Wizard Hat And Snake Oil, 2008-2008

DIED, by balloon-puncturing quote after a short period of general crotchetiness and incomprehensibility: "Wizard Hat and Snake Oil," meme, aged approximately two months.

Roy Roundtree in the Dayton Daily News:

"You know what?" Roundtree said. "It was my decision."

The Columbus Dispatch:

Last December, Melvin Fellows orally committed to play football for Illinois, declared his decision final and said, "This is the end of the process for me."

According to a vague, unwritten Big Ten code of conduct, at that point Fellows was off limits to other league coaches. That's how it is supposed to work, at least -- once a kid commits, back off.

Far from backing off, though, Ohio State came after him hard. Just weeks after his Illinois commitment, the Buckeyes offered Fellows a scholarship. And on Saturday, the big defensive end from Garfield Heights will stand on the Ohio Stadium sidelines, watching the Buckeyes' spring game instead of the Illini's game, as he had originally planned.

Dayton, again:

"Almost all the schools still recruited me after I committed," Moore said. "If I didn't call them back, most of them stopped eventually. Some coaches started recruiting me a lot harder, like Tennessee, Miami and Duke. Sometimes you think, 'Why even commit?' "

Which, like... of course. Roy Roundtree is perfectly capable of making sound decisions like "not going to Purdue." He has free will. Every coach in the Big Ten has, at one time or another, attempted to poach some other Big Ten school's "commitment." And with commitments coming earlier and earlier the decommitment becomes more prominent: over 600 last year. Rodriguez's recruiting practices are unremarkable.

Varsity Blue:

Roy Roundtree didn't switch from Purdue because Rich Rodriguez pulled some sort of trick move, he did it because he wanted to. Forcing him to stick to his Purdue commitment would have helped out Purdue somewhat, but at the expense of the kid, whose welfare is far more important in the grand scheme of things than that of a couple million-dollar sports programs.

Aaaand we're done here.

Mailbag!

Brian (or whoever reads this email),

My name is Josh and I was one of the OSU students up in section 47 and the one who actually started the chant. Indeed, we were chanting Tres-sel and had no idea that what we were saying would be misheard as ass-hole. Only later when an employee, not an usher, came running up the steps to our section did we realize what had happened. He asked us what we chanted because they all thought we were chanting ass-hole on the court. Frankly, we were shocked. We quickly apologized and said we chanting Tres-sel and made it clear that we would never chant ass-hole.

We can't speak for other Ohio State fans just as you can't speak for other Michigan fans, but I would like to assure you that we would never dishonor Mr. Rodriguez or any other staff/faculty/student with that type of a chant (though some of the commenters on the article would not be quick to believe).

I hope you can understand that we were only trying to rekindle the spirit of our Rivalry, the best in college sports, not to trash talk your new coach. We hope that Mr. Rodriguez can throw more fire into the Rivalry and make our future games more enjoyable for both sides. Trust me, while a victory over you guys in football is awesome, the dominance that Tressel has had these past couple of years has really taken the edge off the Rivalry. I think my favorite game, as a Senior at OSU, was the game two years ago in the Big House. Our Rivalry needs more games like that. I am sick and tired of hearing how the SEC has better rivalry games than we do, and we are glad at least you were able to take care of an SEC team in your postseason, while of late we have been less than stellar...but we are improving.

On a funny side note, we had ushers up in the section threatening to throw us out. Obviously we weren't and we weren't jeering them. But they did say that you guys don't do anything like that at our stadium, which we were quick to remind him that there are students/fans that do worse to us. But, we never swore at them or did anything to offend them except remind them of our rights to free speech.

To conclude, I hope that this email clears up the confusion of what happened at the game yesterday, and so you at least know that there are indeed classy Buckeye fans that do want our Rivalry to be the best it has ever been. Congratulations for winning yesterday and we look forward to seeing you guys in the Big Ten Tournament and at the Shoe next year. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me back. I've always believed that we can be rivals on the field but work together off the field to better one another.

Go Bucks........and *cringe* Go Blue

Josh Friedman

I've gotten a couple other emails to this effect, though none quite so restrained, and must conclude that they're telling the truth and that they weren't chanting "asshole," for what that's worth. It's still rude to scream throughout someone's speech and the idea that the rivalry needs to be "rekindled" a year after a #1-#2 game is pretty laughable. I wouldn't have attempted to compare Michigan fans' dastardly tendency to invade Columbus and get harassed and physically threatened with their actions, either. But FWIW.

On the topic of Vijay's nonbinding LOI idea:

I see one problem with the NBLOI idea you discussed - Roundtree would still be at Purdue. It sounds like he never would have left unless he had known Michigan was interested. He couldn't have learned that under an NBLOI, because Rod couldn't talk to him.

Response?

Jason

Maybe, maybe not. In our hypothetical world where the NBLOI is an option, it's just an option. Roundtree might have "committed" to Purdue without signing the NBLOI. And even if he had, Michigan could communicate their interest through Roundtree's coach, and at that point Roundtree could ask for the NBLOI to be rescindent. Joe Tiller would then get to offer that Ball State kid.

If that sounds like it kind of defeats the purpose of the NBLOI... well, sort of. There still couldn't be direct contact if the player had signed and the kid couldn't go on a campus visit. Someone like Michael Shaw would either have not signed in the first place or signed, then repealed his NBLOI; either would be a clear signal to Penn State that Shaw's "commitment" was not particularly strong. Despite the tussle with BSD after Signing Day, I do sympathize Penn State and Purdue's positions here, especially Purdue's. (Penn State should have seen the Shaw thing coming, and indeed most PSU fans were fretting about a potential defection for a couple weeks before it actually happened; the Roundtree thing was much more sudden.) The NBLOI and the mechanisms would put some actual teeth behind the idea of a "commitment," would save coaches and players time, annoyance, and effort, and would create even more jobs in the ever-expanding NCAA bureaucracy. Everyone wins.

Hearing rumors about a damaging article that he [Carty and the AANews] is about to publish about athletic department violations...any comments on this?

Dan

I haven't heard anything specific that hasn't been batted around on message boards, but there's enough independent smoke out there that, yes, there's something nasty coming down the pipe from the Ann Arbor News. There appear to be two camps of panickers:

• Aieeee! Florida State!
• This is going to be embarrassing, but that's all.

I don't know which side to believe but lean towards the latter out of simple disbelief that anyone in the Michigan program would have the sort of underhanded dealings that the FSU people did.

If I had to guess, I would say that the big reveal is going to be something like the recent USC and Auburn quasi-scandals where kids finagled their way into easy classes and/or abused "independent study" with cooperative professors without the cooperation of the athletic department. In the Auburn case they had someone rat out a professor whose independent "study" classes were wholly fictional; here I've heard different versions of the severity involved. One skeptical take from a message board I frequent that jives with other things I've heard:

The gist of it is that Carty’s jihad against the general studies program has led nowhere. It’s a real program with lots of non-athletes (as well as athletes) in it. But lots and lots of FOIA requests led to something that is somewhat troubling (although not out of compliance).

It turns out that a bunch of athletes have enrolled in independent study courses over the summer. These are legitimate courses, but arranged one-on-one with faculty members. Turns out there were a bunch of them in Psychology and the Ed School over the past few years, many supervised by just a few faculty.

It appears that the work was actually done, and non-athletes did similar work. But it’s not too difficult to portray this as a scandal, which it appears that Mr. Disingenuous is trying very hard to do. Not making a lot of progress, but this will be the basis of his bid for immortality and a ticket to a real newspaper.

Remember, there do not appear to be violations here. It’s not an Auburn situation where kids got grades for no work.

If all they've got is "isn't it suspicious, hmmmmmmmm" but the kids have actually done the work required of them this will be a big dud, albeit an irritating one that will work its way into the "scUM" lore of PSU, MSU, OSU, and ND message boards.

There is the separate question "should athletes be taking independent study classes en masse," the answer to which is definitely "no." But that's life when you have players spending something like 40 hours a week year-round on their chosen sport.

Upon Further Review: Defense vs Purdue

Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O39	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	6	Out
Warren is playing off; this is a simple throw and catch. (Cover -1)
O45	2	4	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	0	Zone read handoff
Johnson(+1) makes this play, subtly. They double him momentarily in an attempt to seal him; the guard peels off to go block Graham. But Johnson hasn't been sealed or given any ground and the running back cuts it back inside, where Taylor(+1) has beaten a guy and CGraham can fill, as the guard doesn't have an angle on him.
O45	3	4	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	5	Improvisation
It appears Michigan is caught off guard, as both Crable and Graham are flat-footed at the snap and end up blitzing from five yards away. Purdue has plenty of time to read and adjust; they pick it up. Crable(+1) literally leaps over the running back who's trying to block him; BGraham(+1) comes around the corner to flush Painter; contain is lost with the linebackers crashing inside and rolls out, finding a guy in front of Trent. Painter's first read covered(+1); pressure -1 for blowing contain and not getting there on a blitz.
50	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	-2	Triple option dive
Slightly different formation than our usual nickel as Taylor is lined up right over the center's grill. Crable as a standup DE. They motion Bryant into a two-RB look, the run a triple option, handing it off to Dierking. Taylor(+2) busts through the line right into the path of the play, making an unassisted TFL.
O48	2	12	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	7	Out
Quick rollout from Painter and an out throw in front of a soft Trent. (Cover -1).
M45	3	5	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	1	Scramble
Dierking motions out; empty look. Coverage(+1) is good; Painter can't find anyone as the pocket collapses around him. Jamison(+1) flushes; BGraham(+1) keeps his head up and reads that Painter's going to take it up the middle, collapsing on him as he nears the LOS. Stick him harder and you get a sack, BG.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12 min 1st Q. I kind of wish we weren't playing so soft on these little outs, but given Painter's inaccuracy I can see the strategy. I think we'll see similar stuff against Illinois. Zoltan's MIND BULLETS induce the ball to hit a Purdue player; turnover. Why can't these be returned?
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O35	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pen	5	Offsides
Taylor(-1)
O40	1	5	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	3	WR screen
This is a traditional screen with a couple jab steps from the WR, who then backs off and tries to pick up some blockers. CGraham(+1) reads this and attacks it, tripping up the ballcarrier. Johnson, tracking back, finishes the play.
O43	2	2	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	2	Zone read handoff
Very aggressive; third time already we've spread a linebacker out and brought up a safety to provide something of a 3-4 look. Corners playing very soft behind it. Adams backs off before the snap. We stunt our way past some zone blocking, forcing Sheets – just entered – to cut back into an unblocked Crable; he cuts up and Taylor(+1) disconnects to tackle. They just manage the first.
O45	1	10	???	???	Run	3	???
We're looking at a picture of Chimdi Chekwa instead of Purdue's first down, which is the third time we've missed a play in just six minutes of game action. As we come back Ezeh is slicing into the line to tackle Sheets amongst a host of Michigan defenders.
O46	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	-4	Sack
BGraham(+2) comes around the corner lightning quick, raking the ball as Painter attempts to throw and forcing a panicked scramble. Crable(+1) tracks down for a sack more rightly BG's.
O42	3	13	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Deep out
Crable lined up sort of over a slot receiver; both MLBs threaten blitz; Crable and Harrison come off the corners as the MLBs bail. Painter does get a pass off to a wide open Lymon(cover -2), but it's wide and a difficult catch which is not made. Pressure(+1) from Harrison may have helped painter screw up.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 7 min 1st Q. Fortunate... that was catchable.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
M5	1	G	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	5	Zone read keeper
Crable(-2) gives up contain; easy touchdown once he does.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O22	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	2	Draw
Taylor(+1), alert, pushes off his guy and forces him to change his path. Johnson(+1) has backed off and collapsed down into the hole the running back diverts into.
O24	2	8	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	18	Zone read handoff
No stunt; Crable lined up as a standup DT, Purdue runs right at him, doubling him. Yeah; that works. A zone block knocks Crable(-1) out and CGraham(-1) gets blocked downfield, diving at the RB's ankles but missing. Similar play to the NW gashers; this is not a run defense. Sheets fumbles at the end of the run... butt meet bench. Jamison(+1), tracking back downfield, caused the fumble.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 10-7, 2 min 1st Q. That 3-3-5 is not tenable except on obvious passing downs.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O38	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	10	Stop
Michigan blitzes; good pickup by the RB and an open, short route prevent it from doing anything. I believe this is zone; Trent's been driven of by a deeper route and has to come up late. He misses the tackle(-1), turning this from five to ten yards. Adams bails him out. Pass caught by “Lywyn Selmon”... uh... (Cover -1)
O48	2	In	Ace	Base 4-3	Pass	2	Long handoff
Don't mind playing off here; the rewards of playing tight are little and the risks unpleasant. Warren just barely gets a hand on this guy's leg, slowing him up and allowing others to converge. He's still a very dodgy tackler, which may be relevant against Illinois.
50	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	7	Zone read PA
Fake handoff and a Painter rollout finds Bryant downfield open in front of Ezeh and Adams. (Cover -1). CGraham shot into the backfield on some sort of delayed blitz, but the coverage couldn't give it time to matter.
M43	2	3	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Quick out
If there was ever a throw that proved Curtis Painter was a poor fit for this offense, this is it. He has a small window to fit this short pass in and wings it wide. Harrison made this kinda difficult; no coverage +/-.
M43	3	3	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	3	Zone read handoff
Blitzing heavy from the outside. BG, at DT, does a pretty good job of cutting off the intended POA and forcing a cutback, where Englemon tackles. Dierking just stretches out and makes it, as the tackle was from the side. CGraham blown out of the play by a guard, FWIW.
M39	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	-3	Zone right(!!!)
This looks like Tecmo Super Bowl when you call the same play as the offense. Why would Purdue ever run this? Previous opponents (ND and PSU) have foolishly tried to shoehorn their offenses into something they were not in order to exploit Michigan's apparent weakness against a shotgun run game; Purdue decides to shoehorn their offense into something Michigan sees every week in practice. Weird. Anyway, Adams(+1) blitzes into this but maintains control; Jamo(+1) slices into the backfield through befuddled zone blockers, and CGraham follows up. Three more Wolverines get there for the dogpile.
M42	2	13	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Throwaway
BGraham(+1) gets around the corner, forcing Painter to chuck it OOB. (Pressure +2). This guy is a terror.
M42	3	13	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	5	Cross
Adams(+1) is a bad position at the snap after faking a blitz and pulling out late; he's quickly outside of Dustin Keller's crossing route and has no chance to make a play on the ball. he realizes this, bails out a little deeper, and focuses on making a tackle, which he does authoritatively.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 13 min 2nd Q. Zoltan's mind bullets force the punt, which lands at the five, to bounce all the way out to the 20.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O22	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	4	Triple option dive
Bryant agains motions into the backfield and Purdue gives a triple option look while handing off to Dierking. Johnson is doubled for a long time and starts giving ground, but the long double lets Ezeh fill unmolested. A cutback behind the late-peeling OL yields a moderate gain.
O26	2	6	Shotgun 3-Wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Inc	Out
They roll the pocket to buy time; BGraham(+1) works free of the OT and gets a little pressure as Painter approaches the sideline; the throw to Lymon is wide. (Pressure +1)
O26	3	6	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Cross
Ezeh(+1) blitzes and harries Painter into a quick throw (pressure +1) that's either horribly behind Bryant or horribly in front of Orton.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O37	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Pen	-5	False Start
O32	1	15	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	4	Screen
The jab-step screen to Bryant Purdue ran earlier. Englemon(+1) fills immediately, forcing Bryant to delay and allowing the defensive line to recover.
O36	2	11	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	9	Zone read PA
Goes to Keller, who runs the “fake-block-run-out” route favored by TEs everywhere. CGraham(-1) lets him get open (cover -1); Warren comes up to tackle after a five yard again but whiffs(-1); CGraham whiffs, too, Englemon pushed back and Keller nears first down yardage.
O45	3	2	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	1	Zone read handoff
Excellent job by Johnson(+1) to get some penetration and cut off the hole, forcing a cutback away from the intended POA. Ezeh(+1) shoots past a potential blocker, combining to tackle with Crable and force a punt.
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-7, 4 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O10	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	-1	Zone read handoff
Well, I guess this is the upside of Crable occasionally being way irresponsible on these: this time they hand it off and he tracks it down in the backfield from the backside. A grudging +1.
O9	2	11	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	4	Out
Meh, if they want four yards here they can have them. They attempted to block Crable with a RB... this is not a good idea.
O13	3	7	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	Int	Post
Painter's throw is not good but would probably have been catchable if Adams(+2) hadn't come up and popped Bryant as the ball arrived. The ball pops up into the air; Harrison flags it down and starts running. Recommendation: watch Jamison clock Bryant right at the beginning of the return. He must be thinking “#&*!, didn't that guy get stoned and enter the NFL draft three years ago?” (Cover +1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 24-7, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O41	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	-4	Sack
Uh... they decide not to block Crable(+1). Unwise. He comes in under control and gets a hand on Painter, forcing him up in the pocket. Taylor's(+1) dropped into a spy zone type thing, reads, attacks, and sacks.
Drive Notes: EOH, 31-7, EOH.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O25	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Throwaway
Harrison(-1) in unblocked but overruns the QB; he scrambles outside, finding no one and tossing it OOB. (Pressure +1, cover +1)
O25	2	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Cross
CGraham(-1) gets sucked out of his zone on the middle of the field, leaving this pass to Lymon wide open; Lymon drops it. Another instance where Graham's crappy pass coverage gets bailed out by the opponent failing to execute. (Cover -2) One more second and Crable smashes painter from behind.
O25	3	10	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Cross?
Harrison(+1) in unblocked again – nice blitz pickups, Purdue – as the RB motions out of the backfield. This time he keeps under control, allowing Painter a moment to fire but way inaccurate; BGraham(+1) also got pressure, beating the LT. (Pressure +2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 31-7, 11 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O20	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	4	Zone read handoff
This portly guy named Halliburton now in the game. CGraham(+1) does a good job to fend off a block and close the hole he picks; his momentum and a shot from a Michigan DL closing from behind push him forward for a moderate gain.
O24	2	6	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pen	-5	Delay
O19	2	11	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	-9 (pen)	Bomb
Ezeh, blitzing, gets around the LT and is tackled. Painter steps up and lofts a bomb to Lymon, who's beaten Trent(-1) and Adams(-1), but drops it. Moot point with the penalty. (Pressure +1, Cover -2)
O10	2	20	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	2	WR screen
Same jab-step screen, this one to Lymon. CGraham(+1) does an excellent job of getting off the downfield block of Sester, the LT, and tackling with help from a backtracking Jamison.
O12	3	18	Shotgun 3-Wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	21	Post
Michigan gets cute here, with seven guys at or around the LOS and four guys in an umbrella. Two linebackers threaten blitz, then back out after the snap; their zone drops are necessarily pretty shallow given their starting positions and the middle of the field is wide open for a Bryant post. Adams(-1) beaten. (Cover -2)
O33	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Run	6	Zone read handoff
Very AppSt-esque, this play. Crable flies upfield, taking himself out of the play. Will Johnson(-1) does what we've seen a lot of DTs do against us by ducking behind the block in an attempt to get penetration; he doesn't get to the RB in the backfield. Ezeh(+1) jukes out a guard who got to move to the second level immediately;. his tackle attempt is less than great but he still helped hold this down. A slowed Halliburton is buried after a moderate gain.
O39	2	4	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	2	Long handoff
Warren(+1) reacts to this quickly and just manages to not screw up the tackle. I'm still pretty leery about his tackling ability, and frankly, this play, but we are a results-based charting service. (Cover +1)
O41	3	2	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	4	Slant
Orton open for the first; immediate tackle from Warren.
O45	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	18	PA TE Flag
A zone read fake gets Warren(-1) to bite; Keller's flag is open at the sidelines. (Cover -1). Stevie Brown in the game.
M37	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	0	Zone read handoff
Taylor(+1) bursts through the line; a blitzing CGraham(+1) shoots pasts the center before he can get out on him; Ezeh comes in unblocked. Halliburton manages to get back to the LOS.
M37	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	3	Hitch
Brown(+1) makes a solid tackle to prevent any YAC after this short completion. (Cover +1)
M34	3	7	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	2	Scramble
BGraham(+1) around the corner and would have a sack if not for a befuddled Purdue tackle who's been blown back into the pocket turning around and picking him off. Painter takes off. Jamo(+1) keeps him from running upfield long enough for Trent to come up and tackle. (Pressure +1)
M32	4	5	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Hitch
Purdue stacks wide receivers on both sides of the line. A quick hitch to Orton is open in front of Warren (cover -1); Painter throws it into the turf.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs, 34-7, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O31	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	Int	Post
Johnson(+2) busts through the line, beating the guard, and hits Painter as he throws. The ball sails right to Adams(+1). (Pressure +1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 41-7, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O38	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	Nickel	Pass	-4 (pen)	Zone read PA
Elliot in the game... and he's a little confused. He keeps it after some play action, looks like he's going to scramble for good yardage, and then throws it to Orton after he crosses the LOS. Crable -1 for giving up contain.
O34	2	14	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	0	Zone read handoff
Slocum(+1) finally in; he sheds a blocker and tackles with the help of a collapsing Patterson.
O34	3	14	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	7	Flare
Elliot comes down to a little flare route with no chance for the first. (Cover +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 48-7, 8 min 4th Q. Garbage time starts now; charting stops.

We own spread offenses!

If it's Purdue's, yes. I wish I had stuck to my guns in the preview; after saying we would hold down the Boilers in last week's defensive UFR I backed off and predicted 27 points. As it turned out that was close to right, but only by the letter of the law, not the spirit.

How did we do so badly against our first two opponents and then crush Purdue?

Purdue can't run well even normally; in this game they were missing starting RB Jaycen Taylor, benched Korey Sheets for fumbling all the time, brought him in for about two carries, one of which he fumbled, and benched him again. The leftovers were true freshman Dan Dierking (he's white! Think Sam McGuffie without the hurdling, yards, and touchdowns) and some bowling-ball type named Halliburton. Michigan has always played boa constrictor against one-dimensional offenses, and this was one.

But there are obvious improvements: Taylor and Johnson were much more effective in this game than they were against Appalachian State; this is unlikely to be an effect of playing against weaker competition, no offense to the Apps. Brandon Graham has returned from injury/suspension to become the best player on the defense. Englemon is good, Sears is gone, and the coverage is improving. They are getting better; this is not a mirage.

Does Shawn Crable have to give up contain on the zone read twice a game? I mean, is it in a contract or something? My theory is this: Jim Tressel kidnapped him and wouldn't let him go unless he promised to never, ever make sure if the quarterback has the ball before motoring after the running back.

Uh. My theory is that Michigan defensive ends might be coached to do this. Adam Patterson did it on the last drive I charted, too. That seems crazy, and Crable has kept contain a couple times, but it would seem to be the easiest thing in the world to get down: "if you are unblocked on the backside of a shotgun running play, check to see if the QB has the ball before freaking out and collapsing." And yet. The only two touchdowns the Michigan first string have given up in the past two weeks have come off of QB keepers that Crable freaked out about and lost contain on.

Suggestion for Illinois: STOP IT STOP IT STOP IT STOP IT STOP IT.

I mean, look at the--

Chart?

Chart.

Player	+	-	T	Notes
Jamison	4	-	4
Johnson	5	1	4	Got a nice interior pass rush, forcing a pick.
Taylor	7	1	6	Much more effective against a spread run game than earlier in the year.
B. Graham	8	-	8	Didn't actually pick up a sack but caused a lot of incompletions and generally owned Purdue tackles all day. Gooooood.
Crable	4	4	0	More crashing down, giving up contain... twice today. Cannot do that against Illinois.
Slocum	1	-	1
Gallimore	-	-	-
Ferrara	-	-	-
Patterson	-	-	-
Banks	-	-	-
Thompson	-	-	-	DNP
Ezeh	3	-	3	Much better day than against EMU; made a couple plays and didn't blow anything in particular.
C. Graham	4	3	1	Hey! It's positive! I'll take it. Blew up a couple screens. Still not so hot in zone drops.
Logan	-	-	-	DNP
Trent	-	2	-2	Got beat deep by Lymon, though it didn't matter in the end.
Harrison	1	1	0
Warren	2	2	0
Adams	4	2	2	Our safeties seem okay of late. Knock on wood.
Englemon	1	-	1
Brown	1	-	1	Had some extensive troubles in garbage time, IIRC.
"Pressure"	11	1	10	Combined with the run numbers an indication that Michigan dominated what was supposed to be a pretty good offensive line.
"Coverage"	6	14	-8	Strategy was probably to lay back and watch Purdue eff it up; it worked.

Crable is the only guy in the front seven -- though we play a base nickel these days we rotate four guys on the DL -- to have a non-positive score and the only DL to have a non wildly positive score, mostly because he lost three points on this contain stuff. Go figure.

The rest of it: the defensive line crushed a fairly veteran and supposedly pretty good Purdue OL; the linebackers were a positive, too. And while the secondary took a step back from the past couple weeks that may have been a tactical decision. Aside from the Lymon bomb, a Keller flag and that disappointing third and eighteen conversion, anything Purdue wanted was in the Jimmah Clausen wheelhouse: four yards downfield. Given Painter's inaccuracy and the lack of a Purdue run game, Michigan could play off, cut off the big play, and wait for the Boilers to screw up or a defensive lineman to tear Painter's head off. This is the kind of team bend-but-don't-break works on: a crappy one.

Heroes?

Purdue's left tackle is still looking for Brandon Graham. The rest of the DL, save Crable, also goes here. They were unstoppable.

Goats?

No one was outright bad today; even Chris Graham hopped above 0.

What does it mean for Illinois?

To reiterate the above: for the love of God, Crable/whoever, maintain contain on the quarterback.

Past that, Iowa shut Illinois down by sitting in their base 4-3, playing zone, and getting excellent contributions from the cornerbacks against the option. Result: 6 points for the Illini. We seem married to this nickel against the spread and will probably not mimic that style of play exactly but I would expect something similar: bend, don't break, get Illinois in long yardage situations, and get them off the field. I would rather keep two safeties deep and play the corners tight with an eye on defending the option than bring up another guy in the box and play soft.

Upon Further Review: Offense vs Purdue

Video clip problems? Try VLC.

Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M20	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	14	Butler	Waggle
We fake zone left; Purdue bites like a mofo. Didn't they watch the EMU game? The SLB here – nominally the guy supposed to cover Butler – bites so hard it must be seen to be believed. Henne has an easy pitch and catch for a first down. (CA, 3)
M34	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	1	Hart	Zone left
...I think. The BTN is showing us the starting lineups as this play snaps.
M35	2	9	???	Run	0	Hart	???
You've got to be kidding me. You just #*$&ed it up on the last play, and you do it again? Get with the program, BTN.
M35	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Drag
Henne checks down to a covered Arrington, who gets blown up as the ball gets there. Should have dumped off to Hart or done something other than this. (BR, 1, protection 2/2). Ortmann picks up an illegal hands to the face; declined.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 10 min 1st Q. Question: do you take this penalty? Michigan would be in third and twenty-four on its 20 and is likely to draw or screen or something. You're probably picking up field position here and the chance of actually giving up a first down is miniscule, especially because Michigan is unlikely to even try for one.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
O32	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	8	Manningham	Out
Purdue with basically eight in the box, or as near as I can tell since the BTN is using a crazy camera angle. Manningham open against zone; Michigan takes the short completion. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O24	2	2	I-Form	Pass	24	Manningham	Fly
Fullback shuffle results in a safety charging to the line at the snap. Oops. Henne sets and fires to the corner of the endzone, where Manningham is open by yards. Very reminiscent of last year's ND game. Oh, parabolas, welcome back. (DO, 3, protection 2/2) Replay reveals that Vinson slowed up inexplicably – we did have a quasi-draw fake here with Moundros plowing a middle linebacker like he was a lead blocker – and allowing prodigious separation.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 9 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M9	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	3	Hart	Zone left
BTN just barely gets to the play before the snap as we linger lovingly over Joe Tiller's visage. Purdue has eight in the box; Avril attacks off the snap, forcing Long(-1) back and occupying McLaurin; it's bad when a DE occupies two guys. Wait... what? This is Mark Ortmann getting driven back as Long moves to the second level. This is an unbalanced line with Carson Butler playing RT, and Ortmann as a strongside TE. Weird. Kraus(-1) can't get any push on his block and there's nowhere for Hart to go.
M12	2	7	Ace 3-wide	Pass	-7	--	Sack
Oh, my God, it's unbelievable how often the BTN screws up down and distance. This is all on Carson Butler(-3), who lets his man go by and strip Henne as he prepares to throw. No chance for Henne here. (PR, 0, protection 0/3)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-0, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M32	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	5	Arrington	Quick out
Purdue brings an extra guy in the box; corners playing a little soft but react quickly enough to prevent any YAC. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M37	2	5	Ace Trips	Pass	5	Manningham	Bubble screen
Fairly predictable play here; the corner starts attacking as Henne starts his motion. We need some plays that punish that aggresiveness. Anyway, Arrington does a good job of holding the corner off and Manningham gets first down yardage. (CA, 3)
M42	1	10	Ace	Pass	11	McLaurin	Wheel (sorta)
Eight in the box for the Boilers; they send five and it's picked up. Henne checks off, checks off, and comes to his third read, firing it in for a first down. McLaurin nearly drops it, but holds on. Excellent senior play from Henne. (DO, 3, protection 3/3)
O47	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	14	Hart	Inside zone
Seven in the box, obvious zone from Purdue. This is not a stretch, but an inside zone play that we've run occasionally. They key is on the nominal backside of the play: Kraus shoves the backside DT, then immediately releases to the second level. Long slants inside, getting in front of the DT and sort of sumo-ing him downfield. Butler manages to control the backside DE. Crease, secondary, Hart go.
O33	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	9	Hart	Zone counter
-ish. This is our play where we run what looks like a standard zone right but shoot the fullback at the backside DE. (Or LB in this 3-4 look from Purdue.) Long(+1) bursts off the ball, sealing the DE immediately. Boren(+1) drives the NT downfield; when Hart cuts back there's a major lane. NCAA-esque spin move gets him near the first down.
O24	2	1	I-Form Twins	Run	4	Hart	Zone left
Sometimes I think our scheme puts too much emphasis on getting out to the second level, and this is a good example. We're running a zone left and Schilling mostly ignores the weakside DT, leaving Ortmann an impossible block. He does okay, getting enough of a shove to keep the DT from getting past the LOS, but all he can do is escort the guy to Hart. Hart decides “eff it,” and bowls right through him for the first, but I think we sould have been much better served if Schilling had helped out on this guy and allowed Hart to explot what was otherwise a pretty big frontside hole.
O20	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	3	Hart	Zone left
Eight in the box. Grumble. This would have worked anyway – I think this play is designed to go outside – except for shoddy blocking by both McLaurin(-1) and Butler(-1). Butler's working with Long on a DE and they allow him to get to the outside; McLaurin just loses control of his guy. A delay allows linebackers to converge after a small gain.
O17	2	7	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Mathews	Post
Purdue tips a double blitz from the right side of the line and comes with it anyway; Michigan picks it up. With time, Henne fires for Mathews; TV makes this look like an awful decision but from my vantage point in the stadium – right on line with the throw – he clearly had Mathews open and just missed. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)
O17	3	7	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	--	Throwaway
A delayed corner blitz gets in unblocked as Long(-1) fails to read it and Hart moves too quickly to the other side of the line(-1). This was max-pro, too. Bleah! (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: FG (34), 10-7, 3 min 1st Q. Hurray for not quite as crappy kicker.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
O37	1	10	Ace	Pass	26	Manningham	Out & up
Eight in the box with really soft corners. Manningham runs a little out and up; the short zone guys get nowhere near deep enough – sucked up by the Arrington drag and one safety is trying to cover about two and half routes. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
O11	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	11	Hart	Zone left
Not well blocked at all; Schilling falls down and gets no cut on the DT, who falls anyway, then falls again as he tries to get up. Meanwhile, the WLB splits Ortmann and Boren, grabbing Hart around the ankles. Hart falls on a prone OL, spins up, and waltzes into the endzone. I heart Hart. Hmmm. On replay, I take back part of the blocked poorly: Kraus(+2) owns the frontside DT here, pancaking him and creating the room Hart exploits; even if he fell down where hit he would have had six. (Replay)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-7, 1 min 1st Q. Lots of short drives in this game.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M20	1	10	I-Form	Run	-2	Hart	Zone left
Schilling(-2) cannot get a block on the weakside DT; a late-blitzing safety blows past Moundros(-1); Hart is splattered.
M18	2	12	Ace 3-wide	Run	7	Hart	Zone left
Excellent job by Long(+1) and Kraus(+1) to seal the outside; Long has momentary help from a Butler brush block; Butler then moves out to a cornerback and whiffs(-1), forcing Hart back inside where a a tracking safety can haul him down.
M25	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	11	Arrington	Stop
Purdue threatens blitz, bailing out at the last second; the nickelback starts jumping a Manningham slant, opening up a spot for Arrington. Oddly, Butler is in the same area – missed route? -- but no matter. Henne's throw is an ugly duck Arrington has to dig out, but he does. (CA-, 1, protection 2/2)
M36	1	10	I-Form	Pass	Inc	Hart	Dumpoff
Batted by a leaping Avril after Ortmann had stoned him near the LOS. (BA, 0, protection 2/2).
M36	2	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	3	Hart	Zone left
Don't like this. Purdue is heavily slanted towards the left side of the line and has an extra guy in the box with the corners playing soft. Result: DT slashing through line with both Boren(-1) and Kraus(-1) pivoting to try and do something about it, unblocked guys in the hole that mess creates, and a fortunate few yards.
M39	3	7	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Mathews	Drag
Ortmann beaten to the inside by Avril, forcing Henne to chuck a dumpoff to Mathews from his back foot. This looked like interference live, but on replay it's an excellent play from the DB. (CA, 0, protection 0/2, Ortmann -2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 10 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M36	1	10	???	Run	11	Manningham	End-around
This is atrocious: another missed play. We come back just as Manningham is getting an end-around. It's wide open; Manningham scoots down the sideline, picking up a killer block from Arrington(+1) and getting a first down.
M47	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	5	Hart	Zone left
Shuffle; run against it(!). The strongside DT shoots behind Kraus but when that happens and there's no penetration from LBs or DEs on the frontside if the DT does not get Hart there's a bunch of room; here he's not even close. Boren(+1) does a good job on the backside guy; Moundros(-1) can't cut a weakside blitzer, who collapses on Hart after a nice gain.
O48	2	5	Ace Twins	Run	1	Hart	Zone left
I dislike these playcalls where we motion in Arrington to essentially play a third tight end. Purdue loads up with eight guys in the box and a cornerback in zone looming over the short side of the field. Doesn't really matter as Kraus(-1) is blown back into Hart's path, causing him to stumble, and a couple yards is all he can make.
O47	3	4	Ace 3-wide	Pass	12	Mathews	Er... out-slant
I bet this route has a name, but I am not aware of it: Mathews comes in motion to the top side of the screen, creating a bunch of three wide receivers; he runs what looks like an out route before cutting it back inside, making this slant-ish. Henne slings it to him with perfect timing. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
O35	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	12	Arrington	Waggle
This is incredibly wide open with the corners playing in Lake Michigan. Arrington runs an out, makes the easy catch, then beats a late-filling safety for a few more yards and a first down. (CA, 3)
O23	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pen	-5	Butler	False Start
Not actually Butler's fault; Manningham lined up on the LOS.
O28	1	15	Ace 3-wide	Run	14	Hart	Draw
Corner blitz runs right past Hart; since the DE to the same side has gotten inside of Ortmann it's an easy decision to take it outside, which is wide open. Boren(+1) got out on the middle linebacker; lots of room.
O14	2	1	I-Form Big	Run	2	Hart	Zone right
Boren(-1) lets his man penetrate dangerously; Butler also shoved back into a poor position. We've flipped the tackles on this play, so Long is on the frontside and Ortmann the weak. The frontside penetration doesn't matter because Kraus(+1), Ortmann(+1), and Moundros(+1) have all cut their guys to the ground. Hart leaps over the mess for a first down.
O12	1	10	Ace Big	Run	3	Hart	Zone left
Boren just barely keeps his guy under control long enough for Hart to pass by; Schilling has no angle on the MLB and can't get a block; Hart can't cut back as Ortmann(-1) has missed his cut on the backside DE. There's a crease for a few yards until Hart meets the MLB.
O9	2	7	Ace Big	Run	9	Hart	Zone left
Boren(+1) gets control of the DT, stalemates him at the line, and seals him away from Hart, though the frontside gets all jammed up. Ortmann(+1) and Schilling(+1) cut the weakside DT and the MLB to the ground – nice job by Schilling on the second level – and Hart springs through the gap into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-7, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M22	1	10	Ace	Run	3	Hart	Zone left
Again with the Arrington tight motion; Purdue has eight in the box with the lurking corner again. Boren's supposed to move out to the second level but the MLB comes to him; he does a decent enough job. There is a bit of daylight between him and Kraus; Schilling's(-1) guy runs down the line and tackles after a small gain.
M25	2	7	Ace 3-wide	Run	-6 (pen)	Hart	Draw
Schilling(+1) escorts the DT upfield; big gap up the middle; Moundros is nominally lined up at TE and plunges inside, stoning the MLB. Butler's got the OLB... sort of; he gets inside but Hart manages to get around him. Arrington(+1) does a great job on the corner; big yardage. Holding called on Boren... but no, not really. They screwed up the number. It's actually 85, Butler(-1), who gets the call. You can tell because they march off from four yards downfield; Boren never got downfield.
M19	2	13	I-Form Twins	Pass	7	Hart	Dumpoff
Primary threats are covered, so Henne comes down to his outlet. Great protection. (CA, 3, protection 3/3)
M26	3	6	Ace 3-wide	Pass	12	Arrington	Out
Arrington just in front of a couple defenders; Henne waited just long enough to get him open, throwing just as the defensive ends got free. Nice blitz pickup from Hart. (CA+, 3, protection 3/3)
M38	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	8	Hart	Inside zone
Hart decides to cut back behind Boren's okay block. On the backside, Kraus(+1) and Long(+1) have done the same double they executed previously where Kraus first explodes into the DT, knocking him back a bit, and Long picks it up from there. The guy ends up on his butt three yards downfield as Kraus is pounding a linebacker on the second level.
M46	2	2	Ace 3-wide	Run	0	Hart	Inside zone
Ortmann(-1) just escorts his man down the line to Hart; Long and Butler have had their double split, causing Long(-1) to peel off when it's Butler who should do so; Butler has no angle to block the OLB; the two meet at Hart at the LOS. Hart limps off and 110,000 people want to die.
M46	3	2	Ace Big	Run	0	Minor	Zone left
Kraus(-1) blown back, but we actually crease Purdue pretty well here save for the corner in man against the tight end – Purdue has a no-BS 9 in the box this time – who is unblocked and tackles at the LOS. This was a good day from Debord, but this playcall is truly inexplicable. It would be weird even with Hart in the game – why do we insist on playing our crappy second-string TE and our meh fullback instead of our good receivers? With our kinda mediocre backup it's really, really weird.
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-7, 1 min 2nd Q. Really bizarre.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
O21	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	21	Manningham	Braylonian Fly
Henne drops back and lofts it up to Manningham, who cuts in front of the defensive back and leaps to take it away. Eerily reminiscent of one of the Braylon TDs against MSU in that exact corner of that exact endzone. Personally, I think we should be throwing this ball to Arrington all the time. Not sure how to chart this... is this a bad throw? A popup up for grabs? How to evaluate the catch here? Uh... (CA, 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 31-7, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M25	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	-1	Minor	Zone right
Boren(-1) driven back; Long(-1) escorts his man to the ballcarrier; Minor has to go outside, where an unblocked linebacker awaits.
M24	2	11	I-Form	Pass	6	Moundros	FB Flat
Checks down to Moundros open underneath. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M30	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	7	Manningham	Delayed slant
Accurate-ish, but a little low. The pass takes Manningham off his feet, preventing YAC, but does go for a first. (CA-, 2, protection 2/2)
M37	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Run	7	Minor	Zone right
Running against seven in the box. Boren and Ortmann(-1) have trouble again – Avril nearly makes a four-yard TFL. Minor cuts it all the way back across the formation, outrunning a linebacker to the corner. The LB dives and gets a hand on his foot, tripping Minor up after a nice gain. Minor limps off.
M44	2	3	Ace 3-wide	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
Schilling's(-1) block is ineffectual; so is Kraus's(-1); the two DTs collapse on Brown.
M45	3	2	Ace Big	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
Again we allow Purdue to stack the line with nine guys and run straight at theim. This is a long two yards, too, with our third-string back in the game. Linebackers slash into the backfield and there's nowhere to go.
Drive Notes: Punt, 31-7, 11 min 3rd Q. I really don't get this packing the line thing. One of our big weaknesses going into the year was depth at TE/FB and our starting TE is out for the year. So what do we do? Use three at a time. Other than one Hart touchdown, it's been a disaster.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M30	1	10	Ace	Pass	45	Manningham	Bomb
Purdue with eight in the box and soft corners. Manningham just runs and Henne flings it up there and it lands right in his hands right in stride; excellent coverage from the CB here, just nothing he could do about it except make it a slightly more difficult catch. (DO, 2, protection 2/2). Can I complain about the playcall here? I mean... they're ten yards off; we've done this a lot this year and Henne's thrown a lot of interceptions. Without a perfect throw two Purdue players have shots at this ball.
O25	1	10	Ace	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
I think we tip this by putting Arrington tight to the end of the line and running that direction. Both backside linebackers jump and slant hard, getting to the playside of second level blockers Boren and Ortmann. Brown waits for the play to develop, finally choosing to cut up behind Long when Kraus knocks his man over, but the two linebackers meet him for a minimal gain.
O24	2	9	Ace 3-wide	Pass	6	Arrington	Quick out
Weird protection scheme that lets the defensive end in unblocked and has Brown pick him up. Would rather have Long block that guy, kthx. Is this blitz pickup for dummies? You just tell Brown to block the DE, shift the protection right, and let the more experienced guys on the line decide what to do. Downside: Brown against a DE. It gets Henne hit on this three-step drop (yay, Ortmann cut Avril: no batted passes.) Pass is on the money. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
O18	3	3	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Fly
Max pro and no one is open. Henne bombs it out of the endzone... probably a throwaway as Manningham was covered. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: FG(35), 34-7, 9 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M33	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	9	Manningham	WR Screen
We motion Butler out to a pair of WRs at the top of the formation; I say “screen”; we run that screen. Purdue totally unprepared for it even though whenever we run the TE out there it's a screen; Manningham gets outside the linebacker and goes for good yardage. (CA, 3)
M42	2	1	I-Form Twins	Run	7	Brown	Zone left
Schilling(+1) cuts the backside DT; he falls. There's mass of humanity on the frontside, so Brown cuts it up behind Boren and Kraus. A linebacker grabs Brown's feet as he bursts through the line.
M49	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Zone PA Screen
Okay. I complain about a lack of creativity all the time; this is probably the most hypocritical thing in the world. But we've never shown this play before... it's a zone left fake that turns into a long handoff. And it should work beautifully as the corner to that side jets in as soon as he sees the line move. But why are we debuting this with two minutes left in the third quarter of a game we lead by 27? Manningham drops it, BTW. (CA, 3)
M49	2	10	I-Form	Run	3	Brown	Lead Draw
Crappy read by Brown, who has a ton of room if he cuts it outside Boren; instead he runs up into linebackers. Mike Hart would never do this. Mike Hart would gain 15 on this play and bake peanut butter cookies while doing it.
O48	3	7	Ace 4-wide	Pass	8	Arrington	Slant
Fired into not much space; Arrington hit as the ball gets there; no problem. (CA+, 2, protection 1/1)
O40	1	10	I-Form	Run	3	Brown	Zone left
FB shuffle. Nothing special here; no real hole but no penetration, either. Brown follows Moundros for a few.
O37	2	7	???	Pass	8	Manningham	Zone PA Screen
The sixth play the BTN fails to show us most of. This is the same screen Manningham just dropped – you can tell because long is out there trying to help out on what looks like a WR screen; Manningham jukes the corner and fights for good yardage. (CA, 3)
O29	1	10	Ace	Run	29	Brown	Zone right
Another cutback run for Brown keyed by the backside DT getting chopped to the ground. This time it's Kraus(+1); Boren gets out on the MLB after helping Schilling(+1) with his excellent zone block. Brown shoots up between them and is into the secondary, setting up Mathews nicely to get from the 10 into the endzone. A lot faster than Hart, yes.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 41-7, 14 min 4th Q. We should have put Hart's jersey on Brown for those Heisman stats.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
O33	1	10	Ace	Pass	1	Mathews	Long handoff
Henne in the game... why? Well covered by Purdue. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O32	2	9	Ace	Run	7	Brown	Zone left
A pretty good run by Brown here with a quick, decisive cut up into the second level, where he meets an unblocked linebacker. His momentum (and some help from Long – also inexplicably still in the game) carries him for another four.
O25	3	2	Ace	Run	2	Brown	Zone left
I do still hate these calls on third and short; Purdue shoots guys into every gap except one, as the backside DT again gets cut, this time by Ortmann(+1). Brown manages to squeeze forward for the first down.
O23	1	10	I-Form	Run	0	Brown	Inside zone
Purdue in a 3-4 look with a NT right over Boren. Schilling(-1) and Boren(-1) double him, both doing a crappy job. They get split; a blitzing linebacker and Moundros collide a couple yards in the backfield; the LB wins; Brown is swallowed whole.
O23	2	10	Ace	Run	-2	Brown	Zone right
Brown really needs to cut behind Schilling here like he did on some previous plays; the backside DE is charging hard and may track him down but Schilling's guy is beating him to the outside so when you continue outside you get thumped.
O25	3	12	Ace 3-wide	Pass	11	Butler	Out
Butler delays, then releases out to the sideline after the WRs clear out the zone; Henne checks down to him. Butler evades one tackle and squeezes down to the 13, making an extra seven yards and letting Michigan go for it. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O13	4	1	Ace Big	Run	12	Brown	Zone left
This is all Long(+2) blowing his guy off the ball.
O1	1	G	Ace Big	Run	1	Brown	Zone left
Same play; Kraus gets beaten and thrown back but the first tackle attempt can't bring Brown down and he falls into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 48-7, 10 min 4th Q. Charting ceases here; it's Potempa time.

FINALLY.

Yeah, no kidding.

Rock rock rock rock?

Much less so. First down breakdown:

• 11 passes for 151 yards.
• 20 runs for 108 yards.

It was a more balanced than that early; once the second half rolled around Michigan was heavily run-biased. Also, Henne mentioned a couple of incorrect checks early when he would see an opportunity for a run and Purdue would check into an eight-man front late. All told, this was the most balanced and aggressive gameplan of the year.

Purdue had Michigan's attention and the playcalling reflected that. I hope the staff won't curl up in a ball, figuring that a road night game against a team with a potentially crappy offense is a good time to call the Avalanche, especially given what appears to be a serious weakness in the secondary.

This, of course, is the occasionally frustrating part of the DeBord oeuvre: when there is a near 50-50 mix of run pass and Michigan is truly taking what the defense gives them, things like 48 points happen and things like the chart below happen and everything is very nice and it's like "finally, they will learn" and then they totally don't. Sometimes stuff like the Henne fumble happens, but the rewards are, in many situations, worth the risks.

I would also like to note something for the "possess the ball" freaks out there: Michigan didn't actually do a good job of possessing the ball, many times scoring quickly on a long completion or via the help of a long completion, other times picking up a single first down and then punting. The turnovers distorted this a bit, but Michigan had a whopping nine first-half possessions, which is as many as they had in the entire Eastern Michigan game. Purdue's style of offense helped Michigan out immensely by failing and failing quickly, allowing Michigan to assert their superiority.

This may give some insight into why Purdue seems so helpless against the better teams on their schedule: when things go wrong for the Boilers they go wrong quickly. Purdue has a lot of 45 second drives and their opponents get a ton of cracks at what's been a shaky defense the past few years. The results are halftime scores like 31-7 instead of 16-8 and little chance to steal victories in ugly, close-scoring games. On the other hand, when things are going well they go well quickly and scores balloon the other direction.

Charts?

Charts. I've separated out Mallett and Henne on the Hennemallettchart. Results:

Mallett
Team	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Oregon (1/2)	3	7	2	3	1	1	2
ND	2	7	4	1	0	2	0
PSU	3	12	6	3	6	1	2
NW (1/2)	2	5	4	1	1	1	1
Henne
Team	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
The Horror	2	22	8	2	1	0	2
Oregon (1/2)	1	13	6	3	1	0	3
NW (1/2)	1	19	4	1	1	1	0
EMU	4	16	1	0	1	2	1
Purdue	3	20	1	1	1	1	2

(Hennemallettchart Legend)

Obviously an outstanding day from Henne of the sort we all dreamed of in the preseason. No ugly interceptions on horrible reads -- the one ball Purdue could have picked up was inaccurate, not a bad idea -- and only two mistakes that can be blamed on the QB all day. Michigan can beat anyone in the country if Henne plays like that regularly... a brief glimpse up at The Horror indicates that is no slam dunk. Still, there is nothing to criticize; that was an All-American performance.

Protection: 35/42. Butler -3, Long -1, Hart -1, Ortmann -2.

Receiverchart:

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Manningham	1	1/1	1/1	6/7		9	2/13	7/10	33/35
Arrington	-	1/2	1/1	4/4		5	2/7	11/14	25/26
Mathews	1	-	-	2/2		3	0/4	2/4	18/20
Hemingway	-	-	-	-		2	-	-	2/2
Massey	-	-	-	-		2	0/3	1/1	3/3
Butler	-	-	-	2/2		1	0/2	-	8/8
Hart	-	-	-	1/1		4	-	-	5/5
Minor	-	-	-	-		-	-	0/1	2/2
Moundros	-	-	-	1/1		-	-	1/1	1/1

One drop, that when Manningham's eyes got big on that zone PA screen we inexplicably debuted late in the third quarter, and a couple catches in the "1" category. A near-perfect day from this unit as well.

The Hart Chart went up on like Sunday or Monday or something ridiculous like that. Long still dominant; Boren rebounded from a tough outing or two; Schilling is approaching neutral as well. Note that this week's chart does not include Brown's carries, unfortunately.

Yeah, so how about Carlos Brown?

He seems like the exact opposite of Hart: a guy with questionable vision and little in the way of moves who has the speed to jet into the endzone if you give him a crease (and he sees it). The questionable vision could be due to inexperience -- he spent the spring at defensive back, then broke his hand -- and might develop in the future; Hart-like moves are not likely to. His two slashing touchdown runs were encouraging and he seems much less likely to get decapitated by a charging safety than Minor; he'll have a shot at the job next year. We're likely to see a four- or even five-headed rotation early.

What was the deal with all those tight formations?

Hell if I know. Several times we loaded up with two tight ends plus a fullback and plowed into the line with little success; on a couple other instances we motioned in Arrington and gave Purdue the same look. Also little success, as Purdue shoved eight and nine men to the LOS and sold out against it. I'm repeating myself from the table, but any formation that takes Arrington or Manningham off the field in favor of Chris McLaurin is probably a bad idea. The threat of those two guys virtually forces opponents to keep a safety back or play soft on the corners, loosening up the front. I don't think Michigan should singlehandedly combat spacing out

One oddity worth noting: Michigan seems to screw around with some new toy in every game, then shelve it. Against Oregon it was the TE-pull counter zone. Against EMU it was a twins set that covers up the TE. Against Purdue it was this tight formation. (Nothing of note happened in the Notre Dame, Penn State, or Northwestern games, likely because Mallett was starting and the playbook was restricted.) I miss the TE pull, which gave Michigan's run game misdirection and had an excellent suite of play action plays off of it from the fake-block TE drag to the TE actually blocking down on the DE, allowing Henne time to look for some deeper routes on the waggle. This other stuff not so much.

Heroes?

Pick someone. Henne, probably.

Goats?

Carson Butler was responsible for getting Henne hit on the fumble, picked up a holding penalty on a Hart draw, and had a few other instances of shoddy blocking. (His false start was not his fault, however.)

What does it mean for Illinois?

Illinois, like Michigan, has thrived on turnovers in their wins and may not be that good defensively. One definite trend:

	QB	Att	Cmp	Int	Yds	TD
10	Chase Daniel	54	37	0	359	3	142.7
14	Anthony Morelli	38	21	3	298	1	114
12	Tyler Donovan	49	27	2	392	2	127.6

That's 6.6 YPA, 7.8 YPA, and 8.0 YPA against one good quarterback and two mediocre-at-best ones. They've gotten to the QB a lot -- 14th in sacks -- but the secondary looks ripe for the picking. Even last week's opponent, Jake Christensen did 17-25, 182, 1 TD. That's 7.3 YPA. Meanwhile, the rushing defense is 27th and did a decent job against PJ Hill (4 YPC) and a heavily utilized Iowa attack (also 4 YPC). More passing seems the order of the day.

Simple equation: protect Henne and light up the scoreboard.

My Name Is Henri, The Otter Of Ennui

10/13/2007 - Michigan 48, Purdue 21 - 5-2, 3-0 Big Ten.


Is it better if the opening two weeks of the season were a prelude to enormous disappointment or a soul-crushing aberration? After brief consideration the answer is obviously the latter, but the lingering effect of The Horror and the post-apocalyptic Oregon game has, unfortunately, put a damper on what should be a time to celebrate an emphatic win. We finally get what everyone envisioned when they put on their nightcaps August 31st and dreamed sugarplum dreams of the season ahead, and the result? Mostly "aaargh, this reinforces everything I already thought."

Hey, don't ask me, ask the MZone:

This team has had seven chances to look impressive this year. They're 1 for 7 so far. Even in baseball, that's a horrible average. Their best wins before Saturday - Penn State and Notre Dame - had as much to do with their opponents' incompetence than Michigan's superior ability. Games against patsies Northwestern and Eastern Michigan were struggles far longer than they should have been. And let's not forget the first two games as much as we would like to.

Well, that's... mostly depressing. And then there's this guy from the open thread:

Wow, this game makes me so pissed about the first two weeks of the season.
Homer | 10.13.07 - 2:51 pm | #

Well... yeah. There is no Michigan fan out there who saw the game or even just the score and didn't have a momentary what-if spasm about missed field goals and unspent timeouts and the whole Oregon fiasco.

The deranged are still there. Those deranged in the opposite direction -- not cited here, as said lifeforms tend to exist exclusively in the true believer zones of premium message boards -- have erased all memory of the systemic flaws this coaching staff exposed for the nth time and are not thinking about possible pratfalls hence. Both are annoying genres of person to interact with, as they typically resort to sarcasm instead of acknowledge that things are not perfectly bad nor perfectly good, deny that they think things are perfectly bad or good when challenged on their continual optimism or pessimism, and imply that anyone who thinks differently than they do is either an idiot or a greedy child.

But to be in the middle is to be bored, lazy, lackadaisical. Yay we beat Purdue by lots. Boo we fell out of the national championship picture before October for the ninth time in ten years. Yay we beat Penn State. Boo we were crushed by running quarterbacks. Yay we're probably going to play Ohio State for the Big Ten. Boo Tressel will eat our babies. It's hard to get excited either way once the immediate flush of "oh my God we don't suck" passes.

It's nice not to suck. It is. But we've seen this script before. It ends poorly. To get excited is to be vulnerable; caution and forced boredom is the order of the day. I am buying a beret and some urchins to smash upon my tummy. I will watch some reality television and complain about the weather. I may remark on the fact that the urchins these days don't taste as good as urchins used to. No quality in these urchins.

It's a front, but it's a useful one. Otter Lucy is holding the otterball for Otter Charlie Brown; get back to me in November to see whether we rush towards the cliff, hopes aloft, in 2007.

Bullets:

• Shawn Crable takes some great pictures:
  
• Attn Joe Tiller: escaping with a 27 point loss does not maintain your dignity.
• That said, can we please recover an onside kick? That's four straight we've failed at, which has to be approaching an NCAA record.
• More special teams hijinks: huge returns for Purdue followed by a kick out of bounds and then the failure to even pop the ball up to the 30. It's depressing that Michigan has to kick off like it's a high school team.
• KC Lopata, on the other hand, looks like a completely uninspiring but largely accurate kicker, which I will take.
• Does Carr hate Tiller or something? The starting offense was in for way longer than anyone expected and Michigan actually punched in a couple of late touchdowns to push the score out to a prodigious margin. Every year, the Sporting News quotes some anonymous Big Ten coach who trashes every other program, saving special venom for Carr and Michigan. This is always Tiller -- TSN caveman Tom Dienhart and Tiller are BFFs. Maybe Carr's just tired of it?
• Henne's PC had one interesting comment in it: early on, Purdue was doing a you-check-we-check thing on defense that confused some playcalls. This was probably the cause of the two ineffective Hart runs that led to Michigan's first punt.
• The parabolas that drop directly into the waiting arms of Mario Manningham returned. I missed them so.
• Until Carlos Brown's touchdown explosion, I was convinced we were going to suuuuuck at running back next year. Minor hasn't made a yard the offensive line didn't get for him all year save for his spectacular truck job on a Notre Dame safety; Brown had spent most of his time either fumbling or running directly into the backs of his offensive linemen. Both have been disadvantaged by the mop-up situations they find themselves in, but McGuffie will have a major opportunity, IMO.
• Ciulla saw the field late; is he healthy enough to play? Will he be healthy enough for Illinois? Is the Schilling-Ortmann right side a voluntary decision?

Purdue Press Conference

Carr Pt 1:



Carr Pt 2:



Henne:



Taylor:



Chris Graham:



Nice suit.

Jamar Adams:

Purdue Torrent

...can be found here.

Purdue Open Thread

Diabeetus.

Preview: Purdue

First, Alan Weymouth on the last game and the upcoming one:

Obviously, another flat week for Michigan. Alot of second and third string guys playing significant minutes and I think this had something to do with the problems we saw.

Defensively, we stayed out of the that godawful 3-3-5 alignment this week, and controlled the run game for the most part. Michigan tried to work on keeping contain and did a decent job for the most part...but Crable loves to freelance and doesn't always carry out assignments. I really don't like him at DE. Most of Eastern's yardage came from the QB run at the end of the game. We still showed some vulnerability to the zone read. and until our DEs carry out their assignments, we'll have those kinds of problems. I don't think we'll see alot of true Zone Read stuff this week, but with Illinois on the horizon...

I thought Slocum looked good. He drew alot of double teams for a guy who played his first game this week. Ezeh and Logan played pretty well. We're still not good at recognizing the draws, and that really needs to be fixed this week. We've improved a great deal on recognizing screens though. Ezeh in particular looked much better against all the screens. The secondary made a few plays this week, Trent with a couple of nice PBUs. Good tackling will be a must this week against Purdue, as they rely on alot of YAC.

Offensively I'm still shaking my head. Henne makes some of the dumbest throws I've ever seen. Is it just me, or is he still throwing the ball like Braylon is playing WR for us? Run game dominated. I liked Ortmann at tackle... I'd prefer Mitchell at guard and Schilling in the weight room. I have some real problems with Schilling. He's turned out to be a better pass blocker (generally) than run blocker which is opposite what we were told. He doesn't seem able to really get a lot of movement on his guy inside, and often gets knocked around a bit. The one sack was obviously Schilling getting owned by the EMU DT. We also had a few breakdowns in the protection scheme up front that nearly got Henne sacked as well. Most of this I blame on our interior 3. Boren is having trouble getting to those DTs in the A gap. I've always been told that these Zone blocking OLs should keep their shoulders square to the LOS, but Boren often ends up out of position here. Perhaps he doesn't quite have the quickness neccessary to play C. Might be one of the reasons we see some fumbled snaps here too.

I think we can run on Purdue. They've given up yards each week in the run game. The question will be, can we control the numbers in the box. If Henne doesn't start getting things together, Purdue could give us alot of trouble by shutting down Hart.

All in all though, this game doesn't worry me like the Illinois game. The Illini are on a roll, and we still aren't there defensively. We've got alot of work to do between now and then.

Run Offense vs. Purdue

Mike Hart's broken 100 yards in every game of the season so far and is a good bet to do so again. Purdue's unlikely to be as horrific against the run as the 2006 edition of the Boilermakers, but they might not be far off. Witness this remarkable stretch of the Minnesota-Purdue game. Minnesota takes the kick to open the second half, and...

Qtr     Team            TStart  StLn    Result  Plays   Yards   Time
3 Minnesota  KO 15:00 34 TD 5 66 1:42
3 Purdue    KO 13:18 20 TD 9 80 3:41
3 Minnesota  KO 09:37 25 TD 7 75 2:27
3 Purdue    KO 07:10 10 TD 10 90 3:43
3 Minnesota  KO 03:27 12 TD 12 88 4:18
4 Purdue    KO 14:09 36 TD 6 64 1:16
4 Minnesota  KO 12:53 35 TD 10 65 4:03

The game was 24-3 Purdue at halftime; no meaningless TDs against token opposition these, except insofar as the Purdue defense represents "token opposition" even when it's trying hard.

Seven straight kickoffs, seven straight touchdown drives of significant length, four of them Minnesota's. The Gophers did large chunks of this on the ground, picking up 232 yards on 6.3 YPC, then promptly going out and rushing for under two YPC against OSU. It was less of a bloodbath against Ohio State, but the Wellses combined for 159 yards on 33 carries without breaking anything longer than twenty yards. The evidence points to a run defense that's still pretty crappy.

Mike Hart, meanwhile, leads the nation in yards and has worked himself back into the Heisman picture despite playing on a trainwreck of a team that lost to Appalachian State. Some of this is sheer mind-numbing repetition -- 44 carries against Penn State, 30 inexplicable ones against Northwestern -- but a large portion of it is just Mike Hart's ineffable ball of awesome.

One disturbing recent trend: Michigan's stretch game is getting overplayed to good effect by defensive tackles. Against Penn State, Northwestern, and Eastern Michigan, Hart was often forced to deal with tackles who had blown overmatched center Justin Boren into the backfield. Sometimes this was okay; sometimes a second player got penetration and killed Hart's carry. The predictability of zone-left-zone-right-zone-left-zone-left has allowed opponents to sell out against it and slant hard to whatever side the offensive line steps to. When Michigan has deigned to misdirect it has been extremely effective, but those instances have been few and far between against opponents Michigan apparently does not respect.

Most teams would look at a sluggish 4-2 Michigan team versus anyone who's 5-1, no matter how fraudulent, and file them in the "respectable" category, which would mean a heavy dose of play action and the zone counter stuff, and likely a big day for Hart. I remain skeptical, however, and think we might see more of the same unless Michigan finds itself down. The thing I'll be watching for early: can Purdue get any DL into the backfield? Michigan's gone up against some good ones of late, but early in the season this wasn't a problem against Oregon and ND, largely because the guys they had in the middle of their defense sucked. Purdue might be that bad -- a quick check shows 2 TFLs each for their starting DTs -- and Hart could rumble downfield at will even without the EXTREME TRICKERY of a counter or two.

Key Matchup: Justin Boren and Random Right Guard against DT penetration. This was the key last week and is also the key this week. Michigan's struggling badly against 4-3 DTs slanting into the backfield. Some of this is on DeBord, but some of it is on the offensive line. Michigan's tendency to rush for negative yardage (with a freakin' senior version of Mike Hart) has killed many a Michigan drive this year.

Pass Offense vs. Purdue

Would you believe that 34% of Notre Dame's total yards on the season were Jimmah and Evan Sharpley passing the ball against the Boilermakers? It seems impossible, but the two combined to go 34 of 52 for 377 yards and three of those "touchdown" things that everyone seems to be talking about Notre Dame not getting any of. (They also threw two picks between them.) Even if Joe Tiller called the dogs off up 23-0 at halftime, Notre Dame narrowed the margin to 26-19 in the fourth quarter: these were no mere garbage time feats of strength.

It's tough to tell how meaningful any other QB performance was. OSU's Todd Boeckman completed 58% for 200 yards and 7.4 YPA but threw three interceptions. CMU's Dan "I've Got A" LeFevour also went nuts, throwing for 364 yards on 54 attempts with two touchdowns to one interception, but Purdue led 31-0 at halftime and likely spent the second have in a leisurely prevent. The rest of the players on the schedule are awful. But so is Notre Dame, who promptly flew out to LA and won against UCLA with a whopping 140 yards of total offense, returning to glory and reclaiming the nation's worst offense in one fell swoop. Anyone capable of giving up 377 yards passing to them has to be a bottom-barrel sort when it comes to pass defense.

Meanwhile, Michigan is 83rd in passing efficiency but has some mitigating factors. True freshman Ryan Mallett started half the season (half of the Oregon game, all of Penn State and Notre Dame, and half of Northwestern) and while he shows promise he's also completing less than half his passes. Chad Henne wasn't much better in the soul-crushing opening 90 minutes of the season and managed to throw two ugly interceptions against Eastern Michigan, but is a senior with a track record that's mostly good at this point. Against Eastern and Northwestern he was efficient and accurate, which might not mean much against actual defenses; this is where we refer you to the 377 yards Notre Dame put up.

Henne had time in the pocket and sliced apart two middling secondaries; given that Purdue is 76th in sacks and might not have Cliff Avril, the only Boiler with more than one, he should have time. Given the 377 yards, he should have open receivers. This should, emphasis on "should", be a field day. It won't be given Michigan's general malaise this year, but the opportunity is there.

Key Matchup: Chad Henne vs Regular Inexplicable Decisions. Henne's thrown four interceptions this year, and all of them have been questionable to downright awful decisions. Michigan can't afford to kill another promising drive by throwing it into double coverage in the endzone.

Run Defense vs. Purdue

Purdue has faced two MAC teams currently ranked 100th and 113th in total defense, a I-AA team, and two virtual I-AA teams in Notre Dame and Minnesota. Against these teams, they've averaged 45.4 points per game. Against Ohio State, they trailed 23-0 late in the fourth quarter before picking up a garbage-time touchdown. OSU is second in total defense and first in scoring defense. Michigan, despite their performance against Oregon, is at neither of these two extremes.

This is a sizable unknown, especially because nominal Purdue starting tailback Jaycen Taylor is out and nominal Michigan starting linebackers Chris Graham and Johnny Thompson may or may not play; definite starting defensive tackle Will Johnson missed last week's game and may not be 100%, though he's expected to play.

One thing we're sure to see plenty of is the zone read and its misdirection-laden ilk, which torched Michigan in the first couple weeks of the season and has been intermittently effective since. The additions of Brandon Graham and, recently, Marques Slocum has given the Michigan defensive line depth it desperately needed, allowing tubby but effective Terrance Taylor to get a blow when he needs it and preventing offensive linemen from getting out too quickly on Michigan's crappy linebackers.

Kory Sheets is a fairly good Big Ten back and will slash his way for 3 or 4 yards per carry. Curtis Painter isn't John Navarre but neither is he Dennis Dixon; Michigan will have to watch for his scrambling and the occasional zone read keeper. CJ Bacher and EMU's Andy Schmitt had some sporadic success scrambling; Painter will probably find a similar number of opportunities to run.

Key Matchup: Taylor/Johnson/Slocum versus the interior Purdue OL. The linebackers will be confused and hesitant; the safeties will have to play back; the Purdue offense lives on shortish second and third downs... Michigan will have to get penetration from the DL to get the Boilers out of their offensive comfort zone.

Pass Defense vs. Purdue

For a brief recap of the season to date and how useless it is for making projections, please see "Run Defense." Curtis Painter's numbers were silly fantastic against a wide array of useless teams until meeting a brick wall in the form of Ohio State; Painter did rack up 268 yards and a touchdown but required 60 passes to do it, completing "just" 31. This seems to confirm this blog's preseason diagnosis of Painter as a scattershot passer with major accuracy issues likely to stop throwing so many balls to the opposition.

That theory will be put to the test against a Michigan secondary that's suddenly jumping routes, blanketing receivers, and making plays on a regular basis... against Northwestern and Eastern Michigan. Purdue has Dorien Bryant, Greg Orton, and Selwyn Lymon. They are way, way better than any group of receivers Michigan has faced since Oregon, and everyone knows how that went unless you blacked out from the pain sometime in the second quarter. (And if so, wow what a comeback! We won 45-32! Don't look this up anywhere!)

This could go in many different directions: we jump stuff that Painter throws to anyway, getting picked off, or they pick the right time for a double move and torch our potentially questionable safeties (or overthrow it by six yards); we lay off and they complete YAC stuff underneath; Warren blows a tackle and turns it into 20 yards. I don't know. I suspect both teams will alternate good plays with bad ones and this is mostly a draw.

Another potential issue: the Boilers have an outstanding tight end in Dustin Keller and Michigan's linebackers have been liabilities in coverage much of the year. Andrew Quarless is still waving his hand twenty yards downfield, futilely hoping Anthony Morelli will throw him the damn ball.

Key Matchup: Warren, Trent, and Harrison versus YAC. Michigan's been excellent about jumping the short routes at key times the past couple weeks, but against teams with mediocre receivers. Purdue has the ability to get any of its top three guys deep; Michigan will probably have to lay back more and tackle securely. All three corners have had issues with this at times, especially freshman Warren.

Special Teams

After a year of hideous performance, Purdue's Chris Summers has made a remarkable turnaround. He's 8 of 10 on the year after going 8 of 20 last year; Purdue has a major advantage at kicker.

Dorien Bryant returns both kicks and punts; senior receiver Desmond Tardy also chips in. Both Bryant and Tardy have kickoff return touchdowns, albeit against weak competition. Given Michigan's occasionally shaky coverage teams, this could be another problematic area.

Bryant is unlikely to get a significant opportunity on a punt return with Zoltan playing excellently; Purdue's counterpart is thoroughly average. A slight Michigan advantage here.

Key Matchup: KC Lopata, please don't suck.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Another defensive tackle spends his day escorting Boren into the backfield.
  
• It's AppSt redux in the zone read.
  
• Henne throws another brainlock pick or two.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Michigan's suddenly competent secondary sticks to the receivers like whoah.
  
• We test out the Purdue secondary early and find it to be vaporware.
  
• We kick a goddamn field goal or two.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Ack Spread Option, +1 for Ack Better Record, -1 for Very Likely A Fraud, This Team, +1 for But Then What Are We?, -1 for 34% Of ND's Total Yards? You Suck, -1 for Hart Will Tear Them Apart).

Desperate need to win level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Apparently This Team Is Close To Falling Apart At The Seams And A Loss Against Purdue Could Easily Be The Start Of An Ugly Death Spiral, Or At Least That's What Multiple Tipsters Tell Me, +1 for We Should Probably Emphasize That DEATH SPIRAL Thing, +1 for This Really Is A Hinge Game, +1 for Have I Mentioned The Death Spiral?)

Loss will cause me to... doodle "Brian Miles" surrounded by hearts on my trapper-keeper.

Win will cause me to... well... basically the same thing.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Michigan is not a particularly good team, but Purdue's limp defeat at the hands of OSU despite three interceptions of Todd Boeckman -- a phenomenon that looks fluky as hell given Purdue's results against Notre Dame -- indicates that they aren't much of one either.

Michigan's offense is going up against what looks like a bad defense potentially missing its best player; the Boilers don't have the sort of defensive tackle capable of slashing into the backfield like Michigan's last three opponents, and Chad Henne appears to be back and functional against a team with little pass rush and a potentially wonky secondary. Let's not get ahead of ourselves -- Michigan is not a good offense and will stop themselves from time to time -- but 30-40 points is likely against this D given the number of opportunities Purdue's pass-mad spread will give them.

Defensively, I expect the corners to stay aggressive and the safeties to stay conservative. Michigan will give up a number of completions over the deep middle after play action suckers the linebackers up, plus a double-move or two against excessively aggressive corners and some short YAC-y throws against excessively passive ones. However, an array of Michigan pressure, the occasional jumped route, and the occasional Painter misthrow will force Purdue to punt after picking up a first down or three frequently.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Hart: 35-208-2
  
• We yield one ugly, long touchdown.
  
• 32-27, Michigan.