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Saturday, May 07, 2005

Why am I talking about the OHL draft? Well, there's a weird dynamic going on there with potential NCAA players. OHL teams draft on a combination of talent and the likelihood of a particular player reporting. For instance, Andrew Cogliano was obviously the most talented player available in his draft year and would have gone #1 overall if he wasn't committed to Michigan. Instead he went in the third round to St. Michael's, his hometown. The chance a talented player will end up in the OHL is inversely proportional to his draft status, so it's worth seeing where potential NCAA recruits end up.

Given that interpretation of the results, Michigan fans can exhale after some tension about Tristan Llewellyn possibly defecting to the OHL's Kitchner Rangers. Llewellyn went in the fifth round to Saginaw, ending that speculation and seriously reassuring this fan. In addition, Kevin Shattenkirk went in the 11th round and Ian Cole in the 12th, strongly implying that they are headed to college. Shattenkirk and Cole are two high-end '07 defense prospects. Blake Geoffrion went undrafted.

One more defender Michigan was recruiting heavily, Nick Petrecki, was drafted in the first by the Plymouth Whalers--he's gone.

Overall, good news for Michigan. Holding on to Llewellyn was the most important thing by a wide margin and it looks like that is likely. Petrecki going to the OHL is not a huge surprise and if Llewellyn stays with his commitment Michigan will not have a huge need on defense that year anyway.