "I" formation, and the split-back, shotgun look that Illinois often runs the Zone Read from. They gashed us up the middle a lot with these looks, and we'll see it a lot over the next four weeks. MSU, Wisky and OSU will all attack us over and over again up the middle. I was very surprised that Illinois didn't keep after us there.

We played the option game very, very well and I thought Crable played decently at DE and kept his responsibility. The only instance I saw where he lost contain was the first TD, and I thought he got held a bit on that play (along with not exactly attacking the outside shoulder of the OT).

A great game from Brandon Harrison, who did a really good job on Benn. Harrison's tackling was crisp. The secondary in general played pretty well. I expected to see some open guys in the zone we ran, but they generally got their guy on the ground pretty quickly after the catch, and forced Illinois to execute well in the passing game.

To be really good against these Zone Read teams, we've got to shore up the middle of the defense. All in all though, I'd give the "D" an B++ for the game.

Offensively we struggled without Henne and our re-re-revamped offensive line didn't do anything for me this week. Ciulla, Boren and Schilling had some communication problems in pass pro on DT twists, and Schilling got smacked around a bit in this game. One thing to look for with the pass protection from Schilling is, he tends to turn and "run" with the DE instead of "sliding" without crossing his feet. If you slide, like guarding in basketball, it allows you to keep a firmer base so balance isn't as big an issue. When you "run" with the DE, you're generally asking for trouble. When I had a OL running instead of sliding, I always knew I had him dead to rights as there were multiple moves I could execute to get to the QB. Compare Long's technique to Schilling's. Again, I think strength is Schilling's problem. I much prefer the Long, Boren, Kraus, Schilling, Ortmann line to any I've seen.

We missed Hart the most in pass pro. Neither Brown or Minor is even close at this point. Both had their moments at RB, but neither really got it done like Hart in pass pro. I wish the Michigan staff would install some quick pitches to Brown to really make the oppositions LBs think. He's so fast, that a zone pitch play (like we used to run with Grady when he was healthy) would force the LBs to fly to the outside to keep him from getting to the corner, and allow for some nice cutback runs. Notice on one zone play, we actually cut the DT loose, because we knew that he couldn't get to Brown in time.

I think we'll see Mallett start this week against Minny. No need really to risk Henne. Hart will play, though I think he'll be limited to 15-20 carries (or 100 yards whichever comes first). [Don't know about this. -ed] Mallett's continued problems with the center snaps is disturbing at this point. I wish Michigan would just let him run the offense from the shotgun. Would be a nice change of pace and would help him get comfortable. The issue as I see it, is that he doesn't "ride" the C's butt with his hands, especially when the C has a tough block in the playside gap to make. It's probably not ALL Mallett's fault, but between a C who has never played the spot before, and a QB who hasn't taken many under the center snaps...well....

Look for 20 throws or so from Mallet..and alot of running from Hart, Minor and Brown.

Run Offense vs. Minnesota

It's difficult to overstate how bad the Minnesota defense is. So let's try some analogies.

If the Minnesota Defense was a presidential candidate:

(???)

If the Minnesota defense was an Atari game:


If the Minnesota Defense was an offense:



For seriouses, the Minnesota defense is approaching truly epic levels of suck. They are dead last in total yardage and 109th in scoring defense. But the rush defense is the strongest aspect of what defense they have -- see also "most disciplined Ron Zook teams" -- at a sunny 94th nationally. Heck, they only give up 5.2 yards per carry and held North Dakota State under 400 yards. I hear the North Dakota State team is comprised of actual bison, so that seems pretty good. This could be quite a battle.

Key Matchup: Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor versus falling over untouched in the backfield 30 times.

Actually... no. Down this road things like Ball State happen. Revising:

Key Matchup: Boren and Schilling versus penetration. Boren's gotten much better in recent weeks while Schilling seems to have regressed; throughout the year the two kids have been at fault for most of the missed blocks, though, and progress would be nice to see going into the closing stretch.

Pass Offense vs. Minnesota

The Gophers are no better here than they are against the run, currently 113th in pass efficiency defense and 119th -- dead last -- in pass yardage defense despite playing a comical parade of nonconference creampuffs. They've benched a senior cornerback in favor of a third true freshman in the secondary; this will be the worst secondary Michigan has faced by far.

Meanwhile on the defensive line, Willie Van De Steeg, 2006's lone bright spot with ten sacks, has been out or limited much of the season. His availability remains in doubt; even if he goes he will not be 100%. Without him, Minnesota has had no pass rush whatsoever. They have just six sacks in eight games. Any Minnesota player who lays a hand on a Michigan quarterback should be given warrant to celebrate like he's a Notre Dame quarterback completing a pass.

Much hinges on Henne's availability. He remains questionable with a shoulder separation; given Minnesota's general putridity Michigan is unlikely to risk his health. Expect Mallett and a maximum of 20% first down passes, many of those safe, as Michigan shuts down and tries to pound out a victory without getting anyone hurt or giving Minnesota life via interception.

Key Matchup: Mallett versus The Unbearable Boredom Of Repeated Handoffs.

Run Defense vs. Minnesota

On the other hand, the Gophers' offense has made an impressive transition from Glen Mason's grinding power game to one of those damn spread things. Minnesota is currently doing better on the ground this year (36th, 4.8 YPC) than they did last year (42nd, 4.3 YPC), although those numbers will slip considerably once they face the defenses of Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. (Well... maybe not Wisconsin.)

Running back Amir Pinnix is no Maroney or Barber but he's not bad, either. He's been limited in several games recently -- there was a four game stretch with at most five carries -- and has split time with Duane Bennett and Jay Thomas. A potential monkeywrench: Gopher QB Adam Weber has 401 rushing yards this year. He's averaging more than 10 carries a game as Minnesota uses him to exhaustion.No one back is crushing the competition, but each averages at least 4 YPC. It's a decent, if inept opponent fattened, rushing attack that attacks Michigan's traditional weaknesses.

Michigan, meanwhile, has struggled mightily against the zone read all year long. Though Rashard Mendenhall was held under 100 yards, that was only because Illinois limited to 18 carries. On those carries he picked up 85 yards and was rarely brought down anywhere near the line of scrimmage unless Illinois was pinned inside its five and lined up in a come-and-get-me power set. Michigan's linebackers continued their struggles. One bright spot was quarterback containment: save one 23-yard Juice Williams scramble when Michigan suckered freshman defensive tackle John Ferrara on the zone read, Illinois quarterbacks were reduced to handoffs and pitches. The option was contained; Mendenhall was the only real threat.

Key Matchup: The Usual: Michigan linebackers versus hesitancy, fullback blocks, misdirection, and inability to get off their blocks.

Pass Defense vs. Minnesota

Redshirt freshman Adam Weber has performed adequately, if not well, (58%, 6.6 YPA) thus far but for one niggling detail: boatloads of interceptions. Weber has 15 already against a wide selection of the worst defenses known to man. He a loose cannon at this point in his career, not particularly accurate or sane. Weber's YPA and sack numbers (Minnesota is 5th in the country) indicate a ton of screens, short passes, and three-step "drops" (scare quotes because Minnesota operates a shotgun spread), throws he should be more accurate on. General expectation: Curtis Painter last year.

You may recall enormous wide receiver Ernie Wheelwright, the brobdingnagian revelation as a freshman who never progressed despite looking like a walking blueprint of an NFL pro-bowler. He's gotten better and could be the target of a Patented Jeff Bowden Hopeful Downfield Jump Ball or three, but the #1 reciever for the Gophers is sophomore Eric Decker, well on his way towards IGWWR* status. (With the carnage at Iowa and the recent emergence of Decker and awesomely named Logan Payne, the question has to be asked: did Minnesota hijack the secret Des Moines lab where these guys are genetically engineered?) In the brief glimpses I've seen of Decker, he's basically Payne: sneaky fast, sure handed, and a heady hard working guy who has a mind for the game and just coincidentally happens to be white.

I repeat myself, but: since exiling Stevie Brown to the bench and Johnny Sears to a Cheech & Chong marathon, the Michigan secondary has emerged into a solid unit. Freshman Donovan Warren blew a coverage last week and linebackers jumping little flare routes opened up a number of underneath routes for Illinois wide receivers, but most things longer than a few yards were well covered. Meanwhile, Michigan is 12th nationally in sacks largely because of Shawn Crable and Brandon Graham. Minnesota won't provide many opportunities to add to that total. Solid tackling on short routes and properly reading screens will be key. Put Minnesota in third and long and it's punting time.

*(inexplicably great white wide receiver)

Key Matchup: Donovan Warren versus WR screens. Warren's been a dodgy tackler thus far. Minnesota will probably try to exploit this with their bubble screens.

Special Teams

Kickoff coverage could be frustrating again. Minnesota has a kick return touchdown from Jay Thomas, albeit one against Florida Atlantic, and is currently 18th in kick return average. (They do get to practice it an awful lot.)

Minnesota punter Justin Kucek kicks it deep (almost 44 per) but often outkicks his coverage. Michigan has no one capable of exploiting that; expect a number of 10-yard Greg Mathews returns. The Gophers have only attempted four field goals all year, missing half.

On the Michigan side of things, Zoltan The Inconceivable continues to hypnotize opponents into muffed punts and roughing the kicker penalties. He launched a 67-yarder with no return last week, and the only thing holding down his average are the many times he's been asked to drop balls inside the ten, something he does with consistency. Hail Zoltan.

KC Lopata might not be Mike "Ted" Nugent, but indicators are his initial might stand for Kicking Competency, something not found during the mercifully brief Gingell era. He's been all right on a series of short field goals.

Key Matchup: Michigan kick coverage versus Thomas, et al. It's been awful so far this year.

Intangibles

Twenty-four point spreads do not warrant kitten talismans.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Hart and Henne don't play... and neither do Carlos Brown, Brandon Minor, or Ryan Mallett. Or Jake Long. Or KC Lopata. Or Zoltan The Inconceivable.
  
• Michigan keeps getting gashed up the middle on the zone read.
  
• Every kick return ends up on the Michigan side of the field.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Michigan doesn't turn the ball over four times.
  
• Our linebackers start reading and reacting quicker.
  
• The Brown/Minor combo starts looking very doable for 2008.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 out of 10. (Baseline 5; -1 for Hey, They Lost To A I-AA Team, Too, +1 for Ack Spread Option, -1 for They're The Notre Dame Of Defense, -1 for No, Seriously, They Really Are That Bad, +1 for Complete Absence Of Vaunted Stars Is Likely, -1 for They Hired A Tight Ends Coach, -1 for The Notre Dame Of Defense, People).

Desperate need to win level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for This Would Be More Humiliating Than Appalachian State, +1 for I Am On Record Saying Firing Mason Is Really Stupid, +1 for The Jug(!), +1 for If We Lose To This Team We Are So Screwed For The Rest Of The Season, +1 for Oh God, The Kittens, The Horrible Kittens)

Loss will cause me to... look, I was in Phoenix visiting my grandmother. I couldn't have smeared anyone's car with goat feces, and I have no idea what you are insinuating. No, this isn't a bomb. Yes, it's red and composed of sticks and ticking. It's an egg timer. What?

Win will cause me to... WOOO SUCK IT MINNESOTA WOOO NOT SO HOT WHEN YOU'RE NOT PLAYING ON ICE, HOSERS!

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
It's not often a schedule featuring a I-AA team and Eastern Michigan offers up an opponent clearly worse than both, but this is it. The worst defense in the country keeps getting younger and more befuddled. Michigan could probably call out the play it's running before every snap and still pick up 5 YPC. Inexperience and error on the part of the backfield will probably submarine a drive or three; Minnesota might back into another stop or two. Michigan should go up and down the field otherwise.

Offensively, Minnesota actually has a chance to move the ball. Weber will carry it more frequently than either Illinois quarterback did, and given Michigan's general weakness against rushing quarterbacks -- one admirable job of containment does not overthrow years of problems -- there's a distinct possibility of two or three frustratingly competent drives from the Gophers, though a couple of them are likely to end in interceptions. Michigan's defense isn't as good as Ohio State's, but it's rapidly developing into something that's not far off. Some crumbs here and there but no real danger.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• No Hart, no Henne, no Manningham.
  
• No problem.
  
• 38-14, Michigan.
  

Preview: Illinois

First, Alan Weymouth on the last game and the upcoming one:

People saying this was our most complete game of the season are spot on. I also have to say, DeBord called a pretty darn good game on Saturday. Run game showed a few new wrinkles...not many, but enough to keep Purdue off balance. The thought the passing game was very, very sharp and the staff adjusted quite well here.

Our madeover right side of the offensive line performed pretty well. I didn't see any mental gaffes on run or pass blocking schemes to note. With DeBord keeping the Purdue defense off balance, we didn't see nearly as much penetration this week. Purdue's front four weren't all that great though. I've a few concerns about Ortmann being able to handle some of the better pass rushers in the league, but I don't think we'll see one until later. Ortmann tends to be a little too tall and can get off balance. Schilling should stay at guard. I really think Schilling only needs to develop better strength to become one of Michigan's better guards.

The good Henne showed up this weekend as well, and that had more to do with our offense putting up points than anything else. He made good reads and even better throws. I still don't like the jump-ball tosses, but at least Manningham battled for the ball this week.

Defensively, the front seven was at it's best this week. I've been hard on Chris Graham, but his performance against Purdue was his very best. He's still not a top-notch tackler, but he got his man on the ground this week and didn't overrun anything. He showed up in the middle of practically every Purdue WR screen, move around the blockers and often made the stop...just what we're looking for. Ezeh also played much more decisively. The secondary was solid against what I think will be the best set of WRs we'll see until OSU. Our defense has come along way over the last five weeks.

This Illinois game really scares me. Coach Carr mentions playing assignment football, and this is EXACTLY what has to happen this weekend, and it's not exactly the strong suit of some of our players. Crable and B.Graham in particular really worry me in this game, because they still tend to "freelance" rather than play their assignments. Crable busted the only zone read play that Purdue ran last week, and if he can't get his crap together against Illinois, we'll have some problems.

I've watched the Illini play twice. Williams is a pretty good runner, and has a big arm, but he isn't a particularly good thrower.I haven't seen much of McGee, save for a few running plays. Our defense HAS to keep this guy from running us to death and make him execute in the passing game. It is imperative that we shut down the run game..both the zone read and the option Looks that they will give us. We'll have to stay in some version of zone for most of this game to allow the DBs to help contain the option.

True zone reads and options will leave the DE unblocked and QB will read the DE to decide to keep or handoff/pitch. Our DEs have to play disciplined football, and not get "sucked in" to taking the RB on zone reads or being too aggressive in taking the QB on the options. It's generally better on option plays to "string out" the QB and allow pursuit to catch up and take the pitch man. We may see some actual "Veer" offense from Illinois this week as well..with two RBs that the QB uses as options. Our LBs also have to make good, quick reads and fill gaps on the Zone plays...and fly to the pitchman on options. We haven't been real disciplined here in the past either.

Offensively, our biggest barrier is playing on the road, and the possible loss of Hart. If Hart is out, our staff has to design some stuff that makes use of Brown's speed. Even if Hart plays, having someone like Brown as a change-of-pace back would be really nice. I think Illinois' defense is okay. Nothing about it really stood out. Seemed to be decently coached, but lacking any true playmaker. We should be able to put 30 on the board if all goes well. Defensively, I really think 21 points is a reasonable expectation. We're capable of holding them to less if we get our crap together. If we let Williams run all over the place...well...there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Run Offense vs. Illinois

Mike Hart's availability is in question, and even though Carlos Brown showed some speed and the ability to not fumble every other carry last week, losing Hart would be a hammer blow to the team. There is no replacement for him, whether it's in terms of leadership, ball security, tough yards after contact, or thumping blitz pickups against potential All-American linebackers.

Illinois, of course, features J Leman and some other guys as part of a decently stiff run defense currently 27th in the country. A closer look shows they crushed Missouri and gave up slightly more than 4 YPC to the tailbacks of Penn State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. No long runs distorted those stats; neither did quarterback sacks factor in. This is a better than average, but not great, run defense.

One thing to look for: in this morning's VEQ Iowa blogger Oops Pow Surprise indicated that the Illinois defensive tackles were two-gap sorts of guys keyed on occupying blockers and allowing J Leman and company to flow to the ball unimpeded. That won't work against Michigan's stretch plays, as on them the very idea of a double is forgone for a sure attempt at the second level. Illinois will have to adapt its strategy to cope. These are untested waters and there's a chance the Illini DTs find themselves lumberingly ineffective, paving the way for an unexpectedly robust Michigan ground attack.

If Brown plays, Michigan figures to go to a pass-first offense with Brown as a secondary option (at least... you'd imagine, right?); I would look for a lot of draws to get Brown in space and a lot of plays with a lead fullback to help cut down on his occasionally questionable vision. One more item to look for given Brown's sojourn as corner this spring and his iffy blocking against Purdue: the deployment of someone else in obvious passing downs. It might be Moundros. It might be Hart -- even if he can't cut he can pick up linebackers.

Key Matchup: Mike Hart versus Angry Michigan Running Back Hating God. In comparison, little else matters. We'll also throw in a bonus key matchup: Illinois DTs versus Their Ability To Penetrate. Michigan has struggled with quick (relatively) little bastards thus far.

Pass Offense vs. Illinois

Illinois is blitz-mad and seriously iffy elsewhere. Colin chips in observations from the Iowa game:

Jake Christiansen was clearly not that good, but shredded the Illinois pass defense any time his offensive line figured out their blocking schemes, which they are clearly not good at doing. They blitz all the time, presumably because they figure 6 and 7-man zones aren't going to do much better. Behind these blitzes they play soft zone, I'd guess cover 3. They do blitz with some ingenuity and they do have the athletes to get to the quarterback, but they can't usually get pressure with the front four without some kind of snafu up front.

Shooting Blue provides some encouraging numbers:

• Andrew Robinson, Syracuse - 17/26, 208 yards, 8 yards/attempt
• Kellen Lewis, Indiana - 26/51, 263 yards, 5.2 yards/attempt
• Anthony Morelli, Penn State - 21/38, 298 yards, 7.8 yards/attempt
• Tyler Donovan, Wisconsin - 27/49, 392 yards, 8 yards/attempt
• Jake Christensen, Iowa - 17/25, 182 yards, 7.3 yards/attempt

Yes, 4/5 games averaging 7.3+ YPA is an indication of some serious suck in your secondary, especially when quarterbacks from Penn State, Syracuse, and Iowa are featured. Chad Henne is way better than all these guys. The Michigan receivers are way better than everyone on those teams save James Hardy. Illinois' top corner is Vontae Davis, a freshman All-American a year ago but still just a sophomore; past Davis they've gotten little contribution
from an array of lightly recruited players.

Henne, meanwhile, has rebounded from an atrocious opening game and a half to pick apart secondaries in three consecutive games. He was nearly perfect against Purdue and is finally rounding into the form Michigan fans expected/hoped for going into the year. Obviously this is not a stable equilibrium yet -- there is always the chance for inexplicable regression given Henne's career to date -- but if there's an aberration in the last two years of Henne's career, stretching back to just before the 2005 Ohio State game, it's the poor play, not the good play.

Add in Mario Manningham's return to deep form, the emergence of Adrian Arrington as an all-around threat who can leap out of the stadium, and Greg Mathews establishing himself Avant 2.0, and there is a clear opportunity here to put up huge numbers here.

Key Matchup: Boren, Brown, and Butler versus Various Blitzers. Pick up the blitzes and there is no way -- no way -- Illinois covers Manningham, Arrington, and Mathews.

Run Defense vs. Purdue

Oh, the terrible danger. Illinois is basically the Appalachian State offense with an NFL-caliber running back and a faster, bigger quarterback. The Illini are eighth nationally in rushing offense, deploy the spread option to devastating effect, and are playing Michigan. Woe is very much a possibility.

Meanwhile, Michigan has recovered from its opening debacles to become a respectable defense, though the only spread option attack they've faced since was Northwestern's and the Wildcats racked up 300-some first half yards and sprung a 50-yard touchdown run from a slow backup running back.

The hope here is that the Appalachian State game was an anomaly borne of incredible arrogance on the part of the Michigan coaches -- the odd hopes we have -- and that Illinois won't be able to threaten the devastating passing game Oregon used to shred Michigan by air and land. Oh, and that the reinforcements on the defense will help it suck considerably less.

Expect a ton of zone from Michigan. It won't matter much if Michigan tips off its coverages like that because the Illinois receivers aside from Benn suck and so do the quarterbacks. If Illinois wishes to throw on first down, Michigan will welcome it.

Zone allows the cornerbacks to look into the backfield and react to the option. Iowa deployed its traditional 4-3 despite going up against 3 or 4 wide receivers much of the day; Michigan may choose to go with something similar, dropping Crable back to be a linebacker or, more likely, bringing in a full four-man defensive line and deploying Crable as a standup DE. Containment will be key: Crable has blown contain several times the past three weeks by collapsing on zone read fakes, allowing the quarterback to get outside of him. This cannot happen against Illinois.

Key Matchup: Chris Graham, Obi Ezeh, and Shawn Crable against Mental Implosion. As Alan says, option football is assignment football. Michigan has the athletes to keep up on the edges, but they are prone to mental breakdowns that will be deadly against Illinois.

Pass Defense vs. Illinois

Juice Williams is the worst quarterback Michigan will play this year unless his freshman backup Eddie McGee enters the game, in which case it'll be a close runoff between the two. Williams is completing 55% of his passes this year -- up from last year's incredible 39% -- but is averaging just 5.2 YPA and has five interceptions to five touchdowns. Every once in a while they'll run play action and try to hit Arrelious Benn deep, but other than that Illinois mostly passes only when they have to, and that poorly.

Meanwhile, the Michigan secondary has shaped up considerably since the post-apocalyptic Oregon game, with a major assist from Brandon Graham and a newly slavering defensive line. Michigan held down CJ Bacher and the suddenly unstoppable Northwestern offense, forcing a quartet of second-half turnovers, and completely destroyed Curtis Painter and Purdue. Neither of these teams is exactly... uh ... Kentucky (it's a weird year in college football), but then again neither is Illinois.

Michigan will probably sit back in a soft-ish zone much of the day and zone blitz heavily, attempting to confuse whoever's chucking ducks into interceptions and bad reads. Benn will get several shots at long receptions; Michigan will be playing off; the big danger is that the powerful Benn pulls a Braylon on one of the jump balls hurled skyward.

Key Matchup: Morgan Trent versus Arrelious Benn. Historically, Trent has been very difficult to beat deep. If Michigan can rely on him to deal with Benn without a safety bracket, things get much easier up front.

Special Teams

Benn returns kicks for Illinois; the winning margin against Penn State was a kickoff return score. Meanwhile, Michigan's kick coverage has been atrocious and its attempts at mitigating said atrocity have been equally atrocious. With opponents generally starting at the 30 or beyond and a dangerous returner to deal with, expect popups and squibs. Heck, kicking it directly OOB doesn't seem like such a bad deal these days.

Kyle Hudson is averaging under 8 yards per punt return and is no threat to do anything except catch a punt and run into a nearby player.

Illinois punter Anthony Santella sucks; Illinois is 98th nationally in gross yards an 111th in net. Greg Mathews is unlikely to get any return opportunities, as he'll usually be fair-catching 34 yarders. Kicker Jason Reda is a perfect 9 for 9 on the year.

Key Matchup: Kick coverage versus Benn. Or kick coverage versus upbacks.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Hart's on the sideline, obviously.
  
• Our defensive tackles are as ineffective as they were in the first two games.
  
• Mendenhall gives you flashbacks to Jonathan Stewart.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Illinois blitzes don't get there.
  
• Illinois is consistently in second and long.
  
• Henne is on.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 8 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Ack Spread Option, +1 for Ack Ack Run-Heavy Spread Option, +1 for Oh, God, What About Hart, +1 for And It's A Road Night Game, -1 for They Throw Like Jimmah).

Desperate need to win level: 8 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Win This And We Play OSU For The Rose Bowl, Basically, +1 for Hart Can Win The Heisman If That Happens, +1 for I Am Going And Don't Want To Ruin What Should Be A Nice Weekend)

Loss will cause me to... be not at all surprised that we got shredded by a spread option team.

Win will cause me to... consider going to Wisconsin. But probably not.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Two competing historical trends with Lloyd Carr teams are at war: 1) Michigan can't stop the option to save its life, especially if that option comes from a spread shotgun, and 2) one dimensional offenses die against Michigan. This is a defiantly one-dimensional spread option attack; I don't know what to do with this.

Michigan seems somewhere between Wisconsin's suddenly nonexistent run defense and Iowa's traditionally responsible, veteran unit and will probably cede yards in chunks but get enough stops to put Illinois in passing downs regularly. I figure Michigan gives up one or two big plays, allows one distressingly impressive touchdown drive, and otherwise gives up a first down here or there, maybe a push into field goal territory, but mostly forces punts. The Illinois passing game is just too awful to have sustained success against a team that is probably not going to get run over like it's Indiana.

On offense... urg. At this point I believe Hart will be considerably limited. I do have enough faith in the common sense of the Michigan coaches to take one look at the last scholarship running back on the roster, the Illinois secondary, and Manningham/Arrington/Mathews/Butler/Henne and decide that without Hart they will put the game on their senior quarterback. They did not do this in the awful first half against Northwestern because they did not have said senior quarterback; they faced a similar situation last year at Penn State -- also a night game -- and came out slinging. I believe they'll do this again, and have much more success against a team with a secondary much flimsier than Penn State 2006 and much more reliant on blitzing to get pressure. I do expect them to try out the stretch a few times early to see if those two-gap tackles can adapt; we are not likely to see a ton of running unless it's effective early.

The quarterback numbers above indicate Michigan will have success doing this. If Michigan picks up the blitzes effectively, they win comfortably.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Hart does play a bit, mostly on third downs as a blitz pickup guy.
  
• Henne busts 300 yards and hits a season-high in attempts.
  
• 31-21, Michigan.