Upon Further Review: "Defense" Vs Oregon

The Maginot Line in action!

Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
M45	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	17	PA Stop
Zone read fake, Dixon forms up and delivers a strike to a wide open reciever (cover -2). Basically the entire defense bites on this fake, most relevantly Jamar Adams(-1) and Brandon Harrison(-1), who flies up at a guy running a little flat/screen route. This is the kind of thing we should be running from time to time to exploit excessively aggressive corners.
M28	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	8	Triple option
Zone read fake again into a speed option as the slot guy, who is Oregon's second tailback, motions into the backfield. Jamison(-2), unblocked, crashes down on Stewart, going up the middle, and gives up contain.
M20	2	2	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	10	Slant
This is truly outstanding: Johnny Thompson(-1) bites on nothing at all... there's not even any playfake, opening up a spot for an easy slant completion. Michigan blitzed here and didn't get there. (pressure -1, cover -1)
M10	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	10	Zone read handoff
They're in this no-huddle thing where they line up, fake a snap with Dixon doing the leg lift, and then check for a new call based on the defensive alignment. (I hate this thing, by the way, and wish I could think of some way to outlaw it. Quarterbacks no longer have to check themselves, they just let the coach make all the calls.) Anyway: this time they actually go with the zone read handoff here; Taylor(+1) times the snap and gets a good push into the backfield. Thompson(-1) sort of runs forward, arms extended like he's blind, and getes chopped to the ground uselessly. Then Stewart just makes an awesome play, leaping through a thicket of arms and helmets, landing on his feet, and grinding towards the endzone. Our defense this day was atrocious, but part of that was because Jonathan Stewart is an outstanding player.
M1	1	G	Ace 3-Wide	Goal line	Run	0	QB sneak
Slipped as he got the snap.
M1	2	G	Shotgun 3-Wide	Goal line	Penalty	-5	False start
Note: this is a the “1” but is really the one-inch line, thus the M5 on the next play.
M5	2	G	Shotgun Tight	Nickel	Pass	Inc	PA Rollout
Zone read fake; Dixon keeps and has one guy on a wheel plus the other outside receiver crossing at the back of the endzone. He throws; Donovan Warren is close enough to break it up. (+1, cover +1)
M5	3	G	Shotgun 5-wide	Nickel	Pass	-1	WR screen
Brandon Harrison(+2) reads this and attacks before he can get blocked, disrupting the play. This is never a good call inside the five, IMO... too many bodies in enclosed space.
Drive Notes: FG(23), 0-3, 9 min 1st Q. Is this our best defensive stand of the day? Maybe.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O11	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	4	Stop
Zone read fake. Dixon sets and throws behind his guy, preventing any YAC. Same play as the slant on the previous drive; bad throw and timing turned that into a stop.
O15	2	6	Shotgun 4-wiide	Nickel	Pass	75	Bomb
Dixon has all day to throw (pressure -3). Brandon Harrison(-3) is burnt all crispy by Paysinger. Harrison just gets run right by. WTF? (Cover -2.)
Drive Notes: Touchdown(2 pts), 7-11, 4 min 1st Q. We're out of position on the swinging gate and give up a two-pointer. Yay yay yay.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O23	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	7	Zone read handoff
I'm not sure how Michigan can defend this better. Jamison has to stay outside to prevent Dixon from pulling the ball out and running. He collapses down and tackles Stewart, but Stewart is like 240 pounds of rapidly moving anger and he falls forward for a lot. I guess Chris Graham could have been more aggressive, but an aggressive Chris Graham is a Chris Graham who's running himself way out of position.
O30	2	3	???	Nickel	Pass	12	Stop
No formation here because of TV. As we come back to the play Dixon is firing a twelve-yard stop route. (Pressure -1, cover -1).
O42	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Penalty	-5	False start
O37	1	15	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	13	Scramble
Graham comes through unblocked on a blitz, Dixon just runs the hell away from him. I don't even think Jamison is blamable here, as he was set up pretty far outside. Once he gets around him, there's acres of space. This is something you just have to live with sometimes when you're playing a quarterback as fast as Dixon.
50	2	2	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	6	Zone read handoff
Stewart breaks Chris Graham's tackle(-1) that would have stiffed this for no gain, then grinds forward for a first and more.
M44	1	10	Shotgun Big	Nickel	Run	2	Offtackle
Crable crashes in recklessly as he was not in position when the ball was snapped – most of the defense wasn't actually – and gets hurdled. Michigan is fortunate that this didn't go for a big gain.
M42	2	8	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	8	Triple option
Zone read fake inside to Stewart is coupled with an option play using one of the wide receivers as a potential pitchman. Since Thompson(-1) and Harrison(-1) react to this slowly, there's no need for a pitch.
M34	3	In	Ace Big	Nickel	Run	1	QB sneak
For the first.
M33	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	-7	Fumbled snap
Yay yay yay.
M40	2	17	Ace 4-Wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Stop
Simple stop route ten yards downfield is wide open (cover -1); it's a little behind the receiver but catchable. Dropped anyway.
M40	3	17	Ace 5-Wide	Nickel	Pass	8	Scramble
Dunno WTF the Oregon tackle is thinking, but he just decides to not block Jamison. Jamison(-1) overruns the QB ridiculously, letting Dixon outside to scramble for about half the yardage.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(49), 7-11, EO 1st Q. Note that this “stop” has nothing to do with the Michigan defense: a fumbled snap, a dropped pass, and a blown blocking assignment. This is what we're banking on versus Notre Dame.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	18	Zone read handoff
This is Johnson, not Stewart. And this is too easy. Crable(-1) streaks upfield, opening a big lane. Terrance Taylor(-1) gives up that gap at the snap, getting sealed on a textbook easy zone block that allows the guard to come out and pound Chris Graham. The defensive line gave the linebackers no chance.
O43	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Stop
Zone read fake. Trent(+1) breaks on this ball and breaks up the pass(!!!). A nice play. (Cover +1)
O43	2	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	7	Zone read handoff
Same motion into the backfield that created the first triple option of the day; this time they go with the handoff. Taylor(-1) slants inside, giving up the same gap he did earlier in the drive. Graham(-1) is blocked to the ground, and there's a major gap.
50	3	3	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	5	Zone read handoff
Same play. Crable(-1) keeps contain but when he dives down to take the tailback he misses the tackle.
M45	1	10	???	Nickel	Pass	7	Short out
They hurry to the line and snap it this time, catching Michigan (and the ABC producer) off guard. A short pass is open (cover -1) at the sideline. Michigan misses an opportunity to keep this to a small gain as Donovan Warren(-1) misses a tackle.
M38	2	3	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	13	TGDCD!
Jumpin' Jehosephat. This is That God Damned Counter Draw. You know, the one Michigan was burned on time and again during the Year of Infinite Pain. But this time there's no running back. Dixon rolls to the right for a bit, then the two OL on the left side of the line get down and chop their guys as Dixon takes off to the wide open backside. This is a called run. And it works brilliantly. Chris Graham(-2) is supposed to be on the weakside here; when Michigan has corralled this it's because the WLB stayed home.
M25	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	14	Statue of Liberty
This actually shouldn't work. Adam Patterson has shot past an attempted block by Jeremiah Johnson(+1) and has Stewart dead to rights, but just runs past him. (-2). Graham also takes a terrible angle (-1) and then Stewart just does his thing.
M11	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	2	Zone read handoff
John Thompson, unblocked, attacks the hole and tackles. Why is he unblocked? I dunno. Brandon Logan also helpful. Probably good play by the DTs this time.
M9	2	8	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	0	Scramble
Flushed out of the pocket by Brandon Graham(+1, pressure +1) and an unidentifiable linebacker. Good coverage (+1) on the roll and Adams keeping him in front of him keeps this from any yardage.
M9	3	8	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	6	Scramble
Dixon can't find anyone (cover +1), and is flushed by Brandon Graham(+1, +1 pressure).
M3	4	2	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	3	Zone read handoff
Stewart right up the middle. Johnson(-1), Taylor(-1); these guys have both been massive disappointments.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-18, 10 min 2nd Q.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O20	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	8	Zone read handoff
Massive hole inside as Oregon takes advantage of a large split between Crable and Taylor. Thompson(-1) waves aimlessly at the passing Stewart.
O28	2	2	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	23	Zone read handoff
Complicated dance here; they pull a guard around to block Crable after the zone fake that holds him outside; this works. Then they pull the tight end around this guard to come up and block Thompson. This works. Stewart flies up to the outside, evading the late tackle attempt of Jamar Adams(-1) and Brandon Harrison(-2) being reckless on the outside.
M49	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	4	PA short out
Zone read fake to a pass play; Dixon throws high to a relatively covered reciever. Harrison makes an immediate tackle. (Cover +1)
M45	2	6	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	7	Short out
Quick snap – we aren't set – and a rollout to the short side to set up an out at the sticks. Dixon is off, forcing the reciever to retreat; we cannot tackle him anyway and he gets the first. (cover -1)
M38	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	-2	Zone read handoff
John Ferrara (+2) defeats a block on the inside, closing the hole and making a TFL. I remember when this happened with regularity. Jamar Adams, drawn up, prevents him from hopping outside.
M40	2	12	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	1	Zone read handoff
Is this Ferrara's doing again? He gets shoved back a bit but is enough of a bother such that both men blocking him keep blocking him, allowing Graham and Ezeh to congregate unharried. We'll give him a +1.
M39	3	11	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	14	Scramble
Before the play, Griese is confused by Michigan not covering the slot guy, thus tipping their obvious zone coverage. He thinks this is dumb. Thank you, Griese. Finally someone points this out on the teevee after years and years of it. Anyway: Michigan's zone covers this just fine(+1). But Chris Graham(-3) runs his ass off attempting to cover someone on a nothing crossing route, opening up vast areas of field for Dixon to run up into. Worst linebacker ever.
M25	1	10	Shotgun 5-wide	Nickel	Pass	11	Deep stop
Oregon's stacked Stewart and Johnson, their two RBs, at the bottom of the formation. Obviously this has some interesting stuff associated with it. This is just a simple stop route that Dixon throws high but well enough in front of Donovan Warren. (Cover -1.)
M14	1	10	Shotgun two-back	Nickel	Penalty	5	Offsides
Taylor(-1).
M9	1	5	Shotgun two-back	Nickel	Run	9	Statue of Liberty Fake
This is pretty fricking cool, the way they set this up earlier. Jamar Adams(-1) buys this hook, line and sinker, as does Thompson(-1). Hell, every-damn-body bought this, including Ferrara(-1). Easy.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-25, 4 min 2nd Q. This drive is the difference between Mike Debord and Chip Kelly, and the decision to hire a guy who's proven he can light up opposing defenses at UNH (UNH!) instead of your buddy is the difference between Carr and Bellotti or Miles.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O39	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	61	Post
This into a three-deep zone. Disgusting. Jamar Adams(-4) decides not to cover the guy. (pressure -2, cover -4)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-32, 3 min 2nd Q.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O20	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	14	Zone read handoff
Right up the middle. Taylor(-1) and Johnson(-1) are single blocked and creased, Graham(-1) meekly accepts a block.
O34	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	8	Stop
Zone read fake; easy open gainer. (Cover -2)
O42	2	2	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Out
Dixon zings this over a guy open for the first down. (Cover -1)
O42	3	2	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	-2	Zone read handoff
We... stop... them? Crable(+1) and Thompson(+1) slice into the backfield for the stop.
Drive Notes: Pu... Punt?, 7-32, 13 min 3rd Q.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O32	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	-12	Sack
Dixon has time but can't find anyone (cover +2). Harrison (+1) flushes Dixon and Taylor(+1) surprisingly tracks him down.
O20	2	22	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	4	Zone read handoff
Jamar Adams(+1) comes up to fill this near the LOS. Just fine given the down and distance.
O24	3	18	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Dig
Incomplete and dropped; not going for the first anyway. Cover +1.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-32, 10 min 3rd Q.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
M37	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Deep cross
Faked end around gets a wide reciever wide open (cover -2). Ball is a little behind and dropped.
M37	2	10	Shotgun two-back	Nickel	Run	7	Zone read handoff
Ferrara(-1) blown off the ball, opening up a hole behind him.
M30	3	3	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	8	TE out
Thompson(-1) gets shoved by the TE as he runs his out and coverts the first down. (Cover -1)
M22	1	10	Shotgun 5-wide	Nickel	Pass	2	Jailbreak screen
Dixon overthrows this badly. Brandent Englemon(+1) reads it and comes up to snuff it out.
M20	2	8	Shotgun Tight	Nickel	Run	9	Power iso
A tackle and TE pull around to obliterate linebackers; Ferrara(-1) blown off the ball along with Gallimore(-1) (BRETT GALLIMORE!)
M11	1	10	Shotgun two-back	Nickel	Run	1	Triple option
Dixon keeps this. Thompson(+1) does well to beat a block and eliminate a pitchman. Crable(+1) stays responsible and corrals Dixon.
M10	2	9	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	8	Triple option
Gut handoff to Johnson this time. This is embarassing. Crable(-1) misses a tackle, as do Englemon and Trent. Trent's fortunate to force a fumble and fall on it.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-32, 6 min 3rd Q. Yay?
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O49	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	5	Zone read handoff
Whatever.
M46	2	5	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	46	Bomb
Johnny Sears(-3). Awful coverage. He's in a deep zone and decides to ignore the guy he's lined up over. Aaaaand defensive charting stops here. (Cover -4)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-39, 2 min 3rd Q.

WTF?

You got me. The most damning thing to me: two of Oregon's long touchdowns were thrown into wussy three-deep coverage designed to prevent any long completions. On both, one of the guys in the three deep just decided not to cover a guy running a fly route right in their zone. Result: doom. By now we kind of expect that from Johnny "-3" Sears, but the other culprit was three-year starter and senior Jamar Adams.

Oh, but there's plenty of damning to go around. Chris Graham remains an easy starter on the Todd Howard All Stars*, always running hither and thither without any care as to where he should actually go. He doesn't defeat blocks or read plays or do basically anything well. Jonas Mouton's been held out the first couple weeks with an ankle injury; hopefully he will replace Graham as soon as he's healthy. Both interior defensive linemen have been disappointments. Neither has provided anything in the way of game-altering plays or even running lanes clogged. John Ferrara had the most positive impact of any DT, and no offense to him but that bodes unwell.

*(A team of the worst players in the Carr era who started regularly. Coming soon.)

Chart?

I guess. You aren't going to like it.

Player	+	-	T	Notes
Jamison	-	4	-4	Hopefully will be more of a menace against non-spread runners.
Johnson	-	2	-2	Did little; not the worst offender, but last year we were getting production from this spot.
Taylor	3	5	-2	Looks much worse as the main guy.
Gallimore	-	1	-1
Ferrara	3	3	0	Actually made a few plays; may be promising.
Crable	2	3	-1	Not a defensive end.
B. Graham	2	-	2	Has played little in the first two weeks; if healed looks like he will be a help.
Patterson	-	1	-1
Thompson	2	6	-4	Yuck.
Ezeh	-	-	-	Hardly played.
C. Graham	-	9	-9	Awful.
Trent	1	-	1	Our best defensive player? That would say it all.
Harrison	3	6	-6	One! One long touchdown... ah ah ah
Sears	-	3	-3	Two! Two long touchdowns... ah ah ah
Warren	1	1	0	(Ok.)
Adams	1	7	-6	Three! Three long touchdowns... ah ah ah
Englemon	1	0	1	Oh, Brandent. Always with the 1-0-1 line. How blameless you are.
"Pressure"	2	8	-6	Eh.
"Coverage"	9	28	-19	It's a three deep zone! You can't give up long touchdowns in a three deep zone! What's the point of anything? Why don't I just die?

Uh... pay no attention to the text next to "coverage." So... violence has been done unto everyone via numbers, and that was only about 2/3rds of that abortion.

Is there any hope at all?

Maybe if Jonas Mouton and Brandon Graham come back from injury and are effective players we will get a boost; also it'll be quite a bit easier going up against Jimmah and Notre Dame's offensive line, which appears to suck at a level even beyond that of Michigan's defense. But, long term: no. The linebacker play is atrocious and will remain so. At this point you may as well throw in Ezeh and Mouton in the hopes that they can learn. The secondary is atrocious and will remain so. Any time we want to go to a nickel we have to put two of the following players on the field:

• a true freshman
• a midget who can't even run fast
• Johnny Sears.

A hypothetical dime package would see all three on the field. Plus, our safeties are Michigan safeties. Finally, the DL has been a huge disappointment. Crable is a useless defensive end; Jamison has had no impact; the DTs have been pushed around time and again.

Things will get better, but bad is as good as it gets this year.

Come on, there must be some bright spots here or there.

Maybe Morgan Trent is a lot better? And John Ferrara made a couple plays as a redshirt freshman, so that's good. But that's it.

What does it mean for Notre Dame?

This is it for the defense. Notre Dame's offense has three points in two games -- the ten they put up against PSU were off an interception return and a punt return that led to a field goal. If they are to be anything other than Indiana in winged helmets, they have to do the proverbial "step up" and club Jimmah and company to the ground.

Can they do this? Uh... well. I expect things will be a lot better against that OL and a true freshman quarterback who's not that much of a run threat. But I also expect busted coverages, sporadic runs, and one or two hair-pulling moments.

Oh, who am I kidding? Four to six.

Upon Further Review: Offense Versus Oregon

No video, sorry. Still downloading.

Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M24	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	4	Hart	Zone counter
I don't know exactly what to call this, but this is actually a variation on our traditional zone left to start the ballgame. Massey is lined up off the line and on the snap cuts to the backside of the formation to block the defensive end tradtional zone schemes leave alone. The rest of the play is basically a zone left except Hart knows he's cutting back. This works well, but Hart miscalculates in an attempt to get outside the linebacker and leaves three or four yards on the field.
M28	2	6	Ace Twins	Run	7	Hart	Zone counter
Virtually the same play but this starts right and comes back left. Butler's actually in on this snap and is the TE cutting across the LOS as Oregon attacks the frontside fiercely. Hart hurdles some traffic and plows out for a first down. These first two plays do a good job of playing off our tendencies.
M35	1	10	Ace Twins	Pass	30	Butler	Waggle
Same set as the last play: two Tes to on side, two WR to the other. We play action the waggle and bring Butler along the same route he took on the last play. This suckers the weakside linebacker something fierce and Butler is wide, wide open. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
O35	1	10	Ace	Run	4	Hart	Zone right
Beautifully blocked with a gaping hole off the right side; unfortunately Schilling falls down as he moves to the second level, leaving the WLB to fill the hole without having to deal with a blocker.
O31	2	6	Ace Splits	Pass	-5	Manningham	WR screen
DeBord's done a great job of mixing up his stuff, playing off our tendencies, and generally proving he's not a dumb robot... but he kind of blows it on this play, which is the same screen we've run a dozen times over the past two years where Michigan takes two Tes but lines up in a four wide, then motions one TE to a cluster at the top of the screen featuring the other TE and the designated screeny guy. Michigan always runs a screen when they motion into this formation. They do so here. Oregon has this scouted and attacks; Butler hauls down a defender for a penalty. Holding, but five yards downfield. (CA, 3)
O36	2	11	I-Form Strong	Pass	Int	Manningham	Bomb
A completely inexcusable ball into a safety who hardly has to move to pick the ball off. (BR, 0) A replay shows Adrian Arrington open by ten yards for a huge gain. (Protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q. Debord starts the game off with a series of clever plays that play off both each other and Michigan's tendencies, then blows it on two downs by doing something predictable and then something just dumb. Henne cannot throw this ball, either. What the hell could he be looking at?
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M29	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Run	-1	Hart	Zone right
Here endeth the Debord smartness: Michigan puts three wide receivers and a fullback on the field, then shuffles the fullback. If you're counting at home, fullback shuffle is currently reading 100% run. Oregon is counting, runs the safety up to the side of the shuffle and stuffs this in the backfield. This had no chance because Oregon knew exactly what was coming.
M28	2	11	Ace 3-wide	Run	17	Hart	Zone right
Massive backside hole because Justin Boren deposits one Oregon DT in the stands and Long cuts the other to the ground. By the time Hart gets the ball there's one DE futilely chasing and a linebacker who has to deal with Kraus. Hart can just scoot up without delay for a big gainer.
M45	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	3	Hart	Zone right
Eight in the box this time. But Michigan runs anyway because like whatever. Schilling doesn't get any push on his guy and the zone block in the middle is similarly stonewalled. Hart rushes up into a wad.
M48	2	7	Ace 3-wide	Pass	35	Manningham	Slant
Wide open for an easy first; Manningham(+2) dodges a tacker and gives a few yards to set up a picket fence of blockers along the sideline to turn this from a twelve yard gain into a big gainer. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1) I don't like how Manningham just runs out of bounds here. He could pick up another couple if he tried to cut inside.
O17	1	10	Ace Twins	Pass	2	Henne	Scramble
Waggle; this isn't shown but from my seats it was plainly obvious that Arrington was wide open. (BR)
O15	2	8	Ace 3-wide	Run	6	Hart	Zone left
Oregon's DT does not react quickly enough to Butler's motion across the formation – the middle linebacker has to come up and tap him – and Michigan catches he guy as he's still moving into position; he gets blown off the ball. Hart ends up cutting behind the two guys plowing him, bumping into Mitchell as he does so and falling forward for six.
O9	3	2	Ace Big	Run	3	Hart	Iso
This is jammed up and crushed, no lanes anywhere; Hart bounces outside and manages to plow through two guys for a first down. Hart's essential Hart-ness.
O6	1	G	Ace Twins	Penalty	-5	Mitchell	False Start
O11	1	G	Ace Twins	Pass	4	Butler	Waggle
Again, this doesn't show up on TV but Arrington is wide open for a sure touchdown on this. Instead, a checkdown to Butler for four. A tentative CA. (CA-, 3, protection 1/1)
O7	2	G	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Hart	Flare
Hart is set up offset. This is always a pass. He flares out into the flat; Henne wings it well over his head. Hart was going nowhere on this anyway. (IN, 0)
O7	3	G	Ace 3-wide	Pass	7	Arrington	Cross
Thrown high, but within Arrington's range. He skies and stabs his foot down for the touchdown. (CA, 2). Arrington made this look easier than this is.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-3, 5 min 1st Q.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M38	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	4	Hart	Zone right
Hole is between Boren and the DT on the backside who Kraus cuts. No second-level blocks so Hart can't get more than a few.
M42	2	6	I-Form Weak	Pass	18	Manningham	PA out
Arrington motions in tight here and makes like he's going to block; the only person in this route is Manningham. Again this is supposed to play off our incredible predictability... we never pass out of something like this.(Hardly anyone does with one-man routes, too) It works; Manningham is wide open and Henne hits him. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
O40	1	10	Ace	Run	11	Hart	Zone left
Jake Long obliterates the defensive end, shoving him yards downfield. Kraus walls off the DT and there's a gaping hole Hart makes the most of, juking his way to extra yardage.
O29	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	6	Brown	Zone counter
Same TE pull. The immediate reaction: of course we put in the guy with a broken hand and he fumbles. But this is probably just the general bloody-mindedness of the universe more than anything else. Other than the crushing fumble, this is a nicely blocked play and Brown did just fine cutting up into the hole.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-11, 3 min 1st Q. Seriously, God. WTF?
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M32	1	10	I-Form	Run	3	Hart	Zone left
We motion Massey away from the playside. Pretty decent push from the OL but no creases for Hart, he runs up into a wad for three.
M35	2	7	I-Form	Pass	Inc	Hart	PA out
Same exact play we ran earlier that got Manningham 18. This time Manningham is covered and the zone blocking that imitates a run play turns a DT loose; Henne hammered as he throws. Re-using this play is stupid. It's a one-man route that has no backup plan if that's covered other than a throw to Hart in the flat after he's been faked to and has lienbackers in his face. Henne's throw is an atttempt to use this option, but is wildly inaccurate because of the hit. (PR, 0, protection 0/1)
M35	3	7	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	14	Manningham	Cross
Manningham brought in motion in close; Oregon blitzes the hell out of this. The drag route is wide open, Henne lays it in. (CA, 3, protection 3/3). Nice blitz pickup.
M49	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	18	Arrington	Stop
Simple play where Arrington's guy is eight yards and bailing off the snap of the ball. He sits down after five yards, beats the corner with a juke, and picks up major YAC. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O33	1	10	Ace	Run	16	Manningham	Reverse
Manningham to the short side of the field in tight to the line. Manningham comes around and the crashing defensive ends give up contain. Result: open field. We haven't run one of these in forever and I don't know why... the zone forces defensive ends to chase down from the backside like crazy and this sort of thing is likely to be open frequently.
O17	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	0	Hart	Zone left
We run into seven guys, the equivalent of eight when we have three wide receivers, for little as Oregon's linebackers are slanted heavily to the playside. Predictability? I hate this because the other guys are in an umbrella. Our two receivers to the weakside are in a position where they can run a combo route with the outside guy running the cornerback into the endzone and then the slot guy will be open for a guaranteed eight yards. It's an easy read we don't make. Henne? Debord? We'll never know who's at fault.
O17	2	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Mathews	Wheel(?)
Henne stands in confidently and fires high to Mathews streaking towards the endzone. He had few options here; everyone covered. Mathews himself was doubled and got knocked out anyway... very marginally CA. (CA-, 1, protection 2/2)
O17	3	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	-7	--	Sack
Henne hesitates and gets murdered by an unblocked, delayed blitzer. Has to read this and get rid of the ball. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(43), 7-11, 12 min 2nd Q. Hits the upright. If Henne gets rid of the third down ball, this is good.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M20	1	10	Ace	Pass	7	Arrington	Short out
Open for a decent gain. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M27	2	3	Ace Twins	Run	1	Hart	Zone counter
Oregon is wise-ish to this now, but Hart still has a nice lane if not for a crappy block/nice play on the part of Butler and the DE he's supposed to block. The DE refuses to get cut and fills the hole. Otherwise, a first down.
M28	3	2	Ace Trips	Pass	1 (10)	Manningham	Out/Holding
Bunch of wideouts all jammed into the short side of the field. Henne does a half-roll towards them as they spread into their routes, then fires high and hard to an open Manningham a yard downfield. Manningham makes the catch but the ball carries him OOB before the first down marker. (IN, 2, protection 1/1). Michigan gets bailed out by a holding call.
M38	1	10	Ace Trips	Run	18	Hart	Zone right
Manningham runs Breaston's old slip screen route as the handoff goes to Hart. It doesn't do anything – both linebackers are charging upfield – but the run goes for mucho yard as Long and Kraus crush their guys down the LOS and Massey(+1) gets his helmet across the defensive end.
O44	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	13	Hart	Zone left
We spread them out and it actually pays off: they have six in the box this time, perhaps expecting our default bomb when we cross midfield. We run to the weakside of the formation, away from the overshifted linebackers. Oregon expects a zone to the strong side and the DE to that side slants inside on the snap. Long walls him off. Butler, spread wide, walls off the guy lined up over him and the late-filling safety can't prevent Hart from getting outside.
O31	1	10	Ace	Pass	5	Arrington	Short out
Wide open as the corners are playing off. Henne gets it to him but is late and outside such that Arrington has no chance to turn it upfield. (CA-, 3, protection 1/1)
O26	2	5	Ace 3-wide	Run	2	Hart	Zone counter
There's no hole here as we do the same TE pull. The video does not provide evidence of why, probably on Alex Mitchell.
O23	3	3	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	-10	--	Sack
Zone blitz from Oregon sends a linebacker and a corner from the left. Kraus momentarily picks up the DE, then attempts to pick up the linebacker; a DE turned loose then sacks Henne. Hart(-2) spends this play on the other side of the formation, looking for someone to block. Boren doubled a DT instead of attempt to pick up a blitzer. This route was a slow developing one; I watched Manningham do the drag cross that was Breaston's favorite route a year ago when a quick out was an easy first down. (PR, protection 0/2, Hart -2)
Drive Notes: Idiotic Punt, 7-18, 7 min 2nd Q. Yay we get 13 yards of field position when our defense can't stop them. Quintessential Carr error.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M26	1	10	Ace 4-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Slant
Arrington bumped before the ball is there... potentially interference, but not called perhaps because he's looking at and possibly going for the ball. Good defensive play. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)
M26	2	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	--	Throwaway
Wings this one out of bounds at no one. (TA, protection 2/2)
M26	3	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Bomb
Manningham is wide open on this one but Henne throws it well outside and Manningham can't track it down. (IN, 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-25, 3 min 2nd Q.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M29	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	8	Hart	Zone left
Oregon's backed off and has only six in the box; neither do they overshift their linebackers. Long kicks out his guy, Boren and Kraus seal the DT, and Kraus gets out to the second level along with Massey. Textbook.
M37	2	2	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Long handoff
Henne throws this in the turf. (IN, 1)
M37	3	2	Ace 3-wide	Run	14	Hart	Zone left
This hole is enormous. There are huge splits between the DT and DE on the strong side and Michigan goes between them. All they have to do is wall off guys moving in the wrong directions; nice block from Kraus on the second level on a blitzing linebacker.
O49	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	8	Minor	Zone left
Same huge split, same result. This is completely insane and crap defense. WTF. There's been no shift on either play when Michigan motions the TE. Maybe they're afraid of the TE pull counter game. Must be it.
O41	2	2	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	11	Arrington	Delayed slant
Pitch and catch, a rare one. Massey runs a seam up the middle; Henne reads the linebacker and goes with the shorter option. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O30	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	0	Hart	Draw
Tackles set up to pass block as the interior line drive blocks; TE pulls around to help out in that effort. No matter as Kraus(-1) is beaten by a Samoan dude and he sticks Hart like whoah.
O30	2	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Cross
Crossing route is open for the first as Henne steps up into the pocket and throws. Some issues with guys as his feet but this is a makable throw. It's well behind Arrington and eventually dropped. (IN, 1, protection 2/2)
O30	3	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	-2	Henne	Scramble
The insane scramble for yards that he backs out of and tries to throw from. He eventually gets run out of bounds for a loss. The guy has lost it, man. The kicker: he had already crossed the LOS when he decided to start heading backwards. (BR, 0, protection 1/3)
O32	4	12	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	18	Manningham	Dig
Wide open; fired right in for the first. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O14	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	8	Hart	Zone left
Backside cut again as the backside DT gets blown off the ball by Mitchell and Schilling.
O6	2	2	Ace 3-wide	Run	-2	Hart	Zone left
Boren(-2) gets owned by the DT with all the vowels in his name, who swallows Hart in the backfield.
O8	3	4	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Deep cross
Same route as the earlier touchdown; Henne overthrows him. (IN, 1, protection 1/1)
O8	4	4	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Fade
Manningham totally covered here. Actually, every receiver was covered here despite Oregon sending six rushers. Henne had few options. Still (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs, 7-32, EO half.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M18	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	-2	Hart	Zone right
Boren plowed backwards by the DT again.
M16	2	12	Ace 3-wide	Run	2	Hart	Zone right
Uncharacteristic trip by Hart... because he's injured. I hate life.
M18	3	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Stop
Into double coverage, nearly picked off. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-32, 12 min 3rd Q.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M39	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Run	-3	Minor	Zone left
A repulsive playcall. We're down 25, have three wideouts on the field, and they have a legit eight men in the box. They fear a pass not at all. This is stuffed; it didn't have a chance from the moment Debord called it.
M36	2	13	Ace 3-wide	Pass	3	Manningham	Out
Eight men drop into coverage this time; Mallet checks down for three. But by God, it's a poised three yards. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M39	3	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	Int	Manningham	Dig
Ton of time... great protection. Mallett rifles it directly to Manningham, who appears to be falling down as the ball gets there. He deflects it: TO. (DO, 2, protection 3/3)
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-32, 9 min 3rd Q.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M6	1	10	Ace	Penalty	-3	Massey	False Start
(-1) yay
M3	1	13	Ace	Run	6	Minor	Zone left
Nice second level block from Kraus; effort reduced from here on out on running plays. Just Mallett.
M9	2	7	I-Form	Pass	5	Manningham	Long handoff
Almost Clausenesque in its magnificence, this screen. (CA, 3)
M14	3	2	I-Form	Run	8	Minor	Lead draw
Dunno why Oregon isn't being more aggressive here but they aren't. Given Oregon's actions all Minor has to do is run up into open space.
M22	1	10	I-Form	Run	-10	???	Holding
Whatever. This play was screwed from the start anyway.
M12	1	20	Ace 3-wide	Pass	-3	--	Fumbled snap
Whatever.
M9	2	23	Ace 3-wide	Run	-1	Minor	Draw
Sure, this is a tough situation, but this is a give up and punt call. Down four scores towards the end of the third.
M8	3	24	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Bomb
This is a little bit inside and well covered, allowing the CB to get a hand on it. (CA, 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-32, 3 min 3rd Q. Note: we're in stupid time now. All drives from now on end in no points, so I'm just going to chart what Mallett does irrespective of drives and so forth and so on.
Line	Down	Dist	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M23	1	10	I-Form	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Deep out
Thrown into coverage. Not sure if this is innacurate or a bad read. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
M23	3	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	21	Manningham	Improvisation
Mallett flushes out of the pocket and hits Manningham smartly for a good gainer. Excellent accuracy to keep it away from the DB and give Manningham a tough but catchable ball. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
M44	1	10	Ace	Pass	Inc	Butler	TE out
Batted at the line. Stared this one down a bit. (BA, 0)
M44	2	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	-4	Minor	Screen
Never had a chance. Did Mallett lead them to him with his eyes? Debatable. (CA, 3)
M40	3	14	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Bomb
Manningham sort of gives up on this route too early, but this was well overthrown anyway. (IN, 0, protection 1/2). Mallett took a guy at his feet as he threw this.
M12	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Dig
Sort of across the middle(!) for Mallett. Rifled high and hard, still catchable. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M27	1	10	Ace 4-wide	Pass	5	Mathews	Stop
Basic. (CA, 3). Mathews kicks out at one of the defensive backs after the play.
M32	2	5	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	-8	--	Sack
Massey gets obliterated by this DE, who comes off the backside just as Mallett starts his throwing motion. He brings it down for the sack. Not his fault at all. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Massey -2)
M23	3	13	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	23	Arrington	Improvisation
Mallett flushes away from heavy strongside pressure, waves Arrington downfield, and hits him for the first down. This is sort of badass. (DO, 2, protection 0/2)
M49	2	7	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Bomb
Double covered and badly overthrown. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M44	3	12	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Hemingway	Cross
Mallett gets blitz presssure – Schilling(-2) whiffs on a guy – and lofts a ball into double coverage. (BR, 0, protection 0/2)
O40	2	9	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Seam
Overthrown. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O40	3	9	Ace 3-wide	Pass	--	--	Fumbled snap
Weeeeee.
M25	2	5	Shotgun 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Mathews	Stop
A little outside, but maybe to keep it away from coverage. Mathews drops it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M25	3	5	Ace 4-wide	Pass	-5	--	Sack
Needs to check this down sooner. He has enough time to find someone. (TA, 0, protection ½)

#$*#*@(@#@*$#(#**@(#$($%(*(@(!(

Seriously.

We gained 65 yards with Mallett under center against a crap defense. We're gonna die.

That's not a question.

We're gonna die?

Maybe. Let's look at the...

Charts?

Charts.

Team	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Endless Fiasco	2	22	8	2	1	0	2
Oregon - Henne	1	13	6	3	1	0	3
Oregon - Mallett	3	7	2	3	1	1	2

(Legend for this one.) I was initially skeptical of Mallett's performance...

I'll go in and grab all the Mallett plays to evaluate how he did. (Not well is your answer.)

...but after reviewing the tape I think it was considerably better. If Manningham hadn't tripped, the interception would have been a rifleshot completion. Arrington also dropped a ball he could have gotten a first down on. Only once did he sit in the pocket to take a Sack of Ultimate Poise (the other sack was a blindside hit from a guy that schooled Masssey); twice he rolled out of trouble and found receivers downfield for long gainers. Michigan's failure to move the ball in the second half boils down to the following things:

• Predictable playcalling. It's bad even when we have our senior QB in there; with Mallett things were worse. Most egregious was the I-form zone play with six blockers against eight men in the box that had no chance. Michigan pissed away downs in an attempt to protect Mallett.
• Non-throwing errors. A holding call and a fumbled snap put Michigan in second and twenty-four on one drive; a punt soon followed.
• Dropped balls and misfortune. As noted, the interception should have been a completion; Arrington and Mathews also dropped balls.

I fear the first will not change. Michigan is going to run the ball from the first play from scrimmage and probably on most first downs, which might not be a bad strategy against a Notre Dame defense that's thin and prone to tiring as the game drags on, but you can't grind someone into dust if you're getting yourself in second and nine. The other stuff isn't really on Mallett. I mean, obviously he is less effective than a senior Henne, but when he got the ball and threw it the results were okay. Two things that are concerning: the fumbled snaps and the throws into coverage. Mallett was responsible for those things. I don't think the latter will get fixed, but since we've worked the shotgun into our passing offense maybe Mallett can work from that on all obvious passing downs? Texarkana ran that exclusively; he's used to it. There appears to be no reason whatsoever to go from under center on passing downs. I wonder if Michigan will ignore this because the expectation is for the position. I fear they will.

As for Henne: his worst performance since some of the really ugly ones in 2005. The opening pick was inexcusable: two Oregon players had better shots at the ball than Manningham did. Many of his throws were off, and the pocket presence thing remained an issue. The best summary of his day was the play he got injured on: instead of running up for six or seven yards and a makable fourth down, he scrambled out of the pocket, crossed the line of scrimmage, and then ran back behind it in an attempt to find someone to throw to, but could not even come close to squaring his shoulders and ended up losing two yards.

All told, I don't think Mallett's performance was any less effective than Henne's, though there's at least a chance Henne was having a bad day and is better than he showed. Mallett is likely to wing a couple balls directly into coverage Saturday.

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Manningham	2	0/7	2/3	6/6		2	0/2	3/4	9/9
Arrington	-	0/2	2/4	4/4		2	0/1	2/4	8/9
Mathews	-	0/1	-	1/2		-	0/3	1/1	7/9
Hemingway	1	-	-	-		1	-	-	-
Massey	-	-	-	-		-	0/3	1/1	2/2
Butler	1	-	-	2/2		1	-	-	2/2
Hart	1	-	-	-		1	-	-	-
Minor	-	-	-	1/1		-	-	0/1	2/2
Moundros	-	-	-	-		=	-	1/1	-

I think the most notable thing here is the staggering amount of 1s -- passes that would require a circus catch to haul in -- for Manningham. Some of those were instances of short coverage, but mostly that was deep balls he had no or little shot at. Some people are getting on Manningham for not putting in full effort, but I didn't really see that in my review of the game. There was nothing he could have caught that he gave up on, and he remains a slight guy unsuited for going up and getting a jump ball; none of the vaguely accurate passes hung up that much anyway... they were just a little off. His main problem is that he's not getting open as much.

Yeah, what's the deal with that?

No doubt this will come off as a damned if you do, damned if you don't sort of criticism, but Mike Debord's fondness for the deep ball appears to be hurting the offense. Several times this year Michigan quartebacks have lofted balls into three-deep coverage where there is very little hope of anything positive coming. Michigan's deep routes have almost all been well covered (when they have not, Michigan quarterbacks have missed their passes), probably because the timing of their shots downfield has been predictable. The most frustrating thing about watching this year's offense has been it's refusal to take advantage of two things:

• Adrian Arrington being eight inches taller than anyone on Appalachian State and
• the huge cushion Oregon was giving to both receivers all day.

Quick outs and slants would have been easy completions on several key plays -- I am thinking most prominently of a third and three in the second quarter that resulted in a sack -- but Michigan instead chose their traditional drag routes that depend on tremendous protection. It's really frustrating to see the Oregon defense in an obvious three deep zone when Michigan lines up two receivers to one side of the formation and then see Michigan throw a bomb into that coverage designed to stop it.

This is Michigan's problem in a nutshell. Far too often they run plays into obviously bad situation. You can blame this on the quarterback, I guess, but I think I've seen enough bullheaded rushes into stacked fronts to tell you that the quarterback is not the main issue. Many times Chad Henne will come to the line on first down with two options: a run and another run. This is the only way to explain our run-pass distribution on first and ten. Michigan would be better served if Henne was permitted to check into whatever would exploit the defense. He obviously does not have this power.

Meanwhile, Oregon loses Gary Crowton to Les Miles and brings in Chip Kelly, a guy who lit up I-AA at New Hampshire, and Kelly destroys the Michigan defense with plays both conventional and non-. That's the difference between Michigan and most programs: Oregon goes out and grabs a guy with a proven track record of beating other programs with similar talent; Michigan hires Lloyd Carr's old buddy without any sort of search because he needs a job after failing utterly at Central Michigan.

Why are the coaches sending in a kid with a broken hand to fumble?

Actually, I chalk this one up to the general bloody-mindedness of the universe. Brown should be able to hang on to one friggin carry even if he's got a small cast. No one will ever be able to convince me it was a good idea to not only play Broken Tim Massaquoi during the Year of Infinite Pain but throw him and his sizable cast rockets on third down, but this seems like a criticism we can skip.

Mathews?

My opinion: should be suspended for the Notre Dame game. That's not tolerable.

What does it mean for Notre Dame?

I remain encouraged we can score on them despite the issues against Oregon pending the healthy existence of Mike Hart, who has missed sections of both of Michigan's first two games. Minor is an obvious step down. Notre Dame has been okay in the early going of games but their run defense has worn down as the games have rolled on; if we can get offense going early we can duplicate the success of GT and Penn State. This will mean staying on the field, which will likely require some passing against a defense that knows it's going up against a true freshman.

How will this go? Well enough, I think. Mallett's numbers were not great but his performance belied that, and not just in a "what a poised screen" sort of way. Mallett's screen went for -4 yards. His completions were darts on rollouts, some of them in the middle of the field, and the receivers made about as many mistakes as he did. I assume the fumbled snap thing should go away; I further assume that not even Michigan is doofus enough to put this kid under center for no reason on passing downs. This may be a dodgy assumption. I don't think 50 points is in order, but 24-30 is doable. The keys will be not wasting downs coddling the kid and how many mistakes he makes. Michigan should come out throwing, because Notre Dame is going to assume run and sell out for it. I don't think they will; the low end is likely.

Oregon Open Thread

Uh, like... hopefully this one goes better.

Note: the TV thing got canceled until the station can also find a State guy. Frowns. Sorry to anyone who stayed up on Sunday.

Preview: Oregon

Run Offense vs. Oregon

This, at least, looks like an area of little concern. Oregon was shredded like whoah by the Houston Cougars last weekend, giving up 205 yards on just 22 carries to Anthony Aldridge and getting outgained(!) in a 48-27 victory. This was no fluke. In offseason scrimmages similar events occurred:

At the start of fall camp, Oregon defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti was asked about the apparent dearth of run-stoppers in his front seven.

"There's no cavalry coming," Aliotti said, acknowledging that the Ducks would have to try to stop opponents without the benefit of a run-stuffing body such as Matt Toeaina, Haloti Ngata, Igor Olshansky et al.

During Friday's scrimmage at Autzen Stadium, his defense not only couldn't stop ballcarriers but often failed to get a hand on them.

Running backs Jeremiah Johnson and Andiel Brown, as well as quarterback Nathan Costa, scored on runs of 69, 39 and 62 yards, respectively. All three were untouched.

Oregon was badly hurt by the loss of two big-time DTs from their 2007 recruiting class and the departure of Dexter Manley II, a rotation defensive end, in the offseason. It showed against Houston and is likely to show again against Michigan.

The run game was the one area Michigan fan's couldn't quibble much with after the Appalachian State game. Normally this would mean nothing -- grinding a I-AA opponent to dust is expected, after all -- but we are going to take what we can get. Aside from one Justin Boren bust on Michigan's second drive, the blocking was somewhere between good and excellent all day. Mike Hart must have had some sort of injury to miss sections of the second and third quarters, but a 54-yard touchdown run that will unfortunately not live in Michigan lore seemed to indicate he was fine. He should be 100% for the Ducks.

Key Matchup: Michigan versus its own playcalling. Fullback shuffles and a refusal to use play action were fine against a I-AA foe but even if Oregon is a terrible defense they'll have more size and talent than the 'Eers of Doom did. Plowing ahead on 2/3rds to 3/4ths of Michigan's first downs, as they did in the WVU game and many games last year, will hamper Michigan's offensive efficiency.

Pass Offense vs. Oregon

Was Mario Manningham eliminated by a 5'7" I-AA cornerback last week? Sort of, but not really. I counted four separate instances in which Manningham beat that guy downfield, but only one was accurate enough to be completed. This, of course, begs the question "why not try Arrington?" as Arrington would have dominated those midgets on underthrown Hopeful Jump Balls, but whatever. I'm rambling. Uh. Anyway: Oregon had a statistically excellent pass defense a year ago, but they did that on the wings of things like "Rudy Carpenter, 6 for 19 for 33 yards" and "someone called Carl Bonnell who is not Isaiah Stanback" and "14 total attempts for Arizona". Though Henne didn't exactly establish himself a Heisman contender in his first game, he's probably closer to Nate Longshore, John David Booty, and John Beck than the aforementioned trio. All of the latter trio had excellent days against the Duck defense foreshortened by the massive blowouts their teams were laying on them.

Herein lies a reason I may have been excessively optimistic about Oregon preseason and a major factor in that crazy Michigan + 8 line: that was all smoke and mirrors and the Oregon pass defense is ugly. Houston, breaking in a new quarterback for the first time since Kevin Kolb debuted against Michigan, was not a good test for this theory as two separate QBs completed a lot of passes for no yards -- screens, most likely -- and a pick each.

Given that Henne's off-ness is not likely to repeat, and this I do believe to be true, Oregon is ripe for the picking here, though it remains to be seen just how competent the right side of the offensive line is against actual live bodies.

Key Matchup: Henne versus inaccuracy. Michigan will ask Henne to complete two or three of those passes he missed against Oregon; I figure someone will be open. He just has to hit them.

Run Defense vs. Oregon

Oh, boy, this will be fun. Take Apppalachian State and upgrade everyone on the team to a D-I level player and make their tiny little darty guy the avatar of rage Jonathan Stewart is. And then put them up against Graham, Thompson, et al. Result: yikes. It was just Houston, sure, but Jesus H. Christ:

#	Player	No	Gain	Loss	Net	TD	Avg	Long
10	Dennis Dixon	15	172	31	141	1	9.4	80
19	Brian Paysinger	2	14	0	14	1	7	14
22	Andre Crenshaw	7	48	1	47	0	6.7	16
24	Jeremiah Johnson	11	73	3	70	2	6.4	19
28	Jonathan Stewart	14	72	5	67	0	4.8	24
	Totals	49	379	40	339	4

Holy clodhopping hell. I guess you can argue that an 80 yard touchdown run by your quarterback tends to distort things, but raise your hand if you don't expect Dennis Dixon to rip off something like ten yards a carry. Right. That's what I thought.

I don't necessarily buy the theory that Michigan will be more prepared to face Oregon's spread rushing attack than Appalachian State's because they are nearly identical. Oregon is a spread option run team that runs a zone read all the time, and the zone read is a basic play Michigan should already know how to defend given their run-ins with Texas and Northwestern and etc etc etc. No, Michigan was not taken by surprise. And, no, there's no reason to expect improvement. Chris Graham is a senior; Johnny Thompson is also in his fourth year in the program. The light, if it's not already on, is not likely to pop on now. Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh may offer some hope (in Mouton's case, if he's healthy enough to play) and the potential return of Brandon Graham from an ankle injury that limited his time against the 'Eers of Doom may help, especially if they make the 3-3-5 that did so well against spread rushing an option again, but I expect horror on an epic scale.

Key Matchup: Taylor and Johnson versus Oregon interior line. These two have to make more disruptive plays for Michigan to get Oregon in advantageous down and distance situations. If Michigan can't do it, they'll get tired in the pounding heat and there are evidently no backups.

Pass Defense vs. Oregon

Anyone who kept an eye on mgo.licio.us over the offseason probably knows about Dennis Dixon's inexplicable sojourn into minor league baseball this summer. Dixon, a talented player prone to baffling mental breakdowns, decided to pass up the chance to Akili Smith some poor team into drafting him and instead hit like .200 in summer league ball. This is not a wise decision, I think, when last year you got yanked for Ryan Leaf's untalented younger brother because you threw more interceptions than touchdowns.

Aside from the whole buckets of interceptions thing, though, Dixon was a prolific passer at times last year: 61% completions, 341 yards and two touchdowns in Oregon's "win" over Oklahoma (albeit with two interceptions), and 263 yards and two touchdowns against Cal (albeit with three interceptions). However, after that Cal game his productivity evaporated. He could not crack 150 yards passing the rest of the season, threw nine interceptions to two touchdowns, those against Portland State and BYU, and generally was the main reason Oregon's talent-laden offense clattered to a spectacular halt as the team imploded over the second half of the season. Against Houston he was infrequently deployed but effectively so: 9 for 15 with two touchdowns and 134 yards. And no interceptions, even.

Still, Dixon's proven little other than he's extremely effective at winging balls directly into defenders hands. He's exactly like that Appalachian State guy in that respect, and Michigan should dare him to throw the ball.

Key Matchup: Safeties versus falling down. The best way to turn a crappy passing attack into a great one is to turn a five yard completion into a 70 yard touchdown.

Special Teams

Oregon kicker Matt Evensen might be pretty crappy: prior to this year he was called upon to attempt twelve field goals across two years. He made five of them. He was two for two against Houston, but there's the possibility of a miss or two here. Oregon was a dangerous punt/kick return team a year ago (29th and 19th, respectively) and has an advantage over Michigan's non-Breaston return units.

Key Matchup: Let's block some blockerguys.

Intangibles

Kittens, don't fail me now.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• We get gashed early; more running equals more time on the field equals exhaustion equals more running.
  
• Henne's still off.
  
• Just worry.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Dennis Dixon finds himself rattled and in full-on interception mode.
  
• Um... we bring up a safety and we find a couple linebackers? And fairies descend from the sky bearing a time machine we can use to go back to a time before this all happened?
  
• Screw it, I like the fairies thing. Let's do that.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 I Was Already Frightened; +1 for AND THEN WE LOST TO A I-AA TEAM, +1 for THAT RUNS THE SAME OFFENSE OREGON DOES, +1 for AAAAAARRGH, +1 for IT BURNS!!!!!!).

Desperate need to win level: 3 out of 10. (Baseline 5; -3 for It's Not Like It Can Get Any Worse, +2 for Mike Hart Deserves Better, -1 for If I Get Emotionally Invested God Will Smite Us Again, +1 for Those Are Some Ugly Uniforms, Though, Shouldn't God Smite Them?)

Loss will cause me to... yawn, create detailed post about Michigan's coaching search, have inexplicable heaving sobs at various times during the week. (Note to mom: kidding!)

Win will cause me to... yawn, create detailed post about Michigan's coaching search, privately concoct ridiculous national championship scenarios.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: Unpredictable shootout coming with lots and lots of running. Presumably Michigan wises up too late about the dare-them-to-throw thing and gives up a touchdown or two aerially just to spite my assertions about how Michigan should play this game. Offensively, I don't think Henne was that bad against Appalachian State and the have no answer for Hart. Up and down it goes; in the final estimation I believe Michigan will piss away a field goal here and a touchdown opportunity there as Dixon runs to his heart's content and Michigan comes up with another loss.

The wildcard here, though, is turnovers. Oregon is liable to lose a lot of 'em, and if M ends up +1 or +2, which seems fairly likely, they should be in to win.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Oregon goes with the neon yellow helmets, green jerseys, and white pants.
  
• Henne looks much better, like 65% plus Manningham touchdown better.
  
• 34-32, Oregon.