Upon Further Review: Offense vs Illinois

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Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M10	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	-3	Brown	Zone left
Seven in the box against this three-wide look; Illinois in a base 4-3 set. We run zone left; Illinois blitzes right into it and gets a linebacker in the backfield instantly. Kind of looks like they knew exactly what was coming.
M7	2	13	Ace 3-wide	Run	4	Brown	Zone right
Same base 4-3 for Illinois. Good cut from Kraus(+1); frontside blocking is good from Boren(+1) and Ciulla, starting at RG despite the announced lineup. Illinois got blown off the ball, but forced a cutback from Brown, allowing the backside DE to close and prevent him from shooting into the secondary. Well blocked.
M11	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	15	Manningham	Post
Weird formation with the tight end lined up just in front of and to the left of Minor. Manningham runs a post route as Arrington drags just in front of the first down line; Illinois jumps the drag as Henne reads this and fires the post. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
M26	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	6	Butler	Waggle
Butler open as Leman sells out on the playfake and the weakside linebacker is trying to cover receivers downfield in zone. Butler makes the grab and lumbers upfield a bit. (CA, 3)
M32	2	4	Ace	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
Moundros lined up as a nominal tight end; he ducks inside Butler at the snap, acting as a fullback. Brown follows him into the hole, but Ciulla(-1) has not cut off the backside DT, who powers through the block and tackles near the LOS. Good play by him; without that Michigan has a big gainer.
M33	3	3	Shotgun Empty	Pass	Int	Manningham	Cross
This is open for the first; thrown behind Manningham, tipped, and intercepted. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-7, 11 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M32	1	10	Ace	Run	3	Brown	Zone left
Michigan catches a break as this #11 guy runs into Mathews and gives Michigan a free 15 yards. On this play we bring Arrington in motion to the left side of the line – where the FB is located – and use him as an extra blocker. I think Brown screws up a read here since the Arrington motion was not met with a defensive adjustment and he should be able to get the corner; maybe Kraus(-1)'s inability to handle Norwell helped him decide to head up into the middle of the line. A good backside cut from Schilling and some overpursuit from Ciulla's guy gives Brown a hole; Butler has no angle on a linebacker, though, and said linebacker makes a shoestring tackle.
M35	2	7	Ace Empty	Pass	4	Manningham	Bubble screen
Manningham motions to a pair of receivers at the top of the screen; I mutter “screen”; Michigan screens. Steele does a good job of recognizing this and attacking Arrington's outside shoulder; Arrington holds him a little bit but not enough to get called and Manningham manges to get the corner for a few. We really need some plays that play off this formation. (CA, 3)
M39	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	-9	--	Sack
Same weird TE positioning. Ciulla(-1) loses his guy; Kraus(-1) loses his guy; they meet at Henne. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 7 min 1st Q. Ugly pressure from both DTs; Zoltan blasts a 67 yard punt. Hail Zoltan! Illinois goes three and out, then shanks a punt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M49	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	7	Brown	Zone left
Mallett in. This defense would be killing me if I was an Illinois fan. They've got a linebacker over the slot guy and are clearly tipping zone. We run away from the receivers as they attack; blitzing MLB swallowed up by Long(+1); Ciulla(+1) manages to cut the backside linebacker; Davis gets too far outside to help. Brown runs over the prone MLB, tripping in the process.
O44	2	3	Ace Twins	Pass	10	Butler	Waggle
Virtual replay of the first Butler catch with the quick dumpoff and Butler turning upfield for a decent gain. Looks quicker on this one. (CA, 3)
O34	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	4 + 5	Brown	Zone right
Manningham whiffs as he tries to cut the corner and Kraus can't quite get out on Leman; the rest of the play is well blocked; Ciulla and Boren drive guys downfield; Davis and Leman converge after a few. Incidental facemask.
O25	2	1	I-Form	Run	3	Brown	Inside zone
Think this is designed to go inside as Boren and Kraus double the DT, driving him back. Moundros(-1) whiffs on the linebacker; Brown cuts up into the double and a backside double. No one ever gets disengaged to block the second level but the push on the first level is enough for the first down.
O23	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	6	Brown	Zone left
Nice job by Kraus(+1) to first get the DT sealed, then get out on a linebacker just enough to slow his progress and get Brown through the hole.
O17	2	4	I-Form Twins	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
Long(-1) gets beat on this play, allowing the DE to get inside of him after getting pushed back a yard or two; Brown attempts to cut past him but no dice.
O16	3	3	Shotgun Empty	Pass	6 (pen)	Manningham	In
2 TEs who stay in to block so not exactly empty-empty. Mallett's throw is only marginally accurate – it would be behind but a makeable catch – but it's a moot point with the Illinois DB interfering. (CA-, N/A, protection 2/2)
O10	1	G	I-Form	Run	2	Brown	Zone left
Frontside jammed up as Illinois jumps all over this, shooting a safety up right before the snap. Kraus has trouble with Norwell; Brown cuts back into the backs of his offensive linemen; little place else to go.
O8	2	G	I-Form	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Circle
Arrington has 'em, as the corner jumps the slant as he starts heading to the sideline; the throw is batted at the line and falls to the turf. (I assume. If it wasn't, it slipped.) (BA, 0, protection 2/2)
O8	3	G	Shotgun 2-back	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Skinny post
This could easily have been called interference; Hicks comes over the top, yanking Arrington with his off arm before the ball gets there. As it was, excellent coverage. Ball was again behind the receiver. (CA-, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: FG(25), 3-7, 1 min 1st Q. Holy God: during this drive ABC puts up a graphic on first down play selection. First six games: 24% pass. Purdue: 35%. I know, Mallett and blowouts and all that stuff but that's everyone's criticisms of Debord wrapped up into one little stat. Also, Zoltan's hold was a thing to be seen. Video!
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M20	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	8	Manningham	Stop
Henne back; he throws a stop to Manningham good for about five; Manningham slips a tackle for a few more. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M28	2	2	I-Form	Pass	40	Arrington	Post
Butler(-1) lets a defensive end spin past him; Henne's going to get whacked unless he gets rid of this. Fortunately, he does, finding Arrington 30 yards downfield on a post route. Perfect throw. (DO, 2, protection 2/3) Watch the defense on this one; Illinois brings a safety to the line as Michigan comes out in a run formation on second and short; Henne knows he has this from the snap.
O32	1	10	I-Form	Run	0	Henne	Fumbled snap
Wheee! I love these.
O32	2	10	Ace 4-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Stop
A simple stop route here that Henne throws well behind Arrington; he's got a shot at it but can't haul it in. Announcers unnecesssarily harsh on what would have been a twisting, one-handed grab. (IN, 1, protection 2/2)
O32	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	24	Manningham	Flag
Weird TE placement; Manningham burns Davis on a flag and hauls it in. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2).
O8	1	G	Ace Twins	Pass	8	Manningham	Waggle
Manningham on the far sideline stop route we occasionally use in the waggle; Henne daringly loops it over a linebacker coming over to cover; Manningham makes the reception, dodges a tackler, and extends for the touchdown. (DO, 3, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-14, 8 min 2nd Q. No runs on this drive; scoring offense.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M19	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	5	Manningham	Stop
Henne probably should have gone with Arrington on a flag behind this, but that's life I guess. Manningham does a good job of fighting for two or three more after this short,well-covered completion. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M24	2	5	Ace	Run	6	Brown	Outside zone left
We motion Arrington in for the three TE look, and I can't figure out whether this is well blocked or not. Andre Criswell(!) is one of the TEs; he lets the Illinois DE inside of him; Arrington helps seal him. Long releases downfield on the MLB; as Brown clears the DE he's presented with a filling corner and the MLB cutting towards him, Long in tow; he cuts inside behind long and a peeling Criswell, then splits two more guys for first down yardage. Possibly Brown's best run of the night and an indication he might be starter material.
M30	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Deep slant
Weird TE. Not sure what to call this route; it's basically a slant that runs long as Arrington clears out zone coverage. Henne finds and fires it to Manningham, a little high. It's dropped. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M30	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Pass	-10	--	Sack
Schilling(-2) pwned by Pilcher; Henne with no chance. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Schilling -2) Jake looks sad after the play.
M20	3	20	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	-7	--	Sack
A delayed stunt between the two DTs gets Lindquist free; Henne's stepped up into the pocket as the ends have come speed rushing upfield; he's snowed under. (PR, 0, protection 1/2, Minor -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-14, 4 min 2nd Q. Zoltan draws a personal foul for roughing the kicker. Hail Zoltan. It's that #11 again. Give that kid a scholarship.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M28	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	5	Brown	Zone left
Excellent blocking on the frontside; unfortunately Ciulla just can't quite get his man slowed up enough to spring Brown. The frontside drive blocks have created enough room for Brown to surge forward for a decent gain.
M33	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	25	Manningham	Post
Waits for Manningham to come open in the zone, then hits him right in stride so he can pick up another 10 YAC. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O42	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	12	Minor	Draw
Illinois finally in nickel and waiting on the pass. We've done this a couple times this year where a TE lined up just off the LOS dives inside to become a fullback; here Butler picks off a linebacker as Boren moves to the second level and gets an excellent block. Minor powers through an arm tackle, then stiffarms a DB for a good gain.
O30	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	-1	Minor	Draw
The problems on this play are manifold: Illinois has brought another guy into the box and Steele blitzes from the outside. Butler(-1) whiffs. Minor could just take it up the gut, but Schilling(-1) has gotten beaten by Pilcher. Two guys beating their blockers usually means TFL; this is a TFL.
O31	2	11	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	0	Butler	Flat
Schilling(-1) again beaten; Henne manages to step up past the onrushing defender. Problem: Ciulla(-1) also beaten and there's a DT about to swallow Henne up. He manages to chuck it to Butler for a couple yards, no thanks to the OL. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
O31	3	11	Ace 3-wide	Pass	15	Butler	Deep cross
First guy is covered, so Henne has to check down; he finds Butler barely open running a crossing route in man coverage, and puts it right where it needs to be so he can pick up the last couple yards he needs for the first on his own. Excellent pocket this time; good blitz pickup from Minor. (DO, 2, protection 3/3)
O16	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	3	Minor	Zone right
Pass-off block on the backside DT between Kraus and Long (you know, the one where Kraus bursts into the guy, knocking him back for Long to pick up) never gets the guy slowed up, so he tracks down the line. Steele defeats Butler's block(-1) and the two guys coverge on the ballcarrier despite Illinois only having six in the box.
O13	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Stop & go
Henne has this – the short corner bites – but throws it long and outside. Arrington lays out but can't haul it in. (IN, 1, protection 2/2)
O13	3	7	Ace 3-wide	Pass	13	Arrington	Flag
The touchdown; beautiful layout from Arrington and the ball from Henne is well placed enough. (CA- 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-14, 1 min 2nd Q. Full credit to Lloyd for using the challenge here. Why the F did he have to use it, though?
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M12	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	0 + 5	Brown	Zone left
Mallett in; Michigan runs against only seven in the box but virtually no one actually gets blocked. Ciulla(-1) can't even slow the backside DT; the DE manages to stay up after a pretty good cut from Schilling. Steele, unblocked, makes three guys in the backfield. No dice. We luck out with an incidental facemask.
M17	1	5	I-Form Twins	Run	2	Brown	Zone left
Wow, this is depressing: Illinois has only six guys in the box here. Long(-1) does not wall off his guy, who manages to set up inside enough to disengage and grab Brown as he passes. Ciulla(-1) fails to get a second level block; the linebacker fills ably. Michigan should really do better here.
M19	2	3	Ace	Run	7	Brown	Zone left
Butler gets driven way back but the DE is too aggressive and runs himself past Brown, falling. Long(+1) gets out on the WLB; Kraus and Moundros seal the frontside DT and the backside guy can't quite get to Brown.
M26	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	-1	--	Fumbled snap
Woo. Illinois again with six in the box, running a safety to the line at the snap. Trying to dupe Mallett into a run call? (It was a zone right.)
M25	2	11	I-Form Twins	Run	2	Brown	Draw
Caught Illinois in a good defense for this, as they bring up a LB to the line and blitz him out of the play. Only Leman is back there, but Moundros runs right up the middle of the play and the hole is between Ciulla and Schilling; he has no angle and Britt Miller is unmolested.
M27	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	-6	--	Sack
Ton of time for Mallett; he can't find anyone. He starts rolling out, directing Greg Mathews to go somewhere... he gets wide open but Mallett, for some reason, hesitates and takes a sack. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-14, 11 min 3rd Q. Carr chews Mallett out a bit after the play. Wonder what that was about?
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M30	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
Ugly: seven in the box but a corner lined up over the slot guy, who is in tight over a TE. He blitzes right into this play. Moundros picks him off, but the result is that Miller is totally unblocked – extra guy – and tackles at the LOS.
M31	2	9	Ace 4-wide	Pass	Inc	Butler	TE Out
This is either deflected or just ugly. I can't quite make it out, but there's no mention of the pass getting batted, so... (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M31	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	21	--	Scramble
Weird TE. Mallett can't find anyone open, but the middle of the field has broken wide open so he takes off. He is graceful like a dead gazelle.
O48	1	10	I-Form	Run	4	Brown	Draw
The DE gets inside Long, then falls; Moundros also runs up and creates a mess. Brown's apparently headed outside, so the linebacker also heads out, robbing Boren of an angle to block him. Somehow Brown squirts through for a decent gain.
O44	2	6	I-Form Twins	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
Corner blitzes right into the play and Moundros; Moundros can't handle him and he tackles at the LOS. Predictable predictable.
O43	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Fly
Two TEs, no RBs, this is a straight bomb to Manningham; Manningham has a step and a half on Davis; the ball is badly underthrown. When Manningham tries to adjust, Davis runs him over, bailing Michigan out. A touchdown if accurate. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O28	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	0	--	Fumbled snap
This one we lose; Boren, BTW, is at guard and Kraus is doing the snapping.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 17-14, 7 min 3rd Q. Seriously, WTF.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M29	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	6	Butler	Waggle
Butler doesn't even get a touch on the weakside DE, so he's un unblocked; Schilling is having trouble with the DT. Mallett has to dance around and flick it out to Butler, who they still aren't covering on this little flat route. (CA+, 3, protection 0/1, Butler)
M35	2	4	Ace 3-wide	Run	12	Brown	Zone left
I don't know if this was an adjustment or what, but now starts a series of plays where our running backs head out to the corner time and again, getting it time and again. This play is... odd. The frontside DT is let free as Long(+1) engages the frontside DE and Boren heads to the second level. The linebacker to the playside stays too far inside – maybe reading the hole caused by the DT flying upfield -- and gets blocked out of the play by Boren; Long holds the corner. Brown just runs outside.
M47	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	30	Brown	Zone right
Arrington shuffles in at the start of the play, sort of tipping where we're going; Illinois slants away from it anyway. Martez Wilson gets inside Butler, but can't quite get around in time to catch up to Brown. Schilling(+1) clocked a linebacker on the second level; Arrington(+1) walls off the corner. Brown takes off for a big gainer.
O22	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	10	Minor	Zone left
We shuffle and run towards it; this spurs a blitz from the LB to the playside that's perfectly timed. Long(+2) does a fantastic job absorbing the LB's momentum and actually driving him back. Moundros shoots between Long and Boren but ignores the MLB; Minor heads outside where a safety has come up; Moundros redeems himself by changing course and pounding him as Minor cuts back upfield. A stiffarm – Minor's second of the game – wards off the corner and gives Minor, uh, the corner.
O12	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	0	Minor	Zone left
Illinois now really stacking the hell out of the box, with eight guys in there plus a safety looking for the run. There are only two guys, one of them a linebacker, bothering with the WRs. This one's hard to make out; it looks like Kraus moved to the second level too quickly for Ciulla to pick up a block on the DT; Boren also struggled and DTs hit Minor at the LOS.
O12	2	10	Ace Twins	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
An excellent play from Leman, who shoots through a gap in the line and tackles Brown in the backfield.
O11	3	9	Shotgun Trips	Pass	Int	Mathews	Flag
Thrown into coverage; if he puts this outside maybe it has a chance. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 17-17, EO 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M22	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Mathews	Stop
Henne returns. Weird TE. Henne scans, coming off to a second or third read. It's low but catchable; Mathews can't dig it out. (CA-, 2, protection 2/2)
M22	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	Pass	-4	Minor	Screen
This is all on Boren(-1), who hesitates and does not get out on Steele, allowing the LB to drive to the ball carrier and eventually causing a big TFL. (CA, 3)
M18	3	14	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	3 + 15	Mathews	Drag
Weird TE. Henne comes down to Mathews on a well-covered crossing route for three yards; face mask bails Michigan out. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M36	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pen	-5	Butler	False Start
Butler(-1).
M31	1	15	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	4 + 15	Manningham
Michigan motions Butler to a pair of wide receivers at the top of the screen; I mutter “screen”; Michigan screens. Illinois covers it well, holding it down to four yards, then picks up a late hit. (CA, 3)
O48	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington?	Stop?
First: Schilling gets away with a blatant hold here. Second: Schilling's blatant hold isn't good enough to keep the defender off Henne; he's hit as he throws and the ball is a duck that falls incomplete. (BA, 0, protection 0/2, Schilling -2)
O48	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Run	6	Brown	Draw
Well blocked on the first level and Brown takes the appropriate hole; quick filling safety helps hold it down.
O42	3	4	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	5	Arrington	Drag
Good pocket, throw, and catch. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
O37	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Fly
Everyone runs flies in the hope that Illinois will have a two-deep coverage and the safeties will be SOL; this does not happen and everyone looks well covered. Henne throws for Manningham, but I think this is just chucking the ball OOB. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O37	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Run	-6	Minor	Zone left
I think. This is out of the shotgun and it's a little weird. A DT is left totally unblocked; Minor should run away from him but instead stops, thinking about trying to juke him. This does not work. At all. This actually kind of looks like Illinois' variation on the zone read that got Juice loose earlier in the game – Herbstreit says it's a zone read, too – but would we really run this? Are we stupid or something?
O43	3	16	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Stop & go
Wide open, as the DB stumbles; overthrown. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-17, 9 min 4th Q. Mind bullets.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
O13	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	2	Brown	Zone left
Eight in the box and they're charging forward at the snap. Brown burrows his way for two in a mess of players.
O11	2	8	I-Form	Pass	11	Manningham	Reverse pass
Well, yeah, of course we call that.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-17, 8 min 4th Q. MOMENTARY WOO THAT DOES NOT CONSIDER CIRCUMSTANCES SURROUNDING WOO GO.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
O47	1	10	???	Run	-3	Henne	Stumble
This is going to be zone right; Henne is stepped on by an OL and falls.
50	2	13	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	21	Mathews	Drag
We love these drag routes, don't we? This one is actually a few yards down the field; an Illinois DB whiffs on a tackle and the corner opens up for Mathews. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O29	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
No creases here; Butler(-1) driven back into Brown's path by Miller; a wad of bodies consumes the tailback.
O28	2	9	I-Form Twins	Pass	7	Manningham	Out
Corner is playing in Tajikistan after that last bomb and doesn't even come close to jumping the route. Ball is a little short and outside, dragging Manningham back upfield and eventually out of bounds when a first down was available with a better throw. (CA-, 3, protection 2/2)
O21	3	2	I-Form Big	Run	-2	Minor	Zone left
I'm not sure how the zone is doing on third and short this year, but this is a bad acid flashback to last year. Minor is swarmed, avoids a four-yard TFL, and manages to only lose two. Aaaargh run an iso.
Drive Notes: FG(39), 27-17, 4 min 4th Q. Michigan gets the ball back with two minutes left and a ten point lead; charting stops here.

Well?

So I think the potential disconnect between myself and some readers is this: I say "we only won that game because of many, many Illinois mistakes" and the response is "but you did not consider our mistakes!" But, uh... aren't our mistakes sort of the point? Michigan only has control over what it does; in this game it did a lot of bad: turnovers, sacks, fumbled snaps, dropped balls, etc. The point is less "we should have lost to Illinois" and more "this game reinforces my dark side that believes this team is going to end up 8-4 or 9-3 and is not likely to win a bowl game."

That said, there were positives to take out of this game I didn't see from the Memorial Stadium endzone. Henne was very good. Both Brown and Minor showed some indication they will be decent to good Big Ten runners next year. A large portion of the offensive suck was Mallett related and hopefully not something that will extend into the last three games of the season.

Say something nice.

Full credit to the coaching staff for deciding to place boot upon trachea on the last drive, taking the opportunity offered by Illinois' petrified corner on the last second down charted to set up a makeable field goal. The drag route that set Michigan up was a bit fortunate -- a missed tackle turned a seven yard gain into twenty -- but at least they were throwing the ball a bit. The reward was a clinching score and a relatively safe last four minutes.

Charts?

Charts.

Mallett
Team	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Oregon (1/2)	3	7	2	3	1	1	2
ND	2	7	4	1	0	2	0
PSU	3	12	6	3	6	1	2
NW (1/2)	2	5	4	1	1	1	1
Illinois (1/3)	0	4	2	2	0	1	0
Henne
Team	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
The Horror	2	22	8	2	1	0	2
Oregon (1/2)	1	13	6	3	1	0	3
NW (1/2)	1	19	4	1	1	1	0
EMU	4	16	1	0	1	2	1
Purdue	3	20	1	1	1	1	2
Illinois (2/3)	5	15	4	0	1	1	3

(Hennemallettchart Legend)

First, Mallett: he was really, really bad. In addition to the numbers above he fumbled two snaps (Henne also fumbled one), losing one, and a few of the CAs were marginal throws behind receivers that allowed Illinois defensive backs to make a play on the ball. The idea of crediting him for the two pass interference penalties he picked up doesn't hold water, as one a short cross thrown behind the receiver, giving the DB a chance to make a play that he did not, and the other was an underthrown bomb that was an easy touchdown if accurate.

It's just a third of a game that Mallett was yanked in and out of and not worth panicking over, but let's not sugarcoat things: he was bad, bad, bad.

Aren't the coaches putting him in a position to fail?

To some extent yes, but at this point it's something of a chicken-and-egg problem. Does Mallett often perform poorly because the only times he's suffered to throw downfield are when there is no other options? Is he suffered to throw only on obvious throwing downs because he performs poorly? Given how bad he was and how that Michigan rumbled down the field on Mallett's final drive before he threw a killer interception at the five, it's hard to criticize.

But... still.... Mallett's first and second down play breakdowns:

Down	Run	Pass
1st	12	1
2nd	6	4

One fumbled snap on first down was not charted. That's a lot of runs, and the pass was one of those little flickouts to Butler behind the LOS. At this point, don't you have to try loosening things up a bit?

The only non-ND Mallett touchdown drive -- as opposed to Morelli gift -- was the one against Penn State where Michigan opened up, got the ball out to Manningham a couple times on first down, and staked itself to an eight-point lead it would not relinquish. Mallett's best drive against Northwestern was mostly passing. The rest? Bupkis. Though Michigan did have the one long ground-based drive against Illinois and a shorter one that ended in a field goal, the overall efficacy rate of Mallett's training wheels offense is minuscule... and that's not all on him. Except in this game.

And Henne?

I may have been a little generous with the DOs, but there they are; they are unlikely to be a result of win-based ecstasy. One inaccurate pass was the horrible interception; a couple others could plausibly be credited to his half-ending injury and should be looked upon in context. Another very strong outing for him.

Protection: 48/59. Not a good day. Culprits: Schilling -5, Ciulla -2, Butler -2, Minor -1, Kraus -1.

So this Schilling-buffeting?

First, a whole host of caveats: Schilling showed up, got mono, missed most of his freshman year with an injury that prevented him from adding strength anywhere, then was injured and out for most of spring practice. In-season he's been batted from tackle to guard and back to tackle. He is playing over his head to even be a starter.

That said, he's not playing particularly well. The problems in pass protection have been matched with frequent issues in the run game. One sack and a dangerously batted pass were on him as he failed to contain Illinois DE Doug Pilcher. At the moment, the great hope of the 2007 offensive line, that Schilling and Boren would turn out to be better than the departed Bihl/Riley combo, has not come to fruition. It looks highly unlikely to get there any time this year.

Receiverchart:

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Manningham	3	-	2/2	7/8		12	2/13	9/12	40/43
Arrington	1	1/3	2/2	-		6	3/10	13/16	25/26
Mathews	1	-	0/2	2/2		4	0/4	2/6	20/22
Hemingway	-	-	-	-		2	-	-	2/2
Massey	-	-	-	-		2	0/3	1/1	3/3
Butler	1	-	1/1	3/3		1	0/2	-	11/11
Hart	-	-	-	-		4	-	-	9/9
Minor	-	-	-	1/1		-	-	0/1	3/3
Moundros	-	-	-	-		-	-	1/1	1/1

A less effective game from the receivers, as Mathews and Manningham dropped a couple of makeable catches. Arrington laid out for one spectacular touchdown grab, though.

You mean obvious non-touchdown in the eyes of the replay official oops right?

Yeah, seriously. Everyone in the stadium expected that third down to be reviewed as soon as Arrington hit the ground, but Carr actually had to use his challenge to get the geriatric in the booth to put down his Werther's Originals and look at the play. WTF? The addition of the challenge seemed more a salve for outraged coaches in the aftermath of the fiasco that was the Alamo Bowl than a useful addition to the system. Michigan should never have been forced to use its challenge for an obviously close, critical play, especially given that Michigan let the play clock wind all the way down before making the challenge.

Heroes?

Henne, mostly. No one else stood out as particularly excellent on offense. Brown, maybe. Also, the Illinois punt and punt return teams. We love you guys. Especially #11.

There is no UFR for special teams, so special teams guys never get called out in these sections but we need a special shout out for Zoltan here. His 67-yard rocket changed the field position early in the game, and he allowed no returns, pinned opponents within the 20 whenever given the opportunity, dug out an extra point snap, and got himself roughed by #11. Yea, truly he is benevolent.

Also, KC Lopata: don't go changing.

Goats?

Schilling, as mentioned, had a very tough time with Pilcher and others. Mallett was real bad for the first time in his Michigan career.

What does it mean for Minnesota?

Since the Gophers just gave up 400 rushing yards to a I-AA team and are starting three true freshmen in the secondary, anything less than one million points will be disappointing.

Upon Further Review: Defense vs Illinois

Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
M33	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Run	7	Zone read handoff
Fullback in the game; Mendenhall motions in from the slot. FB used as a lead blocker as Taylor gets doubled at the POA. CGraham(-1) gets blocked out of the hole and Mendenhall has a crease; a blitzing Harrison comes around from the backside and grabs at Mendenhall's legs; he almost powers through but falls.
M26	2	2	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Pass	26	Zone read PA
Again with motion from the slot to the backfield; this time it's Benn. Illinois fakes inside to Mendenhall as Benn comes around the outside, giving a triple option look. This sucks up Graham and Englemon, leaving eight guys within two yards of the LOS. Warren(-2) has let his man behind him; easy pitch and catch for the touchdown. (Cover -2) It looks like Warren expects safety help from Englemon and got the defense mixed up.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 14 min 1st Q. Fake beautifully executed there; we freak out about the option and Juice had his choice of targets.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
M40	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	2	Zone right
Straight zone stretch here that we could have run. We have an extra guy, Harrison, in the box and they neglect to block him because Crable(+1) drives his man into the backfield and draws attention from a guard. Harrison slows Mendenhall; Jamison and others converge to tackle after a small gain.
M38	2	8	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	-6	Flare screen
Benn motions into the backfield, then runs a little flare screen. This is odd, since instead of blocking Harrison the slot guy runs a little flare route of his own, allowing him to close unblocked. He does do this(+2), making a key TFL without overrunning the dangerous Benn.
M44	3	14	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pen	-5	False Start
M49	3	19	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	-12	Sack
Well, full credit to CGraham(+2) here. He blitzes, beating the left tackle to the corner and grabbing Juice from behind as he attempts to scramble out of the pocket. (Pressure +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 9 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O4	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 Goalline	Run	0	Off tackle
Jamo(+1) is ignored on the first level in favor of a double on Johnson; he busts into the backfield and takes on the FB such that he's stoned and the pulling guard has nowhere to go; Mendenhall cuts it to the backside were an unblocked Adams(+1) fills with authorita.
O4	2	10	I-Form Big	4-4 Goalline	Run	5	Iso
Taylor doubled and pushed back a bit, opening a hole as BGraham(-1) shoots upfield and out of the play. Ezeh(+1) takes on the fullback, shedding as he ducks inside to avoid a filling Adams.
O9	3	5	Shotgun Empty	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Slant
Englemon(+1) jumps the route and impacts the receiver just as the ball gets there. It's wide anyway – Juice Williams and all that – but would have been a tough catch to make even if accurate. (Cover +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 5 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O10	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Run	0	Zone read keeper
Crable(+1) keeps contain, bottling Juice up and tackling. Benn dropped back here, hoping to give Juice an option look should he get outside.
O10	2	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	9	In
Juice stands in despite having an unblocked blitzer in his face and delivers a strike. Warren tackles immediately. (Cover -1)
O19	3	1	I-Form Big	4-4 Goalline	Run	1	Iso
The double on Taylor gets just enough push for Mendenhall to squeeze out a first down. BGraham(+1) got some penetration and was a hair away from slowing Mendenhall in the backfield long enough for the linebackers to collapse.
O20	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Run	5	Zone read handoff
Stunt or slant of some kind that sees Taylor step hard to the left, eventually getting picked up by the RT as Crable and Ezeh crash in unblocked on the outside. Juice reads this and makes the handoff; Chris Graham has to deal with the center and can't; Taylor(+1) does a good job of reading and recovering, grabbing Mendenhall by the legs and taking him down. Our rock, their paper, and a five yard gain here is about the minimum.
O25	2	5	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Run	0	Iso
They leave Crable(+1) unblocked on the first level; the fullback is supposed to pick him off. This does not so much happen as Crable bolts around the FB and sticks Mendenhall in the backfield.
O25	3	5	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	9	Cross
Benn sits down in a hole in the zone vacated when Ezeh starts chasing after Mendenhall on a flare route, then suddenly pulls up. Crable(+1) was about to pound Juice here if he had to hesitate. (Cover -1)
O34	1	10	???	???	Pass	8	Rollout Stop
Juice on a rollout. Fires low and late to Benn; Trent(+1) is up on this route, nearly intercepting it and making it an extremely difficult catch. (Pressure -1, cover +1)
O42	2	2	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	23	Zone read trap
We've got Ferrara(-2) in there; he comes through totally unblocked as Illinois turns him loose; he then bites on the zone read fake and lets Juice free. You can see him say “#&#$” to himself as Juice starts motoring. Ezeh had to respect the Mendenhall fake but CGraham(-1) meekly accepted a block.
M35	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	2	Scramble
Juice scans and scans, finding no one. (Cover +2, pressure -1) Once the clock in his head goes of he starts running around like he is wont to do; Ezeh and CGraham chase him out of bounds.
M33	2	8	Ace 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	10	Iso
You can blame this on shoddy tackling or credit Mendenhall for being a damn good back; probably some of both. Ezeh shoots into the backfield on a run blitz, where the fullback submarines him. Johnson has hopped inside the tackle and lunges at Mendenhall's feet; he takes a hop step and dodges it. Johnson(+1), prone, latches onto his foot, but just before the cavalry convenes he squirts free and takes off downfield for ten yards. I have to hand out some demerit somewhere, and this one goes to Englemon(-1), who overran the play and gave up that cutback lane when there was no need to rush to an area two players had covered.
M23	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	6	Stop
Benn motions into the backfield, but Juice just sets up to throw. He has all day (pressure -1), finally coming down to a little stop route in front of Trent. Good coverage(+1) elsewhere.
M17	2	4	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	9	Iso
Illinois pulls a tackle around to attack a fairly large gap between the weakside tackle, lined up almost over the center, and end, who's outside the tackle. Taylor(-1) is blown back; Ezeh does not read the play quickly enough and eats the pulling OL as the LG slides off on Graham. Mendenhall bursts through the line and drags Crable, tracking back, for four extra yards.
M8	1	G	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	8	Zone read handoff
Pure zone left from a shotgun formation here. Crable(-1) cedes the corner; Warren(-1) reads this late and gets out of position as this nears the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 3-14, 10 min 2nd Q. A frustrating ground-based drive that features... what? Three first down passes? None of these were exactly brilliant but they kept the defense off balance and put Williams in a place he could succeed. I also love the zone read where they loose a defensive tackle who's unlikely to be as well versed in containment as the defensive ends; sure enough Ferrara bites and Illinois gets a big chunk of yards on an impressive touchdown drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O35	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	0	Zone read handoff
Both CGraham(+1) and Ezeh(+1) finally get the picture, leaping forward before the second-level blockers can get out on them and stuffing this in the intended hole.
O35	2	10	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	8	Rollout scramble
Play action to Mendenhall and then an escorted rollout for Williams. He can't find anyone (cover +1); Jamison is all alone out there and manages to keep Juice inside, a small victory, despite having to deal with a blocker. Ezeh(-1) waited too long on the fake, allowing the scramble, but did recover well enough to make a tackle downfield. Managed to not get suckered by a juke and made a nice open field tackle.
O43	3	2	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	0	Zone read keeper
Same zone read that Juice picked up 23 on the last drive with the intent being an unblocked, suckered DT; we stunt, however. Taylor(+1) comes around after blowing up the center and holds contain; Johnson(+1) has beaten the pulling guard to his spot and the two of them have Juice boxed in for no gain.
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-14, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O35	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Post
This kind of looks like a bad throw, but I don't know that it was. Harrison(+1) was actually running this route better than the WR; if this is accurate he has a shot at a pick. As it is, Juice has to throw it well behind the WR, who drops a very touch catch. (Cover +1)
O35	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	0	Screen
Ezeh(+1) reads this and should have it dead to rights but Mendenhall makes a great play to get away. Nevertheless, the timing of the play is disrupted and Mendenhall is swarmed under by defenders. Illinois allows the half to run out.
Drive Notes: EOH, 17-14, EOH.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O38	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	13	Zone read handoff
Mendenhall motions into the backfield; triple option look; they hand off to the dive guy. Awful play from both linebackers; CGraham(-1) gets lost way outside where Crable and Warren have hopped on the option; Ezeh(-1) is hesitant and gets clubbed out of the play by an OL. DT twist leaves both guys out of position and there's a major hole.
M49	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	20	Zone read PA
Same motion, same triple option action, but Juice pulls it out and sets up to throw. Both LBs are sucked up; huge hole between levels in the zone. Ezeh recovers a bit, getting in the throwing land, but the pass glances off his helmet and is completed anyway. (Cover -2, pressure -1)
M29	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Run	-1	Option
Michigan blitzes into this, forcing a quick pitch. As soon as that happens, Harrison(+1) comes up to fill, taking on the fullback and forcing Mendenhall back inside, where Crable(+1) has come all the way from the backside to tackle.
M30	2	11	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Stop
The 3-3-5 with much smaller DL gaps; we blitz ineffectively out of this (pressure -1) and our LBs open a big hole in the middle of the zone (cover -1); we again are flying out on these flare routes. Juice finds a guy for near first down yardage. He drops an easy pass.
M30	3	11	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Deep cross
Another delayed blitz, this one sort of effective as Juice can't find anyone. (Cover +1). He rolls out, pulling up to airmail a ball out of the corner of the endzone.
Drive Notes: Missed FG (47), 10 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O29	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	-6	Zone read option
McGee in. They finally go with the option they've been threatening; Harrison(+1), blitzing, shoots into the backfield and tackles Williams before he can even think about pitching – pitch was probably going to be covered by Adams anyway.
O23	2	16	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	9	Screen
CGraham is in man here and Mendenhall is his responsibility. He cuts through some blockers adeptly, then flies right past Mendenhall. Overrun, thy name is Graham(-1). Adams comes in and makes a valiant attempt but fails; Taylor(+1) backtracks impressively and grabs Mendenhall by the ankles. Mendenhall did make a sweet move to juke Graham.
O32	3	7	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	16	Scramble
BGraham(+1), at DT, shoots past a guard and gets immediate pressure on McGee, who scrambles out. (Pressure +1) Crable chases but can't catch him; Will Johnson(-1) overruns it. Where are our linebackers?
O48	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Run	13	Counter
Taylor(-1) bowled over, making this a huge hole; CGraham(-1) blocked out of the play. Ezeh attempts to close it down but is a step slow.
M39	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Run	12	Counter
Thompson(-1) returns for the first time in a while; his first contribution is getting blown out of the hole by a fullback, allowing Mendendhall another first down run. Adams(-1) also got himself out of position.
M27	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	4	Bubble screen
Trent's(+1) playing off but does a pretty good job of closing this down.
M23	2	6	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Run	2	FB Dive
Option fake to the outside; we miss a portion of this play for an ESPN logo. Taylor(+1) gets off a block to close it down after a short gain.
M21	3	4	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Run	0	Zone read handoff
Option fake outside; Thompson(+2) slices up before the OL can get a hand on him and tackles in the backfield.
Drive Notes: FG(38), 17-17, 4 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O4	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 Goalline	Run	3	Iso
CGraham(+1) fills the hole, standing up the FB, but eventually gets pushed back; Mendenhall peels off and pushes for a few.
O7	2	7	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Run	7	Iso
CGraham(-1), blitzing as Michigan brings up Adams for a seventh man in the box, takes on the fullback with one shoulder, gets blocked out of the hole, and cedes major yardage to Mendenhall.
O14	3	In	I-Form Big	4-4 Goal line	Run	7	Iso
Weil picks out a hole on the backside that has two Michigan defenders, Adams and Ezeh(-1) defending it; Ezeh lets Mendenhall slide inside of him and through without so much as slowing down. Englemon comes over to make a saving tackle or this is a 86 yard touchdown.
O21	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc + 15	Fly
Do you bash Trent for letting this guy get way, way behind him or praise him for having the recovery speed to come back and timing to break this play up? I don't know. If this is thrown longer it's a touchdown, but it's already a 40-yard pass. Trent -1, cover -1, instead of the larger numbers this would have been without the recovery speed. Jamison(-1) with a personal foul.
O36	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Pass	5	Stop
Again they hit a guy in the zone after our LBs vacate for a flare route. Warren tackles immediately.
O41	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Rollout
I assume McGee threw this away because he didn't find anyone open. (Cover +1)
O41	3	5	I-Form 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	1	Option
Jamison(+1) gets a good push, forcing an early pitch or cut up decision from McGee; he decides to cut up. Ezeh(+1) shoots through a couple blockers and tackles.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-17, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O20	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Run	5	Zone read handoff
CGraham(-1) blocked out by the fullback again, paving the way for Mendenhall. Englemon closes down.
O25	2	5	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	-5	Sack
Williams has time; can't find anyone. (Cover +1). He starts flushing as BGraham(+1) comes around the corner; Crable(+1), coming around the other corner, watches and strips the ball from behind as Juice exits the pocket. (Pressure +1). The Illinois OL falls on it.
O20	3	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Post
Pocket holds for Juice, though IMO Jamison is held here and would otherwise be busy sacking the QB. Juice wings it over the head of an open receiver (cover -1).
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-17, 6 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O9	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Post
Time(pressure -1), Benn open on a deep post (cover -1); thrown behind and incomplete.
O9	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	15	Screen
Ezeh(-1) and Harrison(-1) read this late; there's no one even close as Mendenhall catches the ball except Trent, who has to keep outside contain.
O24	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Throwaway
McGee with epic time but no one open (pressure -2, cover +2). He eventually tosses it OOB.
O24	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	9	Stop
In front of Trent; immediate tackle. Fine given score and time.
O33	3	1	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	8 (pen)	Slant
Ooooh, I don't know about this. To me, this looks excellently timed and not deserving of a flag. (+1, cover +1) Oh. They called it on Harrison... who, yeah, got Benn, as this slant could have been caught by either of two receivers. (-1 Harrison)
O43	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Throwaway
Good coverage(+1) causes McGee to dump it into the stands. Warren(+1) again.
O43	2	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	3	Screen
Englemon(+1) jumps up, but gets juked. Mendenhall manages to trip up over his feet... a little lucky.
O46	3	7	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Throwaway
Illinois has put all its eggs in a three step drop slant that Ezeh(+1) covers(+1) excellently. By the time he comes off to another receiver Illinois' attempted cut blocks have been defeated and Crable(+1) is crushing McGee.
O46	4	7	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Post
Benn open (cover -1); thrown behind him.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs, 27-17, 2 min 4th Q. Yeah, Warren(+1) runs a fly route and picks off a ball on the lone Illinois play on their final possession, but the game is over here; charting ceases.

Are you still Mr. Grumpypants?

A little, since visions of Chris Wells doing virtually the same thing Mendenhall did except 30 times instead of 18 dance through my head. Michigan did its share of good things in this game, but many of the Illinois drives were stopped because of the Illini's inherent Juice-ness (or McGee-ness) and can't really be credited to the Michigan defense. That's a logical strategy when you oppose Illinois, I suppose, but it's hard to get excited about it. At this point in the season I'm looking for reasons we will lose or win against Ohio State; this was sort of a non-event in that calculus.

Aw, come on.

Okay, okay. This game does represent a large step forward for the defense compared to the Appalachian State game, as one touchdown drive was a 30-yarder after a long kick return and there was no turnover blizzard to stop Illinois drives before fourth down rolled around. Michigan's safeties are playing at a level we haven't seen in a long time, the cornerbacks have progressed into a strength, and against teams with non-mobile quarterbacks Michigan has been a pass rushing terror. It's a pretty good defense at this point in the year; given Oregon's spectacular demolition of all comers only The Horror stands out as a bad outing. Ron English may be placed on his pedestal once again. Just ignore that ugly crack in the base.

Chart?

Chart.

Player	+	-	T	Notes
Jamison	2	1	1
Johnson	2	1	1
Taylor	4	2	2
B. Graham	3	1	2	Not much time with Crable a constant fixture.
Crable	7	1	6	Excellent game.
Slocum	-	-	-
Gallimore	-	-	-
Ferrara	-	2	-2	Only play of note was the zone read.
Patterson	-	-	-
Banks	-	-	-
Thompson	2	1	1	Finally returned; appears to have lost his starting job.
Ezeh	5	3	2	Mildly surprised this is positive; don't think he's that much better than CGraham at this point.
C. Graham	4	6	-2	Got owned by the Illinois fullback.
Logan	-	-	-	DNP
Trent	2	1	1
Harrison	5	2	3	Was excellent on the rare occasions Illinois ran the option.
Warren	2	3	-1
Adams	1	1	1
Englemon	2	1	1	The Englemon: 2-1-1.
Brown	-	-	-
"Pressure"	3	9	-6	Worst day of the year in this category, likely because of contain paranoia.
"Coverage"	15	10	5	Excellent day that should offset the fairly meh numbers from the secondary above.

It often happens that when Michigan is more concerned with a quarterback's legs than his arm the pressure suffers as blitzing is replaced with zone coverage and stunts are replaced with an emphasis on containment. It did pretty well.

Heroes?

Crable was all over the field. His speed at defensive end was extremely useful on zone reads, options, and just plain chasin'; against more dangerous running quarterbacks he never plunged inside on the zone read.

Also, Brandon Harrison was a key actor on the rare occasions Illinois ran the option, shooting into the backfield, but responsible like, on a number of plays that ended up as TFLs.

The secondary as a whole deserves credit for missing few tackles and registering a +5 coverage metric even though Illinois quarterbacks had a lot of time to throw.

Goats?

Our linebacker play is just not good. Ezeh, like Steve Schilling (who will come in for a tsk-tsk-ing in the offensive UFR), has the dual excuses of youth and position switches; Chris Graham does not. At this point it's not awful, but neither player beat a run block to make a play all game and there were only a couple instances where either one managed to avoid a block and make a play at or around the line of scrimmage. Michigan did an excellent job of containing the outside run with Harrison and Crable, leaving in the inside to the DTs and the LBs. Mendenhall won that battle more often than not and it was only excellent tackling by the secondary that kept him from having a truly prodigious day. (Colin has much more on this in his own niche UFR thing focusing on Ezeh and Graham.)

Also: Taylor and Johnson weren't much more effective against the zone read than they were in the first week of the season. Taylor did make a couple plays, but +2 is a weak day for a DT playing against a lot of interior run plays.

What does it mean for Minnesota?

Hopefully as little as anything else does against what may be the worst BCS team in the country. Minnesota's offense has been decent so far this year and they run the dread spread, but their redshirt freshman quarterback has been an interception machine. The defenses they've opposed so far are Ohio State and a bunch of slack-jawed yokels; Michigan is closer to the former than the latter these days and should do better than the 20 Indiana gave up.

Mailbag!

Site note: There appears to be a pattern and cause for the intermittent site issues for some viewers. The browser affected appears to be Firefox on a Mac. The cause is excessive youtube embedding. I'll cut back on the Wolverine Historian embeds and try to keep the flash down in the future. Also, sorry about the late and flimsy content. I am way behind this week and have to spend the day in intensive UFR mode to get them up tomorrow.

Thought you might find this interesting. I'm enjoying the ND losses so much I decided to plot the cumulative winning percentage of Michigan and Notre Dame over time.

(click for big)

Pretty sure it's accurate as I've compared my database with Stassen's at various times.

Mike

That margin looks small, but I believe it's at 6.5 games after this weekend's results. You can see the Bo bump in the early 70s and then a very slight upward trend since; Notre Dame has been in decline since the 60s with brief bursts of competence.

Many of yesterday's comments echoed this:

Brian

I read your blog daily and most of the time thoroughly enjoy it. Your in-depth coverage is entertaining and informative. However...

Your constant nit-picking and general negativity is wearing a little thin on me. A win is a win, and therewere extenuating circumstances that I believe make this a great, repeat, great Michigan victory. In a season filled with ridiculous results, I think it's time you opened your eyes a little and drank a bottle of perspective. You still seem hell-bent on writing off this season after the early losses. They lost two games. Get over it already and move on.

I however, am truly enjoying each and every game. Football is not a science. And it's not life or death. Relax a little and enjoy being a fan of Michigan football.

Respectfully yours,

Roger Greenspan

I admit being surprised at two things: the generally uncritical reaction to the shoddy nature of the win and the often extremely critical reaction to the game post yesterday, which I thought would be uncontroversial.

First: I am capable of independent thought even in the presence of other people with opinions, and if you are theorizing that the person adjacent to me poisoned my view of an excellent road win you must consider the possibility that Brent Musberger, a mobile hagiography, may have distorted your view of an ugly win against an incompetent team coached by a guy who many consider a dolt.

Second: Of course I am hung up on the first two games of the year. I would remind you that we went from national championship contenders to national laughingstocks in two quick weeks in the senior years of Jake Long, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart largely because the team was woefully ill-prepared to stop a I-AA team that could not throw. The horrendous coaching breakdowns that led to the parade of mistakes do continue to color my opinion of the team and the year and will do so until the sun expands and consumes the earth. Given Carr's well-established track record it would be silly to do otherwise.

Third: Was it really that negative? I mean:

This was slightly annoying. I, of course, still had my arms above my head, signaling touchdown, and Person Accompanying Me was busy criticizing impending victory moments after an audaciously successful trick play. She was basically right -- Illinois handed us the game, but only after we had attempted to hand it to them and then they had attempted to hand it back and then we had attempted to hand it back back -- but, like, come on now. Sure, this had all the beauty of the Soviet Bloc interior of Memorial Stadium, about which more later, but victory was likely ours. Eventually that counts for something.

After the thing had finally come to its disjointed end, a sense of relief filtered in. Michigan survived a potential minefield. It was ugly and sordid and dirty but it was a win, and now Michigan is going to play Ohio State for the Rose Bowl unless the roof caves in against both State and Wisconsin. This is a long way from 0-2 and being a national laughingstock; Carr has once again picked his charges up off the mat and driven them towards respectability. We can wish this peculiar talent of Carr's was less firmly established, but we should be thankful for it at the same time.

Let's try again: November 17th for all the marbles, at least in Bo's world, and a chance at a happy ending for Carr and Henne and Hart and Long and us.

In a nutshell: this is that Wisconsin game where a punt bounced off Brett Bell, it was ugly and let's get out of Dodge, I'm happy we won, let's go beat Ohio State. I am looking for the part where I lose touch with reality and turn into a crabby old man demanding cranberry juice and hating life.

Four: Please keep in mind that I was in the endzone and everything looked one missed tackle away from a touchdown. I reserve the right to change my mind in UFR.

Five: I withdraw the bullet about the Henne substitution. I was not aware of the situation. Also...

As for Hart, who traveled to Illinois and was on the sideline in sweat clothes, it appears it could be a game-time decision whether he can play.

!!!

Now to something we can all agree on:

"People better enjoy it now," he said, shortly after his team's latest new low, a 38-0 home loss to previously staggering USC. "Have their fun now."--Chuckles

Is this guy serious? They are now 1-9 over their last 10 losing by an average of 24pts and this is what he has to say? I know you get heat sometimes for talking about ND too much, but this has gotten out of control. I can't imagine ever having to go through that. Losing to App State does not come anywhere close to comparing to what is going on down there. And then this fat bastard has the stones to say that we all need to have our fun now, because they are going to become some juggernaut. Anyway, I can't get enough of seeing him flame out and seeing their program hit such a low level and was hoping these new quotes from CW would turn into an anti-ND post sometime soon.

I wish; during the season the day-to-day column-tuesday-UFR-UFR-preview thing really cuts down on available time to be mean. And I've said it all before. So little bashing except what hits a UV now and then.

Hey

The picture of J Leman is sweet and all, but have you checked out his profile on Illinois' site? Scroll down and check out the sidebar:

The Apostle Paul? Awesome!

Jake

J Leman is 100% pure Colombian awesome. That is all.

Brian,

You know who I'm talking about. [Email titled "James Laurinitius (sp)" -ed] I know you have previously taken the position that he was simply the beneficiary of the over-hype machine. Yes he had big turnover in big games, but his overall play was average at best to those of us who actually watched the games. I always felt the "sock puppets" simply wanted to anoint the next Big Kat, Hawk, Carpenter, etc. I haven't had the chance to watch much Ohio St. this season because their competition has been a joke so far. I've been reading a couple of mock drafts and some mid-season all-American lists, and he is a constant. What am I missing? Has he really become a can't miss, above average linebacker?

Easy

This is not quite the position espoused here. Laurinaitis was on the All Big Ten team I put together last year, albeit on the second team, and in the Ohio State preview I recounted the Litany Against Laurinaitis, then made an allowance:

Depending on how much he improves he could warrant the breathless Musbergerisms he receives; I still would like to see it before believing it. My theory on Laurinaitis is that he's great in space but easy to block and my theory on the OSU DTs is adequacy at best -- no double-teams demanded here -- so I am compelled to predict a significant step backwards in Ohio State's run defense. Like... not awful or anything, but thorough averageness is a possibility.

It appears he has made this leap, though I haven't seen much of OSU yet and couldn't tell you for sure. The assertions about a potentially questionable OSU run defense appear to be wrong -- currently #2 nationally -- and he has something to do with that. Complaints about Laurinaitis being overrated belong to last year; I have no position on him yet this year.

The Battle Of Who Could Care Less

10/20/2007 - Michigan 27, Illinois 17 - 6-2, 4-0 Big Ten


I've got this great idea
why don't we pitch it to the Franklin fuckin' Mint
fine pewter portraits of General Apathy and Major Boredom singing
whatever and ever, amen.

oh well, maybe not. I'll try again.

Greg Mathews was dragged down by his facemask; fifteen yards on what otherwise would have been fourth and long, another opportunity for Zoltan the Inconceivable to blow your mind with a 67 yard punt. A play later Mario Manningham was clubbed late out of bounds; first down at midfield. Michigan dutifully clunked its way to a fourth down and punted even though the refs kindly overlooked a blatant holding penalty. Zoltan lofted one to the ten as the Illinois returner settled under it, motioning for a fair catch. He dropped it.* Michigan recovered it. Two plays later Adrian Arrington took a reverse and threw into the endzone for the winning points. My hands shot skyward.

Not so impressed was the person accompanying me, a baseball enthusiast at her first football game with little tolerance for the ad-hoc and often arcane set of rules cobbled together to make the sport clatter along without imploding. (Attempting to explain what, exactly, constituted holding proved too baffling a concept for both explainer and explain-ee; eventually I just said it was like pornography -- I knew it when I saw it -- and left it at that.) To her, the whole series of events that had just transpired was sordid and cheap and wide receivers can throw the ball? So why don't they throw it always? And what's with the random events? Where is the storyline? Why is this so ugly? Etc etc etc.

This was slightly annoying. I, of course, still had my arms above my head, signaling touchdown, and Person Accompanying Me was busy criticizing impending victory moments after an audaciously successful trick play. She was basically right -- Illinois handed us the game, but only after we had attempted to hand it to them and then they had attempted to hand it back and then we had attempted to hand it back back -- but, like, come on now. Sure, this had all the beauty of the Soviet Bloc interior of Memorial Stadium, about which more later, but victory was likely ours. Eventually that counts for something.

After the thing had finally come to its disjointed end, a sense of relief filtered in. Michigan survived a potential minefield. It was ugly and sordid and dirty but it was a win, and now Michigan is going to play Ohio State for the Rose Bowl unless the roof caves in against both State and Wisconsin. This is a long way from 0-2 and being a national laughingstock; Carr has once again picked his charges up off the mat and driven them towards respectability. We can wish this peculiar talent of Carr's was less firmly established, but we should be thankful for it at the same time.

Let's try again: November 17th for all the marbles, at least in Bo's world, and a chance at a happy ending for Carr and Henne and Hart and Long and us.

*(MIND BULLETS!!!)

Bullets:

• Adding to the ugliness was the inside of Memorial Stadium, which looks like it was built in a Warsaw Pact country circa 1952, all concrete so gray the term "gray" seems insufficient to describe its grim colorlessness. The tenor of the place turned North Korean at halftime when the student section held up a series of placards that created various effects: block Ms and Is, goal posts, the ABC logo, "Zook" spelled out in orange and blue.
• The outside, it should be noted, is quite pretty.
• Are Illinois fans issued "Muck Fichigan" t-shirts upon matriculation? Seemingly 30% of the crowd had them, including several middle-aged men who looked otherwise respectable. Next year in the MGoStore look for shirts that just say "Nobody Cares About You," perfect for Illinois or Michigan State or, well... anybody on the schedule. Wooo 21st century scheduling.
• Watching from the endzone was a terrifying experience because without much of a vantage point -- the Memorial Stadium field is not sunken at all -- it looked like virtually every Illinois play was going for an 80 yard touchdown before Adams or Englemon came in to tackle. Don't know if its an artifact of the scheme or the spread, but the safeties had 18 tackles between them... our linebackers were not doing much of a job.
• I am starting to get concerned about Mallett. He should be better by now. The interception should never have been thrown, he fumbled two more snaps, his accuracy is lacking, and early he scrambled out of trouble, directed Greg Mathews to run a route away from the defender and inexplicably held onto the ball even though Mathews had broken wide open. He should be better than Clausen.
• At this point in his career, Steve Schilling is mediocre at best.
• When did Carson Butler get so ponderous?
• Is there any plausible explanation for the Henne-Mallett substitution pattern? Obviously they have no faith in Mallett and the offense turns into run run throw punt when he's in there; Henne was able to tough out his injury and return. Did the coaches really think a damaged Henne was worse than Mallett, and if so how does that square with their playcalling?
• Illinois fans have a bad rep amongst Michigan fans, but we had no problems. The guys directly in front of us were friendly; the third quarter was mostly spent having sarcastic chuckles at the ineptness of both teams.
• Why did we have to use a challenge on the Arrington touchdown? Credit to Lloyd for deploying it there, but how blind does the replay official have to be to not immediately signal for review? That's a crucial play that was eventually overturned... how can it not be close enough for another look?
• There is a place near campus called CO Daniel's. The floor there is just like the floor in hell.
  

Illinois Torrent

Can be found here.

(What's a torrent? FAQ.)

Illinois Open Thread

Anyone with some ankle-healing snake oil report to Memorial Stadium STAT.

Preview: Illinois

First, Alan Weymouth on the last game and the upcoming one:

People saying this was our most complete game of the season are spot on. I also have to say, DeBord called a pretty darn good game on Saturday. Run game showed a few new wrinkles...not many, but enough to keep Purdue off balance. The thought the passing game was very, very sharp and the staff adjusted quite well here.

Our madeover right side of the offensive line performed pretty well. I didn't see any mental gaffes on run or pass blocking schemes to note. With DeBord keeping the Purdue defense off balance, we didn't see nearly as much penetration this week. Purdue's front four weren't all that great though. I've a few concerns about Ortmann being able to handle some of the better pass rushers in the league, but I don't think we'll see one until later. Ortmann tends to be a little too tall and can get off balance. Schilling should stay at guard. I really think Schilling only needs to develop better strength to become one of Michigan's better guards.

The good Henne showed up this weekend as well, and that had more to do with our offense putting up points than anything else. He made good reads and even better throws. I still don't like the jump-ball tosses, but at least Manningham battled for the ball this week.

Defensively, the front seven was at it's best this week. I've been hard on Chris Graham, but his performance against Purdue was his very best. He's still not a top-notch tackler, but he got his man on the ground this week and didn't overrun anything. He showed up in the middle of practically every Purdue WR screen, move around the blockers and often made the stop...just what we're looking for. Ezeh also played much more decisively. The secondary was solid against what I think will be the best set of WRs we'll see until OSU. Our defense has come along way over the last five weeks.

This Illinois game really scares me. Coach Carr mentions playing assignment football, and this is EXACTLY what has to happen this weekend, and it's not exactly the strong suit of some of our players. Crable and B.Graham in particular really worry me in this game, because they still tend to "freelance" rather than play their assignments. Crable busted the only zone read play that Purdue ran last week, and if he can't get his crap together against Illinois, we'll have some problems.

I've watched the Illini play twice. Williams is a pretty good runner, and has a big arm, but he isn't a particularly good thrower.I haven't seen much of McGee, save for a few running plays. Our defense HAS to keep this guy from running us to death and make him execute in the passing game. It is imperative that we shut down the run game..both the zone read and the option Looks that they will give us. We'll have to stay in some version of zone for most of this game to allow the DBs to help contain the option.

True zone reads and options will leave the DE unblocked and QB will read the DE to decide to keep or handoff/pitch. Our DEs have to play disciplined football, and not get "sucked in" to taking the RB on zone reads or being too aggressive in taking the QB on the options. It's generally better on option plays to "string out" the QB and allow pursuit to catch up and take the pitch man. We may see some actual "Veer" offense from Illinois this week as well..with two RBs that the QB uses as options. Our LBs also have to make good, quick reads and fill gaps on the Zone plays...and fly to the pitchman on options. We haven't been real disciplined here in the past either.

Offensively, our biggest barrier is playing on the road, and the possible loss of Hart. If Hart is out, our staff has to design some stuff that makes use of Brown's speed. Even if Hart plays, having someone like Brown as a change-of-pace back would be really nice. I think Illinois' defense is okay. Nothing about it really stood out. Seemed to be decently coached, but lacking any true playmaker. We should be able to put 30 on the board if all goes well. Defensively, I really think 21 points is a reasonable expectation. We're capable of holding them to less if we get our crap together. If we let Williams run all over the place...well...there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Run Offense vs. Illinois

Mike Hart's availability is in question, and even though Carlos Brown showed some speed and the ability to not fumble every other carry last week, losing Hart would be a hammer blow to the team. There is no replacement for him, whether it's in terms of leadership, ball security, tough yards after contact, or thumping blitz pickups against potential All-American linebackers.

Illinois, of course, features J Leman and some other guys as part of a decently stiff run defense currently 27th in the country. A closer look shows they crushed Missouri and gave up slightly more than 4 YPC to the tailbacks of Penn State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. No long runs distorted those stats; neither did quarterback sacks factor in. This is a better than average, but not great, run defense.

One thing to look for: in this morning's VEQ Iowa blogger Oops Pow Surprise indicated that the Illinois defensive tackles were two-gap sorts of guys keyed on occupying blockers and allowing J Leman and company to flow to the ball unimpeded. That won't work against Michigan's stretch plays, as on them the very idea of a double is forgone for a sure attempt at the second level. Illinois will have to adapt its strategy to cope. These are untested waters and there's a chance the Illini DTs find themselves lumberingly ineffective, paving the way for an unexpectedly robust Michigan ground attack.

If Brown plays, Michigan figures to go to a pass-first offense with Brown as a secondary option (at least... you'd imagine, right?); I would look for a lot of draws to get Brown in space and a lot of plays with a lead fullback to help cut down on his occasionally questionable vision. One more item to look for given Brown's sojourn as corner this spring and his iffy blocking against Purdue: the deployment of someone else in obvious passing downs. It might be Moundros. It might be Hart -- even if he can't cut he can pick up linebackers.

Key Matchup: Mike Hart versus Angry Michigan Running Back Hating God. In comparison, little else matters. We'll also throw in a bonus key matchup: Illinois DTs versus Their Ability To Penetrate. Michigan has struggled with quick (relatively) little bastards thus far.

Pass Offense vs. Illinois

Illinois is blitz-mad and seriously iffy elsewhere. Colin chips in observations from the Iowa game:

Jake Christiansen was clearly not that good, but shredded the Illinois pass defense any time his offensive line figured out their blocking schemes, which they are clearly not good at doing. They blitz all the time, presumably because they figure 6 and 7-man zones aren't going to do much better. Behind these blitzes they play soft zone, I'd guess cover 3. They do blitz with some ingenuity and they do have the athletes to get to the quarterback, but they can't usually get pressure with the front four without some kind of snafu up front.

Shooting Blue provides some encouraging numbers:

• Andrew Robinson, Syracuse - 17/26, 208 yards, 8 yards/attempt
• Kellen Lewis, Indiana - 26/51, 263 yards, 5.2 yards/attempt
• Anthony Morelli, Penn State - 21/38, 298 yards, 7.8 yards/attempt
• Tyler Donovan, Wisconsin - 27/49, 392 yards, 8 yards/attempt
• Jake Christensen, Iowa - 17/25, 182 yards, 7.3 yards/attempt

Yes, 4/5 games averaging 7.3+ YPA is an indication of some serious suck in your secondary, especially when quarterbacks from Penn State, Syracuse, and Iowa are featured. Chad Henne is way better than all these guys. The Michigan receivers are way better than everyone on those teams save James Hardy. Illinois' top corner is Vontae Davis, a freshman All-American a year ago but still just a sophomore; past Davis they've gotten little contribution
from an array of lightly recruited players.

Henne, meanwhile, has rebounded from an atrocious opening game and a half to pick apart secondaries in three consecutive games. He was nearly perfect against Purdue and is finally rounding into the form Michigan fans expected/hoped for going into the year. Obviously this is not a stable equilibrium yet -- there is always the chance for inexplicable regression given Henne's career to date -- but if there's an aberration in the last two years of Henne's career, stretching back to just before the 2005 Ohio State game, it's the poor play, not the good play.

Add in Mario Manningham's return to deep form, the emergence of Adrian Arrington as an all-around threat who can leap out of the stadium, and Greg Mathews establishing himself Avant 2.0, and there is a clear opportunity here to put up huge numbers here.

Key Matchup: Boren, Brown, and Butler versus Various Blitzers. Pick up the blitzes and there is no way -- no way -- Illinois covers Manningham, Arrington, and Mathews.

Run Defense vs. Purdue

Oh, the terrible danger. Illinois is basically the Appalachian State offense with an NFL-caliber running back and a faster, bigger quarterback. The Illini are eighth nationally in rushing offense, deploy the spread option to devastating effect, and are playing Michigan. Woe is very much a possibility.

Meanwhile, Michigan has recovered from its opening debacles to become a respectable defense, though the only spread option attack they've faced since was Northwestern's and the Wildcats racked up 300-some first half yards and sprung a 50-yard touchdown run from a slow backup running back.

The hope here is that the Appalachian State game was an anomaly borne of incredible arrogance on the part of the Michigan coaches -- the odd hopes we have -- and that Illinois won't be able to threaten the devastating passing game Oregon used to shred Michigan by air and land. Oh, and that the reinforcements on the defense will help it suck considerably less.

Expect a ton of zone from Michigan. It won't matter much if Michigan tips off its coverages like that because the Illinois receivers aside from Benn suck and so do the quarterbacks. If Illinois wishes to throw on first down, Michigan will welcome it.

Zone allows the cornerbacks to look into the backfield and react to the option. Iowa deployed its traditional 4-3 despite going up against 3 or 4 wide receivers much of the day; Michigan may choose to go with something similar, dropping Crable back to be a linebacker or, more likely, bringing in a full four-man defensive line and deploying Crable as a standup DE. Containment will be key: Crable has blown contain several times the past three weeks by collapsing on zone read fakes, allowing the quarterback to get outside of him. This cannot happen against Illinois.

Key Matchup: Chris Graham, Obi Ezeh, and Shawn Crable against Mental Implosion. As Alan says, option football is assignment football. Michigan has the athletes to keep up on the edges, but they are prone to mental breakdowns that will be deadly against Illinois.

Pass Defense vs. Illinois

Juice Williams is the worst quarterback Michigan will play this year unless his freshman backup Eddie McGee enters the game, in which case it'll be a close runoff between the two. Williams is completing 55% of his passes this year -- up from last year's incredible 39% -- but is averaging just 5.2 YPA and has five interceptions to five touchdowns. Every once in a while they'll run play action and try to hit Arrelious Benn deep, but other than that Illinois mostly passes only when they have to, and that poorly.

Meanwhile, the Michigan secondary has shaped up considerably since the post-apocalyptic Oregon game, with a major assist from Brandon Graham and a newly slavering defensive line. Michigan held down CJ Bacher and the suddenly unstoppable Northwestern offense, forcing a quartet of second-half turnovers, and completely destroyed Curtis Painter and Purdue. Neither of these teams is exactly... uh ... Kentucky (it's a weird year in college football), but then again neither is Illinois.

Michigan will probably sit back in a soft-ish zone much of the day and zone blitz heavily, attempting to confuse whoever's chucking ducks into interceptions and bad reads. Benn will get several shots at long receptions; Michigan will be playing off; the big danger is that the powerful Benn pulls a Braylon on one of the jump balls hurled skyward.

Key Matchup: Morgan Trent versus Arrelious Benn. Historically, Trent has been very difficult to beat deep. If Michigan can rely on him to deal with Benn without a safety bracket, things get much easier up front.

Special Teams

Benn returns kicks for Illinois; the winning margin against Penn State was a kickoff return score. Meanwhile, Michigan's kick coverage has been atrocious and its attempts at mitigating said atrocity have been equally atrocious. With opponents generally starting at the 30 or beyond and a dangerous returner to deal with, expect popups and squibs. Heck, kicking it directly OOB doesn't seem like such a bad deal these days.

Kyle Hudson is averaging under 8 yards per punt return and is no threat to do anything except catch a punt and run into a nearby player.

Illinois punter Anthony Santella sucks; Illinois is 98th nationally in gross yards an 111th in net. Greg Mathews is unlikely to get any return opportunities, as he'll usually be fair-catching 34 yarders. Kicker Jason Reda is a perfect 9 for 9 on the year.

Key Matchup: Kick coverage versus Benn. Or kick coverage versus upbacks.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Hart's on the sideline, obviously.
  
• Our defensive tackles are as ineffective as they were in the first two games.
  
• Mendenhall gives you flashbacks to Jonathan Stewart.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Illinois blitzes don't get there.
  
• Illinois is consistently in second and long.
  
• Henne is on.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 8 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Ack Spread Option, +1 for Ack Ack Run-Heavy Spread Option, +1 for Oh, God, What About Hart, +1 for And It's A Road Night Game, -1 for They Throw Like Jimmah).

Desperate need to win level: 8 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Win This And We Play OSU For The Rose Bowl, Basically, +1 for Hart Can Win The Heisman If That Happens, +1 for I Am Going And Don't Want To Ruin What Should Be A Nice Weekend)

Loss will cause me to... be not at all surprised that we got shredded by a spread option team.

Win will cause me to... consider going to Wisconsin. But probably not.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Two competing historical trends with Lloyd Carr teams are at war: 1) Michigan can't stop the option to save its life, especially if that option comes from a spread shotgun, and 2) one dimensional offenses die against Michigan. This is a defiantly one-dimensional spread option attack; I don't know what to do with this.

Michigan seems somewhere between Wisconsin's suddenly nonexistent run defense and Iowa's traditionally responsible, veteran unit and will probably cede yards in chunks but get enough stops to put Illinois in passing downs regularly. I figure Michigan gives up one or two big plays, allows one distressingly impressive touchdown drive, and otherwise gives up a first down here or there, maybe a push into field goal territory, but mostly forces punts. The Illinois passing game is just too awful to have sustained success against a team that is probably not going to get run over like it's Indiana.

On offense... urg. At this point I believe Hart will be considerably limited. I do have enough faith in the common sense of the Michigan coaches to take one look at the last scholarship running back on the roster, the Illinois secondary, and Manningham/Arrington/Mathews/Butler/Henne and decide that without Hart they will put the game on their senior quarterback. They did not do this in the awful first half against Northwestern because they did not have said senior quarterback; they faced a similar situation last year at Penn State -- also a night game -- and came out slinging. I believe they'll do this again, and have much more success against a team with a secondary much flimsier than Penn State 2006 and much more reliant on blitzing to get pressure. I do expect them to try out the stretch a few times early to see if those two-gap tackles can adapt; we are not likely to see a ton of running unless it's effective early.

The quarterback numbers above indicate Michigan will have success doing this. If Michigan picks up the blitzes effectively, they win comfortably.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Hart does play a bit, mostly on third downs as a blitz pickup guy.
  
• Henne busts 300 yards and hits a season-high in attempts.
  
• 31-21, Michigan.