Unverified Voracity: Diamond Dallas Page Edition

I do not think that study means what you think it means. Swanky new Nebraska blog The Big Red Network collects, divides, and distributes numbers about the BCS in a post on bias, comparing the average computer ratings for every conference with their average AP rankings over the last eight years looking for evidence of dread East Coast Media Bias -- their caps, not mine. Findings:

On average, the 24 SEC teams appearing in the Final BCS standings were rated more than one full spot higher by AP voters than by the computers. The 10 Big East teams were actually ranked a half point lower on average by AP voters than the BCS and the thirteen ACC teams were also ranked a half point lower by the AP than computers on average. ... Notre Dame appeared in the BCS three times in eight seasons and on average got boosted one full spot by AP voters. ... The twenty Big 10 teams appearing in the final BCS standings in the last eight years were also a full point higher on average in the AP Poll than in the computer polls. ... The twenty-six Big XII teams appearing in the Final BCS rankings 1998-2005 were rated an average of nearly one full spot lower by the AP than the computer averages.

Leaving aside data issues, there is a faulty assumption at work here: declaring the computer polls unbiased and correct. Computers don't have traditional Argh Liberal Media biases, but they do have some annoying tendencies. Primary amongst those is overrating teams that studiously avoid any semblance of competition. Witness Texas Tech last year. As a participant in a poll with slightly less history and prestige than the AP poll, I can tell you that I hated the Red Raiders with a fiery passion because there was no evidence indicating whether or not they something more than the terror of the sandbox. Unwilling to credit a team for eight-hundred point victories over Nowhere State, Texas Tech lingered at the foot of my ballot essentially all year. AP voters agreed, but the computers must have a pro-pirate bias:

Last season, Texas Tech was dinged five spots by the Associated Press (maybe they saw the game in Lincoln).

That is another way of saying "the computers hilariously overrated Texas Tech." I'm normally a fan of computer everything -- someday computers will make toast! -- but when it comes to ranking football teams there is not enough data to create something reliable, especially when margin of victory is removed from the calculations. BRN has it backwards: if there is a problem here it is with the bitflippers.

Georgia Tech's secret weapon revealed! It's Diamond Dallas Page!

No, seriously. It's Diamond Dallas Page. Copious thanks are owed Paul Westerdawg for bringing the AJC's latest gem (ha! I kill me!) of unintentional comedy to my attention. It must be blockquoted to be believed:

When entrenched in "Yoga for Regular Guys," nothing's easy. And when Page, a former world champion professional wrestler, shows up to drill Tech's weekly class, it's like boot camp. Given a choice, blacking out might rank ahead of yelling back.

"I know you're going to kick Notre Dame's [hint: he didn't say leprechauns]!" bellowed the freakishly lithe Page, a 50-year-old human cable.

Okay. Okay. Breathe. Where to start?

• Calling someone a "former world champion professional wrestler" as if that's some sort of accomplishment on a par with a gold medal in the 100 meters is like calling Sean Connery a former secret agent.
• This sentence purporting to be a quote appeared in Georgia's largest newspaper: "I know you're going to kick Notre Dame's [hint: he didn't say leprechauns]!"
• Diamond Dallas Page is described by what is probably an adult male as "freakishly lithe," which are words that conjure up images of something entirely different. Something with poles in.

And this is only two paragraphs. Wait. No. This can't be a legit article. Someone hacked the AJC this morning. This can't possibly be real...

"It helps me with flexibility and relaxes the muscles," said defensive end Darrell Robertson. "But I hate the 'Downward Dog,' where you're on all fours and your butt's in the air."

...can it? I mean, the phrase "commando yoga" is used. Where's Allen Funt?

Etc.: Justin King had hernia surgery; Nico of Roll Bama Roll relates his experiences in directed reading, which did not include "a report about the different theories and things like that"; Bill Simmons wants blood.

Unverified Voracity: Auburn College-Like Substance Edition

Okay, I hate the Kings. Thanks, LA, for being the douchiest douches in the NHL. According to WTKA they've signed recruit Trevor Lewis, the 17th pick in the '06 draft, before he even reached Yost, severely damaging Michigan's chances to do anything this year. If I ever find myself in physical proximity to the Kings GM I am going to go Zidane on his ass. (Shoot the messenger @ Yost Built).

The puzzling lack of Auburn blogs is suddenly explained: no one who went to AU can read. Especially if he happens to be able to run over linebackers. The New York Times drops a bomb on the Tiger program with accusations that 18 academically tenuous players received 97 free credits from "directed reading" courses that were even jokier than Notre Dame's business administration program. To wit: read a book, write a 10-14 page paper that seems like English if you squint, and viola: three credits of "A."

Braves & Birds has an extensive post on the subject that lays out the situation. Key passage that's sure to lead to tremendous frustration whenever the NCAA gets around to dealing out punishment:

Based on the experience of the NCAA's investigation into Tennessee's grade-fixing scandal, I think the key question is ... : were these light reading classes only available to athletes? That's the important question from the NCAA's perspective. Tennessee got off the hook, despite hard evidence that players regularly had their grades changed to stay eligible, because they were able to convince the NCAA that regular students had the same ability to petition successfully to have their grades changed. Will Auburn be able to make the same showing?

The answer to this question is found in the NYT article:

Professor Petee’s directed-reading classes, which nonathletes took as well, helped athletes in several sports improve their grade-point averages and preserve their athletic eligibility. A number of athletes took more than one class with Professor Petee over their careers: one athlete took seven such courses, three athletes took six, five took five and eight took four, according to records compiled by Professor Gundlach. He also found that more than a quarter of the students in Professor Petee’s directed-reading courses were athletes.

... which is the same as saying that almost 75% of the people in the directed reading courses were not. The NCAA has an escape hatch here that they'll almost assuredly take despite the fairly obvious scam going on here, proving that the best way to cheat and not get caught is to further degrade the academic standing of your university by letting everyone cheat. I mean, this is obvious academic fraud:

Mr. Langenfeld then went to his academic counselor in the athletic department, Brett Wohlers, with a plea: “I got dropped from a class and need a class to stay eligible for the bowl game,” Mr. Langenfeld recalled in a recent telephone interview. “I need a class, and I’ll take any class right now. I don’t not want to play in my last bowl game.”

He said Mr. Wohlers told him about a “one-assignment class” that other players had taken and enjoyed. So in the “9th or 10th week,” Mr. Langenfeld said, he picked up a directed-reading course with Professor Petee. Semesters typically run 15 weeks.

Mr. Langenfeld said he had to read one book, but he could not recall the title. He said he was required to hand in a 10-page paper on the book. Between picking up the class and handing in the paper, he said, he met several times with Professor Petee in his office.

“I got a B in the class,” said Mr. Langenfeld, who started in the Sugar Bowl against Virginia Tech. “That was a good choice for me.”

The athletic department was involved in setting this class up and there is a clear pattern of abuse here; this passage and this passage alone should be sufficient for a major loss of scholarships and a severe bowl ban, in my opinion, especially given that Auburn gets in trouble about every other year because they just don't learn... or rather, they do.

By contrast, a friend of mine is a GSI (this is a fancy name for TA for those unfamiliar with Michigan nomenclature) had two Michigan players in class, one a star, last fall and reported that emissaries from the athletic department peered in the windows every week to make sure they were present and accounted for.

MNB and EDSBS also have takes on this Auburn thing; EDSBS commenters point out that this Petee guy is a Notre Dame grad. Ha!

Etc.: Rember Flozell Adams? Don't date him; Mike "Library" Cooper gets his day in court.

Commissioner Gordon For A Day

Okay, Bruce. Bruce Ciskie's invited Blogpollers to ape SI's "Commissioner for a Day" series, presumably because the SI version is full of useless suggestions like "put the NHL All Star game in Europe." Jack McCallum is the worst offender in this category, spending his ten edicts on the following:

• Muzzle PA announcers
• Alter the dress code
• Put press back on the floor
• Curtail crazy introductions
• Schedule NBA-NBDL doubleheaders
• Police anthem length
• Create wives section
• Make retro night "cheap"
• Make the finals 2-2-1-1-1
• Don't let players call TO without clear possession
• GET OFF MY LAWN

For those counting, there's one self-serving YAY JOURNALISM suggestion, two useless scheduling suggestions, one suggestions that's already a rule, and a whopping six suggestions that amount to "mutter mutter kids these days... putting music videos in the beef." Jack McCallum should be put in a home.

("Music videos in the beef" is the totally awesome phrase of totally awesome comic Jesse Popp.)

Where was I? Right: football. Mandel's are better than McCallum's -- faint praise, that -- but manage to dodge the pressing issue of the day.

1. Eight team playoff.

We've been here before. Top five conference winners, one non-BCS team conference winner, and two at-large slots. First two rounds at campus sites in December, final @ the Rose Bowl. This system maintains the tension of the regular season -- one loss is probably the difference between a home game in round two and an away one -- but relaxes things a bit, allowing interesting non-conference games.

Another key aspect of the system: the seeding/at-large selection process ignores non-conference losses. You get rewarded for the quality of your wins, but the only penalty for losing is the loss of whatever points you would have gotten for winning.

2. No I-AA games.

Period.

3. No more than one guarantee game per year.

One preseason-type opener against a team that's going to get whacked is fine, but any more than that is a tedious waste of time and fan money.

4. Drop the Sun Belt to I-AA.

What is the point of that conference other than to supply vastly incompetent refereeing to Alamo Bowls? Not a single team in it has ever or ever will do anything other than get waxed by real I-A teams. Someone should do them a favor, kill their I-A aspirations, and save those schools a heap of money.

5. Tweak OT.

Though it does do a much better job of simulating actual football (the NFL version doesn't care whether you score a touchdown or not), placing the ball at the 25 offers a makeable field goal without gaining any yards. To cut down on excessively long OT sessions the ball should be placed on the 35 and you should have to go for two after the second OT period; after four OTs it's a tie.

6. Fix the fumble-out-of-endzone rule.

Probably the strangest rule in football is that a fumble that goes out of the endzone you'd like to reach is a turnover and a touchback. On all other fumbles that leave the field of play, the offense retains. A fumble that goes out of the endzone should be brought back to the point of the fumble.

7. Add a flagrant pass interference foul.

It only happens occasionally, but when it does it's irritating: a defensive back beat deep sees a choice between a touchdown and a 15-yard penalty, chooses the penalty, and tackles the receiver. Equally irritating is watching NFL games decided by an extremely tenuous bit of hand-fighting or incidental contact adjudged to be a 55-yard pass interference penalty. It's like making all facemask penalties 5 or 15 yards. Football should give refs discretion in these potentially game-changing situations.

8. Implement NFL-style challenges.

...because clearly the replay officials are not up to the task. Either that or automatically replay all important plays that are remotely questionable.

And while we're at it, could we get some replay officials that, you know, know the rules of football? Twice last year Michigan was robbed when obvious non-fumbles were judged to be turnovers by replay officials. Even more egregious than the Peko "fumble return" was the Bass play in the Iowa game, which was correctly ruled on the field and then overturned despite clear visual evidence that the ball did not come out until Bass' elbow impacted the ground.

9. Crack down on this facilities ridiculousness.

This is impossible to enforce, but marble lockerrooms full of PS6s are a bit much.

10. Assign Mark May and Lou Holtz to the WNBA.

Orson Swindle, Ian from Sexy Results, and SMQB are the new studio team.

Zidane! Zidane! Zidane!

Zidane's FINISH HIM headbutt was destined to become Internet memery from the moment the fateful blow landed. I will now waste hours of your day by cataloguing those that tickle my fancy; sorry.

YouTube







YMNTD

Zidane in NES Soccer

ZIDANE LOVE BUTTERFINGER

Zidane Owns Fidel Castro

Zidane saves Materazzi from a familiar MGoBlog foe.

What Is Zidane?

Pokezidane

Zidane vs. Death Star!

O RLY?

Super Zidane Mushroom

Lego Zidane.

Bill Cosby, for some reason.

And, finally, A Break From All The Zidane YTMNDs. Features you-know-what.

Something Awful













And many, many more.

(HT to In Dodd We Trust (Not that Dodd) for the SA link.)

....aaaand of course, the Zidane flash game. That's all.

Unverified Voracity: Z Agrees Edition

Anyone not wishing to wade through the Wisconsin preview but in desperate need of Badger news -- and what a strange, finicky person you are -- should know they've lost two players, incoming freshman WR Daven Jones and third-string LB Jammar Crane. Badger Sports characterizes the losses as "one pinprick, one stab wound," with Jones being the stab wound.

Warning: above link contains an awful pun. You have been warned.

More season preview than you can shake a stick at, unless you're like a professional stick-shaker or something. I'm pretty sure I saw the PSSL on ESPN2 some night they could have been broadcasting hockey. Er... digression... what?

Oh. Maize 'n' Brew's Michigan season preview consists of twelve opponent previews of copious length. Vanderbilt is up first.

Dr. Z is indeed a god who strides amongst us. He's crotchety and has no time for any of the things I have no time for; he also was so incensed by the World Cup Final that he wrote a cranky column defending Zidane. At its end:

I'll tell you another thing. I just about had a bellyful of this Balboa guy. First he complains about all the flopping. Then, when France gets away with one to set up Zidane's penalty kick in the first half, he tells us that the guy "did a great job of selling it." Yeah, a great acting job. Accent on great.It's like hearing Balboa congratulate a pickpocket for the deft way he lifted a guy's wallet.

Sweet, sweet validation.

FYQ. An interesting article from the Star-Tribune on the extensive TCF-Minnesota deal that will result in an on-campus, open-air "TCF Stadium" for the university contains what is possibly the understatement of the year:

With few new college football stadiums being built, TCF's pact with the university is likely to remain rare.

"I don't think you'll see a big rush to it," said Jay Lenhardt, manager of sports practices at CSL International, a sports facilities consulting firm with an office in the Twin Cities. Because of traditions at older college football stadiums, Lenhardt added, "it's going to be difficult ... to change the name, for example, from Michigan Stadium to a corporate name."

This is what I think he meant:

"It's going to require wading through a sea of axe-wielding maniacs to change the name of Michigan Stadium."

There's also this weird proviso:

If the school erects a lighted sign on the stadium exterior that says "Home of the Golden Gophers," any nearby sign with the words TCF Bank Stadium must be illuminated "with the same or greater lighting quality and intensity."

Ugh. Anything's better than the Metrodome, but if I was a Minnesota fan the omnipresence of TCF would irritate me to no end. The corporate naming of stadium has always been a mystery to me, as whenever I hear something like "Comerica Park" I make a little note to myself to never, ever bank with Comerica. I can't be alone in this, can I?

Etc.: A Michigan grad wins the Deadspin World Cup pool; mentions EDSBS in victory post; does not mention MGoBlog; sobbing lasts hours.

Wisconsin Preview: I Dunno, You Tell Me

Sorry for the late timing... this took longer than expected.

The Story

My angle! My precious angle!

Thousands of Wisconsin previews written by hacks across the country had to be hastily re-edited when Pat Fitzgerald became Northwestern's coach. Brett Bielema was the youngest head coach in D-I for all of six months; now he's not even the youngest in the Big Ten. Whither our angle? Tragedy!

It's probably too much to hope for sportwriters to focus on what will be one of the league's most interesting teams. Blessed with a shameful non-conference schedule and the absence of Ohio State and Michigan State from the conference portion, Wisconsin has the schedule to make a long run but must replace nearly the entire offense save suddenly-great QB John Stocco and a pair of offensive linemen. The receivers are unproven but one is a 6'4" track star and the other one is named "Randel El," the offensive line is prone to launching into doggerel about eating nosy guys with magic beans, and there are supposed to be five running backs. The defense looks strong on paper with eight returning starters and a couple of legit stars in DT Nick Hayden and FS Roderick Rogers, but that paper was good for 92nd in the country a year ago. And, yes, someone who is not Barry Alvarez is coaching the team.

So what will happen? I abdicate. I've spent hours combing stories, previews, player profiles, statistics, tarot cards, &c and have come up with nothing definitive. The OL could be great! It could be awful. The WRs could be great! They could be awful. The defense should rebound! Or maybe not. You'll get nothing definitive out of me on this team ready for mocking at season's end. Wisconsin will either be good or bad. If they are not, they will be average. Bold!

Offense

Last Year: Out-of-nowhere great. Brian Calhoun was a one-year revelation, torching Big Ten defenses by ground and air on his way to the NFL. John Stocco went from terrible to damn good seemingly overnight. The offensive line blocked, the receivers caught, and all was well.

Too bad they're all gone now.

Quarterback

Rating: 4. Nowhere was MGoBlog's remarkable power to transform crappy quarterbacks into John Elway via criticism more evident than in the personage of John Stocco. Witness last year's preview:

John Stocco was a mess last year and it would be surprising to see him make it through this year without getting in a serious quarterback controversy. ... I can't understand how he's the starting quarterback of a program with a pulse.

Ha. Ha. Ha. I am the funny guy: Stocco finished last year 13th in passing efficiency. Despite only throwing seven more times in '05 than '04, Stocco added 28 completions, nearly 1,000 yards, and 12 touchdowns to his totals. There were a multitude of reasons for this -- RB Brian Calhoun was a brilliant receiver, the offensive line was at its experience apex, the receivers were veteran an deep -- but primary amongst them was the addition of offensive coordinator Paul Chryst, who brought an innovative set of throws that took advantage of the unique abilities of TE Owen Daniels and Calhoun without unduly testing Stocco's middling arm. The pair combined for 75 catches. When Stocco wasn't making high-percentage throws to those two, he was bombing it deep to Brandon Williams and Jonathan Orr. He made good decisions, made good throws, and then got a lot of YAC help from a set of athletic receivers. The catch, of course, is that none of those receivers return. Stocco has established himself, but still seems to lack that certain something the greats have. He's not the kind of guy to drive a team by himself and last year's engine is now in the clutches of Matt Millen.

Should Stocco go down, however, Wisconsin is in a heap of trouble. Backups Tyler Donovan and Justin Sherer have not impressed. Witness coach Paul Chryst's response to a question about the two:

"Luckily, we've got John."

Ouch.

Running Backs

Rating: 2. Wisconsin's irritatingly endless supply of yard-hoarding backs will be put to the test after Brian Calhoun transferred, pwned the Big Ten, and jumped to the NFL draft. He's now a Lion, so mutual regret is projected to kick in by September. Also gone is Booker Stanley, who was both awful and prone to beating the hell out of civilians. He made one wrong move too many and was dismissed over the offseason. Returning are a grand total of 31 collegiate carries and nothing resembling the hype generated by Calhoun's transfer-imposed redshirt year.

More disturbing than the tolerance shown for Stanley's behavior was that shown his totally inept running -- please don't pay attention to his approximately five yards a carry last year, as almost all of his carries were against the BGSUs and Hawaiis of the schedule -- as it indicates that his plodding, fall-over-at-slight-contact style was the best option left the Badgers when the ball didn't go to Calhoun. You can probably write off junior Jamil Walker and senior Dywon Rowan as a result. That leaves redshirt freshman PJ Hill as your projected starter. Hill seems to have Stanley's temper -- in February he was arrested for wielding a bat outside of a Wisconsin dorm -- and size at 235 pounds, but Wisconsin has to hope that he has something other than his talent-like substance. I have my doubts despite the puff-job coming from the coaches and media, as Bielema is talking about having four or five guys who are in competition for the job. Running backs are sort of like quarterbacks with greater amplitude: if you say you have five, you don't really have any.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Rating: 3. Gone are Jonathan Orr, Brandon Williams, Owen Daniels, and their 121 catches. Back are Marcus Randle-El, Paul Hubbard and their, er, two catches. Obviously, question marks abound.

Deadspin, just in case you didn't get the reference. In
which case you should be ashamed.

Randle-El proves the old maxim "Mothers, don't name your younger son 'Marcus' when your older son is a ridiculously exciting mobile quarterback because he is guaranteed to be a knucklehead if you do." He's holding on to his spot on the Wisconsin team by the thinnest of margins after a pair of arrests in under a year. As a result, his playing time to date has been sparse. This year he's thrust into the spotlight more by default than anything else. Will he live up to the Randle El name? In some way, probably. He's physically reminiscent of his brother as a 5'10" slot receiver-type, but no one will confuse him with Antwaan. He's not explosive but has good hands. Hubbard is another near unknown, a 6'4" track star who sounds tantalizing but only played in five games a year ago. Over the offseason he finally made a decision to pursue football foremost and emerged as a starter in the spring. He's obviously athletic -- national champion in the triple jump -- but is just as obviously raw.

Wisconsin will be relying heavily on one or two of the four freshmen they bring in this year, but the recruit Badger fans had highest hopes for, Daven Jones, didn't qualify and won't make it to campus. The best bet to see a lot of time is Lance Kendricks, a 6'4" vertical threat who ESPN ranked #106 last year and got four stars from both Scout and Rivals.

This group, neither obviously bad or obviously good, are the biggest swing vote on the team. If they excel the offense will hum along like it did last year; if they fall all over themselves Hill isn't going to be able to carry the team by himself.

Offensive Line

Rating: 3. Much like Penn State, Wisconsin has an All-American-level left tackle and a lot of worries. Seniors Donovan Raiola, Jason Palermo, and Matt Lawrence are gone; redshirt sophomore Kraig Urbik moves from right tackle to guard. Only Joe Thomas, the aforementioned badass LT, is sure bet to excel. Or at least he would be if not for offseason surgery to repair a torn ACL suffered in the Citrus Bowl. Two true sophomores step into starting roles, RT Eric Vandenheuvel and LG Andy Kemp. Center goes to junior Marcus Coleman, the smallest man on the line at a mere 6'5".

As stated before, projecting offensive linemen is futile business, but Vandenhuevel and Kemp leapt onto the two-deep immediately upon arrival, saw time as true freshmen, and are now starters. Either Wisconsin is in deep trouble or they're about to have two anchors for the foreseeable future. I lean towards the latter. The silver lining in the Thomas injury was some reassurance that Vandenheuvel is marked for stardom. Coming off the bench cold and facing one of the SEC's best defensive lines, Vandenheuvel held his ground:

The Badgers received a boost when Eric Vandenheuvel, a 6-7, 340- pound freshman from Hudson, stepped in at left tackle and played well against an excellent Auburn defense in his college debut.

"He sure looks the part," Alvarez said of Vandenheuvel. "I didn't see any breakdown. I don't think anyone came over him. It's magnificent for him, a freshman who can step in and perform like that."

In high school he played next to Urbik, albeit on the left side of the line, which should ease his transition into starting. Chalk it up to excessive Badger-related optimism, but this line seems like it'll transition smoothly enough to a new generation of impossibly huge guys paving the way for oft-overrated running backs. It will be rough at the start -- it has to, especially with the Thomas injury -- and thus the "3" rating, but I would look at it more as a 2-progressing-to-4 by year's end.

Besides, how can you go wrong when you've got this guy...

Bob Dole. Bob Dole! BOB DOLE! ... is apparently UW's new offensive line coach. In yet another article about recruiting and text messaging, this passage made my day:

[Text messaging is] bad news for coaches like Bob Palcic, the newest hire on Bielema's first staff. Palcic, who was hired Monday to coach the Badgers' offensive line, said he barely knows how to use a cell phone, much less text messaging.

"If they do eliminate text messaging, that will be a positive for Bob Palcic," he said, "because I'm still just a guy who likes to talk to people on the telephone."

Bob Palcic's teaching the offensive linemen. Bob Palcic's going to the store. Bob Palcic's trying to mash the tiny buttons on a cell phone to tell some punk kid to have a good time tonight. Bob Palcic fought in 'Nam! Bob Palcic has a purple heart... Bob Palcic doesn't need this bullshit!

...as your offensive line coach? Bob Palcic fought in 'Nam!

Defense

Last Year: Ugly. Unable to decide if what they were bad at was defending the pass (458 yards to Omar Jacobs, 361 to Brett Basanez) or defending the run (a whopping 411 yards to Minnesota, and 282 to Penn State), Wisconsin decided to go with "both" and finished 92nd in total defense. A spate of injuries I would have sympathy for if I didn't spend all of last year watching shots of Mike Hart on the sideline mitigates those numbers somewhat. At times last year Wisconsin was missing 3/4ths of its starting defensive line.

That injury run may turn into a blessing in disguise, as a ton of experience returns but there is still a lot of reason for concern: the cornerbacks are still under suspicion and the linebackers are almost entirely raw.

Defensive Line

Rating: 5.

Hayden: much tougher than this photo implies.

Returns a ton of experience despite the dismissal of two players but no dominant stars. Defensive tackle Nick Hayden is the closest thing to one and may reach that level this year, however. He was a big-time recruit two years ago (Michigan finished second for him) who saw time immediately upon arrival and started his entire sophomore year, finishing with outstanding numbers: 56 tackles, 9 TFL, and 5.5 sacks. If he plateaus at that level he'll still be an All-Big Ten type. If he makes a further jump he'll be pushing for All-American honors.

Next to Hayden will be joined by Jason Chapman, who was downright respectable as a true freshman, and Justin Ostrowski, who was going to be Hayden's running mate before suffering a slew of injuries. Both should be at least competent and will probably be better.

Unfortunately for UW, the defensive end spot is still injury-wracked. Jamal Cooper and Matt Shaughnessy both were both hampered in the spring with knee injuries, Shaughnessy out entirely. In their absence Kurt Ware, Joe Monty, and Brian Kelly all got positive reviews. Expect the Badgers to rotate their defensive ends extensively based on down and distance. Cooper, Kelly, and Shaughnessy are all undersized edge-rushing types -- though Cooper may be less so now with a few years in the weight room -- whereas Ware and Monty are bigger and stiffer against the run. Starting may be a ceremonial duty, but in the case of defensive ends if you have five you really do have five.

Linebackers

Rating: 3. TFL leader MLB Mark Zalewski returns but there is no experience anywhere else on the unit. Sophomores DeAndre Levy and Jonathan Casillas step into starting roles; behind them is not much other than redshirt freshman Elijah Hodge, Abdul's brother. Both projected OLB starters did see time a year ago (Levy had 18 tackles, Casillas 10) but it will be different when they're relied upon to play against teams not named "Temple" or "Indiana."

Zalewski is a good middle linebacker who should have impressive numbers this year operating behind Hayden, Chapman, and Ostrowski. He's not much for cutting through chaff but that particular weakness is not likely to come to the forefront this year, which should allow the three linebackers -- reputed to have great speed, all -- to flow to the point of attack without too much disturbance. The OLBs will no doubt have their share of growing pains, though.

Defensive Backs

Rating: 2.

Langford. There's a joke in here somewhere.

This was a horror show on par with anything the Northwestern or Illinois defenses could throw out there. Stripped of talismanic Jim Leonhard and underrated Scott Starks, the Badger secondary established that they were available for torching early on in a crazy Playstation opener against Bowling Green that the Badgers won 56-42. Falcon quarterback Omar "Predator" Jacobs went whatever the Predator-equivalent of buckwild is, going 30-51 for 458 yards and five touchdowns. Brett Basanez had a similar day (361 yards, 3 TD) and Drew Tate was similarly efficient if less spectacular. The only thing that saved Wisconsin's secondary was yeoman work from the defensive line and a rich procession of teams with bad quarterbacks. As a Michigan fan, I wake up every Tuesday screaming about the Wisconsin game after seeing another wide open Michigan flailing ineffectually at a Henne rocket six yards over his head. (Tuesday is Wisconsin horror day; Wednesday Notre Dame; Thursday Minnesota, etc., etc., etc.) Wisconsin was very fortunate to miss Troy Smith and Drew Stanton a year ago or things may have gotten ugly.

Things will be touch and go again this year. Cornerback Brett Bell graduates, leaving the position in the hands of two true sophomores, Allen Langford and Jack Ikegwuonu, who struggled a year ago. There is no depth to speak of. Senior Zach Hampton, a career special teamer who "could be moved to safety" (read: "is slow") is the nickel back going into the fall. Behind him is redshirt freshman Aubrey Pleasant, who Wisconsin stole from Michigan State late in the 2004 recruiting year and is also constantly accused of being slow. If either starter gets injured the consequences will be severe; even if they stay healthy there will be trouble in nickel and dime packages.

The safeties are in somewhat better shape as both starters return. SS Joe Stellmacher, a former walkon, was the team's second leading tackler and honorable mention all-Big Ten a year ago, but is limited in coverage at 220 pounds and only exacerbates the nickel-package issue. FS Roderick Rogers was quite good, however, displaying great range and breaking up 11 passes. One play against Michigan stands out: RB Max Martin ran a wheel route down the sideline and Henne managed to hit him right in stride except for the small matter of Rogers managing to get all the way over from a deep middle zone to break up the pass. It was an excellent play and one that made a difference in the Wisconsin win.

Special Teams

Kickers & Coverage

Rating: 4. All Big Ten punter Ken Debauche returns. He finished eight in the country in gross punting average with almost 45 yards a kick a year ago. Even more impressively he managed to get most of those kicks high and limited opponent return opportunities. Wisconsin finsished the year 12th in net punting. Kicker Taylor Melhalf was good a year ago, kicking 14 of 20.

Schedule

Non-Conference: Embarassing. A odd-but-charming trip to Cleveland to play Bowling Green opens the year and is the only game Wisconsin shouldn't allow fans to watch for free. Home games against Western Illinois and San Diego State follow; the season finishes up with what should be a thriller against Buffalo. Bielema is taking the bull by the plane ticket to anywhere without bulls. Except those of Buffalo.

Conference: Wisconsin misses Ohio State and Michigan State, which will come as a relief to the beleaguered secondary, but has a nasty opener @ Michigan. Coming off the weak non-conference schedule, Lamarr Woodley & Co will be a nasty shock to a young offensive line. If Thomas is still gimpy the task gets even tougher.

We're Sure About

Nothing. Okay, okay...

The Defensive Line. Outstanding depth and a couple of players who can disrupt plays in the backfield. The surest bet on the team since Stocco's performance will hinge dramatically on the performance of the players around him.

We Have An Idea About

The Offensive Line. Admittedly speculative tea-leaf reading indicates that Bob Palcic will have these guys ready to go. If Bob Palcic sees any loafing, Bob Palcic's going to kick some ass. They can't possibly start off very well -- youth everywhere and Thomas probably won't be 100% to start -- but should steadily improve throughout the season and end up as one of the Big Ten's better units.

We Have No Clue About

Bielema. Alvarez made a calculated gamble by naming Bielema his heir a year ago. He's never been a head coach anywhere, though his pedigree as a defensive coordinator at Kansas State is an excellent one. Now he gets to impose his philosophy on a football team for the first time. Wisconsin has been a good program for a decade now, but doesn't have the recruiting base a Michigan or Ohio State does and is thus in a precarious spot. Only time will tell whether Bielema can continue the legacy left by Colonel Kurtz.

The Wide Receivers. Both Hubbard and Randle-El could be great. They could also be useless.

An Embarassing Prediction, No Doubt

Best Case

Everything is wonderful everywhere except cornerback and running back -- no one will replace Calhoun this year -- and Wisconsin misses nothing in the transition from Alvarez to Bielema. At Michigan early in the year will be an uphill battle as will that secondary versus Drew Tate, assuming Iowa finds some receivers, but Wisconsin can split those and sweep the rest of the schedule to go 11-1.

Worst Case

The offense has no bottom if Wisconsin finally comes up empty when it goes to its endless pile of running backs and the line plays like a bunch of sophomores the entire year, but there are four to six automatic wins on the schedule and they won't be bad enough to lose the rest of their games no matter what happens. 7-5 is the likely minimum.

Final Verdict

The pain of losing Calhoun will be immense, especially when you consider the loss of not on his rushing but his 53 receptions out of the backfield. People are pumping up PJ Hill as a good receiver, but Calhoun's diminuitive stature allowed him to make the quick shifts that got him open and moving in the right direction before the defense could react. Hill is 235 pounds. He might be able to catch, but defenses will be on him much quicker than they were Calhoun. Stocco will have to look elsewhere. The line will steadily improve but will probably cost the team a game or perhaps two early in the season.

The defense should improve from last year's ugly performance but teams with a tendency to spread the ball around and force extra defensive backs into the game will cause problems. The linebackers are unproven, too, but a good, deep defensive line will shield them from many problems and help shut down the run. Fortunately for Wisconsin, only Michigan and Iowa are threatening teams with experienced quarterbacks.

Wins: Buffalo, SDSU, Western Illinois, Illinois,
Probable Wins: @ BG, @ Northwestern, Minnesota, @ Indiana
Tossups: Penn State, @ Purdue
Probable Losses: @ Michigan, @ Iowa
No Chance: None

I withdraw my previous Wisconsin-pumping. They'll get to 9-3, but a weak schedule will be one of the main reasons.

Hello Steve Watson

Football has picked up a surprising commitment from tight end Steve Watson from Denver, CO, who was not even on the recruiting board. He seems underrated by Rivals -- three stars -- given his offer list, which consists of most of the Pac-10. USC was interested and pursuing, but whether or not they offered is not clear. Scout did give him a fourth star.

Watson is the son of former Denver Broncos receiver Steve Watson, who apparently ordered some sort of Internets blackout on the young man. There isn't much out there save for this rambling post on a Husker board that you are urged to take FWIW:

During the testing I saw coach Gilmore and he said right away, "I got your email!" I had emailed him after the spring game and told him thanks for spending so much time with the boys and that they had raved about NU to their tight end, Steve Watson, (who Coach G said he had as the number one rated TE) and that Steve plans to visit. I told him him and coach Blake about the Notre Dame assistant getting kicked out of Mullen and they cracked up and wanted me to find out which coach it was. During the testing Coach G came over to us to ask if we were familiar with another Colorado athlete from Arvada West HS. Jonny, my husband and I were all like YES! Ryan Hill is a total stud and Jonny has played lots of baseball against his little brother. He wondered what our opinion was about him compared to Watson!
I said well, Watson is very developed and at velocity every nite and works with the Broncos etc, and that Hill is very raw (not rocket science) but Gilmore said EXACTLY my take and makes me feel like a million bucks! unbelievable!

always inspires confidence in a scouting report.

The bigger picture: I think Martell Webb is still a tight end since Michigan didn't recruit any except maybe Quintin Woods last year. That means that all the in-state TEs (Rooks, Joplin, Weaver) are probably SOL.

In related news, the ESPN150 is out and has been roundly criticized for being horrible in all possible ways. In general I consider offers to be the most credible barometer of a kid's talent, so when there is a vast disagreement between offers for, say, Joseph Barksdale (everyone) and his ranking (not ranked), I revise my estimate of the scouting service's competency more than that of the player. Is Marcelo Balboa doing this list?

Is That A Pulse?

Meet Corperrayle "Manny" Harris, who is sort of like Reed Baker except tall and exciting and from Detroit and not seriously considering life at the Citadel. An '07 shooting guard ranked #45 in his class by Rivals, he committed to Michigan yesterday. He plans on decommitting in August or September.

I keed, I keed. Mostly.

The Internet has copious information on the rapidly rising Harris. Here is a Scout profile. If you would like something more saccharine, the Detroit News has you covered; there is also a recap of Harris' second straight PSL championship with Detroit Redford.

More to the heavy-breathing point, he's #45 with a bullet and may not be done moving up the charts. His performance at this summer's shoe camps generated serious buzz. He was cited as the #2 "riser" coming out of the recent Nike camp by both Rivals and SchoolSports.com via SI:

2. Corperryale Harris, Redford (Detroit)
Harris had a great day at both ends of the court. The 6-foot-4 guard was a pest on the defensive end, getting numerous deflections and steals, which often led to easy baskets for his team. But he was even better on the offensive end, scoring in transition, from 3-point range and on hard drives to the basket. In his first game of the day, Harris dropped 19 points, including two 3-pointers and a monster dunk over 7-foot Solomon Alabi of Montverde Academy (Montverde, Fla.).

PrepSpotlight is speculating that Harris may end up in the top 25 soon ($); interest from UCLA and Kansas certainly implies that is a possibility. Erstwhile MSU Rivals guy Steve Bell describes Harris' game like so:

Harris' game is similar to that of a young Latrell Sprewell, not aesthetically pleasing or fundamentally sound, but full of energy and hustle. He is one of those "sticky" players who is always around the ball, whether loose, off the glass, or from an opponent's dribble. Harris is the type of die-hard that U-M's roster has sorely lacked.

What, doesn't Courtney Sims count?

"Speedy" Walker, Harris' AAU coach, gets the last word:

This buzz wasn't always the case for the wiry Harris. Not until last summer's growth spurt, actually. That's when, according to Walker, "a 5-11 scrappy player became a 6-4 scrappy player." All of a sudden the defensive stalwart and superb point guard became a threat at two more positions -- the 2 and 3. And, all of a sudden, an unranked prospect catapulted to the top 50 by season's end. "Defense is the best part of his game," Flowers said. "He's a ball-hawk, 94-50. He can take it to the basket with the best of them. And his floor game is getting even better. He's a great point guard (already)."

A good get and one that doesn't seem likely to end up in the always-burgeoning pile of decommits. However, the excitement over Harris' commitment is dampened somewhat by Amaker's questionable decisions to accept Rutgers transfer Zach Gibson -- though presumably Michigan's actually seen Gibson in action -- and Baker, leaving only one scholarship remaining in the '07 class. Another Michigan guard, Laval Lucas-Perry, is in the process of blowing up. He has an offer from Arizona but not one from Michigan, and he may not get one at all if Amaker decides that he needs an '07 post. Que lastima.

Unverified Voracity: Orange Seizure Edition

SMQB has previewed Michigan. Run, don't walk. His numbers-based defense of Henne...

Michigan fans know now what Henne can do (throw hard) and what he can't (run; throw accurately short-to-medium balls with a high rate of predictability), and if he's not Matt Leinart, or even Brady Quinn, he is at least slightly ahead of John Navarre's pace - 5,800 yards and 48 touchdowns in two years, with a 59 percent completion rate and an improving TD-INT ratio (23-8 in '05, compared to 25-12 as a freshman), should invalidate, or quiet, much of his "Hennebriated" reputation. Though it probably won't.

...doesn't take Michigan's WR screen bonanza into account, but that's nitpicking. SMQB does highlight a particular deficiency of last year's Michigan offense -- long passing -- that is emblematic of the offense's struggles, encompassing the turnstile offensive line, erratic quarterback, and limited WR corps in one ugly number. Which is 15.

IBFC has crunched the 4th quarter numbers and his findings are as terrifying as you might expect:

Up less than ten
1995-1999: 13-1 (93%)
2000-2005: 8-10 (44%)
That's right ... in the last 6 years, we are more likely to lose a game than to win it if we go into the 4th quarter with a small lead.

Why? Vijay says it's the turnovers, stupid:

We have won the turnover battle in the 4th quarter only 3 times. We have lost the turnover battle 10 times.
We have caused 10 turnovers and committed 20 in the 4th quarters of such games.
We have committed at least one 4th quarter turnover in 14 of the 18 games and forced turnovers in 8 of the 18.

Not surprisingly, when we win the turnover battle we are 3-0 and when we lose it we are 3-7.

Michigan, a conservative team that is +32 over the past eight years -- the second-best number in the Big Ten -- somehow turns into Michigan State with a late lead despite getting even more conservative. At least a small part of that is Michigan running bad; in poker parlance they've had a lot of games lately in which they've been sucked out upon. Another part of it is the scaredy-cat zone Michigan usually runs late in games which is not conducive to forcing turnovers or anything except extra points. Bleah. English will make it all better?

(Vijay has also posted the Woodson interception.)

One of the obscurer pleasures of previewing teams like Illinois is chuckling at the wide-eyed optimism of party-organ websites. Sure, sure, Illinois is on the way up. Orange is feared by all far and wide. I would like to tell you about the rabbits. Already mentioned in the preview were the babies, but did you know that Zook and the Illini taped encouraging Christmas messages for US military personnel stationed abroad? The mind boggles. What could Ron Zook and his 2-9 Illini have to say to some guy in Afghanistan? Some theories:

• "You'll overrun the enemy like six-year olds against our defense."
• "Remember: failure is an option."
• "If at first you don't succeed, try a bubble screen."
• "I just want you to remember what you're fighting for: Illinois football."
• "Anyone 5'6" or taller is hereby offered a scholarship."

Also, the existence of this cock-rockin' video reaffirms my faith in humanity. Featuring jump-cuts between Illinois highlights -- hey, we got past the line of scrimmage! slap that in the video! -- interspersed with shots of Zook looking fierce like Siberian bear, it's the perfect gift for anyone looking to give Orson Swindle a seizure.

Etc.: Smart Football has followed up the game-theory post with a couple additional ones. I noticed some scoffing at the notion of Texas Tech being "balanced" according to this metric on EDSBS, so I'd like to clarify my position: the balance we're talking about is a proper distribution of run and pass plays to maximize yardage. Given that your team has a particular offense and a particular set of personnel, there's an optimum run-pass ratio that keeps defenses guessing and takes advantage of what you're good at. Tech's doing this.

At Slate, Robert Weintraub defends Dave O'Brien... but does not defend Marcelo Balboa.

Illinois Preview: Team Redacted

This one isn't quite as extensive. I'm sure you understand.

The Story

The Ron Zook era started out well enough with a thrilling overtime victory over Rutgers, but whenever the phrases "thrilling overtime victory" and "over Rutgers" find themselves in the same sentence their buddy "harsh reality check" cannot be far behind. Illinois' did not arrive until the Big Ten opener, but when it did it took the form on an unholy beating at the hands of Michigan State that did not let up until Northwestern handed the Illini their ninth straight loss in the season finale. Over that stretch of eight games, Illinois allowed every team they played at least 35 points, lost by at least 17 points every week, and were obliterated 36-13... by Indiana(!). By the midpoint of the season the only people watching Illinois games were pissed-off Florida fans, who traded tapes of the debacles and watched them intently in pitch-dark rooms full of unpleasant, familiar noises best left unspeculated upon.

Yea, and woe followed him wherever he was suffered to lay his head.

Started on both sides of the ball last year.

It is likely things will improve during Year 2 of the Zook Epoch. One of the reasons the Illini were so bad at... well... everything is that this totally weird "tribute to the seniors" featuring picture after picture of cute babies serves as a fairly accurate assessement of the average age of the team. Illinois returns every starter from last year save fullback Jason Davis, defensive tackle Ryan Matha, and exhausted punter Steve Weatherford. A fair number of those starters were wet-behind-everything freshmen in way over their heads. Strides towards competency are probable, but there's a long, long way from last year's Travelling Bye Week extravaganza and respectability.

Offense

Last Year: Not good, but not the defense, either. Illinois managed to finish 47th in rushing yards -- the only stat tracked on the NCAA's team page that the Illini were better than 71st in -- and 72nd in total offense, but how many of those yards were pity yards gained against third-string walkons? Survey says "lots".

Quarterback

Courtesy of The State Journal-Register, Springfield, IL

Rating: 2. Senior Tim Brasic's numbers from last year are surprisingly tolerable on the surface -- a 61 percent completion rate and 424 yards rushing -- but with only 5.9 yards per attempt and 11 interceptions, Brasic didn't generate enough positives to justify the chance of a turnover or drive-killing sack. Some of the blame has to be placed on the offensive line, who yielded a massive 32 sacks last year, but Brasic's just another guy. The bubble-screen orgasm that is the Zook offense has a lot of dead simple throws that tend to drive up yardage and completion percentage metrics without requiring any actual skill on behalf of the quarterback (something Chad Henne benefited from extensively last year). When Brasic attempted something so daring as an actual downfield pass the results were often disastrous.

If things go poorly with Brasic, Zook might say "to hell with it" and insert true freshman Isiah Williams, the jewel of this year's recruiting class. Williams' implausible senior-year stats: 1,441 rushing yards at 21.8 yards per carry and 1,841 passing yards on only 128 attempts with 22 touchdowns and three interceptions. He's guru-approved and potentially the kind of guy who can lift the downtrodden into a state slightly less so a la Antwaan Randle-El. One caution: Williams only completed 56% of his passes as a senior, but it's not like Zook's going to have anything to lose after September.

Running Backs

Rating: 4. Bizarrely deep. Pierre Thomas and EJ Halsey return for their senior seasons but will have to hold off a challenge from sophomore Rashard Mendenhall, who -- get this -- was in the Rivals 100 two years ago. Between the three of them they had 1231 yards on 259 carries (4.7 each) and a fairly astounding 79 catches for only 492 yards (6.2 each). If you needed any further proof of the screen-y hell that is the Zook offense, there it is. Thomas, who got about half of the rushing yards last year, is the proverbial thunder to Halsey's lightning and Mendenhall is a combination of both.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Rating: 3.

Hudson.

Sophomore Kyle Hudson led Illinois with 31 catches and actually managed to get 15 yards per catch -- there is downfield passing! -- but I'd be lying if I told you I had any idea who he is. Receivers on terrible teams don't often get attention since it's usually focused on whatever grotesque injury is being inflicted on the quarterback this time. Hudson did have a 10-catch, 114-yard performance against Wisconsin but that's probably less impressive than it sounds given the way everyone with a half-functional quarterback diced the Badger secondary a year ago. Still, a freshman Hudson had more catches and more yards than Mario Manningham, Derrick Williams, and their hype entourages. He's one to keep an eye on, especially because you can count the inaccurate references to his valuable role as a possession receiver from their inception.

A rotating cast of other minor contributors has one name of note: sophomore Derrick McPhearson, who ended up at Illinois after an academic sojourn that took him to Virginia's Fork Union Military Academy. The year before McPhearson committed to Florida and then-head coach Ron Zook -- evidence of both considerable talent and questionable judgement. McPhearson missed a few games with a broken leg and finished the year with only 13 catches, but his role should expand greatly as a sophomore.

Offensive Line

Rating: 3. The line, like everything else, was crap a year ago but this unit has a better excuse than most. The Illini found themselves starting two juniors, two sophomores, and a freshman and were unsurprisingly overwhelmed. This year all five starters return and the Illini can employ the services of Oklahoma transfer Akim Millington, who was projected to be a starter before his sudden departure. Millington will probably boot LT JJ Simmons to the bench and be the line's best player the day he steps onto the field.

They could be okay if things work out, but those 32 sacks in an offense that's pathologically reliant on short passing indicates extensive problems that will probably prohibit a rise to "good."

Defense

Last Year: Almost literally non-existent. Behold:

• Rush defense: last.
• Pass efficiency defense: second to last.
• Total defense: third to last.
• Sacks: second to last.
• Scoring defense: third to last.

Jumping Jehosephat!

Defensive Line

Rating: 1. I don't care that three of four starters return; the assumption here until proven otherwise is that the Illinois defense will be a mere rumor to opposing offenses. Defensive tackle Chris Norwood's 7.5 TFLs are nice, but that's about it as far as playmaking goes. The true sophomore defensive ends were awful a year ago and will probably be slightly less awful this year, but I'm saving all my miracle points for "Lloyd Carr understands probability"; "Illinois defensive line is half-decent" will have to wait.

I mean, what does it say when you're so desperate for any positive recognition that you grab a straw from freakin' College Football News and slap it up on your website? It means you're no good.

Linebackers

Rating: 1.

It will always be Burma to me.

See defensive line; I don't care that three starters return. This is what you need to know about the Illinois linebackers: one of them claims to be named "J Leman." No word on whether he plans on fleeing to Myanmar Burma.

Defensive Backs

Rating: 1. Detroit DePorres' own Sharriff Abdullah is the top returning corner; he is 5'8" and has zero interceptions and four breakups in about two full years of starting. This neatly summarizes the experience of being an Illinois cornerback: it's nasty, brutish, and you're short.

The previous paragraph is not entirely fair, since Abdullah's partner Alan Ball -- also from DePorres -- is both tall for a corner (6'1") and clearly better than Abdullah, but I plead Too Funny To Check. Ball's one interception and five pass breakups are not the stuff of legend, however, and the safeties are reminiscent of Cato June. Cato June before he was a Pro-Bowl linebacker.

Special Teams

Kickers & Coverage

Steve Weatherford's punting leg has been dunked in the sauna for the last time; in his place is some guy destined to be second-team All Big Ten for three years. Looking up biographical details of the new Illinois punter crosses the line from "fun hobby" to "dangerous obsession" and inevitably leads to something like the end of Requiem For A Dream and so will be forgone here, but I can tell you that kicker Jason Reda was 13 of 20 a year ago and banged in a 52-yarder, so he's all right.

Schedule

Non-Conference: One I-AA meatball (Eastern Illinois) then the thrilling rematch against the Scarlet Knights, a fascinating matchup of the Illini's Easily Movable Object defense versus Syracuse's Eminently Resistable Force offense, and a MAC game they could lose against Ohio.

Conference: Since Illinois is the worst team in the conference Big Ten bylaws mandate that they skip Michigan. Minnesota also misses out on a chance to whack the pinata.

We're Sure About

The defense. The scoreboard operators at Illinois games are going to get a nasty case of George Jetson button-pushin' finger.

We Have An Idea About

The running game. Could be... um... good with the return of all those running backs and the offensive line. It was half-decent a year ago.

We Have No Clue About

The future. As odd as this sounds, hiring Ron Zook looks sort of brilliant. Illinois is no longer recruiting MAC rejects and confused Eastern Europeans. If you believe the gurus, a meaningful number of Zook's first class of recruits could have played for anyone in the Big Ten not named Penn State, Michigan, or Ohio State and Illinois is off to a good start this year. It will take another year or two, but a respectable Illinois is a possibility in the near future.

An Embarassing Prediction, No Doubt

Best Case

The schedule is wonky enough and the bowls desperate enough that the Illini could wander on to the hallowed ground of some place like Shreveport, Mobile, or Fort Worth to take on the fifth place CUSA team if things fall right. Every starter returns and if some of the Zook recruits live up to their e-clippings in their first year there are enough teams of equal hopelessness -- Syracuse, Indiana, Rutgers, Ohio -- on the schedule that with a ton of luck and a victory stolen from the likes of Minnesota or Purdue the Illini could reach 6-6. But probably not.

Worst Case

Remember last year? This time they lose to Rutgers. 1-11.

Final Verdict

The good news: Illinois should improve, possibly quite a bit. The bad news: they could improve quite a bit and still win two games.

Wins: Eastern Illinois
Probable Wins: Ohio
Tossups: Syracuse, Indiana, @ Rutgers
Probable Losses: Purdue, @ Northwestern
No Chance: Iowa, Ohio State, @ Penn State, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State

It looks like 3-9, but an encouraging 3-9.

Unverified Voracity: SI For Kids Rules Edition

Northwestern's new coach is Pat Fitzgerald -- yes, that Pat Fitzgerald, the one who spearheaded the Wildcat defense during their improbable '94 Rose Bowl run. He's all of 31, the youngest coach in D-I.

Hate crime! Hate crime! Prepare for more boarding calls at Yost this fall, as the NCAA has re-affirmed its commitment to making even the slightest brush along the glass a five minute major and game misconduct. The NCAA Ice Hockey Rules Committee was undeterred by the frustrating results of that decision last year, which saw games won or lost based on how many innocous bumps were adjudged mortal sins. By the end of the year boarding, cross-checking, and charging penalties were all the rage as referees desperately tried to skirt the intent of the law. Despite the awkard-to-infuriating results, the "point of emphasis" returns to plague us anon.

There is no rationale behind this save-the-children hand-wringing. The NCAA's sudden interest in those little stop signs youth players wear stems from one incident in which North Dakota's Robbie Bina was sent to the hospital after an ugly hit from DU's Jeff Paukovich. Paukovich got two minutes; the NCAA flipped out and ruined dozens of games the next year because of a single incident, tragic though it may be. The same reasoning-type substance caused goofy, vision-obstructing nets to sprout over hockey rinks across the nation because of a girl's death at a Columbus Blue Jackets game. The NHL decided that 100 years of not killing their fans was a total fluke -- the girl had a rare condition that made her susceptible to head trauma -- and overreacted. These things are undoubtedly tragic but that doesn't make them statistically significant. I'm sure that sounds cold, but Bina's injury is the only serious one I can remember in the eight years I've followed NCAA hockey and the hit that caused it was so flagrantly illegal that any competent referee would have booted Paukovich immediately without needing a reminder from points of emphasis. Instead of reprimanding and possibly spanking that ref, the NCAA lowers the standard for dismissal to levels approaching self-parody. I only wish I could feign surprise.

One bit of good news: linesmen will wave off icing that results when an attempted pass does not connect, cutting down on stoppages in play.

All hail the geniuses of SI ... er... for Kids, who rank Michigan #2 in the country for reasons obscure. Michigan Sports Center is confused.

With the World Cup reaching its end, it's time for a bunch of posts about improving soccer. This year's edicion del mundial is running short on goals: the worst output since 1990, another cup that spurred rules changes. Some blame the ball. Others get the tinkering hat out. The Sports Economist has not one but two suggestion posts; Braves & Birds chips in a set; I've got mine:

• No more yellow cards for time wasting. Just add two minutes of stoppage time for every incident.
• Slightly relax offsides by allowing the offensive player to be past the defender as long as some part of his body overlaps, sort of like the blue line in hockey.
• (Maybe) remove offsides entirely once the ball enters the box.
• Players who are stretchered off must remain off the field for five minutes unless they were fouled.
• Review game tape and harshly sanction divers after the play is over, as Steve Wilson suggests.
• Allow the referees some discretion on fouls in the box. The all-or-nothing nature of the penalty kick causes referees to swallow their whistle in marginal cases and thus permits defenders to get away with actions that are fouls anywhere else on the field. I'm not sure what form the foul-that's-not-a-PK would take but it could just be a regular DFK from the spot of the foul -- dangerous but not 80-90% of a goal.

PKs are deadly to attractive attacking soccer. The referee's reluctance to impose them allows defenders to use illegal tactics to prevent attacks. The illegal tactics makes scoring from the run of play difficult, causing offensive players to swan dive like mad. The rampant flopping in soccer is not due to the character defects of swarthy Europeans but rather to a cost/benefit analysis that usually comes out in favor of acrobatic falls.

It's BlogPoll Time

All right: I have been fielding a steady stream of BlogPoll membership inquiries and have put them all off until RIGHT NOW! Feel the excitement!

So: in approximately two weeks the poll's membership will add a selection of blogs that have requested entry and excise those that have gone dark. To apply, send an email to mgoblog@gmail.com with your blog's URL and school of choice (if the blog does not make it obvious). If you've already sent me an email, your blog should be in a special category of my RSS reader already, but I would re-send it if you're paranoid.

Last year the poll took on anyone who wanted to tolerate the vote-entry interface, but as it's a little more established now the criteria for entry are going to be a bit more strict. The Admissions Committee* will be looking for the following things:

• An established readership on the order of hundreds of hits a day.
• An attractive design.
• 2,000 words of college football content per week during the season -- blockquoting articles doesn't count.
• Consistent posting during the offseason, though not necessarily as fevered during the season -- some offtopic-icity is fine.
• Participation in the roundtables and the CFB blogosphere in general.
• Coverage of teams that currently lack representation.

These aren't requirements -- you can have a template and still get in. Think of it like a point system: you get points for each category and if you edge past the line you're in. The most important thing by far is content, which -- despite what you may have heard -- is still king.

Changes should be finalized by the end of the month.

*(Me.)

Unverified Voracity: Ack Math Edition

Mathophobes can skip this section. I've subscribed to Smart Football for a while now and recommend anyone with an interest in the coaching side of the game do so as well. The latest post over there is titled "Run/Pass Balance and A Little Game Theory," which makes the tingly bits tingle. In it, proprietor Chris Brown proposes a different way of looking at run/pass balance based not on a straight ratio of run to pass plays but on the yards per play each achieves:

The idea is if you are a very good passing team you pass most of the time, then you run when it is favorable and see positive results without having had to practice it too much. Same goes vice-versa--we all know how dangerous play-action passes are from heavy run teams, especially say a veer option team.

Again, I don't think yards per rush and yards per passing attempt should be exactly equal--passes are riskier than running plays. Specifically, they more often result in lost yardage (sacks) and turn the ball over more often (both fumbles and interceptions). So you should expect your yards per pass attempt to be higher than yards per rushing attempt.

The idea here is that if your results from the running and passing are out of wack you should be adjusting your run-pass ratio in a counterintuitive fashion because the defense will be expecting you to do what you're good at. If your yards per play for both are approximately equal with the addition of a "passing premium" of about a yard per play, your offense is operating with the correct balance between run and pass: you've reached a Nash equilibrium that balances what your offense is good at with game theory considerations. The implications of this can be startling:

Pass-happy Mike Leach at Texas Tech attempted 697 passes for 4857 yards, averaging 6.97 yards per pass attempt. (I also recognize how many of these are shovels and the like but I'm just being simplistic.)

They ran the ball 172 times for 1040 yards, or 6.05 per rushing attempt.

...

The result? Tech, for all its crazy stuff, is pretty balanced.

What about Michigan? Last year the team ran for 1902 yards on 435 carries -- all quarterback rushes are counted as passing plays -- for (ugh) 4.35 yards per carry. If you include Henne's sacks/rushes, which were all passing plays save for two or three unsuccessful QB draws and a few sneaks, Michigan averaged (ugh) 5.85 yards per pass play, so they should have thrown more... I guess. Michigan's reliance on wide receiver screens that should more properly be classified runs seriously distorts those stats. In any case, it's an interesting way to look at things. Texas Tech is balanced in their way.

And another thing: Smart Football mentions in passing that certain stat gurus harp upon the as-of-yet fictional "yards per passing play" statistic as the most important metric in the passing game, but I think you can take that assumption a step farther. If you remember this graph from way back when...

...then you might have an idea in your head that the value of the yards you gain is not linear. Getting into third and one or third and two is much more valuable than third and four. I've had an idea to measure the expected value of each situation on the field -- third and six from your twenty, first and ten from their sixteen, fourth and twenty from midfield -- and assign "points" to each play based on the differences between each expectation. For example, you have a first and ten at midfield. On average teams in this situation find after the next score (by either team) they're up an average of 3.3 points. That's the expectation. On first down, Chad Henne wings one six rows into the crowd. You have second and ten at midfield, which is only worth 2.7 points. Chad is charged -0.6 points. BAD CHAD!

Anyway, add all that up and you get a measure of A) my insanity and B) offensive efficiency that is accurate by definition. Possibly coming soon-ish. Or late-ish.

Aaaaand another thing: That post keeps on giving.

Q. What's the only way to make Hal Mumme look smart?

A. Put him in front of sportswriters:

I remember someone asking Hal Mumme when he was at Kentucky about how his teams' yards per carry had dropped around a yard or so from the season before. The reporter was incredulous and turned red faced at Mumme's response: Mumme told him that he saw the same thing, and that to fix it he would throw the ball more. The reporter cut him off and essentially called him an idiot, mentioning that everyone knows you run better by simply running more (wear them down!).

Michigan: not so crappy at football after all. Paul Westerdawg has an interesting post up on the states that provide NFL talent. It has the usual states at the top (California, Florida, Texas), but supposed basketball state Michigan is #8 on the list with 50. Ohio has 78 and Pennsylvania 58. Insofar as NFL talent reflects collegiate talent -- an imperfect comparison, surely -- the implication is that OSU's main asset is not OMG Ohio High School Football but the fact that they're the only BCS school in their state.

Thufferin thuttcotath! Lou Holth: The Biography!

A standout is Holtz’s long-term position at Notre Dame, of special importance not just because of his devout Catholicism but also his refreshing devotion to strict academic standards for the players. In fact, what stands out is his modesty and adamant belief that football is ultimately less important than education.

EDSBS has your incredulous scoffing covered.

Etc.: Maize 'n' Brew ponders the eternal question "Is a Ball State ticket worth somewhere between 50 and 100 dollars?" and reaches the eternal answer "no"; Bruce Ciskie rounds up his roundtable, accuses MGoBlog of cheating and sucking, MGoBlog laughs at result of UW-UM football... er... hockey... er... basketball... er... softball (yeah! that's the ticket!) game.

Penn State Preview: That Old Magic

The Story

Sanity.

You find me a prediction from someone other than a 13-year-old from Aliquippa that projected Penn State winning a BCS game last year and I will find you an excellent supply of those tree frogs you can lick for a gooooooood time. In retrospect the entire thing seems like a hallucination: Michael Robinson, effective quarterback! Tony Hunt, All Big Ten runner! Penn State, Big Ten champs! There's a strong possibility that the only thing standing between Earth and the apocalypse was a referee-related-conniption-fit-causing loss to Michigan that set Penn State message boards aflame with conspiracy theories. But that was the only outpost of sanity in Penn State's ... um ... 11-1 ... Orange Bowl winning ... Big Ten Championship ... season. Memo to self: must quit the frog.

How did this happen? The leading theory, as is only appropriate for the only D-I team coached by an ancient brain-eating zombie, is a lot of really old guys. Seven starters are gone from the defense, as are four of five offensive linemen and quarterback Michael Robinson. In the game of football-teams-as-other-things so capably played by SMQB '05 Penn State has to be Walter Matthau, the crotchety old man of college football. Excellent work in the 60s and 70s, a long dry spell, and an unexpected resurgence (Grumpy Old Men) followed by an immediate flatline (Grumpy Old Men 2). And now Walter's passed on, just like Michael Robinson, et al.

It's reasonable to declare Penn State's repeat hope dead (Jim), but there's life in '05's corpse yet with Derrick Williams, Levi Brown, and the three-headed Cerberus at linebacker. If Anthony Morelli has a Flowers-for-Algernon leap forward, if the offensive line is stunningly competent, and if any sort of pass rush materializes Penn State could do it again.

If they do, though, you'll find me wandering the streets, muttering about bad frog.

Offense

Last Year: Managed to scrape by on Tony Hunt's running and Michael Robinson's moxie, but not exactly thrilling aerially. The numbers are shockingly good for anyone who's seen Penn State play over the past four years: 14th in rushing, 74th in passing, and 33rd overall in yardage. But how much do last year's numbers mean? Not much. PSU's nonconference schedule was Gopher-iffic -- South Florida, Cincinatti, and Central Michigan -- and they didn't even play two of the Big Ten's four non-putrid defenses, their own and Iowa's. The results against OSU, Michigan, and FSU:

• OSU: 17 points and 195 total yards.
• Michigan: 25 points, seven by fumble return, and 400-some yards. However, a review of the UFR from that game shows two huge plays given up when the backup safeties blew assignments and a horrendous day from Grant Mason allowing their array of screens and such to work. When not gifted yards by substandard play, they had one substantial scoring drive. That was at the end of the game when Michigan retreated into its awful prevent-a-victory shell.
• FSU: 26 points but only 16 in regulation, two from a safety. Respectable yardage numbers (351) aided by three cracks in overtime.

The jury is still out, and ornery.

Quarterback

Rating: 2. Given the level of accuracy of last year's prediction -- “Michael Robinson is not a quarterback. You can tell because he has no arms,” or something similar –- you would do well to take this section with a heavy pinch of salt, as that accusation was leveled at a quarterback I had seen play on and off for three years. No one aside from the Penn State coaching staff has seen Robinson heir Anthony Morelli throw anything other than a Hail Mary here and there.

But for the sake of completeness, this is what is known about the junior:

• He was VHT OMG shirtless as a recruit... a Pitt recruit, which he was up until mere hours before he could sign his letter of intent, at which point he switched to Penn State. Pitt was left completely in the lurch, unlike Penn State when a certain other VHT OMG shirtless quarterback picked Michigan several months before signing day. You would do well to laugh contemptuously at any Penn State fan that looks down on Chad Henne's character.
• Blessed with a big arm, he was inserted late in Penn State halves/games as a freshman to hurl balls 30-40 yards farther than Zach Mills could.
• There was low-level internet panic that asserted that Morelli was functionally retarded when it came to reading coverages and finding open receivers before last year's annus mirabilis. After PSU started winning stuff, all problems with the program precipitously disappeared. The rumor persists that Morelli is going to be working with a skeletal playbook and perhaps a Speak 'n' Spell.
• He's a pocket passer, not a scrambler. The quarterback position is not going to produce 806 rushing yards.
• He's going to have to score more points than Robinson did if Penn State hopes to approach last year's performance.
• He's being coached by Jay Paterno.

Taken together, Facts About Anthony Morelli bode unwell for Penn State's chances for a repeat. He's a raw recruit with no experience coached by the most widely reviled son this side of Jeff Bowden being handed the starting job in an offense that has to change drastically to accommodate his talents.

Er... good luck with that.

Running Backs

Rating: 3. Starter Tony Hunt is a trier who can run over the unprepared linebacker but is a long way from a gamebreaker. He's thoroughly average; even PSU's official site says he possesses a "hard-running, straight-ahead" style, though they claim a "big play burst" that has never materialized in front of my eyes unless you'd like to count a terrible angle by freshman Brandon Harrison a year ago. Penn State partisans will no doubt point to his 6.0 yards per carry as evidence of his explosiveness, but let's review: Cincinatti, Central Michigan, Northwestern, &c. This is a case in which the stats are being very naughty and fibbing with elan. Hunt is okay and no more.

Backup Austin Scott was busy morphing from a heavily-hyped recruit into a heavily-hyped total disappointment when a Hunt injury thrust him into the starting lineup in the Orange Bowl. He responded with a career day: 110 yards against the slavering Seminole defense. He then proceeded to tear his MCL during spring practice, though he should be back by the fall. In direct contrast to Hunt, Scott's problem in the past has been his soft-running, left-to-right style. He does have more speed and wiggle than Hunt and could break out this year if he maintains the directness he showed in the Orange Bowl, but given JoePa's crotchety old-manness something will probably have to happen to Hunt first.

Williams go zoom

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Rating: 3. Derrick Williams did not exactly take the Big Ten by storm before breaking his arm against Michigan, but 22 catches and 298 yards over about half a season isn't bad for a true freshman. He can also juke people out of their pants (video courtesy IBFC). Williams is on a stardom vector that only more unfortunate injuries can derail.

Behind the big star will be sophomore Deon Butler, a tiny minnow of a slot receiver who led PSU with 37 receptions, 691 yards, and nine touchdowns a year ago, and similarly diminutive Jordan Norwood. Both are generously listed at 5'10" and around 160 pounds and are effective in their way but are prone to dropped balls and have physical limitations against press coverage that opposing defenses could exploit if the offensive line does not keep Morelli clean. Watch for recruit Chris Bell to get some time. A highly touted recruit, he has more size than anyone in this unit and could fill a valuable possession receiver role if he adapts quickly.

Offensive Line

Rating: 3.

As mentioned in the Michigan State preview, this blog lacks the hubris to tell readers exactly what to expect from offensive linemen no one has ever seen play, as will be the case for four out of the five starters Penn State fields in '06. The lone returnee is a good one -- LT Levi Brown is projected as a first-round NFL draft pick easy -- but everyone else is more or less fresh off the turnip truck. Sophomore enter AQ Shipley got spot plays in every game a year ago... at defensive tackle; Junior Jon Shaw and senior Robert Price picked up starts against USF. Sophomore Gerald Cadogan got in two games. This concludes your turnip-truck mitigation.

Employing the standard heuristics (based on age, playing time, and the quality of the unit in front of you), Shipley will probably be good or better. PSU has been pumping him up for a year or so now and rather than let him sit on the bench after narrowly losing out on a starting spot at guard they decided he would be useful on the other side of the ball. Price will likely be mediocre as a senior who hasn't seen any time. Cadogan and Shaw are unknowns.

Defense

Last Year: One of the Big Ten's two truly terrifying units with Ohio State being the other: 12th in total yards, 7th against the rush, 14th in pass efficiency defense, and 10th in scoring defense. The linebackers return but it's the turnip truck again for almost everyone else.

Defensive Line

Alford

Rating: 3. Three starters including the talismanic Tamba Hali depart, but there's still a good bit of experience in the unit. Senior DT Jay Alford started every game a year ago; fellow senior Ed Johnson started no games but that was due to expulsion rather than a lack of talent. Alford quietly had an outstanding season next to Tamba Hali, racking up 11.5 TFLs and 8.5 sacks. He's not one of your Watson-esque man-mountains, but rather a penetrating 1-gap DT in the mold of Iowa's Jonathan Babineaux. Without someone who demands copious attention next to him Alford's big play numbers should drop, but the threat of his penetration will demand extra attention from the offensive line and help keep the intimidating linebackers clean. Johnson is a fireplug DT physically reminiscent of Michigan sophomore Terrance Taylor who saw a lot of playing time as a sophomore (three starts and 20 tackles) and should be above average. DT looks fine aside from depth, which is a concern.

The defensive end situation is not so rosy. Witness these inspiring words from CFN on projected starter Jim Shaw:

Shaw, the brother of offensive lineman, John Shaw, came to Penn State from Rice and made six tackles and a sack last season. Now he'll need to prove right off the bat that he can be consistent.

Ut oh. The bet here is that VHT incoming freshman Maurice Evans plays the Jamison to Shaw's Biggs. On the other side, sophomore Josh Gaines draws the herculean task of attempting to fill Hali's shoes. A middling recruit in '04 (three stars, offers from the likes of Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State), Gaines redshirted then picked up nine tackles behind Hali in '05. "Serviceable" would probably be a great outcome for him in '06, a major step down from Hali's "terrifying".

Linebackers

Rating: 5. Even though Paul Posluszny didn't deserve the Butkus Award he received (AJ Hawk hello what), he's not a player to be trifled with. Neither are fellow starters Dan Connor -- unlikely to miss about a third of the season playing Crank Yankers again -- and Tim Shaw in what's unquestionably the Big Ten's finest linebacking corps.

There might be some concern from some quarters that the new defensive linemen will not keep the linebackers clean and reduce their effectiveness. Something similar happened to Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway a year ago; stripped of Roth and Babineaux they went from all-world to all right and the Iowa defense went clunk. Penn State, however, has the luxury of returning a second-team All Big Ten DT in Alford and getting back a talented senior in Ed Johnson; Iowa was starting newborn babes -- big newborn babes, but still. With an extra year of experience and a full tour of duty from Connor this unit may well increase their production. They'll have to if anyone is to pick up Hali's slack.

Defensive Backs

Rating: 3. All four starters from a year ago are gone and question marks abound. One corner will be manned by uber-recruit Justin King, who split his time between offense and defense a year ago in an effort to prop up the sagging PSU passing game. The other is in the hands of sophomore Tony Davis, who was unknown when he committed to Penn State a couple years ago but apparently had interest from various schools around the Big Ten, including Michigan. King will probably be a star at some point, but a year after playing mostly wide receiver probably isn't the time; Davis is a mystery. There's going to be a dropoff from Zemitas and Phillips.

New safeties Donnie Johnson and Nolan McCready are journeyman seniors with little playing time. There's no shame in getting stuck behind Chris Harrell and Calvin Lowry, but it's unlikely either can replicate the performance of the departed starters from a year ago. If they're mostly staring down third-and-long after the linebackers eviscerate a running back, however, they should do fine.

Special Teams

Kickers & Coverage

Both kickers return from a year ago. Punter Jeremy Kapinos was eminently average with his 41.3 yard gross and 34.9 yard net averages, both of which placed him right around 40th in the country. Kicker Kevin Kelly was fairly good a year ago, hitting 16 of 23, but doesn't have a huge leg and occasionally clunks one -- think Rivas.

Schedule

Non-Conference: Weak. One good game @ Notre Dame, one designated MAC patsy in Akron, and two embarassments against Youngstown State and Temple.

Conference: PSU misses Iowa and Indiana; the key games will be the Big Ten opener in Columbus and their attempt to snap a seven-game, nine-year losing streak against Michigan at night in what promises to be a howling maelstrom of a Beaver Stadium.

We're Sure About

Run Defense. It probably won't be quite as intimidating with the meh safeties, but the line is full of competent-to-good run defenders and the linebackers are without peer in the midwest and perhaps the nation. Running against Penn State will be a chore.

Derrick Williams. He good.

We Have An Idea About

Pass Rush. It's going to drop off significantly without Hali, who not only drew double-teams but beat them consistently. There appears to be no one on the roster who can replace half his production.

Anthony Morelli. He will struggle early, especially with a patchy offensive line. A big arm is nice but not everything and I tend to believe the Internet undercurrents that say he's struggling with the playbook and such; Jay Paterno still hasn't coached a quarterback who could actually throw -- Robinson got by on his legs more than anything -- and the streak contues this year. Probably.

We Have No Clue About

Offensive Line. Four new starters indicates bad, but with Levi Brown occupying the all-important LT spot and surrounding counties and Shipley looking like a player they could be acceptable.

An Embarassing Prediction, No Doubt

Best Case

The defense gets enough pass rush from the linebackers to make up for Hali's absence and manages to scrape by early in the season. Morelli is intermittently brilliant but occasioinally boneheaded; Hunt lives up to Lion fans' expectations even in the face of a meh offensive line. This team still isn't a BCS contender unless a lot of things break vastly right -- beyond the reasonable expectations of this category -- but could finish 9-3 with some luck.

Worst Case

Morelli throws a ton of picks and Hunt's production is entirely reliant upon the offensive line, which is awful. Offense drops off a cliff. The defense is still good but isn't the sort to laugh in the face of terrible field position ten times a game and concedes too many points for the Keystone Kops on the other side of the ball to overcome. Only wins on the schedule are the five that come by default and maybe one more; PSU finishes 6-6.

Final Verdict

The PSU defense will still be good, but great (again) is asking too much. When you can choke out the opponent's run game consistently you are going to be one of the better defenses in the country, but I would be surprised if Penn State got much of anything from their defensive ends this year. Penn State will have to generate much of their pass rush via the blitz, which will leave them open to exploitation and drive that pass efficiency defense down, especially with a raw secondary that will spend the first half of the season finding its legs.

The offense? All signs point to a reversion to well-below-the-mean.

• The offense's effectiveness from a year ago is greatly overstated by the numbers because of the terrible defenses it played.
• There is one returning starter on the offensive line.
• There's a new quarterback.
• The same guys who drove this bus off a cliff the past few years are still around.

Hope exists in the form of Morelli's recruiting rankings, Levi Brown, and Derrick Williams, but recent evidence indicates that the only time in the last five or so years Penn State has been able to cobble together a semblance of offense has been with veterans everywhere and a pounding ground game. This offense figures to have neither.

A step back is coming, though it won't be as disastrous as the '03-'04 seasons. A large portion of the blame for those years falls squarely on the shoulders of noodle-armed Zach Mills and Robinson, who were so inept that passing was not an option for two solid years. I do think Morelli will disappoint, but he would have to implode to send the PSU offense all the way back to the bad old days.

Wins: Akron, Youngstown State, Temple, Illinois, Northwestern
Probable Wins: @ Minnesota, @ Purdue
Tossups: Michigan State, @ Wisconsin
Probable Losses: @ Ohio State, Michigan, @ Notre Dame
No Chance: None

Adding it up yields 8-4 .