About Hart

If you hung around last night's McGuffie-centered liveblog/chat you probably came across the following hot rumors:

• Hart won't play.
• Juice Williams won't play.
• Arrelious Benn has a separated shoulder.

The latter is not a rumor, it's just true. He injured it before Iowa, reinjured it against Iowa, and continued to play with the injury. As for the former two, well... Bodog isn't accepting bets for the game any more, and other books have moved the line from Michigan -3 to anywhere from -1 to +1. That lends the rumors some credence beyond your standard internets panic.

I expect Hart will travel and dress; I would not be surprised if he was limited, or tried to go but found he could not a la a couple of 2005 games. I would also not be surprised if he was fine. Nothing surprises me!

Update: It moves. Covers.com's line history for Michigan-Illinois:

BET ED:

10/15/07 3:12:05 PM	3/-110
10/15/07 4:22:05 PM	2.5/-110
10/17/07 2:17:07 PM	2.5/-110
10/18/07 5:07:06 PM	2/-110
10/18/07 5:57:08 PM	0/-110

Sportsbook:

10/17/07 1:50:46 AM	3/-115
10/17/07 10:35:47 AM	3/-120
10/18/07 3:00:48 PM	3/-120
10/18/07 6:00:48 PM	0/-110
10/18/07 6:40:51 PM	0/-110
10/19/07 12:45:48 AM	0/-105

Belmont:

10/17/07 1:50:46 AM	3/-115
10/17/07 10:35:47 AM	3/-120
10/18/07 3:00:48 PM	3/-120
10/18/07 6:00:48 PM	0/-110
10/18/07 6:40:51 PM	0/-110
10/19/07 12:45:48 AM	0/-105

Sportsbetting:

10/17/07 1:49:57 AM	3/-115
10/17/07 10:24:57 AM	3/-120
10/18/07 2:55:02 PM	3/-120
10/18/07 5:55:01 PM	0/-110
10/18/07 6:19:58 PM	0/-110

Something happened yesterday afternoon that caused a three-point dip in the line. At most places it's rebounded to Michigan -1, but unless there's another explanation these tables strongly point to Hart's absence.

I think he's out or limited.

Update Update: Email and comments suggest that immensely powerful and all-knowing wiseguy "Dr. Bob" is responsible for the line shift:

I wanted to let you know about that something that happend yesterday to shift the line. The line moved 3 pts not because of injuries, but because of a Vegas handicapper named Dr. Bob (who, incidentally, was on ESPN a couple of days ago). He has BOATLOADS of big-money clients, and he releases his plays on Thursday. Sportsbooks were immediately flooded with money on Illinois and had to drop the line down to a pick'em so as to get more Michigan money. So, while the guys you mentioned could be out, that's not the reason for this line movement. So, I wouldn't count on any of those injuries quite yet.

So... I don't know. If you can stand the vertigo, here's the ESPN segment. Take it FWIW.