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What happened today: I was fingered by Blogger's spambots and had to wait it out for someone to stop by, note that spammers are unlikely to have "suck my balls, blogger" prominently displayed at the top of the blog, and give me the go-ahead to post again. They have done so. A now-dated MSU post is directly below this one.

By way of apology, a Sam McGuffie highlight reel that's wicked sweet (music NSFW):



That hurdle thing was less a brilliant improvisation than a regular part of the McGuffie arsenal.

Roast Beast!

2/27/2006 - Michigan 67-56 Michigan State - 20-10, 8-7

I will admit that this basketball grinch's heart grew three sizes when Brent Petway threw down a half-court alley-oop from Jerrett Smith midway through the second half yesterday. Even my ambivalence about the possibility of another NCAA near-miss leading to an extension of the Amaker era eroded with every shot of a white-clad slackjaw cheering for Michigan State and every non-turnover possession. It's no fun thinking big picture in the throes of actual sporting competition, and I hereby suspend any and all conflicted musings until the season ends.

Bullets:

• Credit where it's due to Amaker: the switch to Smith as the starting point guard seems to be working. Though his final numbers weren't stunning -- 8 point, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 turnover -- they were efficient. His defense on the Spartan guards was surprisingly competent.
• Second positive adjustment: bringing Jevohn Shepard off the bench to play BRJ/Tayshaun Prince on Drew Neitzel. It's hard to tell how much Neitzel's illness affected his play since he could hardly get a shot off unless it was an awful and infuriatingly accurate three-pointer. Shepard's still an offensive nothing, but unfortunately neither Lester Abram or Ron Coleman has much on him at this point.
  
• Michigan's persistent inability to finish at the rim was going to be the thing I harped on -- turnovers being shockingly absent -- should Michigan have blown the game. Most flagrant was Brent Petway's decision to spin into the lane and throw up a missed hook when if he had gone baseline he would have had a thunderous dunk. YOU'RE BRENT PETWAY! You jump over things. That's your thing. No with the skill. Yes with the ARRRRRGH DUNK.
• The second half pick-and-roll perfectly executed by Jerrett Smith, Brent Petway, and Courtney Sims: most shocking basket of the Amaker era?
• We are still a major longshot to make the tournament. A win over OSU is required and improbable, and then we can't screw it up in the Big Ten tournament.
• The disappearance of Lester Abram is on a par with Amelia Earhart.
• I really hate that Bill Simmons beat me to "Drew Neitzel is dead ringer for a leukemia patient."
  

Given the fate of Michigan basketball under the watchful eye of an MGo-liveblog, we're going to skip it. But there might be an open thread or something. We're very likely to lose, but let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

Unverified Voracity Zoom

Troy Woolfolk is fast. The incoming cornerback just got done owning the 100 meters at a Texas meet:

100 — 1, Troy Woolfolk, Dulles 10.28; 2, Alvin Johnson, Lamar 10.65; 3, Cordell Riggings, Humble 10.7.

There is probably some wind-based/hand-timed mitigating factor in that number, otherwise that's a staggering time. In any case, he gap between Woolfolk and second place is giant. Hopefully he can change directions. Also of note is the 200:

200 — 1, Damien Clestine, Beaumont Ozen 21.18; 2, Darryl Stonum, Dulles 21.38; 3, John Durand, Ball 22.25.

Stonum is a wide receiver for Dulles; we lead for his services.

Oh snap. Friday's post about the CHL and USHL getting ready to throw down? Yeah...

Both NCAA schools and CHL teams claim that they can provide a university degree while chasing the dream of the NHL. The numbers state otherwise.

On a typical NCAA roster of 28, .5 players make it to the NHL, 23.5 graduate from university, and 4 do not graduate from university.

On a typical CHL roster of 25, 1 player makes it to the NHL, 4 obtain a university degree and 20 do not obtain a university degree.

In the contest to graduate players from university the NCAA wins 23.5 to CHL 4.

The question then becomes why does the CHL graduate only 16% of its player base from university while the NCAA's number is at 84%?

...says the USHL's official website(!), which then proceeds to enumerate the reasons why the CHL's much-lauded education packages hardly ever get used. I'm willing to be there's some data massaging going on there, but you can't bridge a gap that wide -- or even approach it -- just by rearranging the data. Junior advocates make an effort in the comments of this post, if you're interested in the other side.

Wonk on Michigan, noting the eerie consistency of the Wolverines under Amaker:

The Michigan theory of chaotic status quo. All Michigan events and decisions sum to zero and perpetuate the status quo in Ann Arbor. Even seemingly diametrically opposed actions work in concert to reproduce the past. (How Hegelian!)

Disagreement: the Udoh-Sims switch is posited as a defensive substitution that gets a couple shot-blockers in the game at the same time, but does Udoh's advantage in block percentage (6.4% for Sims, a staggering 11.2% for Udoh) sufficient to offset his deficit in defensive rebounding (20% for Sims, 13% for Udoh)? Udoh, like many a jumping-jack freshman (or a jumping-jack senior coughpetwaycough), tries to block everything. The corresponding void on the block leads to offensive rebounds and contributes to Michigan's crappy defensive rebounding.

Sims' removal from the starting lineup has to be explained in some other way.

About tonight. Michigan has an opportunity over the next two games to play themselves into the tournament... maybe. Drew Neitzel -- the entirety of Michigan State's offense -- has come down with the flu. He'll play tonight, but how effective he is remains to be seen. It might not mean much: this is glacially-paced college basketball, after all. Then the 14-1 but hideously-overrated Buckeyes come to Crisler. While Michigan's chances in that game aren't good, Ohio State is also not the juggernaut their record implies.

(Buckeye Commentary:

That UCLA garnered a few first place votes is not surprising but what's unexpected is the plethora, the absolute glut of talk today castigating Ohio State's win. Even the Big Ten Wonk calls us the "ugliest 14-1 team". What gives?

This type of criticism would be tolerable if vanity had any place in college basketball. Or college football? We know that well do we not after our 2002 National Championship? So, I'm still struggling why it matters that a team doesn't win pretty enough. Naturally, I'm struggling because there really isn't any answer other than it doesn't matter.

This is inaccurate. As John Hollinger pointed out in his latest ESPN blog entry, in which he defends his power ratings' placement of the Spurs, not the Mavs or Suns, #1:

...as I've been trying to beat into people's heads over and over again, point differential is a better indicator of future success than won-loss record. In other words, if you were trying to pick a game between the Mavs and Spurs tomorrow, you'd be better off ignoring the standings and looking just at point differential.

Ohio State's point differential is the best in the Big Ten (or at least their efficiency margin is, and that's a more accurate stat anyway), but it doesn't compare to Illinois 04-05, the last Big Ten team to be #1 at this late date in the season, especially since this year's edition of the Big Ten isn't good. Ohio State is an ugly team that gets in a lot of ugly games and once they're past the sacrificial #16 seed they could go out the window at any time.

Obvious disclaimer: Thad Matta could outrecruit Tommy Amaker in a KKK uniform, and his coaching is at least all right. I would swap basketball programs in a second. Etc.)

Anyway: Michigan could sneak its way into the tournament with a sweep in its final two games. I'm conflicted about this. It would obviously be nice to make the tournament, but managing to win a couple games like this wouldn't sufficiently improve my opinion of Amaker to make his inevitable retention palatable. I have seen six years of confused "motion" offenses, four years of Brent Petway waiting to throw the ball to some guard who is always cutting away from the basket and always well guarded. I have seen Amaker's often bizarre recruiting. I have seen too many turtlenecks. And I say the chances Amaker can turn the Michigan program into a consistent top 25 team are very, very low no matter the outcome of these next two games.

Etc.: Amani Toomer's divorce may well end up history's ugliest; SI does their Road Trip feature on Michigan; David Harris article; Steve Kampfer article. SMQB demolishes Dennis Dodd for taking up the cause of poor, blackballed Gary Barnett.

Recruiting Board Updated

Update 2/26: Added NJ S Brandon Smith, TN WR Rodriguez Wilks, IL OL Graham Pocic, CA OL Vaugn Dotsy, and FL LB Nigel Bradham. Linked to Mike Zordich interview. Fixed "illcit" typo that had been there for two years. Added VA LB Marcus Dowtin, GA DT Omar Hunter, and MI CB Troy Tidwell, MN WR Michael Floyd, OH WR Nate Wilburn-Ogletree. Linked to Jon Major interview. Added KY DE Dexter Heyman, KY DT Brandon Newman, CT DT Massengo Kabongo.

Downgraded NC S Robert Blanton from green to yellow.

Editorial Opinion: Ah, the days when recruiting is a constantly expanding set of possibilities. A ton of guys go on the board and none come off. Three Southern defensive linemen are of particular note:

GA DT Omar Hunter is likely to be one of the top three prospects in the state. He's been inspiring paeans since his sophomore year. He's had high-profile SEC offers for six months. The kicker:

Omar Hunter: Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Maryland, South Carolina, Duke and Ole Miss have offered. Attended UF Junior Day. He is from NJ and favors Michigan. If offered he said he would likely commit. Auburn is likely second.

No doubt the Michigan coaches are scrambling for tape as we speak. [A note on that site: it's a blog (dodgy), but one of a few Florida ones officially hosted at their Scout site (less dodgy). Given the explosion of Hunter chatter on Michigan message boards, the bolded assertion is not taken from the ether.]

KY DT Brandon Newman and KY DE Dexter Heyman both enter the board with nice green smileys. Both are saying nice things about Michigan at the moment, albeit things of the sort that are clearly less argh-offer-now than Hunter's seeming eagerness to drop. Heyman's quote: "if I had a leader, it would be Michigan." So there you go. Heyman's a top-100-ish defensive end and should be getting an offer at some point. Newman is probably a 3.5 star type who may not get an offer right away if Michigan feels good about Hunter and a couple other guys. With a small class and a lot of young DTs Michigan will probably go light at the position this year.

The rest of the new guys are just names at this point. Dotsy, probably one of the best guard prospects in the 2008 class, goes to St. Bonaventure with Michael Williams and 2008's #1 RB, Darrell Scott.

Board here.

CHL, NCAA: Let's Get It On

Hockey down the road. The USHL profiles a couple of '91 recruits. One is future NTDPer David Valek, who is either a Czech dual citizen...

David came to Detroit Honeybaked this year via the Czech Republic, where he has played the past few seasons. The last two years he has played in a town called Tinec, and in both years he played for two teams - a younger development team and the older main team in his town.

...or didn't get the memo that Prague is so 1995. Valek's currently at Detroit Honeybaked and has Michigan season tickets. As a '91, he would come in with the 2009 class. But that's only of provincial interest.

The larger issue is raised by the other recruit profiled. He doesn't have any particular Michigan connections; he does have an interesting opinion or two on the OHL-NCAA tug of war:

Lowry has a bit of knowledge of college hockey, and feels that living in the major junior hockey hotbed of Kitchener/Waterloo that college hockey falls short in promoting their game to kids in Ontario, Canada. "I think I have gotten one thing from a college and it was a survey," Lowry said. "I have gotten 5 or 6 cover letters from OHL teams and OHL Central Scouting. As well, my team had a seminar with the OHL." With that said, he is well aware of the opportunity to play in the NCAA. When asked about his knowledge of college hockey, Lowry stated, "at Prospects a few years ago I went to a great seminar about NCAA hockey. They explained it to us, and I know it is good hockey for sure." When asked what college hockey needs to do to get the word out more, Lowry said, "I think they need to open up the rules a bit, let college coaches contact kids earlier."

Lowry's proposed rule change is on the table according to this Waterloo, Ontario newspaper article on the OHL's push towards ever-younger contact with youth hockey players:

This April, the NCAA will consider changing its rules to allow schools to contact players in their Grade 10 years once a month.

The only reason for this rule change is the NCAA's ongoing war with the CHL; the primary reason for this OHL initiative is the ascension of the USHL, which attained "Tier I" status from USA Hockey in 2002 by increasing its financial commitments to its players. The ensuing rush of talented players planning on playing in college gutted the NAHL, its domestic college-feeder competitor, and created a league nearly on a par with anything the CHL can offer. Current Notre Dame head coach Jeff Jackson, who left LSSU for the OHL years back:

Notre Dame's Jackson, who also coached in the Ontario Hockey League, believes the USHL's top teams would be competitive if they moved to the OHL.

That implies that the league as a whole is still a step or two behind the CHL but the difference is neglible enough for the OHL to start a series of "Elite U-16" camps that seem an obvious attempt to win mindshare. You can check the OHL's breathless press release or the above-mentioned Waterloo article, which features a couple of partisans going "did too/did not" for its length. The series of events (USHL gets big, USHL starts raking in recruits who might otherwise be CHL all the way, OHL starts reaching out to younger kids, filling their heads with LIES LIES LIES their opinion about the college game) and Occam's razor suggests that "did too" is the right answer.

A world-class junior league that maintains players' collegiate eligibility removes a major selling point the OHL had over college hockey by providing elite players a place to go for the last couple years before they hit campus. USA Today had an extensive article on the league a couple weeks ago with quotes from Tristin Llewellyn:

Clearly, the USHL players have pride in their league. "Actually I think this league is just as good, if not better, than most (Canadian) Major Junior," Tri-City player Tristin Llewellyn says.

Llewellyn says the USHL "has to be the fastest league in North America." He says when he trains with OHL players or in Calgary with Western Hockey League players, what those players see as "their fastest speed seems average to me."

Llewellyn will be suiting up at Yost this fall.

(Via WCH and Marc Foster.)

New Shirts!

1) Sometime last year I got a cease & desist from the Collegiate Licensing Corporation claiming an exclusive trademark on "Notre Dame." As a result, the "Notre Dame: returning to glory since 1993" shirts got pulled. They are now collectors items worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Anyway, here's a new version that expresses my disdain for the state of North Dakota:



Damn North Dakotans and their clovers!

2) We're going to Wisconsin this year for what should be a huge Big Ten game. Wisconsin returns a ton of starters and is coming off a 12-1 year. But we're Michigan. Let 'em know:



(For anyone deeply confused by this reference, read this. Or this. Or this.)

3) Self-explanatory.



Visit MGoStore.

Coming Or Going: West/North-ish

(Named after the (apparently) famous Price Is Right game. Ask Orson.)

Hello! More exploration of the sketchy ethics of college football recruiting. Orson Swindle and I gathered the last six years of classes for every BCS team and found average-sized recruiting classes for each team. For comparison's sake, a team with 100% retention that never redshirts or recruits JUCOs or transfers should average 21.25 scholarships a year. A team with a 100% retention rate that redshirts everyone but still avoids JUCOs and transfers should average 17. If you figure about half of all freshmen redshirt (figure pulled directly from rear), then 100% retention means a class of slightly over 19 kids.

Disclaimers go here: Numbers are from Rivals. Scout has different numbers that are on average a little bit smaller. 100% retention is impossible and there are many completely kosher reasons for kids to leave a college football program before their eligibility expires. JUCOs and transfers were not accounted for in these numbers and obviously have a distorting effect (though transfers don't even show up in the rivals DB, so the net effect of a transfer to your school is to make your school look less like an Indonesian ferryman shoving people off the boat into alligator-infested waters.)

I've got the Big Ten, Pac-10, and Big 12. Check EDSBS around noonish for the ACC, Big East, and (drumroll...) SEC.

Big 12	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	Average
Iowa State	27	26	29	27	30	25	27.3
Kansas State	30	17	26	26	30	32	26.8
Texas Tech	24	25	26	21	34	26	26.0
Oklahoma State	28	31	19	21	29	23	25.2
Colorado	31	25	20	25	22	27	25.0
Missouri	23	23	25	23	25	27	24.3
Baylor	25	22	20	22	29	27	24.2
Kansas	22	27	21	28	25	22	24.2
Texas A&M	23	24	28	25	23	18	23.5
Oklahoma	24	24	18	27	28	20	23.5
Nebraska	21	19	20	32	22	27	23.5
Texas	28	18	20	15	25	24	21.7
Total Average							24.6

Our Indonesian Ferryman for the Big 12: Iowa State. An unsurprising second and third are Kansas State, Texas Tech, and their insatiable lust for JUCO blood.

And the Big 12 Mr. Chips Award For Academic Integrity goes to big, bad Texas -- though their number would be but middling in the Big Ten.

Pac 10	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	Average
Oregon State	20	22	36	30	33	35	29.3
Oregon	24	23	30	24	22	29	25.3
Arizona	29	26	29	26	25	16	25.2
Washington St.	28	18	27	21	24	26	24.0
Arizona St.	29	22	22	21	24	23	23.5
Cal	21	28	19	24	20	25	22.8
Washington	21	27	23	13	22	27	22.2
USC	22	28	19	19	26	18	22.0
UCLA	26	19	26	21	22	10	20.7
Stanford	16	26	12	17	18	19	18.0
Total Average							23.3

Yea, verily the Pac-10 is a conference of extremes.

Our Indonesian Ferryman for the Pac 10 is Oregon State with a staggering 29 scholarships handed out per class and a whopping 134 recruits over the past four years. Oregon State is the national Indonesian Ferryman and the sketchiest program in all the land.

Meanwhile, Stanford is puttering along at 18 scholarships per year. They win the Mr. Chips Award For Academic Integrity for the Pac-10 and the nation.

Big Ten	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	Average
Michigan State	21	21	31	27	28	21	24.8
Purdue	27	26	28	21	27	18	24.5
Minnesota	27	27	24	20	22	22	23.7
Illinois	23	27	24	20	27	21	23.7
Indiana	21	25	26	25	21	19	22.8
Wisconsin	25	22	23	22	23	17	22.0
Iowa	22	22	21	23	21	22	21.8
Michigan	21	17	22	23	19	20	20.3
Penn State	22	11	25	19	24	21	20.3
Ohio State	24	16	24	18	20	15	19.5
Northwestern	22	22	15	20	17	19	19.2
Total Average							22.1

Our Indonesian Ferryman for the Big Ten: Michigan State. To be fair to the Spartans, their total would be good for but fourth in the Pac-10 and a piddling sixth in the Big 12.

Raise your hand if you thought Northwestern would win the Mr. Chips Award for the Big Ten. That's all of you, good. Now raise your hand if you thought Ohio State would come in second. Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Ohio State is increasingly irritating: first they go and win against us all the time, reducing my ability to make fun of them to critically low levels, then they go and stop getting in trouble altogether -- a third string kicker selling weed just doesn't cut it, even if his last name is a popular synonym for semen. What's a blogger to do?

And there's one relevant team floating out there not in any conference...

That Other Team	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	Average
Notre Dame	18	21	16	15	28	18	19.3

To its credit, Notre Dame retains like a mother. Either that or Willingham was so bad at recruiting they left large numbers of scholarships open.

EDSBS will have has the ACC, Big East, and SEC up... how do they stack up? Stay tuned! Spay or neuter your dogs and such!

Unverified Voracity Doesn't Know

There is a nasty rumor circulating the Michigan internets that three players, two of them potential starters, are in some degree of trouble. The rumor is multiply-sourced and probably true, IMO, but the assertion that all three are booted from the team is at the very least premature. Varsity Blue chips in with what they can:

Rumors have been perpetuated on the internet (including those damn bloggers -ed.*) that three players, whose names I will not drag through the mud until this rumor has been in some way substantiated, have been caught with drugs and kicked off the team. Per Tom Beaver [GBW poohbah -ed], at least the aspect of getting removed from the team is false, and he also stated unequivocally that the law is NOT involved.

He also offers some circumstantial evidence of his own that indicates anyone panicked should calm down a bit; hit up Varsity Blue's post for that additional bit of reassurance.

In sum: three guys probably in trouble but of the stairs-running variety. A complicating factor: a couple of the accused have been in trouble before and may be running out of strikes. (Any SEC fans wishing to jump down my throat about this would be advised to look into whether their favorite program conducts off-season random drug tests for recreational substances first.)

Mel Kiper is not a huge fan of Alan Branch. Detroit News article on instate draft prospects:

Branch has enormous physical ability, very athletic with tremendous physical prowess," the ESPN analyst said Wednesday during a teleconference. "I'd say he'd probably go top 10 to 12, but I have him right now at 18, 19, 20."

The knock on Branch, a 6-foot-5, 330-pound defensive tackle, is his lack of production, Kiper said.

"He should be a dominant player but was not on a consistent basis (in college)," Kiper said. "He probably needed another year at Michigan, in terms of production, because he was not a guy that gave you results in terms of tackles and sacks that you thought were possible.

"He's got a chance to be a heck of a player. The potential is there."

This is silliness on a par with those MaxwellPundit voters who downgraded Reggie Nelson because he only made one tackle in the MNC game. (How many tackles was Nelson, a deep free safety, supposed to make when Ohio State completed four passes?) Branch is a defensive tackle and to measure his impact on the game in terms of numbers is inherently shallow.

Kiper on Hall:

On cornerback Leon Hall (5-11, 193) -- "If you asked me where he'd go in September, October, November, I'd probably have said top 10. What hurt him a little was the Ohio State game and then the Rose Bowl, where he was beaten deep, and his recovery speed was in question. The combines and workouts overall are important for him. I think he's a mid-first-rounder right now."

No problems with that. Throughout the year it seemed odd that Leon Hall was being talked about like a top-ten pick and a Woodson-Law type corner. Don't get me wrong: Leon was a very good collegiate corner. But he never had that lockdown ability you expect from a guy with that level of hype. As far as corners of the last decade or so go, the list is like this:

• Woodson
• Enormous, Weis-sized gap.
• Law
• Similarly sized gap.
• Hall, Jackson
• Lesueur

I think I'll have something more on this Delaney thing soon. I mean, lord knows I don't want to. It's been my longstanding opinion that the top five conferences are all fairly equal -- though if Miami and FSU don't pull out of their tailspins, the ACC isn't -- and arguing about which conference is incrementally better this year is a stupid and boring conversation to have. But Delaney and the Big Ten have been getting hammered ever since OSU didn't show up for the MNC game (and, granted, Michigan didn't show up for the Rose Bowl) by people who think the result of whatever the last game was is the way all future contests will go forever and ever.

A couple quick things, though. BGS posts something called "Big Tenvy" that has a nice table of the 19 recruits offered by both Big Ten and SEC schools this year, notes that 15 of them went to SEC schools, and claims that this effectively disproves the infamous Delaney line about not having six top-ten classes because of the modicum of scruples the Big Ten chooses to maintain or whatever. (<-- Delaney's words paraphrased and not, at this time, an expression of personal opinion.) Leaving aside the obvious sample size problems, a subset of players that have been offered by both sets of schools implies that their academics obviously met the standards of both conferences and proves nothing about a hypothetical gray area in which one says OK! and the other NO WAI. But what really drew my ire was the Larry Grant example, which is so dumb it featured heavily in a Matt Hayes article. General rule of thumb: if Matt Hayes is using something, run away. BGS excerpt:

Originally from Georgia, Grant selected Florida but could not qualify academically. After completing some make-up work he then enrolled at, you guessed it, Ohio State. Tell me again which conference had the higher standards?

Excerpt from BGS-linked article:

Although Grant landed at OSU, that was not his original destination. A few months ago, he was committed to Florida and all but had his bags packed for Gainesville. Originally from Norcross, Ga., an Atlanta suburb, Grant intended to play in the Southeastern Conference.

Then came the revelation that he had not passed a math course that the SEC requires of all junior-college transfers. Florida couldn’t take him. He did the makeup work in January, but by then he was a free agent.

The implication of this sentence is that by the time Grant committed to OSU, he was eligible to play anywhere in the SEC. Second excerpt:

Tressel is not a fan of junior-college transfers, primarily because they can be in the program three years at the most. In his five years at OSU, he had not signed any, although he had inherited two, receiver Chris Vance and linebacker Jack Tucker.

Criticizing Ohio State and the Big Ten for taking an SEC-eligible Larry Grant when he's the only JUCO Ohio State has taken in five (now six) years of recruiting is something only Matt Hayes could come up with, and BGS should be embarrassed that they resorted to it.

Meanwhile, over at EDSBS Orson takes a look at the 2002 Michigan and Florida classes and checks them for relative flameouts. There are a lot of ways a player can fail to serve out their eligibility, and only some are ethically dubious. A rough division:

THAT'S LIFE

• Injury.
• Playing-time-related transfer.
• Playing-time related departure from team -- ie: buried so far on the bench the only chance you'd have to play is if the walkons all tear their ACLs. Most schools retain the option to cut guys after their fourth year.
  
• NFL departure (within reason: if you aren't going on the first day that's sketchy)

SKETCHY IN QUANTITY

• Guys who never qualify.
• Academic washouts.
• Showing your manhood to coeds and such
• Lawrence Phillips disease.

Of Michigan's 21 recruits (Disimone only shows 20, counting Quinton McCoy against 2003, but he first signed a LOI in '02 so it's better to file him here for purposes of this discussion), 12 completed their eligibility. Six were "That's life" departures: Rembert and Guiterrez left so they could play. Kolodziej and Berishaj left because of injuries (2002 was a bad year to be an OL with a last name ending in "J"). Kevin Murphy and Jacob Stewart were not invited back for fifth years because they weren't going to see the field. Only three fall in the sketch category: Greg Cooper, who didn't qualify, prepped, and went to State, Larry Harrison, who loved running around town without pants on, and McCoy, who was an academic washout.

Orson's analysis of Florida's 2002 class, which is similarly sized, shows 13 guys (Orson actually shortchanges UF by undercounting here) who finished their eligibility or left early for the draft. One guy was injured, and another was unambiguously sketchy. The remainder:

Transfers:

Patrick Dosh: Became a pirate at ECU. Yarr for him.

McKenzie Pierre: Robbed Florida fans of an exceptional name by transferring after ‘04.

Jimtavis Walker: Became a cabbie-mugging Beaver before flunking out completely.

Guys who fell off the face of the earth.

Todd Bunce. D-lineman who fell into Federlineville.

Gavin Dickey: Fleet qb who opted to play British women’s sport instead of football.

Ryan Carter, OL: Running guns in Cote d’Ivoire, for all we know.

Placing these guys into one big "didn't finish" category leaves something to be desired. In Michigan terms, there are Matt Gutierrez transfers and Max Martin transfers. The latter are sketchy. We can safely file Walker into "sketchy" and Dickey into "not" (baseball, for those having a hard time translating), the circumstances of the other two transfers and the mysterious disappearances of Carter and Bunce are ambiguous. So Michigan has 18 not sketchy, 3 sketchy; Florida 15 not sketchy, 2 sketchy, and 4 don't knows. Still fairly even. Orson's promised a look at Tennessee, who by dint of sheer numbers can't possibly maintain that sort of good citizenship record.

Anyway: this debate seems to be only starting and since it's the offseason you'll no doubt end up with as much of it as you care to absorb.

Etc: Rivals previews the Michigan baseball team, which should be pretty good for northerners; Stadium & Main on Appalachian State and future scheduling.

Penn State Hates Us

I posted this at the Fanhouse but it demands distribution everywhere and anywhere I control. A brief setup: this guy really, really likes Penn State (and Notre Dame). He's kind of hammered. He's watching the 2005 Michigan-Penn State game. Hilarity ensues. (First part's a little slow, but stay with it.)

2007 Recruiting: Recap, Wrap, Opinions

Position by position grades:

• QB: A+. Obviously.
• FB: A. Not a hugely important position but Vince Helmuth is a highly regarded prospect there. Ready and willing to do the gruntwork of the position.
• RB: C. Avery Horn is fast but Michigan struck out on some more heavily promoted kids.
• WR: A. Don't believe the lack of hype about Junior Hemingway.
• TE: B+. Webb is a boom-or-bust type, Watson a guy who will probably play but be uninspiring..
• OL: D. Whiff places heavy pressure on the class of 2008.
• DL: B-. Didn't need much. Van Bergen is highly regarded, Sagesse a wild card. If you want to fit Slocum in this category, then it's a good haul.
  
• LB: C. Panter was an important recruit for right now. The other two are meh, IMO.
• DB: B+. Got the blue-chipper they needed and a couple additional players, but the depth is lacking.

Overall? B+. There are some disappointing aspects to the class, but if you had told me on Signing Day I could draft one player in the country I would have taken Mallett. If the scuttlebutt on the Warren/Johnson trade is correct and Warren is more likely to help right now, I think I'd rather have Warren for a secondary that has no reliable corners at the moment. Michigan also loaded up on receivers/TEs.

OTOH, only two offensive linemen, one of them a center-only type because of his size and the other a sleeper who Michigan snatched from MAC schools, is the worst Michigan OL class in the Lemming era of recruiting (ie, since I've been paying attention). The two non-JUCO linebackers are both projects. Past Warren there are a couple of decent safeties who are unlikely to be stars and then Sears/Richards-type projects at corner. Michigan really needed a second blue-chippah at corner they did not get. There's a lot wrong with the class, but the slam dunk at the most important position on the field and the biggest need for Michigan going in makes up for almost all of it.

Panic! About Instate Recruits: Michigan only flagged down two of Michigan's top 15 prospects. But it's not that bad:

Ryan VanBergen and Martell Webb. Commits.

Justin Siller, Keith Nichol, and Steven Threet. Quarterbacks who are not named "Mallett." Michigan didn't pursue any of them.

Mark Dell, Quincy Landingham, Derek Knight. Michigan was clearly focused on other players from the start. For whatever reason, they never showed any interest.

Taurian Washington. Mutual flirting went on, but he apparently lost his scholarship offer when James Rogers outperformed him at camp and committed. No real loss; Michigan picked up two higher-rated receivers in the class.

Darris Sawtelle. Tennessee legacy.

Cedric Everson. Circus freak who claimed offers from every program in the country, then committed to Georgia Tech. GT later pulled his offer. He committed to State, then decommitted on Signing Day to Iowa. Michigan never pursued him, and even though he may be able to run fast Michigan doesn't have to put up with radioactive nuts like him.

Ronald Johnson, Dionte Allen, Joseph Barksdale, Chris Colasanti. Whiffs on players Michigan wanted. Barksdale was kind of a flake and Colasanti came from a school Michigan does terribly at (Brother Rice). He was set on PSU from the very beginning. Blaming Michigan for not getting him is like blaming Pitt for not getting Toney Clemons. Sometimes kids just like a particular school that is not the local one.

No excuses for Johnson and Allen, but they are but two players.

So... there were six players in the top 15 Michigan went after with some expectation of getting. (Can hardly blame them for Sawtelle.) They got two and there were extenuating circumstances why they didn't do better than that. Is that great? No. But it's certainly not the disaster it was made out to be by spreaders of FUD. I'd be more concerned if Michigan was losing recruits to Notre Dame and Michigan State, teams who can apply a consistent presence in the region. (OSU tapping into the state is kind of irritating.)

General impressions of the 2008 landscape: The Midwest seems much stronger than it was a year ago. Pennsylvania has a lot of high-end prospects. Ohio is back to its normal level. Michigan has a second consecutive good year, though one that's a bit of a step back from 2007.

Michigan's needs are primarily at offensive line, defensive back, and tailback. They've also offered a ton of linebackers already (the Midwest is overflowing with them). Names to watch out for:

• CA RB Darrell Scott. Early favorite for this year's #1 back, he's transferring to freshman-to-be Michael Williams' school. With USC having locked up last year's #1 and #2 RBs, plus four others in the past couple years, he's more liabile to escape Trojan clutches than most California recruits. Ron English and an attractive depth chart -- the only significant competion appears to be Brandon Minor -- should have us in the running.
• MI RB Jonas Gray. From Detroit Country Day and has publicly stated he was big into Notre Dame, but may be backing off that for similar depth chart reasons: ND picked up Robert Hughes and Armando Allen in the last class.
• TX RB Sam McGuffie. McGuffie's the hurdling whiteboy as seen on Deadspin and every social video site you care to name. His father's from Michigan and there is thorough mutual interest between the two sides.
• PA WR Jonathan Baldwin. Ty Law's cousin, the 6'6" Baldwin is one of the top five prospects in a good class of Pennsylvania prospects. Michigan has an early lead but it's tentative.
• TX WR Daryl Stonum. A former teammate of Troy Woolfolk and Brandon Herron, he's been very vocal about Michigan's lead for his services. Ranked around #11 in Texas, Stonum will probably be at the tail end of top 100 lists or just off them.
• MI OT Dan O'Neill. A solid-four star type, O'Neill is expected to commit sooner or later.
• TX OT JB Shugarts. He's leaving the state, is friends with McGuffie, and has been up to Michigan. Will have to fight off OSU, UF, LSU, etc, but a decent shot.
• PA LBs Christian Wilson, Shayne Hale, and Andrew Sweat all have Michigan in the top group of teams they're listing. OSU will be a competitor for all three.
• CA DBs Robert Golden and Brandon Leslie. From Fresno Edison, the former home of Johnny Sears. Michigan's recruiting both. Golden has repeatedly said that Arizona(!?) leads for his services

There are more -- check the board -- if you're interested.

A successful 2008 class: Two running backs, one of them highly rated. A couple nice receiving targets. Three offensive tackles, two highly rated, and three interior linemen. A good defensive end, two highly rated linebackers, Boubacar Cissoko and two more corners. Add in a Mallett caddy, a defensive tackle, and a safety, and it's around 18 guys from our current starting point of 13.

Unverified Voracity Snaps Back

A quick look at Pennsylvania's top ten next year shows Michigan in like whoah. Though QB Terrelle Pryor and DT/OL Lucas Nix are long shots, Michigan is in on eight of the top ten according to the plugged-in Chris Dokish. Offers are out to the top six, and #10. #7 is CB Jared Holley, a guy who will get offered sooner or later.

The LA Times has an epic article on Jack Johnson.

All Hail English. Rivals declared him the Big Ten's best recruiter after his Lazarus job with Donovan Warren. Also on the list is Scot Loeffler.

Interesting bit from the Sports Economist on college basketball recruiting, which anyone will tell you is sleazy as all git out. It references this WaPo article on AAU teams, which increasingly structure themselves as non-profits and accept tax-deductible "donations" from boosters:

"You say, 'Let's talk,' " the college coach said. "You keep it going as long as you can until you can figure out a way around it or until you decide to donate maybe less than what they want just to stay in the equation. As soon as you say, 'No,' you are out. You have to do what you have to do to get the player."

Further evidence that Sonny Vaccaro should be shot into the sun:

Sonny Vaccaro, a prominent shoe company representative who helped create the current youth summer basketball league system nearly two decades ago, confirmed that the practice is popular, calling it "brilliant." "It is a unique, newer and cleaner way of getting money to people who have players who may or may not end up at your school," said Vaccaro, who now works for Reebok.

You can feel the slime oozing off the screen. Do not be alarmed. The Sports Economist makes a good point of its own:

it also is interesting evidence supporting the economic prediction that changing the rules about who gets the money doesn't change anything about whether or not it gets collected by somebody. I always find it interesting that people supporting the NCAA amateur requirement would rather see the money go to recipients like these "talent collectors." But that's just me.

OH SNAP. Chicago Tribune curmudgeon Sam Smith on blogs:

How is it I can work for decades developing contacts around the NBA and traveling regularly around the NBA and talking with the decision makers and some guy in his basement in his underwear is writing something that has credibility? As close as I can figure, these bloggers are the electronic version of the neighborhood tavern. You used to go in and hear people wailing about sports or politics and offering opinions on all the major issues. We did our man in the street interviews when such issues came up. Now, these people we used to ask for opinion started these blogs and are supposed to be experts. How can that be? I never see any of them, I never hear the coaches and general managers and players I talk to saying they talked to them. So where do they get their information?

People often doubt the traditional media, but we are out asking questions, developing sources of information and interacting with the participants. What are these bloggers doing? I'm fortunate on some level to be getting close to retirement because if these blogs are credible sources of information, there's no point in spending all the time on the road that I do.

Smith invokes MSM Media Fallacy #6 here: "blogs are trying to be just like newspapers because newspapering is the only thing that is valuable," but whatever. Then Smith wrote an article on the upcoming NBA trade deadline that featured not one but two quotes gathered by bloggers and failed to provide attribution. One of the liftees was Dan Steinberg of the DC Sports Bog, who noticed and... well... OH SNAP.

Etc.: Carty on potential Big Ten scheduling changes; Statistically Speaking takes a look at the Big Ten through the lens of some interesting statistical measures.

The Vivisected Pairwise

Many, many thanks to Sioux Sports for their handy PWR/RPI widgets. This post would not be possible without them.

So: we've established that a Western split is probably good enough to keep them a TUC. Does it matter? A comparison-by-comparison look at the PWR.

WINNING COMPARISONS

(ie: Comparisons Michigan wins right now. Prefer all of these to be "Etched In Stone.)

Tossups

• Denver. We own COP, but RPI is really really close and TUC is ridiculously close.
• Michigan State. H2H is tied. We have a significant COP edge that could go away since we're in the same conference. TUC is very close, RPI is very close.
• North Dakota. We win COP, but TUC and RPI are very, very close. NoDak's final four games are against TUCs, so there's a lot of wiggle here.

Solid

• Colorado College. We own COP and have a medium-sized RPI edge. TUC could go either way but as long as we're ahead of them in RPI we'll take the comparison.
• Cornell. No COP, they're well behind in RPI and have an ugly TUC record.
• Dartmouth. See "Cornell".
• St. Lawrence. We win COP and have a sizable TUC advantage that could go away if we lose WMU. Michigan has a 0.1 RPI advantage.
• Vermont. Same situation as St. Lawrence, but only if they do well in two games against BU upcoming.

Etched In Stone

• Lake State (or whoever is #25). Michigan will beat either Lake State or whoever replaces them simply by virtue of being well above .500.
• UMass. Huge RPI edge and we own COP.
• Michigan Tech. See Lake State.
• Niagara. See Lake State.
• Quinnipiac. See Lake State.
• Western. See Lake State.
• Wisconsin. H2H win and major RPI/TUC advantages. They win COP at the moment.

LOSING COMPARISONS

(Prefer these to be tossups.)

Tossups

• Boston College. Michigan has an RPI advantage of about 0.1, which is probably going to stand. They've lost COP and can't get it back. BC currently wins the TUC category because they're 9-8-0 and Michigan is 9-8-1.
• Miami. We have a tiny RPI edge; they have a tiny edge in TUC and a decent-sized lead in COP. A lot of wiggle in this comparison since it's a conference team.

Solid

• Boston University. Michigan has lost COP and is far behind in TUC. If BU gets swept by Vermont and Michigan outperforms BU in their respective conference tourneys Michigan might get by, but it's doubtful.
• Maine. We've lost COP. TUC is dead even at 9-8-1; Maine has two left against TUC Vermont and a decent RPI advantage. If Maine coughs it up at the end of the season we could move past them; doubtful.
• St. Cloud. The Huskies have a brutal closing stretch against Minnesota and North Dakota and could conceivably lose their TUC advantage over us if Michigan plays well down the stretch. We own COP right now with two against Minnesota pending. It would take a hefty collapse by SCSU but it's not impossible.

Etched In Stone

• Clarkson. We've lost COP, don't have the games to make up TUC.
• Minnesota. Duh.
• UNH. Duh.
• ND. Duh.

(Aside: notice how we're killing WCHA teams in COP? This is largely because we only had to lose to Minnesota once. Some of these teams, good otherwise, are rocking 0-4 records versus the Gopher death machine. Another item to add to the Complaints Against The Pairwise.)

THE UPSHOT

Without highly improbable events we have limited upside but limited downside. If we take all five tossups and nothing in the solid categories flip we'll be the last two-seed. If we lose all of them we have minor trouble, as we'll be tied for 12th with State. Since they win our comparison in this hypothetical scenario, they'll get the #12 seed and we'll be a couple of conference tournament upsets from getting bounced.

The good news: I don't think Western's TUC status matters all that much in terms of getting into the tournament. It will be hard to pull many of the tossups without that 3-1 boost, but the only way we can not make the tournament is by killing our RPI with bad performances against OSU and in the first round of the playoffs. Michigan's fate is entirely within its own hands. And with the vagaries of the PWR, where you actually get seeded is virtually irrelevant. I'd rather end up #12 than #9 and have to face Minnesota. (Unless Holy Cross wins the Atlantic Hockey tournament.)

Assuming at least a split versus OSU and a Michigan victory in their first-round playoff series, we are in, Western or no. If Michigan goes out and loses four straight, we're out, but assuming a reasonable performance down the stretch Michigan's tourney streak is not in jeopardy.

Untangling The TUC Cliff

The status of Western Michigan, Lake State, and Ohio State is vitally relevant to Michigan's tournament chances. At this moment, both Western and Lake State are tentatively TUCs (assuming, as most do, a "good win" bonus of .003); Ohio State is not. Michigan plays OSU this weekend; Western and Lake State play at the Soo. All four games are critical for Michigan. Obviously, losing to OSU is bad but it gets even worse if getting swept shoves the Buckeyes into the top 25 in RPI, adding an ugly 0-2 to Michigan's TUC record. Michigan is 1-1 against Lake State and would probably prefer the Lakers to not be a TUC; they are 3-1 against Western and very much want those games to count extra.

This calculation was easier a year ago when there was a set threshold instead of a top 25, but we do what we must. With two games against a decent opponent, a Western sweep will retain their TUC status. The chasing teams don't have the opponents to pass the Broncos. Threat by threat:

• RIT plays Bentley, 55th of 59 in RPI.
• Sacred Heart plays Army, 44th.
• Lake State plays... uh... Western.
• MSU-Mankato plays Colorado College.

Only Mankato has the opportunity to break past Western if they sweep, and that would require an implausible sweep of their own. OTOH, if Western takes the pipe their RPI will drop to 0.4986. Though teams are going to bounce around madly over a weekend of play, as of right now that would be good for but 32nd. There's no chance they get swept and retain TUC status.

Is a split good enough? Maybe. They're 24th now, so one team can pass them. With a split Western will see their RPI drop to .5057 from .5100 -- not good. Both RIT and Sacred Heart are better than that now, albeit barely. Since they're playing crappier opponents than Western, if either one of them splits Western would stay ahead of them. Lake State will not pass Western with a split and Mankato needs three points from CC to make the leap. Past that you're looking for fairly improbable things to happen, like Bemjidi sweeping its last four games or Northeastern taking its last three, for anyone to pass the Broncos.

In sum: Western sweep is good. If they get swept they're gone. If they split we're rooting for Army or Bentley to take one of four games and for CC to not completely blow it against Mankato. The chances of that are around 75%, just to pull a number out of thin air. One of two should be good enough for now. The playoffs will also play a major role, but projecting out past the next couple games is fruitless.

Nasty, close your eyes and shiver scenario: That is, unless Michigan gets swept this weekend. That would propel OSU past Western into the 25th spot in the 75% scenario, replacing our 3-1 record versus them with a (hypothetical) 0-2 record versus Ohio State. Our RPI would plummet to 15th, our TUC record would get eviscerated, and the chances of an at-large bid would virtually flatline.

Moral of the story: do not lose to Ohio State this weekend.

Unverified Voracity Is Precious

All Hail Hunsick. The Detroit News on Sunday's Lake State game:

T.J. Hunsick scored twice for Michigan in a 3-1 Central Collegiate Hockey Association victory over Lake Superior State Sunday at Joe Louis Arena.

Woo!

While we're on hockey, the current PWR is a perfect example of why the system is so very broken. Despite Michigan going 1-2-1 over its last four against generally mediocre competiton, they've moved up to seventh in the pairwise. Why? Western Michigan clawed its way into the top 25 in RPI by sweeping Michigan State last weekend. All of a sudden, Michigan's 3-1 record against the Broncos is deemed relevant. The result:

5	Clarkson	20	4	20-7-5	.7031	5	.5588
6	Boston University	19	6	17-5-9	.6935	6	.5561
7	Michigan	18	8	22-11-1	.6618	9	.5482
8	Maine	16	11	19-10-2	.6452	10	.5474
9t	Denver	15	12	20-11-3	.6324	7	.5502
9t	North Dakota	15	16t	17-11-4	.5938	8	.5487

Where before Michigan was getting punished for stupid reasons, -- like having a 1-1 record against common opponents instead of a 1-0-1 record -- now they are rewarded for Western Michigan proving itself a little less mediocre. The TUC cliff in action, folks. Anyway: pull hard for WMU this weekend against Lake State.

Oldish Mallett article from the Daily. Has this passage:

With starting quarterback Chad Henne entering his final season as a Wolverine, Michigan coach Lloyd Carr has made it clear that Mallett won't redshirt this season. And the freshman seems fine with that.

"It wasn't my decision," Mallett said. "If they need me to play, then I'll play. If they want me to redshirt, then I'll redshirt."

We already knew that Carr said Mallett was unlikely to redshirt, something which bugs me on a regular basis. Last year Carlos Brown and Adam Patterson basically threw away a year of eligibility for scant garbage time against teams like Eastern Michigan and Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Prescott Burgess would be returning for a fifth year and a shot at being drafted in the first round if he had only taken a redshirt. I know Carr sometimes has to promise a recruit playing time as a freshman, but whatever salutary effects one gets out of 12 snaps versus MAC backups pale in comparison to a potential fifth year. Mallett evidently does not demand playing time and though the hype around him suggests that he won't be around for five years, that's hardly a guarantee. Unless Lloyd knows something about Jason Forcier that we don't, I would prefer him to redshirt.

We do hates them. Someone dropped a link to this in the comments of a Fanhouse post in which I declare my Irish antipathy:



Now my facebook profile picture.

Hire Rudy T? There's a movement afoot to make Rudy Tomjanovich the next Michigan basketball coach. I'm personally in the "Hire Anyone" camp, but Rudy T seems a decent choice. Remember the weird recruiting saga of Tory Jackson, who Amaker "backed off of" because of demands from his handlers? Yeah...

• Jackson was averaging 5.67 assists per game going into today's game, second in the Big East. USF freshman Chris Howard is leading at 6.18. The next best freshman if Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds, seventh in the conference at 4.25 assists per game right behind Dominic James who is averaging 4.77 per game.
• Tied for second in the conference in steals, 2.08 per game. The next best freshman, Villanova's Reggie Redding, is seventh.
• ...Jackson has been climbing the Big East rankings in assists to turnovers ratio. He entered today's game fourth at 2.13. Only one other freshman, South Florida's Chris Howard at #8, is in the top fifteen.

Amaker's refusal to accept whatever demands Notre Dame did has left us in the capable hands of Jerrett Smith, a guy Amaker offered as a sophomore. A suggestion for Amaker's post-Michigan career: Detroit Lions scout.

Etc.: Braves & Birds presents his life as a Michigan basketball fan in haiku.

2008 Michigan Football Recruiting Board

Be sure to read the official mgoblog recruiting philosophy before committing suicide over anything you read here.

A Note on "Stars": These are my guesstimates. Players don't have stars associated with them yet. When the recruiting services add them I'll adjust my ratings. Half-stars appear to provide some additional accuracy. Generally a 4.5 star is a guy solidly in the top 100 on Scout/Rivals/ESPN and really highly rated by one. A 3.5 star is either a guy who is is a 3 on one site and a 4 on the other or a four-star that no one seems particularly excited about.

A Note on Premium Info: No illicit sharing of said material will appear on this site. Players are listed with interested schools in their profiles; this information is public. Commitments are by definition public. Any assertions as to schools in the mix, decision dates, or leaders I will back up with links to public information.

Projected Class Size:

As of right now: 18. Probably 22 by signing day.

	Names	Count
Expired Eligibility	Henne, Hart, Long, Kraus, Crable, Adams, Englemon, Campbell, C. Graham	9
Transfer	Forcier, Mixon, McKinney, Mallett	4
Early Entry	Manningham, Arrington.	2
Unrenewed Fifth /Medical	DeBenedictis, Ciulla, Mitchell, Gallimore	4
Other	Unused: 1. Stupidity: Germany, Richards, Sears; Lethargy: Schifano.	5

Total: 24.

Anything not in the "expired eligibility" is a wild-ass guess from me; read nothing into it, I beg you.

Update 2/4: Moved FL QB Justin Feagin to committed. Then moved him back to uncommitted. Moved TX WR Terrence Robinson to committed. Removed PA HB Christian Wilson. Linked to some more Feagin video, Robinson commit video. Added FL WR Onterrio McCalebb, FL OL Ricky Barnum, removed FL WR Martavious Odoms.

Pryor: one.

Update 2/5: Removed OH WR Roy Roundtree (premium article but the meat is in the headline/header).

PRYOR EEEE PRYOR EEEE: He's not deciding... unless he is! Jack McCallum knows jack and says OSU; Tom Luginbill also knows jack and says Michigan.

Signing Day: Moved OH OL Patrick Omameh to committed. Moved FL QB Justin Feagin to committed.

The Board

Legend:

Icon	Name	Meaning
	Sad Josh	The genre of player with unrequited interest in Michigan. Unlikely to receive offers; most will eventually fade off the list and go to Duke or Michigan State or something.
	Nefarious Eduardo	Player is a longshot. Either they've declared someone else a leader publicly or popular opinion holds that they're likely to go to another school.
	Data	Either no opinion or Michigan is one of a fairly even group of chasing schools. Players in this category maintain no leader or change their leader frequently. The default category for players that we don't know much about yet.
	Happy Teeth	Players who have Michigan in a small leading group or have Michigan as a tenuous favorite. Should be regarded as a good shot, not a slam dunk.
	Mr. Blue	Player is either a verbal or is expected to be one sooner or later. Players with this designation are 65%+ to be Michigan commits.

Quarterback
Needs: Minor. Mallett's on board; Forcier and Cone provide adequate depth. I would expect one guy of the three-star variety.

Update: Forcier's departure means that one quarterback is a must and should improve our chances a bit, since Mallett can no longer redshirt and we can offer any prospective commits an opportunity to get two years of separation.

Update Update: With Wienke's commit and the transfer of Stephen Threet, who's now essentially a member of the 2007 class who has to redshirt, we are done. I have Pryor on the board until he eliminates us officially.

Projected Commits: 1.

Quarterback

Prospects
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Justin Feagin	FL	***	Michigan		Dual threat HS QB who's an ATH type that could end up several different places. Small-school player of the year in FL, third in Mr. Football voting. Rodriguez was on him at WVU; Michigan has taken up the baton. Video. Article.
Prospects
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Terrelle Pryor	PA	*****	Michigan, Ohio State, others		National #1 recruit. CNNSI article. NYT article. Video, more video, AA game video. Charlie Batch in the house.
Dominick Britt	OH	***	M, others?		Trotwood-Madison (Shaw, Moore, Roundtree)... visited this weekend. Offer?

Running Back / Fullback
Needs: Minor(FB)/Major(RB). Vince Helmuth and Andre Criswell will battle for the fullback job for the next few years. There's not much depth, but Michigan can move over some tight end or defender who's not going to see any time otherwise. At tailback Michigan picked up Avery Horn last year and has true sophomores Carlos Brown (argh wasted redshirt) and Brandon Minor, but looks for at least one tailback in every class. Whoever comes in this year will have a clear shot at the starting job after Mike Hart's departure.

Projected Commits: 3, 2 RB, 1 FB.

Running Back

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Sam McGuffie	TX	****	Michigan		Kid with the crazy highlight reel; parents originally from Michigan. Scout article. Houston Chron article. Scout article. Chron article. Set your DVRs for Oct. 18. Blue on McGuffie.
Mike Cox	CT	**	Michigan		MGoBlog on Cox.
Michael Shaw	OH	****	Michigan		Former PSU verbal, teammate of Brandon Moore. Recent visitor. Fringe top 100 guy.

Wide Receiver
Needs: Minimal. Clemons, Hemingway, Babb, and Webb all came in a year ago (though Webb is widely expected to end up at tight and Babb could be in the secondary sooner or later). Michigan always takes at least one, but a second will only be because Michigan found a player they really liked.

Projected Commits: 2.

Wide Receiver

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Darryl Stonum	TX	****.5	Michigan		Fort Bend Dulles (Woolfolk, Herron). Early Enrollee. Says we are team to beat. Scout article; another Scout article. Houston Chronicle article.
Terrence Robinson	TX	****	Michigan		Recent offer; 5'9 slot receiver like Reynaud. Youtube highlight; another. Chron article. Commit video.
Roy Roundtree	OH	****	Michigan		6'0" receiver, former Purdue commit. Trotwood-Madison (Shaw, Moore).
Prospects
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Onterrio McCalebb	FL	***	M, Auburn		Jitterbug sort. Visited on final opportunity to.

Tight End
Needs: Moderate. Would be "minimal" but Michigan is running a ton of multiple-TE sets these days. Two tight ends came in the last class. There is a third player, Quintin Woods, in academic limbo who may or may not arrive on campus.

Update: Carson Butler getting the boot upgrades the need here to "serious"; Brandon Moore's commit helps mitigate that somewhat. We will probably take another at this point.

Projected Commits: 1-2.

Tight End

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Brandon Moore	OH	****.5	Michigan		Offer. Video. Rivals Top 100/Scout Top 100. MGoBlog on Moore. Scout article; video interview. Photos. DDN article.
Kevin Koger	OH	****	Michigan		Offer. M-OSU battle. Blade article. Bunch of pictures. ATH DE. Video. Blade again. Blade on his commitment. Blade. Solid even after the coaching switch.

Offensive Line
Needs: Severe. Michigan has only five offensive line recruits across the last two classes. Fortunately two of those recruits, Justin Boren and Steve Schilling, appear to be can't-miss players. Beyond them is very little. Expect at least five recruits.

Projected Commits: 5.

Offensive Line

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Dann O'Neill	MI	****.5	Michigan		Tackle. Rivals 100 (#64). Grand Haven Tribune article. AANews article. Grand Rapids Press.
Elliot Mealer	OH	***.5	Michigan		Tackle prospect. Video. Blade article.
Kurt Wermers	IN	***.5	Michigan		Scout interview. Guard prospect. Article. MGoBlog on Wermers. Scout article. Local newspaper article. Video.
Rocko Khoury	MI	***	Michigan		Scout article. Commit article.
Patrick Omameh	OH	***	Michigan
Ricky Barnum	FL	****	Michigan		Florida verbal who visited.

Defensive Tackle
Needs: Moderate. It's hard to tell exactly who's a tackle and who's an end on the defensive line. It's also hard to tell whether or not freshmen Marques Slocum, Renaldo Sagesse, John Ferrara, and Jason Kates are going to do anything. Ferrara and Kates redshirted and Slocum may not have a redshirt year available after his bizarre academic sojourn, so for class balance purposes it may be more important than one might think to grab a DT in this class.

Projected Commits: 1.

Prospects

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Mike Martin	MI	****	Michigan		Offer. Rivals250. Senior year highlights.

Defensive End
Needs: Moderate. Michigan has a plethora of good sophomore options in Eugene Germany, Brandon Graham, and Adam Patterson (arrrgh wasted redshirt) plus freshman Ryan Van Bergen.

Projected Commits: 2.

Defensive Ends

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Prospects
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Nick Perry	MI	****	M, MSU, USC, Miami		May be an OLB. Offer. Lemming thinks he'll stay home, FWIW. USC lead?

Linebacker
Needs: Minor? Michigan evidently thinks the need here is severe given the offers they have out, but since Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh, Cobrani Mixon, and Quintin Patilla all redshirted Michigan has no fewer than six linebackers with freshman eligibility. Marell Evans and Brandon Herron are a lock to join the redshirt crew, too.

Projected Commits: 2, but it would be nice if they were big-timers.

Linebacker

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
JB Fitzgerald	NJ	****	Michigan		Offer. Junior stats. Scout article; second. Has visited lots; think we lead. Another Scout article; another. Schiano following him around in a helicopter. Soft?
Marcus Witherspoon	NJ	****	Michigan		Rivals 250. Offer. Scout interview. MGoBlog on Witherspoon. Newspaper article. Reopened recruiting after coaching change, Michigan still likely destination. Recommitted; article.
Kenny Demens	MI	***.5	Michigan		Offer. Commit article.
Taylor Hill	OH	***.5	Michigan		MGoBlog on Hill.

Cornerback
Needs: Moderate, even considering Cissoko's commitment. Though Michigan's now secured two five-star-ish commits in two years, in the new spread-mad era of college football one can never have enough cornerbacks. Two of last year's three commits are huge projects; Michigan will go hard after another couple corners.

Projected Commits: 2.

Cornerback

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Boubacar Cissoko	MI	****.5	Michigan		Heavily hyped after a couple standout combine performances as a junior. Detroit Cass Tech. PSU Nike Camp MVP. Video. DetNews article. Varsity Blue scouts. Still solid. Fluff. DetNews.
JT Floyd	SC	***	Michigan		ATH S. GoVols article. Palmetto Sports. Scout. Recent Scout article; still in it. Scout again. Palmetto on his trip. "Michigan fans will be happy."

Safety
Needs: Moderate. Jonas Mouton is an OLB and Jerimy Finch can't decide what he wants on his Big Mac, let alone which school he wants to go to, leaving Michigan with Steve Brown, Michael Williams, and Artis Chambers across the last two classes

Projected Commits: 2.

Safety

Prospects
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Y/N	Notes
Brandon Smith	NJ	****	Michigan		HS QB. ATH WR/OLB(?). Offer. Scout article. Sounds enthused. Rivals article; Scout article. May commit at PSU? Interview. Visited CU. Commit article.

Kickers
Needs: None. Zoltan is a sophomore, Bryan Wright a redshirt freshman.

Projected Commits: 0, though if someone wants to walk on they'll take him.

A reminder: the Star Scale for Rumor Credibility.

• 0-star: incoherent ravings.
• 1-star: clearly biased speculation without backing.
• 2-star: Some guy saying something on some board that claims insider info due to a chance occurence.
• 3-star: Information from someone less established as an insider but a frequent poster who seems sane and useful.
• 4-star: recognized insider-type person with no ax to grind who has established his bonafides on past recruits.
• 5-star: actually verified by an article and a quote from the player, a family member, or a coach.

So. Cutoff is two stars... sometimes three. Played by feel. In the future there will be denotations as follows:

UV: the information in sum(star rating).

Links will be provided so you can judge for yourself; posts that will fall into the memory hole will be copied for posterity.

Old Updates:


Update 2/25: Added NJ S Brandon Smith, TN WR Rodriguez Wilks, IL OL Graham Pocic, CA OL Vaugn Dotsy, and FL LB Nigel Bradham. Linked to Mike Zordich interview. Fixed "illcit" typo that had been there for two years. Added VA LB Marcus Dowtin, GA DT Omar Hunter, and MI CB Troy Tidwell, MN WR Michael Floyd, OH WR Nate Wilburn-Ogletree. Linked to Jon Major interview. Added KY DE Dexter Heyman, KY DT Brandon Newman, CT DT Massengo Kabongo.

Downgraded NC S Robert Blanton from green to yellow.

Update 3/5: Upgraded Jonas Gray from red to yellow. Added MI QB Brendon Kay, NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon, MN LB Sam Maresh, MI WR James Wade. Linked to article on MN WR Michael Floyd -- he has an offer. Added CA WR Christopher Owusu. Noted that 'Bama and UF lead for GA S Darrell Simmons.

Removed IN OL Braxton Cave and IN WR John Goodman, who both committed to ND.

Update 3/15: Downgraded PA LB Andrew Sweat to yellow. Downgraded OH TE Brandon Moore to red; bet you a dollar he's SEC. Added OH OL Matt Grieser, IN OL Kurt Wermers, FL DT Marcus Forston, NJ WR Dejuan Miller, OH LB Justin Staples, OR OL Matt Lipski, IL DE Darius Fleming, NY RB Latavius Murray, NV(!) TE Cody Aughney, PA WR Vaughn Carraway, and NJ DE Jack Crawford.

Linked to article on TX WR Daryl Stonum (down to Michigan & Florida), update on TX RB Sam McGuffie's track exploits. (Second McGuffie track update.) CA OL Khaled Holmes likes Borat. Linked to articles on MN WR Michael Floyd and IL DE Darius Fleming. Downgraded Zebrie Sanders to red -- we're not in his top five.

Removed OH OL Mike Adams (OSU).

Update 3/21: Linked to articles on NC DB Robert Blanton, NJ LB JB Fitzgerald (lol). Noted that GA DT Omar Hunter has his offer now. (woot) Moved MI OL Dann O'Neill to committed. Added IL RB Jason Ford, NJ LB Brendan Beal. Removed OH TE Kyle Rudolph (dropped us), OH LB Devoe Torrence (OSU). Moved PA DT Lucas Nix to OT, where he's getting recruited by a lot of schools. If he ends up here OT is a much more logical place for him to play.

Downgraded CA OL Khaled Holmes to red; USC leads. Linked to JB Shugarts article, Brendan Smith article.

Update 3/26: Removed FL OL Michael Brewster (dropped us). Downgraded PA TE Mark Weddeburn to red after ugly Scout article. Upgraded CO OL Bryce Givens to green: we lead w/ Nebraska. Linked to articles on OH S Dan McCarthy, PA OL Luke Nix (upgraded Nix to yellow since this supposed heavy Pitt lean does not appear to be materializing), PA OL RJ Dill, OH LB Brandon Beachum, TX OL JB Shugarts, KY DE Dexter Heyman. Upgraded Zebrie Sanders to yellow; top-five omission in earlier article appears to be momentary oversight. Added MD OL Lane Clelland, SC OL Kenneth Page.

Removed OH TE Jake Stoneburner (OSU). Downgraded CA CB Robert Golden to red -- not in top six. Ditto for PA LB Andrew Sweat -- running fourth. Ditto for Brandon Leslie -- no offer, not in top five.

Update 4/5: Linked to article on PA WR Vaughn Carraway. Black Shoe Diaries now has a recruiting board of his own; it thinks we lead for him. Bumped MI WR Fred Smith to green. Linked to article on PA LB Shane Hayle; not in top six but he hasn't really narrowed it. Added CA QB Dayne Crist. Downgraded WA DE Kavario Middleton to red; nasty Scout article. Added TX DE Kapron Lewis-Moore, MI TE Tyler Hoover, OH TE Kevin Koger, AZ RB Covaughn Deboskie. Removed MN LB Sam Maresh (Minnesota), PA RB Cameron Saddler (lack of mutual interest).

Update 4/10: Linked to articles on CA WR Christopher Owusu, CA OL Khaled Holmes, and MO TE Wes Kemp. Both downgraded to red due to a lack of interest on M's part. Removed MN LB Sam Maresh (Minn). NE OL Trevor Robinson (Neb), OH TE Nic DeLillo (Clemson). Note that the same article claims M is in Zebrie Sanders' top three. Linked to articles on AZ RB Covaughn Deboskie and KS LB Arthur Brown. Removed TN WR Rodriguez Wilks (we threw him an offer but he's SEC all the way), CO OL Bryce Givens (Neb). Added OH OL Elliot Mealer, OH LB Jamiihr Williams. Linked to very positive article on MI WR Fred Smith and one of those Scout articles about campers/visitors that make a lot of assertions worth evaluating.

Update 4/15: Added a legend. Some small changes: all of our little projection icons have names. Mr. Blue, previously reserved for Michigan commitments, is now deployed for players like Marcus Witherspoon (please note latest Rivals article from the PSU site: "Witherspoon has heart set on Big Ten school"; it's not PSU) and Fred Smith who are highly likely to end up Michigan commits and -- this has key -- have said as much publicly. Hopefully no Rojo types end up in this categorization, but no guarantees are provided. There's a new icon, Sad Josh, used for guys who have expressed an interest that Michigan does not seem to reciprocate. With the clarifications and such several players have been moved into new categories. Smith and Witherspoon get Mr. Blue. Deboskie gets a green now that there's a separate category for players who are expected to end up at Michigan. A bunch of players got shoved into Sad Josh. Er.

Added MI DT Mike Martin. Linked to stories on OH TE Kevin Koger, CA QB Dayne Crist (header for second is not good), IN OL Kurt Wermers, IL DE Darius Fleming, some video of OH OL Elliot Mealer. Removed FL LB Nigel Bradham (FSU), CA CB Robert Golden (we don't seem that interested, and neither does he).

Update 4/20: Linked to article on TX RB Sam McGuffie. Removed CA CB Brandon Leslie (no mutual interest), PA LB Andrew Sweat (dropped us), CA QB Dayne Crist (ND), MI S Charles Burrell(MSU). Added OH RB Darius Ashley, MD RB Josh Haden, NC RB Brandon Barnes, LA TE Tyler Edwards. Linked to header on OH OT Elliot Mealer, article on PA WR Jonathan Baldwin, article on OH LB Brandon Beachum, article on MI TE Tyler Hoover.

Removed GA S Darrell Simmons (dropped us), NJ LB Brendan Beal (dropped us). Linked to article on OH OL Zebrie Sanders. Added TX S Keanon Cooper, OK S Kye Staley. Moved OH OL Elliot Mealer to committed.


Update 4/30: Added VA WR Deion Walker, KY OL Ryan Benzick, IL DT Garrett Goebel, AZ OL Zach Schlinck, WV OL Josh Jenkins, OR DE Ethan Johnson (offered). Linked to articles on OH OL commit Elliot Mealer, GA DT Omar Hunter. Removed IL RB Jason Ford (M lack of interest). Linked to brief mention of possible M lead for IL LB Stephen Filer.

Am specifically leaving two guys off the board despite some announced interest: TX WR Sedrick Johnson claims a verbal offer from Michigan and has them in his top five, which he claims is in no order before talking all about how Texas A&M is highly likely to get him. CA RB Milton Knox says Michigan is in his top five; we haven't offered. If these guys appear to be serious targets later I'll add them.

Update 5/7: Linked to Scout header indicating IL OL Graham Pocic has an offer. (This means the gray icon has been replaced with a yellow.) Linked to AJC article on GA DT Omar Hunter, blog post on AZ RB Covaughn Deboskie. Noted assertion on BP that OH RB Darius Ashley has officially snagged a Michigan offer (FWIW. Seems solid to me). Added PA RB Cameron Saddler, TX LB Joseph Ibiloye, NV DT Lawrence Guy, AZ CB Marc Anthony. Removed MD OL Lane Clelland(ND). Linked to articles on MD RB Josh Haden, PA TE Hubie Graham (#2), PA WR Jonathan Baldwin.

Update 5/14: Consistent and repeated pessimism at BP re: OH TE Kevin Koger has caused me to bump him up to blue. (There is also a poster who has to be a high school classmate of IL OL/DT Garrett Goebel ranting about woo OSU in that recruitment; don't know how seriously to take it.) Also downgraded PA OL Lucas Nix to red; seems the Pitt lean is for real. Moved Christian Wilson from LB to RB; he's been offered as a FB/H-back. Linked to articles on OH OL Zebrie Sanders, IL OL Graham Pocic, KS LB Arthur Brown, AZ OL Zach Schlink, GA DT Omar Hunter. Added AR WR Joe Adams.

Much rejiggering of DTs, much of it based on one of those GBW summary articles: MI DT Mike Martin has an offer and is widely presumed to be a lock; he's upgraded to blue. NV DT Lawrence Guy now has an offer and has Michigan in his top three; green. MS DT Cameron Wagner is downgraded to gray with the new offers out. KY DT Brandon Newman goes down to red; there has been much talk of him and Notre Dame.

Linked to articles on AZ RB Covaughn Deboskie (visit coming up), NJ S Will Hill (he speaks!), another on IL OL Graham Pocic, PA WR Jonathan Baldwin (amongst other PA recruits). Also here is another combine article. Removed OH LB Mike Zordich.

Linked to Jim Stefani's early Michigan top 25.

Update 5/21: Linked to article on DC DT Reggie Ellis. Added KS TE Spencer Ladner, AL OL Antoine McClain, GA S Jamoris Slaughter (Scout article), FL OL Matt Patchan. Linked to Rivals roundup article w/ info on Cissoko, Fred Smith, Vaughn Carraway, newspaper article on Butler High in NC. Did some general cleanup with schools of interest and reorganized a couple sets with some new gray icons. Linked to Jonas Gray article. Does he have a frickin' offer or not? Linked to articles on PA WR Vaughn Carraway, NC S Robert Blanton, PA LB Shayne Hale, PA QB Terrelle Pryor, header on PA WR Jonathan Baldwin (no longer considering basketball), pictures of OH TE Kevin Koger. Moved IN OL Kurt Wermers and OH TE Brandon Moore to committed. Added TX CB Adrian Bushell. Downgraded Darrell Scott to red, removed FL DT Marcus Forston (was only on board because of single brief mention, does not appear to have any serious interest). Linked to articles on the commitments of Wermers (second article) and Moore. Added AZ TE Dion Jordan.

Update 5/28: Linked to articles on TX WR Daryl Stonum, NJ LB JB Fitzgerald (lolacronym), IL OL Garrett Goebel, MO LB Spencer Ladner, MI WR Fred Smith, IL OL Graham Pocic, GA DT Omar Hunter. Also linked to what seems very solid speculation on NC S Robert Blanton: ND. Added CA S Rahim Moore, AL LB Jerrell Harris, OH DB DJ Woods, CT LB Jonathan Meyers, AZ LB Kurt Magnum, OH RB Michael Shaw.

Backed OH TE Kevin Koger down from blue to green after the Brandon Moore commit. Another article on Goebel. McGuffie is going to be on ESPN2 this fall. Bumped GA DT Omar Hunter to blue; article header encourages. Bumped Darrell Scott to yellow; reports of having a top three minus Michigan not true.

Update 6/4: Linked to articles on MO TE Spencer Ladner, PA RB Cameron Saddler, TX S Keanon Cooper, NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon, TX DE Kapron Lewis-Moore (downgraded to red; no M mention), TX CB Adrian Bushell, OH OL Zebrie Sanders, MI RB Jonas Gray, OR DE Ethan Johnson, OH LB Brandon Beachum. Added AZ RB Ray Polk, CA DE (DT?) Jamaar Jarrett, LA CB Robby Green. Linked to a trio of articles on some PA recruits: WR Jonathan Baldwin, LB Shayne Hale, and QB Terrelle Pryor, OL Lucas Nix, RB/WR/KR Cameron Saddler.

Removed PA LB Shariff Blake (no M interest), CA OL Khaled Holmes, PA OL RJ Dill, TX LB Joseph Ibiloye (dropped us). Linked to the Pittsburgh Sports Report's PA Top 50. OH RB Michael Shaw now has an offer. Linked to articles on WA DE Kavario Middleton, MI OL Rocko Koury, LA CB Robby Green. Moved NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon to committed.

Update 6/11: Removed MO TE Spencer Ladner (Cal), GA DT Omar Hunter (ND), LA TE Tyler Edwards (dropped us). Moved MI DT Mike Martin to committed. Linked to articles on KS LB Arthur Brown, MI RB Jonas Gray, LA CB Robby Green, PA QB Terrelle Pryor. Added IL DE Glen Foster, IL OL Neal Dieters, TX WR Jeffery Fuller, VA QB Sean Glennon, TN OL Preston Bailey. Noted solid inside info on OH RB Michael Shaw from BP. Linked to speculation on PA WR Jonathan Baldwin and PA QB Terrelle Pryor.

Update 6/18: Removed MO WR Wes Kemp (Wisc), MD RB Josh Haden (down to BC, UF), CA WR Christopher Owusu (no M interest). Linked to articles on AZ RB Covaughn Deboskie (slight Cal lead, moved down to yellow from green), NJ TE Chris Pantele, NJ S Will Hill, OH LB Brandon Beachum (offered?), another on Beachum, OH RB Michael Shaw, TX CB Adrian Bushell. Two headers of note from always excitable GBW: TX WR Daryl Stonum visits; NJ S Brandon Smith sounds enthused.

Scout has updated their top 100. We like Rivals better this year.

Update 6/25: Linked to articles on MI RB Jonas Gray (MSU lead, but that was before he got his Michigan offer), WA DE Kavario Middleton, OR DE Ethan Johnson, MN WR Michael Floyd, PA FB Christian Wilson (also info on Saddler, Baldwin). Youtube video of Jonathan Meyers; Daily Illini article with quotes from FL DE Cory Liuget, IL DE Glen Foster, and IL LB Steven Filer. Added OK QB Nathan Stanley, WI OL Kevin Zeitler.

Removed NC S Robert Blanton (ND), PA OL Lucas Nix (Pitt), MI TE Tyler Hoover (MSU), IL OL Graham Pocic (Ill).


Update 7/1: Linked to video of OH TE Kevin Koger, note on VA LB Marcus Dowtin, article on IL OL/DT Garrett Goebel, PA TE Hubie Graham, PA LB Shayne Hale, PA WR Jonathan Baldwin, KS LB Arthur Brown. Added IL QB John Weinke. Removed FL OL Matt Patchan (dropped us), VA WR Deion Walker (dropped us), NC RB Brandon Barnes (NC State), VA QB Mike Glennon (NC State), OR DE Ethan Johnson (ND), GA S Jamoris Slaughter (ND), WI OL Kevin Zeitler (Wisc), VA LB Marcus Dowtin (UGA). Moved MI OL Rocko Khoury to committed. Also: Khoury commit article.

Linked to the national Scout 300(!); always seeking to one-up Rivals, eh? Should I bother adding TX WR Sedrick Johnson? Shayne Hale and Saddler appear to be a package for real.

Also: articles on OH RB Michael Shaw (also a RUTS post), PA WR Jonathan Baldwin, OH TE Kevin Koger. Added AZ S Jarrell Barbour, GA LB Devonta Bolton, MI OL Deontae Pannell. Moved IL QB John Wienke and TX WR Daryl Stonum to committed And... wow... linked to thread at a Michigan message board in which the mother of PA FB/LB Christian Wilson asks a bunch of questions and gets some good answers and some appalling juvenility.

Update 7/8: Linked to articles on IL QB John Wienke (a second; video interview), PA WR Vaughn Carraway, TX S Keanon Cooper, AZ CB Marc Anthony, NJ S Brandon Smith. Video of MI CB Boubacar Cissoko. Added TX DE Damion Squire. Linked to Arizona blog post w/ mentions of AZ CB Marc Anthony, AZ TE Dion Jordan, and AZ OL Zach Schlinck. Linked to articles on VA WR Deion Walker, OH OL Zebrie Sanders, IL DT/OL Garrett Goebel, PA CB Jared Holley, IL QB John Wienke. Removed IL DE Glen Foster (Illinois).


Update 7/15: Linked to articles on NJ S Brandon Smith, MN WR Mike Floyd, OH OL Zebrie Sanders, TX CB Adrian Bushell, PA H-back Christian Wilson, LA CB Robby Green, AL OL Antoine McClain. Removed AZ DT Lawrence Guy (dropped us), MI QB Brendan Kay (Cinci), OK QB Nathan Stanley (M done at QB), WV OL Josh Jenkins (no indication of mutual interest).

Downgraded Deontae Pannell, Adrian Bushell from green to red. Downgraded Kevin Koger from green to yellow. Upgraded Nick Perry, Christian Wilson to blue, Robby Green to yellow. Noted some Hale/Saddler speculation from Scout.com's Bob Lichtenfels. Re-added VA WR Deion Walker.

Update 7/23: Linked to articles on NJ LB JB Fitzgerald, OH TE Kevin Koger, TX WR Darryl Stonum, PA LB Shayne Hale, IL OL Kurt Wermers, PA HB Christian Wilson. Removed OH LB Brandon Beachum (no offer; dropped us), AZ RB Covaughn Deboskie (dropped us), GA LB Devonta Bolton (dropped us). Moved OH TE Kevin Koger to committed.

There's also this article from a WVA paper about the Hale/Saddler package deal that is sort of horribly written.

Update 7/30: Added FL LB Tarik Rollins(then immediately removed him), NC DE Quintin Coples, KS WR Chris Harper. Linked to articles on TX WR Jeff Fuller, MN WR Michael Floyd, VA WR Deion Walker, video of CA RB Darrell Scott (interview), more articles on IL QB John Wienke, NJ LB JB Fitzgerald, MI RB Jonas Gray. Removed AL OL Antoine McClain (dropped us), IL LB Steven Filer (ND), FL DE Cory Liuget (dropped us). Linked to Bucknuts chat w/ mentions of IL DT Garret Goebel and PA LB Shayne Hale. Also a Bucknuts thread with more Hale. Now: Scout article on Hale.

Another article on Walker, and Goebel Goebel Goebel. First: Scout article. Second third and fourth are threads from Buckeye message boards featuring XPUNISHER posts -- XPUNISHER is Garrett's uncle. Nevermind. He committed to OSU.

Update 8/6: Linked to articles on WA DE Kavario Middleton, AL LB Jerrell Harris, video interviews with DC DT Reggie Ellis and OH TE Brandon Moore; photos of Moore. Added CA S Vaughn Telemaque, TX WR Omarius Hines. Removed MI RB Jonas Gray (Neb), MI WR Fred Smith (MSU). Added CT RB Mike Cox as a commit. Linked to Scout interview of PA LB Shayne Hale and PA WR Cameron Saddler; speculation from Recruiting Planet on the package deal.

Also, there's an updated Rivals 100.

Update 8/13: Linked to fully ranked Rivals 250, articles on MI CB Boubacar Cissoko, TX S Keanon Cooper, AZ TE Dion Sims, MN WR Michael Floyd. Removed MI OT Deontae Pannell (PSU), OH RB Michael Shaw (PSU), TX DE Damien Square ('Bama), AZ S Jarrell Barbour (Arizona). Linked to Facebook chat w/ CT RB Mike Cox. Added PA DE Adrian Robinson.

Update 8/20: Linked to articles on LA CB Robby Green, PA WR Jonathan Baldwin (second), PA HB Christian Wilson (useless; only linked to assuage potential fears), KS LB Arthur Brown, CA S Vaughn Telemaque, PA LB(DE?) Shayne Hale, AR WR Joe Adams, NC CB Spencer Adams. Removed SC OL Kenneth Page (dropped us), AZ OL Zach Schlink (ASU). Added FL S Karnell Hatcher. Noted header from GBW: we are getting official from LA CB Robby Green (OMG shirtless).

There is an updated Scout 300. I also point out this Darrell Simmons article, but do not add to board. There is also another Wilson article, plus articles on CA DE Jamar Jarrett , OH TE Brandon Moore, PA RB/WR/KR Cameron Saddler, and AZ CB Marc Anthony.

Update 8/27: Moved PA HB Christian Wilson to committed. Removed OK S Kye Staley (Okie State), TX DE Kapron Lewis-Moore (A&M). Linked to articles on MI OL commit Dann O'Neill (another), NJ LB Chris Pantale, video feature on PA HB commit Christian Wilson, more articles on MN WR Michael Floyd, AZ CB Marc Anthony, CA RB Darrell Scott, CO LB Jon Major, PA HB Christian Wilson, PA DE Shayne Hale.

FWIW: internets scuttlebutt on NJ LB JB Fitzgerald. And Varsity Blue took in an OLSM-Cass Tech game, reporting back on Cissoko and '09 commit Will Campbell plus '09 WR/TE Dion Sims. Also: an article on elusive PA CB Jarred Holley that may have an incorrect list for him.

Update 9/3: Linked to articles on PA WR/RB/KR Cameron Saddler, PA HB commit Christian Wilson, DC DT Reggie Ellis, PA WR Jonathan Baldwin, MN WR Mike Floyd, OH TE commit Kevin Koger. Also one that mentions both Saddler and Hale, and this on NJ S Brandon Smith.

Potentially dubious: There is also Bill Kurelic speculation on PA DE Shayne Hale and an article on the top 25 players in Pennsylvania. Hey: the top 50(!) players in Pennsylvania... M/Pitt lead for Baldwin suggested. Recruiting Planet says JB Fitzgerald is committing to M this weekend. Moved NJ LB JB Fitzgerald to committed.

More articles: PA LB Shayne Hale, LA CB Robby Green, PA WR Vaughn Carraway. Removed PA DT Reggie Ellis(dropped us), TX WR Jeff Fuller (Ok). More articles: PA TE Mark Wedderburn, TX S Keanon Cooper, NJ S Brandon Smith, TN CB JT Floyd, MI CB Boubacar Cissoko (and others), PA HB Christian Wilson, PA LB JB Fitzgerald. Also a general article on recruits not getting spooked.

Update 9/24: Added scholarship available due to Sears dismissal; now up to 19. Added FL S Karnell Hatcher, removed WA DE Kavario Middleton (dropped us), AZ CB Marc Anthony (Cal), KS LB Arthur Brown (dropped us), NJ S Will Hill (UF), PA QB Terrelle Pryor (dropped us). Linked to articles on NC CB Spencer Adams, TN CB JT Floyd, PA KR/WR Cameron Saddler.

Update 10/1: Linked to articles on CA S Vaughn Telemaque, MI CB Boubacar Cissoko. Moved MI LB Kenny Demens to committed. Removed LA CB Robby Green (dropped us).

Update 10/8: Linked to articles on CA DT Jurrell Casey (mentions CA S Vaughn Telemaque), TX S Keanon Cooper, PA HB Christian Wilson (second), NJ S Brandon Smith.

Update 10/15: Linked to articles on TN CB JT Floyd, TX S Keanon Cooper (just a header), TX RB Sam McGuffie (VIP emails), NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon. Added MI S Joevall Hoseay. Linked to new Scout 100.

Update 10/30: Linked to articles on PA CB Jared Holley, PA KR/WR Cameron Saddler, CA S Vaughn Telemaque, PA WR Vaughn Carraway, PA DE Shayne Hale.

Update 11/14: Added VA WR AJ Price.

Update 1/7: Wholesale board revamp.

Removed: IL QB John Wienke (decommitted to Iowa), CO LB Jon Major (CU), NJ LB Chris Pantale (BC), AZ RB Ray Polk (committed somewhere, I forget where), WRs Deion Walker, Michael Floyd, and Jonathan Baldwin (ND, ND, Pitt), NC CB Spencer Adams (Clemson), OH LB Zebrie Sanders, CA S Vaughn Telemaque, AZ TE Dion Jordan, PA TE Hubie Graham (Pitt), PA TE Mark Wedderburn, CT LB Jonathan Meyers (dropped us), and like a bunch of other marginal guys, PA CB Jared Holley.

Added: PA QB Terrelle Pryor, OH WR DJ Woods.

Moved: NJ S Brandon Smith to committed. NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon from committed.

Other stuff: extensive highlights of MI DT Mike Martin. We're still in it for JT Floyd.

Update 1/14: Kevin Koger is not wavering. Added TX WR Terrence Robinson, FL QB(?) Justin Feagin, SC WR Jaron Brown.

Articles on Pryor: One Two Three.

Update 1/21: removed TX CB Adrian Bushell, CA OL Vaughn Dotsy, a couple WRs. Added OH LB Taylor Hill as committed. Bumped SC CB JT Floyd to blue. Moved PA HB Christian Wilson from committed, downgraded to yellow based on mother's comments on message board.

Added FL CB TJ Lawrence (ht: Big House Blog), MS RB Desmond Johnson.

Pryor articles: one two three. (There are many more, but they all say the same things.) Also a throwdown.

Update 1/22: Removed OH WR DJ Woods (Cinci), TX S Keanon Cooper. Noted potential USC lead for Nick Perry. Added FL OL Rhonne Sanderson, MS S Charles Mitchell, OH RB Michael Shaw. Downgraded Christian Wilson and Marcus Witherspoon to yellow.

Update 1/25: Added FL QB BJ Daniels, FL WR Martavious Odoms, OH OT Patrick Omameh. Linked to articles on FL QB Justin Feagin, MI DE Nick Perry, SC CB JT Floyd. There's also an extensive piece on Big Ten recruiting classes at ESPN; though ESPN's proven itself useless in the prediction business, their opinions on recruits are an interesting data point.

Pryor articles: one two three four.

Update 1/28: Moved NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon back to committed. Linked to articles on OH TE Brandon Moore, FL WR Martavious Odoms, MI CB Boubacar Cissoko, SC WR Jaron Brown.

There's also a Blade article, but it doesn't contain any new information. Good summary, though.

Pryor articles: one two three.

Update 1/29: Linked to articles on NJ LB JB Fitzgerald, NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon. Removed MS RB Desmond Johnson (Southern Miss?!), FL OL Rhonne Sanderson (FSU).

Pryor: one (via) two.

Update 2/3: Removed FL CB TJ Lawrence, FL nutball QB BJ Daniels, SC WR Jaron Brown. Moved SC CB JT Floyd to committed. Added OH QB Dominick Britt, OH WR Roy Roundtree.

Linked to articles on PA HB Christian Wilson, NJ LB JB Fitzgerald, MI DE Nick Perry (second, third), brief mention of Wilson and Robinson.

Pryor: one two three pics four.

Lester Abram Arrested For Minor Traffic Stuff

Hello! This is a news update. Senior Michigan basketball wing Lester Abram was arrested last night at around 1 AM for driving on a suspended license after being pulled over for speeding somewhere near Lansing. There was a separate warrant out for the same offense. Also he didn't have proof of insurance.

You humble narrator actually fell prey to the exact same arrest -- in the parking lot of his workplace at the time, fun! -- because it turned out that there was some conflict of opinion on whether or not he had actually paid a particular ticket. The end result was embarrassing but not a big deal and a suspension is exceedingly unlikely.

Halfway To The End Of The World

(Which is Houghton.)

As mentioned, I attended Friday's Michigan-Lake State game in the Soo, and everything about it was lovely except the actual game itself. Some hockey comments first before delving into the atmospherics, as the game was not televised:

• Can't blame either Sauer or Hensick, really. None of Lake State's three goals were remotely savable. There was a deflection, a goal-crease scrum that ended with Sauer buried beneath a defenseman, and a horrendous Hunwick turnover that turned into a Lake State player with all day mere feet in front of Sauer, who managed to kick out the first shot before a second unmarked player threw the rebound over his prone body. For all I complained about him earlier in the year, he's been somewhere between solid and outstanding for the past couple months.
  
  Hensick, on the other hand, had games similar to those he had against BGSU and Michigan State where he would set his teammates up for glorious slot opportunity after glorious slot opportunity only to see those chances get flubbed. (Seriously: Porter in OT against MSU. WTF? How do you miss that?) On Michigan's last rush of the game, Hensick skated through two Lakers and rifled one off the inside of the post, prompting a torrent of inappropriate profanity from myself. And that's just me, a passive observer. I hope the team kept puppies away from him on the bus ride home.
• Yeah, other than that, though, the team was suck. The only player I trust to make intelligent decisions on the breakout is Jack (note that two of Michigan's three goals on Sunday came from tape-to-tape Jack breakout passes). Everyone else is slow and predictable and highly prone to hideous turnovers. I continue to be amazed at Hunwick's constant errors both in his own zone and at the opponent's blueline. He may be playing dumber than Jeff Jillson, though it's hard to tell. I sincerely hope Hunwick's smarter off the ice than on, otherwise he's going to have to do some serious explaining after slapping together yet another Onion Teriyaki Uranium sub once his AHL career is over.

Taffy-Abel. A charming little arena that feels like the best high school rink in the world. It's directly attached to the LSSU version of the CCRB or the IM building, and so you stroll by chlorine-scented doors and abandoned gymnasiums before arriving at the arena proper, which has all the ambiance of a missile silo from the exterior. Once you crest the threshold and view the thing itself, however:

Perhaps there's an excess of concrete, but I'll take that over an enormous, sterile box any day. The sizable but by no means sold out attendance was something of a disappointment: you have something else to do? No, you don't. I saw the town. The bars will be open after the game ends.

Lake State's relevant banners:

They're weird to look at: at one point in the not-distant past this place was the home of Doug Weight and Sandy Moger and a bunch of other guys who were the best hockey team in the country. Fear Jeff Jackson.

Behold the Glory of Pep. The Lake State pep band begs to be euthanized. There are ten of them including the battleship-sized conductor:

Piped-in music is heavily employed.

Yonder. The camera fritzed out before any shots could be taken of the improbable, blue-haired, booty-shaking student apparently named "Ashley Bugg" or something who functions much like "Mo Cheese" at Red Wings games. For those who have managed to dodge the sullen, overpriced glory of the Detroit Red Wings live, Mo Cheese is an immensely overweight man who arises sometime during the game and shakes like he's in a paint mixer. This invariably garners more cheers than anything outside of actual goals. Imagine this, only replace Mo himself with a generously proportioned LSSU student in a blue wig, the "Mo Cheese" Wings jersey with some sort of tassled, too-tight t-shirt with "69" inscribed on its back, the mercifully bountiful Mo Cheese pants with a pair of ratty boxer shorts, and increase the sexuality and frequency of the dance by two orders of magnitude. Also remove the uproarious approval and replace it with a quiet discomfort somewhere between mocking and pity.

This wasn't actually that surprising once I had gotten my head around the sheer brazenness of it. The colleges of the Upper Peninsula have an extremely sensitive term for the typical girl that attends them: "snow cows." Despite the evident distaste implied by the term, snow cows often find themselves in high demand simply by virtue of being identifiably female on campuses with 75% men, many of those engineering majors. For four years they get to be queens of their tiny universe and often lose all sense of perspective. For a miniature version of this principle at work, find an attractive (but not that attractive) female engineer anywhere.

Anyway... yeah. The eye is drawn against its will. It's a trainwreck.

KILL ZONE. Holy God, Taffy-Abel's glass is low. The nets found in the endzones of most hockey arenas are farcical as it is, but Jesus:

I've never sat in row four and had a direct flight path from most of the rink to my throat. This does have its advantages:

Our Laker guide regaled us with stories of kids getting pegged on a regular basis and one about an alert father who managed to snag a puck intent on his child's skull but could not repeat the trick when, a period later, a second rocketed out of the stands directly at him. Sadly, the KILL ZONE took a game off; no pucks came anywhere near us.

GOOOOOO BLUUUUEEEE. Sometime during the first period, a man who looked like the irritating father from that irritating show that puts together motorcycles entered. He was the size of a bouncer and had that particular combination of mustache plus enormous, connecting mutton-chop sideburns that screams "English PhD student," and by "English PhD student" I mean "yooper factory worker." Periodically he would scream "GO BLUE" at the top of his lungs. Standard operating procedure in these situations is to start making sarcastic comments that are just audible to the offender, but the combination of drunk, huge, and probably already wanted for murder put me off. Not to mention his companion, who was the size of a kodiak bear and may have been wearing the pelt of one.

Anyway, after Lake State's first go-ahead goal in the third, this guy gets up out of his seat, climbs up the aforementioned low boards, and starts SMASHING them with his ham-hock of a fist, screaming "GO BLUE GO BLUE GO BLUE" at the top of his lungs until arrested and removed from the arena.

The team was totally fired up.

What? As we made our way through the surprisingly crowded concourse after the game, a door opened up and the Lakers, shorn of skates but still in full equipment and smelling like it, emerged from a pair of double doors in front of us. I was brought up short by the convoy and made a WTF shrugging gesture to my travelling companions, at which point one of the Lakers slapped me five. Then they were gone, evidently to ring the victory bell outside. When they returned, I kept my hands in my pockets.

Newspapers Are Totally In Touch

This is off-topic unless you consider my neverending campaign to tarnish the reputation of newspapers on-topic:

The Newspapers Association of America (NAA) kicks off its literacy campaign with a selective list of celebrity talent. The legendary film and television star, OPTIMUS PRIME was chosen as a spokesman to help promote the importance of reading newspapers. This ad continues OPTIMUS PRIME’s rich legacy of public service – he regularly concluded his animated broadcasts with an intimate and encouraging public service message. To view the literacy campaign advertisement featuring OPTIMUS PRIME, or to download it as wallpaper, choose your resolution.

This is not a joke. Look:

Could this be a brilliantly ironic campaign designed to win the hearts and minds of disaffected 20-somethings? These are people who employ Drew Sharp: no. Is this my current wallpaper? Hell yes!

(Via)

Hot Hot Hot

(Obligatory:



)

So... Appalachian State. Bullets:

• Outrage? No more or less so than any other glorified exhibition. In terms of available opponents, Appalachian State is not functionally worse than anyone outside of Hawaii. There's a significant undercurrent of caterwauling about ASU's I-AA status, but the embarrassment of playing them should be roughly equivalent to that of playing Eastern, as ASU may actually be better. With Oregon and Notre Dame lined up, Michigan has the best non-conference schedule in the Big Ten and is probably in the top five amongst BCS schools.
• Still: irritated. I won't feel the irritation when we're actually playing ASU, since it's the opener and the return of actual college football is opiate enough to dull the nagging pain of ridiculous ticket prices for Aztec-style ritual beheadings. The irritation will kick in on October 6th when Eastern rolls in from Ypsi to get obliterated. The Ball State game last year was an all-around miserable experience and would have been even if the score had been the expected rote blowout.
• It's not like Bill Martin is actually at fault here. It's nearly impossible to find appropriate opponents these days because even D-I bottom feeders are searching for the real dregs of available opponents in the hope of sweeping four pitiful nonconference games and squeaking into a bowl with a shiny 2-6 record. Witness Vanderbilt, who's playing I-AA Richmond in a quest for rinky-dink bowl eligibility. The decision to allow a I-AA victory to count for bowl eligibility every year is killing nonconference scheduling as the previous sacrificial lambs find sacrificial lambs of their own. Even last year's game against Vandy was facilitated by ESPN. Without that additional incentive for the Commodores they would not have accepted the game and Michigan would have had to foray into the depths of I-AA a year earlier.
  
• There is no way this will stop without NCAA intervention. The proliferation of crappy bowls -- all of which, I would like to remind you, are expressly sanctioned by the NCAA -- and the twelfth game provide extraordinary pressure on crap teams to schedule their way into awful bowl games. Without socialism, each school would put itself at a disadvantage to disobey. Capitalism in college football scheduling is a failure.
• The NCAA is never going to take action. The laudable decision to do away with 3-2-5e in its entirety was coupled with a bunch of other ways to cut down on the length of games: they're still dancing to the puppet master's whims. While all the suggested changes are intelligent, the overall thrust of them can be interpreted as a depressing devotion to the revenue streams that are "needed" to pay ever increasing labor costs Bentley leasing fees. And coaches, always looking for excuses not to get fired, love the idea of a gimme game leading to a gimme bowl. Their much-publicized loathing of 3-2-5e was a major factor in its eventual repeal; note the complete lack of similar whinging from all coaches not named Lloyd Carr about embarrassing scheduling. The only ones complaining are the fans. Not even the media gives a crap.
• This year is a strange year in which two good home nonconference games make a second tomato can nominally acceptable, but the refusal to offer an away game to a reasonably bad BCS opponent with upside (canonical example: UNC) bodes unwell for the future. Michigan is extremely likely to feature one good OOC opponent like Notre Dame and then three miserable home games in the future all in the name of keeping up with the Joneses.
• There's nothing we can do. There's no way this is going to change. This is more depressing than the hockey team.

Meanwhile, Georgia partisans playing Western Carolina and the Troy Trojans of Troy (We're From Troy!) have the gall to criticize:

With a non-league slate consisting of defensively-challenged Notre Dame, an Oregon squad coming off of a six-loss campaign, and a M.A.C. school with a directional indicator in its nomenclature, the Wolverines had to go out and get Appalachian State? Was this what Jim Delany meant by "winning our way"?

Um, Oklahoma State was 89th in total defense and went 7-6 last year. Georgia Tech lost their Gailey-obligated five games as per usual. Glass houses, etc. Also, the implication that Michigan dodged a Vandy-level opponent...

Nevertheless, there is no excuse for a Division I-A power scheduling a Division I-AA team, and, at a time when Georgia is recruiting and scheduling nationally (despite the fact that the 'Dawgs cannot seem to get a game in the Midwest), this latest refusal by a Big Ten team to schedule a Southern squad even as mighty as Vanderbilt raises anew the question that has yet to be answered satisfactorily . . . what possible justification could the conference have for steadfastly refusing to face S.E.C. teams during the regular season?

... is simply not true:

Vanderbilt Vice Chancellor David Williams said the school has declined an opportunity to open the 2007 football season at Michigan.

The Commodores lost to the Wolverines 27-7 on Sept. 2, 2006. on a game nationally televised by ESPN. Williams said the network inquired about a rematch, but Vanderbilt chose to keep its 2007 schedule intact.

“I’m looking for a heck of a good year next year, and I just don’t want to spoil anything,” Williams told the Vanderbilt Hustler.

Distressingly, there were no Vandy-level opponents to be had.

Hurling imprecations back and forth over which school's embarrassing nonconference matchups are more blush-inducing solves nothing. Michigan and Georgia do not play not because either is afraid of the other, but rather because the current system is set up to wring every dime out of diehard fans. The Pac-10's notable lack of really dire OOC opponents (only one I-AA matchup across the conference) is less steadfast nobility and more a response to the West Coast's notoriously fickle/crappy fanbases.

This will be about the 30th time I've written this in an offseason that is just over a month old, but I don't see how this post can avoid it: despite the NCAA's enforced amateurism money is the name of the game. Even if the players aren't directly provided with the fruits of their labors, programs compete against each other on monetary grounds in the form of "facilities" -- these days less an accurate descriptor and more a euphemism for ridiculous edifices that imperial Romans would blanch at. Martin, like all ADs, is essentially paid to lie; his assertion that Michigan is in desperate need of the money is a lie... but not really. Crappy teams are now demanding return games because they have a I-AA option. Michigan cannot give these return games because the millions of dollars it would cost them would put them incrementally behind their competitors in the race to build the facilities best able to stun recruits into mute acceptance of proffered scholarships. Any school deviating from this path is voluntarily hampering its own program.

Appalachian State is inevitable in the current climate. Socialism is the only solution. Viva la revolucion.

Some Personal Business

No blogging tomorrow (Friday), as I will be @ Lake State for some skiing. Also there is a Michigan hockey game, so I'm totally being responsible and Michigan-related and stuff.

Unfortunately, the following scene isn't on YouTube.

George is talking with Wendy at the counter.

WENDY: (smiling) I'm sorry, I don't owe you anything. I had some personal business that day.

GEORGE: (irascible) Oh, I see. So your time is more valuable than mine. Is that it? You're a delicate genius!

Behind George, Elaine has slipped in the door.

WENDY: A delicate genius?

George spots Elaine.

GEORGE: Elaine?

ELAINE: (surprised) George!

George stalks past Elaine and exits.

GEORGE: (leaving) Hah. Good luck.

WENDY: What's going on?

ELAINE: (feeling her arm) Wendy, I injured my shoulder, Wednesday, when you dropped me off and I had to carry my skis, and my boots, and my poles and everything, all the way home. I'm, I'm having trouble lifting my arm.

Do you think you could give me some treatment?

WENDY: Oh sure. You have insurance, right?

ELAINE: (shocked) Insurance? You're charging me?

Behind Elaine, George is standing in the open door

GEORGE: Wednesday? That's your personal business?! (stalks over to the counter) Skiing?! (angry) So let people suffer, while you're shushing all over a mountain?

WENDY: How did you hear that?

GEORGE: I hear everything.

WENDY: I mean, why don't you two just take your business elsewhere, hmm?

ELAINE: Oh, huh huh, that is a good idea. C'mon George.

GEORGE: Yeah. Let's go.

Elaine and George, united, head for the door. AS they get there, Elaine turns to deliver her parting shot.

ELAINE: (pointedly) And you know, you might wanna do something aboutthat hair.

WENDY: Why, what's wrong with my hair?

ELAINE: Huh, I think it's a little old-fashioned. Don't you? (to receptionist) Uh, tell her.

RECEPTIONIST: She's right.

Creepy Smiley SEC Recruiting Guy

God, my recruiting class is so swollen.
No, really. It's huge.

The SEC recruiting dominance is at least partially fictional. Frequent and frequently abrasive commenter Meechigan Dan has a fledgling blog of his own with an interesting look at Michigan's recruiting over the past six years. While I don't necessarily agree with some of the conclusions, the numbers are compelling.

The upshot: lost in the frequent discussion of the SEC's shirtless recruit lockdown are the numbers 28 and 20. The former is the average number of recruits signed by SEC teams not named "Vanderbilt" this year (it's 27 if the Commodores are included); the latter is the average number of recruits signed by Big Ten teams this year. This goes a long way towards explaining the SEC's happy numbers.

Orson and I got into a somewhat heated discussion about this and the Jim Delaney thing. He contended that the Big Ten's retention/graduation rate was only marginally higher than the SEC's -- using what data I don't exactly know -- but it's clear that when you give a scholarship to someone, someone else loses one. It's a zero-sum game. The SEC's willingness to sign anyone who will put pen to paper no matter how dire their academic situation or general level of what we'll term "Willie-itis" leads to stuff like this:

Georgia plummets from 2nd to 7th when you factor out number of recruits because they always seem to have large classes [29, 25, 21, 19, 28, 23; ave: 24] as compared to, say Michigan [22, 17, 22, 23, 19, 20; ave: 20.5]. What’s up with that? How can Georgia have 22 more scholarships used over the last six years?).

That's an entire extra class of recruits that bombed out somewhere along the way; many of those never saw the field because they didn't qualify or couldn't remain eligible long enough to be useful. But recruiting rankings don't take this into account, nor do they acknowledge the opportunity cost of a scholarship (i.e., any recruit no matter how marginal boosts your score, favoring large classes over small) and so things like the SEC's uniformly giant classes get rewarded. In reality, it's like Enzyte: you really wish it was bigger but it just ain't.

Does this fully explain the gap? No. The only Big Ten schools on Dan's revised star-average top 20 over the past six years are Michigan and Ohio State, though there is a suggestion that only the top 11 really matter. There's a cliff after Tennessee at #11 and twelve through twenty -- PSU, ND, Auburn, 'Bama, Nebraska, A&M, UCLA, UVA, Maryland -- were more Music City Bowl than BCS with the exception of Auburn.

(Aside: evidently, once you get past a certain assurance point recruiting rankings become extremely poor predictors of performance. There are two primary reasons for this, IMO:

• The star system makes no distinction between the first four-star, a guy who's always one of the top 30 (Rivals) or 60 (Scout) recruits in the country, and the last, who usually hangs out somewhere around number 300. This despite the fact that the sites do have more detailed breakdowns of talent. Rivals ranks their four-stars from 5.9 to 5.7. I'd rather grab the #30 player in the country and a three-star than two low fours.
• The weightings are all off. A player like Ryan Mallet or Jimmah Clausen, the surest things available at the most important position on the field, is worth fractionally more than the aforementioned low-four star when he should be an order of magnitude more important. Take a look at 12-20 above: every one of those teams has had poor quarterback play for a large portion of the window, and the one that didn't had four years of totally shirtless Jason Campbell. (Quinn as a freshman/soph == bad). Certain positions should be more important than others, probably along the same lines as NFL draft rating: QB, DT, DE, CB, RB, OT, WR, LB, TE, S, G/C, K, P, and recruting services should emphasize their relative proficiency at the top of the board instead of their nebulous middle.

)

This is the long way of saying that the much discussed SEC bitchslap delivered by Jim Delaney in this line...

I wish we had six teams among the top 10 recruiting classes every year, but winning our way requires some discipline and restraint with the recruitment process.

...is just true. You cannot consistently sign 28 player classes without regularly discarding players before their time is up, and where do these guys go once you throw them overboard? I'm guessing the answer is not Harvard.

The fundamental issue is that the LOI provides no benefit to the kid. I don't understand why any top recruit would bother to sign one. If Pete Carroll takes the Chargers' job, all those recruits are locked into letters of intent they may not want to honor, but if one of those recruits fails to qualify the school can cut bait and move onto the next freaky stud freak. The school owes the player nothing; the player is an indentured servant of the university for at least two years. The solution: make that reciprocal. A signed letter of intent fills a scholarship slot for two years, no matter the recruit's playing status.

Or you can just keep throwing the rotten ones into the sea. You know, whatever, as long as you get to be the best conference in the history of the world.

For a summary of this post in stunning YouTube format with the SEC on the left and a prospective offensive lineman on the right: Don't click here.

MGoFAQ

Why?

I actually do get asked these questions, especially about the obscure terms, frequently.

Did you even go to Michigan?

Twice, receiving computer engineering degrees in 2001 and 2003. I am approximately 27, depending on how recently this has been updated.

Computer engineering?

Well... yeah. This might be an odd avocation for a guy who learned all about bits in college, but if it makes you feel better some friends and I founded the Every Three Weekly, a Michigan ripoff of the Onion that was actually fairly good for a few years there. I cannot vouch for their current competence because they stopped updating the website.

And, yes, now I'm a sportsblogger, which is a lot like being an engineer when it comes to impressing chicks except without the sizeable paycheck. For my next act, I plan on becoming something even less appealing to the opposite sex, like... uh... I actually can't think of anything. Dustin Diamond?

This is your job?

Yes! More precisely, this plus my duties at AOL's Fanhouse, are my jobs. Money comes from AOL in traditional fashion and from the blog in the form of merchandising, donations, and advertising. I'm also editing a Michigan annual due out this summer.

If you are looking for a freelance writer, I am available. Drop me an email.

Why should I donate?

The more money that MGoBlog actually generates, the more it becomes a viable long-term option for funding and the more time I can afford to put into it at some point down the road when the need to actually make money becomes important because I have squalling brats adorable children.

What's the deal with...

• "The New Math"? Nickname for Mario Manningham. Comes from post conveniently titled "The New Math" after the 2005 Penn State game. General implication is that 86 == 1 and Manningham is unpossible.
• "Unverified Voracity"? Voracity is a weird word to come after "unverified," especially when dealing with a sports blog and not, say, a blog about rumored hunger. The deal: back when the sporadic link-filled posts were untitled, some Iowa sportswriter penned what was to the the first in a long line of intemperate columns ragging on blogs for having the audacity to not be written by sportswriters. Unfortunately for that sportswriter, she inserted the following sentence:

  In the new "journalism of assertion," as the report calls it, information is offered with little time and little attempt to independently verify its voracity. [sic]

  Sarcasm being what it is, UV was born shortly after.
• "OMG Shirtless"? Sometime during the 2005 recruiting year I received a number of hits for "Tim Tebow shirtless." At that point Tebow was a heavily pursued quarterback recruit and not Chris Leak's china-destroying sidekick. I endeavored to help this lonely, lonely person but could only find a picture of Tebow in a basketball jersey. Thus was born the Shirt Scale of recruiting rankings; these days it's about 50-50 as to whether or not a panting reference to a five-star freakystud gets tagged as shirtless, depending on whim.
• "Tacopants"? Tacopants is Jason Avant's eleven-foot tall imaginary friend. Chad Henne spent much of 2005 hitting him between the numbers, which are unfortunately eight feet off the ground and made of dreams. Blessed with infinite eligibility and the ability to sneak on and off the field without alerting the referees -- made of dreams, remember -- Tacopants has taken a lesser role in the offense as Henne matures but still pops up at inopportune times. The term has its genesis in this post.
• "Manbearfreak"? Carson Butler. A commenter or two still refers to Butler as "manbearfreak" or "MBF," which was confusing even to me until I looked it up. A conflation of "Manbearpig" from South Park and "freak," generally used to describe any unusually athletic specimen who plays football. Appears exactly once in the vast and multifarious MGoBlog archives:

  Carson Butler. Manbearfreak.

What do all those abbreviations mean?

• Hennechart abbreviation explanations can be found here.
• YMRMFSPA: "You may remember me from such players as."
• NSFMF: "Not so fast, my friend."
• IANAJTTP: "I am not a journalist, that's the point."

Will you write a ripjob about X?

Maybe? I feel dirty after each one ("why can't I be more like John Hollinger? Why can't I be more like John Hollinger! Stupid, stupid, stupid!") and silently resolve never to write one again until the next time. What can I say? It's rageohol. Rageohol is gooooood. One general principle is that once I have eviscerated someone for excessive stupidity I institute a ban on further ripping unless something really egregious comes up. A partial list of these people:

• Tom Dienhart
• Matt Hayes
• Dennis Dodd
• Anyone associated with College Football News
• Drew Sharp
• Terry Foster
• Rob Parker
• Heismanpundit

Unless you've got something that cries out to be slaughtered I'll probably bite my tongue and pass.

How can I start up a blog and have it be successful?

(Yes, I do get asked that.)

Create something that does not exist elsewhere. As a nobody, you have to go above and beyond the normal stuff people can read every day in the newspaper or on other blogs. A picks column is a waste of time.

You can do this any number of ways. Johnny posts erratically and infrequently but since there's no one who writes quite like him he has a following. Vijay posts equally erratically and infrequently but drops a lot of original research and has a following. This blog's calling card, IMO, is UFR. What's inescapable is that unless you have some wild talent like Johnny, you will have to put in a lot of work. You will probably get discouraged or bored and quit, but if you don't you too can have a hitcount in the triple or even quadruple digits and forget what the sun looks like.

Current suggestions for Michigan fans:

• someone with an extensive video library of old Michigan games who splices together highlight reels and analysis on a regular basis.
• A blog that really focuses on basketball (hey, buy low, sell high)
• A truly obsessive recruiting blog.

Just make sure that whatever you're doing can reasonably be called the best whatever it is, and people who are interested in whatever will read you.

How can I express my deep and abiding fondness for MGoBlog?

There are not one but two Facebook groups you can join.

Certainly incomplete. Any suggestions for additions can be left in the comments.

Unverified Voracity Scores A Point Per Minute

Wait... is that bad in basketball?

Bedford verified. As noted on Signing Day, Vance Bedford is our once and future defensive backs coach:

Bedford, who coached the Wolverines' secondary for four seasons, including the 1997 co-national championship year, will coach the cornerbacks. He replaces Ron Lee , who spent one season at Michigan.

I think that "coach the cornerbacks" is erroneous and Bedford will be given responsibility for the entire secondary, but we'll have to see about that.

Toney Clemons to run fast. Our guru-approved WR recruit now shifts his focus towards his final high school track season. He's looking to bust the 110-meter hurdles state record held by Qadry Ismail:

"I could have had it last year at Mars, but I slowed down to celebrate at the finish line," Clemons said. "I should have just kept going full speed.

"I feel like I am way ahead of where I was last year at this time. I know I need a 13.9 to break the record."

Oh, it's on. The brewing Illinois-Notre Dame slapfight is sure to be entertaining, since Ron Zook is evidently a madman and Charlie Weis is incapable of offering a simple "no comment." Blue Gray Sky has a comprehensive slapfight recap for your edification. I can't wait for the next chapter.

It's not like he's wrong, but... Lester Abram on last night's game:

"Not being aware, not knowing the time on the clock, that's up to our guard to know the time and get everybody in line,'' Abram said, baffled. "Especially our point guards have to be more aware of what's going on during times like that. It was up to the guards, especially our point guard. He's the one handling the ball and with the ball in his hands. We've got to get in our offensive sets. I really don't know what else to say about that.''

I'm sure that will be good for team unity. Not even Amaker's players are bothering to hide their disgust with how poorly coached they are.

I don't know how reliable Terry Foster is, but a lot of other buzz confirms the general upshot of these horrifying few sentences:

I've got bad news. As it stands now Amaker will return as Michigan coach for the 2007-08 season no matter what. That is the word from the inside. Amaker will return to try to spin his latest recruiting class into something. There are a lot of folks who don't like it but they are not decision makers.

And before you fire arrows at Athletic Director Bill Martin, save it. It is not his call. This is from school president Mary Sue Coleman who loves the Amaker family and what it represents. [Utter failure? -ed.] She likes having him on campus and she likes the image he portrays.

You could send a huffy email to Mary Sue, but unless you have an awful lot of money it's unlikely to make any difference. There is one group that could apply some pressure: the Maize Rage. If they were to, say, all wear black t-shirts and observe in total silence as Michigan fumbled away games against Ohio State and Michigan State that would be obvious to television cameras, create some national attention, and potentially increase the pressure on the administration to fire the worst head coach ever in anything ever ever. It would entail being sort of a dick to the players, granted.

Etc.: Barry Larkin article; the Law Library is the #94th best building in the country; Yost Built on last weekend's return to reality for the Michgian hockey team.

Ten Things Tommy Amaker And Dean Smith Have In Common

At some point during last night's 6,102-0 loss to Michigan State, Steve Lavin compared Tommy Amaker's coaching style to that of Dean Smith. Naturally, this elicited a certain skepticism from anyone who has seen a Michigan basketball game in the last six years. But at MGoBlog we try to look beyond the conventional wisdom. Detailed research has revealed several similarities between Amaker and Dean Smith.

Without further ado, Ten Things Tommy Amaker And Dean Smith Have In Common:

• The operation of clean programs that graduate their players
  
• Notoriety in the ACC
• A fondness for apples
• Lack of participation in the War of 1812
  
• Limbs
• A powerful desire to sock Dick Vitale but good
• A coaching career dedicated to humiliating Duke
• A cutting-edge 1910 fashion sense
• Neither improve Michigan players
• Aaaand the same number of NCAA tournament bids over the last six years.

Steve Lavin knows what he's talking about, folks.

2007 Recruiting: Defensive Backs

Donovan Warren

Long Beach, California - 6'0" 175
		Scout	5*, #4 CB, #22 overall
		Rivals	5*, #3 CB, #25 overall
		ESPN	89, #8 CB, #86 overall
		Lemming	#5 CB, #73 overall
		Stupid Nickname	Savior
		YMRMFSPA	Leon Hall
Previously On MGoBlog	(Useless) Donovan Warren?
Notes	WOOOOOOOO; enormous Rivals article.

Finally: a big fish is in the boat and, unlike Jai Eugene, he's all contractually obligated and stuff. Warren went virtually unnoticed by all but the most wildly optimistic of Michigan recruitniks, as everything from insiders on both Scout and Rivals was a constant drumbeat: U-S-C. And who would dare go into noted Trojan stronghold Long Beach Poly as anything other than a waste of time?

Ron English, bitches! At the eleventh hour, rumblings to the effect that Warren was considering a second, unofficial visit came and went. This was good: he was interested enough to consider another flight out to Michigan just to confirm his feelings for the place. This was bad: he wasn't going to actually make the trip and would probably choose to stay at home. English sealed the deal anyway. English for God-Emperor.

The result? A polished, ready-to-go corner who spent four years starting at Long Beach Poly, seeing Cal star Desean Jackson and a top-100 2007 recruit every day in practice. The line on Ronald Johnson versus Warren was that Johnson was the better athlete, Warren the better corner. I'd take either, obviously, but if that's true than Warren is probably a better fit for a Michigan team that needs someone to step into the playing rotation now now now.

Guru Reliability: High. Small potential for USC-related overrating.
General Excitement Level: Wooo!
Projection: Marlin Jackson/Leon Hall path: nickelback quickly, starting by the end of his freshman year, gets expectations sky-high as a sophomore, and slightly disappoints.

Michael Williams

Ventura, California - 5'10" 181
		Scout	4*, #5 S
		Rivals	4*, #15 S, Rivals250
		ESPN	80, #10 S, #94 overall
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Brandon Harrison
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit article.
Notes	St. Bonaventure is the new home of totally shirtless 2008 RB Darrell Scott

English's other California catch, Williams was much less of a Christmas miracle. He was down to Notre Dame and Michigan very early in the recruiting year and it was a matter of tugging him away from a guaranteed disaster zone into what's merely a potential one.

Williams will come in as a "nickelback," which is evidently an entirely separate position in Ron English's scheme. Brandon Harrison is the current starter there, so Williams' duties will be to cover slot receivers and go on a lot of ineffective corner blitzes. Also he'll spur countless arguments about how tall he is (or is not). As you can see above, the guru services declared him a safety. There are still some questions about his ability to hang in man coverage against collegiate competition, though he showed well in the Army All-American game. Unlike a lot of this year's recruits Williams seems like a high floor/low ceiling type. He's usually lauded as a "flat out football player," a heady guy who is a solid tackler but may be somewhat lacking top-end athleticism. While he's unlikely to wash out he's equally unlikely to be an All-American or even all conference.

Guru Reliability: High. They saw plenty of him.
General Excitement Level: High-ish. He's the second-best secondary recruit we have and should be an early contributor, though one that people may mutter about.
Projection: No redshirt. Fairly high probability he starts as a sophomore when Jamar Adams graduates.

Troy Woolfolk

Sugarland, Texas - 5'11" 176
		Scout	3*, #44 CB
		Rivals	3*, #44 CB
		ESPN	73, #115 WR
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Morgan Trent
Previously On MGoBlog	Two camp commits.
Notes	Son of Butch Woolfolk

A project, Woolfolk can run really damn fast but will have to be molded into a defensive back. The Morgan Trent comparison above may be more apt than most: his success as a DB will hinge not on his ability to get up to top speed but rather his ability to change direction quickly. Trent's struggling with this, which is not entirely unexpected given his lanky physique and long strides. Perhaps some good news on this front:

He participated in a Michigan camp last summer after which the senior Woolfolk said, "(Head coach) Lloyd Carr told me Troy had about the quickest feet he'd ever seen and he'd offered him a scholarship on the spot. It took me sort of by surprise. I didn't think he'd be interested in coming up north. And, selfishly, I'd sort of hoped he'd stay in Texas so I could see him play more easily."

(Also:

At least Troy isn't considering Ohio State.

"We got a letter from them," Butch said, "but we burned it."

Niiiice.)

The timing of Woolfolk's offer -- at camp, when it was widely assumed that Michigan would be hauling in both Ronald Johnson and Dionte Allen -- is a positive. Michigan was not in scramble mode, had a wide array of potential defensive backs to choose from, and has a history of wise camp offers. But there's no reasonable argument the gurus missed him and the other schools in pursuit (Nebraska, TCU) don't help matters. He is what he is: a hit-or-miss type of guy.

Guru Reliability: High.
General Excitement Level: Meh. Obviously one of those high ceiling/low floor types,
Projection: Redshirt, spends a year or two merely observing behind Warren, Sears, etc., may get in a year or two of starting depending on how well he comes along.

Artis Chambers

Fort Wayne, Indiana - 6'2" 185
		Scout	3*, #34 CB
		Rivals	3*, #41 S
		ESPN	78, #25 S
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname
		YMRMFSPA	Brandent Engelmon
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit note; RBUAS does it in style
Notes	Enjoys chicken, golf.

An Indiana safety who actually understands what the meaning of the word "commitment" is. [Not bitter, not creepy, not bitter, not creepy... damn.] Chambers was a commit way back in the day, Michigan's second after fullback Vince Helmuth. He spent most of his career at Snider playing quarterback and -- with Michael Williams -- should be filed under "tortoise" if we're dividing Michigan secondary recruits into groups based on boom/bust potential (other groups: "Hare," consisting of Woolfolk and Rogers, and "WOOOOO," consisting of Donovan Warren). ESPN's negatives on Chambers (who they like better than Rivals/Scout, ranking him just outside their top 150):

Lacks bulk and consistent power at the point of attack. Has adequate speed, but is not a burner. Lacks explosive quickness to stay with top receivers in coverage.

So there you go. Though Joe Tiller was evidently impressed...

[When asked about players who "got away"] Tiller said Purdue's staff was most impressed by Fort Wayne Snider defensive back Artis Chambers, who signed with Michigan.

...his coach's description of him is telling:

"He's a rock-solid guy, he's a hard worker,'' Russ Isaacs said. "He'll pay his dues in the weight room and he loves to compete.''

But, hey, at least he's not a flake.

Guru Reliability: Moderate. Position switch, early commit.
General Excitement Level: Moderate. Should be decent, unlikely to be a star.
Projection: 50-50 on a redshirt. With few safeties in the pipeline ahead of him (just Steve Brown now that Jonas Mouton is a WLB), is likely to get a lot of playing time over the course of his career.

James Rogers

Madison Heights, Michigan - 6'2" 165
		Scout	4*, #17 S
		Rivals	3*, #68 ATH
		ESPN	74, #99 WR
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Remember that one time David Terrell played corner?
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit note.
Notes	High school RB. Nice article.

A camp commitment, Rogers was expected to switch positions when he came in... except he was supposed to switch to wide receiver. His performance at Michigan's summer camp, where he caught everything thrown his way and blew the doors off more highly touted Taurian Washington, garnered an offer and a commit. In the aftermath Michigan displayed a hesitancy to extend a full offer to Washington or put a hold on a previously existing offer or temporarily withdrew his offer or whatever; there was a Michigan-Washington falling out and he ended up at Ohio State. This was widely accepted since Rogers kicked his ass. As Michigan had the opportunity to look at these guys in more detail than recruiting services, hey, this is a kid to get excited about.

Then Rogers announced the coaches were bringing him in as a cornerback. Um... okay. Given Toney Clemons, Junior Hemingway, and the gaping void that is the cornerback position, someone moving makes sense, but it was widely assumed that Californian Zion Babb would be the guy, since he isn't 6'2" and approximately 12 pounds. The upshot is the constant refrain of the class: Rogers could be a star or he could be a scrub.

Guru Reliability: Low.
General Excitement Level: Moderate? I was fonder of him at wide receiver.
Projection: Yet another boom-or-bust type of guy. Guaranteed redshirt, spends a year struggling at corner before moving back to wide receiver.

2007 Recruiting: Linebackers

Austin Panter

El Dorado, Kansas - 6'4" 240
		Scout	4*
		Rivals	4*, #18 JUCO
		ESPN	NR
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	Anything But Powers
		YMRMFSPA	No Idea
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit note.
Notes	Please, no "shagadelic" references.

Panter, Michigan's first JUCO since Russell Shaw in the late 90s, has three years to play two. As an early enrollee and a highly rated player at a position Michigan is thin at he is not going to redshirt. He'll compete with Johnny Thompson for the privilege of being unfavorably compared to David Harris for two years.

Will he win said competition? Hard to project. Thompson showed a lot of potential in his half-game audition at WLB versus Iowa in 2005 and JUCOs can be wildly variable in their talents. FWIW, his coach was over the moon for him:

"Well, I coached Rudy Johnson who is with the Bengals right now (starting RB, and a first round draft pick). I coached both of Auburn's starting cornerbacks, David Irons and Jon Wilhite. I've got starters at Nebraska, Arizona State and Florida State."

"Austin is tops with all those guys."

Clunky grammar aside, that's high praise. Also high praise: Panter was the national JUCO defensive player of the year. So he's got like the defensive JUCO Heisman. Yeah!

Unfortunately, JUCO D Heisman has been about as good an indicator of future success as Actual Stupid Heisman:

• Johnathan Batson played in two games for Texas A&M. (He has a year of eligibility left.)
  
• Mickey Pimental was a useful starter at linebacker for Cal.
• Larry Kendrick was a little-used RB/WR for Ole Miss and now rocks the Arena League.
• Jamaal Jackson evidently did little at Texas Tech.
• Randy Jackson was a bit player at South Carolina.
• Dustin Looman ended up at D-II Winona State.

Proceed with caution.

Guru Reliability: Low, as only Rivals and Scout bother to rank JUCOs and place them on entirely different scales than high school players.
General Excitement Level: Majorly harshed by a trip down JUCO D Heisman memory lane but still high.
Projection: Platoons with Thompson early in the year and wins the job.

Marell Evans

Richmond, Virginia - 6'2" 204
		Scout	3*, #29 WLB
		Rivals	2*
		ESPN	70, #89 S
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Larry Foote(?)
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit note.
Notes	Varina HS (Brandon Minor)

Gurus hate Marell Evans and there is no senior-year injury or academic suspension or alien abduction that could reasonably explain his low standing in their eyes. This is despite Evans starring for Virginia powerhouse Varina, the former home of Hart heir apparent Brandon Minor and a school that's heavily recruited by D-I programs every year. As a junior Evans started and was all-region; as a senior he was one of the main pieces of Varina's defense. Still, at the time of his commitment Evans had offers from the likes of Temple and Buffalo. There's no wiggle room here: if you believe guru rankings mean anything, Evans is going to have a hard time seeing the field at Michigan.

Mitigating factors: Michigan, having an in with the Varina staff in the person of Brandon Minor, may have been privy to some information others didn't have; Evans projects at OLB instead of safety at the college level and evidently got bigger over the course of the year; Virginia Tech and Clemson were evidently "interested," for whatever that means.

A final, positive note from The Sabre:

Defensively, one player I’m very anxious to see develop in the coming years is Michigan linebacker recruit Marell Evans. The 6-3, 205-pound Varina standout plays with fire and shows terrific closing speed and playmaking ability. In my opinion, the in-state programs could regret not getting in on this kid.

The Sabre then proceeds to rank him 23rd in the state, but there you go.

Guru Reliability: High, especially when his offers were similarly meh.
General Excitement Level: Evans is the member of this class least likely to see serious playing time.
Projection: Hate to dismiss a guy's career before it's begun; also hate to go against Michigan's history of digging up diamonds in the rough; still going to do it.

Brandon Herron

Sugarland, Texas - 6'2" 198
		Scout	4*, #18 SLB
		Rivals	3*
		ESPN	77, #23 OLB
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Larry Foote
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit article.
Notes	Teammate of Troy Woolfolk

Yes, it's Larry Foote Comparison Mania at MGoBlog, but who else do you go to when an outside linebacker is described as frighteningly athletic but raw? As it is for Evans, it's moreso for Herron, a combine freak who played as a drastically undersized defensive end (6'2", 200 pounds) for Dulles. Evidence of combine goodness:

[North Texas recruit] Bron Hager went to a Rivals.com combine event in College Station on April 22 and posted a 40-yard dash time of 5.02 seconds, which ranked 24th out of the 27 linebackers at the combine.

Brandon Herron of Fort Bend Dulles ran a 4.55 40-yard dash to finish second, but he is also the 20th ranked outside linebacker in the nation and a Michigan recruit. Hager had some tough competition.

That's an impressive electronically-timed 40. Exhibits B and C and etc. are collected in Herron's commit article.

Herron was a soft verbal to Nebraska early in the year, but there was some miscommunication or one party backed off or whatever -- recruiting! -- and he opened his recruitment back up, which is when Michigan got involved. The timing implies that they were scouting around for some plan-B types after striking out on their primary targets, and Herron fits the bill: as Jim Stefani would say, a low-floor high-ceiling type.

(Side note: Herron may be a loose cannon who fires off one or two fantastic quotes to the media before being permanently muzzled by Carr & Co. Witness his description of Texas Tech as "a box surrounded by dirt" in a Rivals article.)

Guru Reliability: Low. Position switch and combine numbers make him hard to peg. A real boom-or-bust type.
General Excitement Level: Ask me in two years.
Projection: Obvious redshirt. (Carr on Herron:

“He needs to develop size-wise, but he’s an outstanding athlete. He’s going to need a year to develop his strength, but Steve Szabo really liked his athleticism.”

) From there it's anyone's guess.

Unverified Voracity Is On The Ceiling

Big Ten Network hardball. Yeah, if this Big Ten Network thing doesn't get picked up on the main tier of cable channels across the Midwest there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans, since existing syndications deals are going away:

The newly formed Big Ten Network has informed WXSP and other over-the-air stations around the state not to bother bidding for the league's telecast package. It will instead start to hoard most of those events for itself, beginning in the fall, when the conference launches its new digital channel on cable and satellite systems.

Hopefully this is not ESPNU redux, shunting previously accessible games into a DirectTV ghetto that no one cares to bother with.

Did I link this story just to highlight the worst haircut in the history of the universe?


Maybe.

Critical news for 2007! Make sure you rush over to GBW and read all about it:

Michigan grabs a top long-snapper for its 2007 recruiting class.

It's chest-bump time.

THE APOCALYPSE IS UPON US. AAAAAAAAHHHHHHH... AAAAAAHHH...

Mark Wilkins refereed Michigan State’s 5-1 win over host Nebraska-Omaha on Friday. It was the first college hockey game with zero penalties since Lake Superior State beat Notre Dame, 3-0, on March 5, 2004.

Wilkins did that game, too. But it’s just a coincidence, he says.

I know this, like, happened a week ago, but still. Expect brimstone meteors any time now.

(WCH hates the PWR too.)

Various recruit signing articles: Donovan Warren in USA Today; Mallett in the Texarkana Gazette. An interesting one on Avery Horn in the Hanford Chronicle. Evidently, the idea of a "commitment" is as foreign to Pac-10 coaches as it is to Jerimy Finch (oh, snap!):

"He's still certainly a hot commodity," Hanford athletic director Beau Hill said. "He declared to Michigan early on to alleviate some of that pressure, but the recruiters kept calling. Those guys can be pretty persistent."

Also of note: he doesn't expect to redshirt (grumble grumble: he's at best the fourth option, and that's only if Carlos Brown ends up in the secondary, something that's but an ephemeral rumor at the moment). The qualities that made him a major recruit:

"He's fast, fast, fast and really, really fast," Hill said. "He has very elusive speed and he can change directions in a hurry. If you sit back and watch him on the field when he plays, his football speed is so much greater than every one around him. It looks like the other player's feet are stuck in mud."

Insert south-to-north joke here, except he's from Fresno so he's probably already north of the Mason-Dixon line (or at least a hypothetical extension of it from coast to coast).

Artis Chambers is already on campus, so his signing day was uneventful.

Woo. Jim Stefani has a huge post on his blog taking a look at the Michigan recruiting class from another angle:

The recruiting rating universe is “star-centric” and a prospect is typecast as either a 5-star, 4-star, 3-star, etc. In my opinion, assessing a prospect is a lot more complicated than that and what I have tried to do is come up with a different paradigm in identifying the potential of a prospect.

When I look at players I try to determinewhat sort of ceilings and floors they have. By that I mean what is their upside and what is their downside. Nothing novel in that concept, as players are often referred to as being high ceiling types.

Michigan-related upshot:

This years class, although lacking in five and four stars, has more than its fair share of High ceiling/Low floor types. THAT is what I REALLY like about this class. Some of these kids will not pan out, but others will emerge as NFL type talents.

I would RTWT if you're interested. Varsity Blue has also picked up on the ceiling/floor thing and has attempted to quantify each recruit on a five-point scale.

Etc.: Entertaining collection of recruiting stories from Ivan Maisel; Larry Lage revisits the Fab Five.

2007 Recruiting: Defensive Line

Ryan Van Bergen

Whitehall, Michigan - 6'5" 260
		Scout	4*, #8 DE, #51 overall
		Rivals	4*, #18 SDE, Rivals250
		ESPN	78, #13 TE(?)
		Lemming	#24 DT(?)
		Stupid Nickname	R-V-B
		YMRMFSPA	Glen Steele
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit article.
Notes

Van Bergen seems to be flying under the radar a bit. In a normal year in Michigan, he would be the second or third best prospect and would receive the modicum of hype due him -- he's almost a Scout five star(!). This year, not so much. He's still on most in-state top ten lists (obviously); Tom Markowski of the News ranks him sixth and claims he had "361/27" sacks, oddly. That's 13.3703703070... etc. for those not inclined to divide in their heads. Also likely to be a typo unless Markowski is really into surprise math. A Muskegon Chronicle article from before the year cites fairly improbable numbers: 6'5", 265, a 320 pound bench, a 4.89 despite being that very large guy.

Unfortunately, Van Bergen's senior year stats are a bit disappointing: 33 tackles and 11 for loss, presumably with far fewer sacks than 361/27. (There were also around 20 catches as a TE.) Van Bergen's production is at odds with this potential according to the gurus and is perhaps a sign he'll redshirt.

Guru Reliability: High.
General Excitement Level: Fairly high. Everyone mentions that excellent size-speed ratio and I buy it.
Projection: Van Bergen's stuck behind a lot of high-profile young bodies at DE (sophomores Brandon Graham, Adam Patterson, Eugene Germany, and junior Tim Jamison) and will struggle to get early playing time, but should be a contributor down the road at either DE or DT.

Renaldo Sagesse

Montreal, Quebec - 6'4" 320
		Scout	2*, NR
		Rivals	3*, #34 DT
		ESPN	NR
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	Cheese Eating Death Monkey
		YMRMFSPA	Terrance Taylor(?)
Previously On MGoBlog	Oui Oui It's A DT
Notes	Digs our installations

Hopefully Sagesse turns out to be a more important player than previous Canadian defensive line prospects like Emmanuel Casseus and Alain Kashama, because the opportunity to grunt Frenchily and say "sacre bleu" on a stuffed third and short seems an appealing way to while away the next four years of Saturday afternoons. Can anyone reliably project whether he will be or not? No. The video I've seen of him is dominating, but he's playing high school football in Quebec. He is literally twice the size of most of the kids he tackles and blocking him is complete futility. This is necessary but not sufficient for a proof of his competence at an entirely new level of competition.

Sagesse, being Canadian, has an interesting lack of physical upside -- already 20 -- and surplus of technique upside -- he's Canadian. If it turns out he can't hack it physically soon after getting to campus he'll never do so. And even if he does he still has to adapt to playing against players who he can't just eat. Casseus couldn't hack it; Kashama couldn't pick up the technique. I won't bother to guess whether or not Sagesse can do both.

Guru Reliability: None. Canada.
General Excitement: I haven't a damn clue.
Projection: Obvious redshirt, and from there who knows? Not likely to see the field in front of Slocum or a guy like James McKinney and will have to wait his turn. Kind of doubt he ever makes an impact, just from previous experience with Canadians.

Marques Slocum

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania - 6'5" 310
		Scout	5*, #5 DT, top 50
		Rivals	4*, #1G, #37 overall
		ESPN	N/A
		Lemming	#78 overall, #6 G
		Stupid Nickname	Moses
		YMRMFSPA	Gabe Watson
Previously On MGoBlog	2005 recruiting summary.
Notes	Has been in school since last January but will not be eligible for spring practice

After two years of wandering in the desert Marques Slocum will finally see a Michigan practice field this fall. If his motor is anything like his academic persistence, you can change that "Gabe Watson" into "Alan Branch," but we'll have to wait and see on that.

Before Slocum was cursed to scour the land high and low for a qualifying test score, he was a totally shirtless recruit. You can check the recruiting summary from way back in 2005 if you don't believe me. At that point he was ranked in the top 100 by Lemming, Scout, and Rivals (ESPN was Lemming at that point). He must have risen a bit after a dominating All-American game, as his current profile on Scout shows him with five stars, meaning he was in the top fifty at some later point. Back in the day it was chic to compare him to Gabe Watson, but that was before Watson ended up being a moderate disappointment. (I still content he was a very good player despite the whole teddy bear thing.)

If his performance in the '05 Army Bowl is any indication of his talent -- he was one of those
guys who leaps off the screen, Watson should be the bare minimum with Branch the upside. Those rankings two years ago were for the rare combination of size and agility that all highly rated defensive tackles display. Is he rusty after a year with no football? Yes. Is he in shape? Probably not. Can we expect much this year? Probably not. Down the road, though...

Guru Reliability: High, with the rust caveat.
General Excitement Level: Sky-high. Slocum was one of my favorite recruits from a couple years ago and finally seeing him on the field will be rewarding.
Projection: Unlikely to redshirt -- he's already 20 or so -- but also unlikely to make much of an impression early. Hopefully he can work his way into the DT rotation by midseason. Should be a two-year starter after the Johnson/Taylor duo graduates.

Side note: weird that Michigan is bringing in two twenty-year-old DTs.

Unverified Voracity Hockey Hockey Hockey

The Ann Arbor News notes that Michigan is tied for the national lead in shorthanded goals... and the national lead in shorthanded goals against. Ever-chipper David Rohlfs says it's a feature, not a bug:

"It makes every single power play or penalty kill exciting,'' said senior David Rohlfs, who has two short-handed goals. "You never know what's going to happen. You just have to work your hardest or you know what's going to happen.''

David, if the NHL doesn't work out there's always Microsoft PR.

Meanwhile, Chris Summers and Tim Cook are trading places this weekend. Cook will slide back to D while Summers takes a shift on the Cogliano-Kolarik line. Summers spent the second half of Michigan's Saturday game against Western Michigan on the third line in a move that was supposedly spurred by an injury to Brian Lebler. While I don't doubt the authenticity of Lebler's injury, I've gone "AAAARRGGGHH SUMMERS" too much this year to not suspect something was up. Summers had two heinous decisions that led to WMU scoring opportunities early in the game and IMO Red decided that he had seen enough for now.

I'm a fan of the move. Cook was dead weight as a forward and was better than Summers on D as a junior (and when he played it this year). With three guys graduating and Jack a major flight risk, it made sense to get Kampfer and Summers as much experience as possible on the blue line this year even if they weren't doing a very good job of it. As the season comes down to crunch time, however, it's time to try something else in an effort to cut down on Michigan's copious goals against. Also, Summers will be a better forward than Cook simply because of his skating. If he meshes with the second line, Michigan will regain the depth they lost when Jason Bailey bailed at midseason.

Side note: Kampfer's been getting about every other shift at the point on the second power play, something I dearly wish to continue. He's a major upgrade over Mitera, IMO.

Etc.: AA News on freshmen; Daily on BG (televised on Comcast local tonight); Hensick diary on CCHA.com

2007 Recruiting: TE and OL

Martell Webb

Pontiac, Michigan - 6'5" 210
		Scout	4*, #17 TE
		Rivals	4*, #29 WR
		ESPN	77, #56 WR
		Lemming	#3 TE, #34 overall
		Stupid Nickname	Spiderman. HA!
		YMRMFSPA	Carson Butler
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit article.
Notes

Obviously, widespread disagreement from the gurus here. Lemming falls all over him, ranking him the top player in Michigan and amongst the top 50 recruits in the country. Scout and Rivals say he's a solid prospect, but no star, and ESPN is pretty meh. Like Michigan TE recruits Carson Butler and Quintin Woods before him, Webb was known more as a basketball player than a football player before Michigan offered him way early -- Junior day -- and got a commitment from him.

Webb's publicly stated many times that he's coming in at wide receiver, but given the relative depth charts at WR and TE, the MGoBlue.com class announcement (which has him at TE), and his overall hugeness, the safe bet is that Webb ends up at tight end. Functionally, the differences in the position are minimal with Michigan's extreme focus on WR blocking.

Guru Reliability: Mediocre? They disagree so much, though the average appears to be Fairly Good.
General Excitement Level: High. Michigan has proven over the years that they're extremely adept at identifying two to four in-state prospects per year who will significantly outperform their guru rankings. Webb was on track to be one of those guys this year, but uncooperative gurus actually shoved them fairly high up their lists. Early offer == great success.
Projection: Hopefully redshirts at WR this year, realizes this whole Manningham-Arrington-Mathews-Hemingway-Clemons thing is way more intimidating than Butler-Massey-nobody and starts looking like Butler apparent in 2008.

Steve Watson

Denver, Colorado - 6'4" 240
		Scout	4*, #15 TE
		Rivals	3*, #19 TE
		ESPN	74, #35 TE
		Lemming	#9 TE
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Aaron Shea
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit article
Notes	Son of former Bronco WR Steve Watson

Watson should be polished but uninspiring if the gurus are right. The son of a former NFL player and current NFL coach, Watson is a big guy well proportioned for the TE spot but unlikely to have the sort of athleticism that Webb or Butler does. When ESPN got around to ranking him they constantly referenced his lack of speed, finishing with:

Watson should be able to contribute as a receiver and blocker in college, but he will earn his spot with his blocking. He has to make some improvements to his technique, but should be a big and productive blocking presence for an offense.

I found precious little on him when he committed, though he did have a respectable set of Pac-10 offers. Late in the recruiting year he took a visit to Minnesota, as their new coach Tim Brewster's son was the Mullen QB, but stuck with Michigan.

Of note: rumors that Watson may be moved to guard have been batted around for the past couple months. Something to keep an eye on.

Guru Reliability: High.
General Excitement Level: Meh.
Projection: Never starts, but with he TE-mad offense we're running now is likely to see significant playing time.

Mark Huyge

Grand Rapids, Michigan - 6'6" 275
		Scout	2*, #34 C(?)
		Rivals	3*, #65 OT
		ESPN	68, #149 OT(!)
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	Huge. Ha.
		YMRMFSPA	Go Figure
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit notice
Notes	Will block your face.

Well... this one will be short. Mark Huyge was Michigan's second and last OL commit this year and was clearly some sort of backup plan. The other schools recruiting were exclusively of the in-state MAC variety and no recruiting service bothers to mention him at all. The timing of his offer was such that it was clear Michigan was waiting on senior year film, and then waiting on tea leaves from various higher profile recruits before deciding to offer. They did, he accepted, OL recruiting done.

Caveat: offensive line is the position most prone to wild guru inaccuracy. While the sites seem to get the top-end guys pegged pretty well (Alex Boone, Andre Smith, Schilling and Boren), once they get down past the obviously huge and nimble there's so much projection going on that it's a real crapshoot. Huyge may be less likely to contribute than your typical low-four star, but the gap isn't nearly as wide as it might be for a position like corner.

Guru Reliability: Low. Obscure OL and all that.
General Excitement Level: Similarly low.
Projection: Dunno. Seems stuck behind a probable four-year starter in Schilling and then the Zirbel/Ortmann/Dorrestein trio in front of him. Unlikely to ever play extensively.

David Molk

Lemont, Illinois - 6'1" 270
		Scout	4*, #3 C
		Rivals	3*, #5 C
		ESPN	78, #6 C
		Lemming	#10 G/C
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Dave Pearson
Previously On MGoBlog	Commit article.
Notes	Thinks ND is smelly.

Molk is small for an offensive lineman at just 6'1", but the impression the recruiting sites give is that he has all the other attributes you look for in an offensive lineman: intelligence, the proverbial "nastiness," strength. Granted, this is like saying "except for his inability to catch anything, Matt Trannon is an excellent receiver," but if he can get big enough to maintain the POA on the college level he could be a long term starter at center, the only place a guy his size can conceivably play in college.

Scout liked him far better than Rivals. Molk was a member of their top 100 early in the season; when he dropped out he didn't go far, retaining a fourth star and a high positional rating. That '78' bestowed by ESPN roughly corresponds to a mid-four on Scout/Rivals. Lemming is in agreement (Illinois bias alert, though), as he throws all the interior linemen into one pool and fishes Molk out tenth. So everyone other than Rivals has him in the same ballpark.

It seems simple: if Molk can get strong enough he has the other attributes to be a steady collegiate starter, though not a star, and could start for multiple years before being summarily ignored by the NFL.

Guru Reliability: Good. Molk has a clear physical issue that limits his potential but everything else appears to be there.
General Excitment Level: Good pickup and a fine member of an OL class that he's the third best player in. Unfortunately, we don't have that OL class.
Projection: 60% to start a couple years.

Death to the CCHA

Time to realign. Wayne State, currently a member of the five-team CHA, has made an official application to join the CCHA:

“We have officially made a proposal to join the league for the 2008-09 season and sent a letter of application,” said coach Bill Wilkinson. “We have not gotten any reaction or been given a timetable, but I expect it will be on the agenda for the spring meetings in Florida — at least I hope so. I don’t expect anything until then."

This is a precarious time for college hockey, as a wave of expansion that spawned a couple extra conferences and a larger NCAA tournament now teeters on the brink of dissolution. CHA teams keep popping up and folding, popping up and folding. Air Force recently bolted for Atlantic Hockey, where they get more guaranteed home games and compete against Army, dragging the CHA's membership under the minimum of six required to maintain a tournament autobid. They've managed to maintain it thanks to some rules hijinks facilitated by the college hockey powers that be, but that extension is a short-lived one.

The problem: the west sports two major conferences, neither of which wants to expand. Teams considering adding a D-I hockey program are given the unappealing prospect of going independent -- virtual suicide in the current landscape of megaconferences and sparse inter-regional play -- or joining the CHA, an unstable league with exactly zero name power. To grow the sport someone's going to have to sacrifice, but whenever you consider busting the WCHA up along a Minnesota-UW/UND-CC-DU axis, the WCHA fans start threatening to throw themselves off a bridge. The only real alternative appears to be a CCHA split, which I'm fine with. I care about exactly one rival: Michigan State. Splitting the CCHA like so...

Michigan-ish	Not Michigan-ish
Michigan	OSU
MSU	Miami
Ferris	ND
Western	BG
Northern	UNO
UAF	Niagara
Wayne	UAH
LSSU

(CHA leftovers Robert Morris and Bemjidi are hereby remanded into the custody of the WCHA and ECAC/HE.)

...would create two conferences of reasonable strength now that Miami has a new arena and ND has Jeff Jackson, open up attractive places for teams like Penn State, Iowa State, and Syracuse to go, and finally allow some interesting nonconference games. Keeping the CHA teams around is key to maintaining the 16-team tournament.

PS: Week-old Johnson article.

2007 Recruiting: Wide Receiver

Toney Clemons

New Kensington, Pennsylvania - 6'2" 190
		Scout	4*, #10 WR, #67 overall
		Rivals	4*, #12 WR, #91 overall
		ESPN	78, #43 WR
		Lemming	#18 WR
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Braylon Edwards
Previously On MGoBlog	Giant highlight reel; commitment googlestalk
Notes	Steve Breaston's cousin, further proving that all high-end recruits from Western PA are part one one enormous family.

Early in the recruiting year, Clemons was pumped up as by far the best prospect in Pennsylvania. He visited a few combines and crushed them, leaping and running his way into the hearts of hopeful recruitniks across the Midwest. But offers hardly came. For a long time Clemons was sitting on scholarships from Pitt, Akron, Ole Miss, and UConn despite getting all that pub. Grades? Guru miss? High school coaches late with film? Who knows?

When hype solidified into actual rankings around midsummer, Clemons was well-regarded by Scout and Rivals but not the sort of elite, five-star type it seemed he would be. His senior year didn't help matters. Playing in a run-oriented offense lacking the sort of quarterback who could use Clemons' skills, his numbers dropped. He finished the year with fewer than two dozen catches and close observers of Pennsylvania talent dropped him down their boards -- though it should be noted there's certainly a sour grapes effect in play. Yet Clemons somehow ended up on the year-end top 100 lists of both Scout and Rivals despite that messy senior year, completing a weird inversion. At the start of the year, local sources were in love with his potential and soured while national guys were more hesitant. By the end, the national guys had thrown him into their top 100 lists after his disappointing senior year.

So: we have an athletic marvel, a lanky leaper who was winning statewide track meets as a sophomore (and again as a junior)but never managed to apply that athleticism on the football field. A boom-or-bust recruit who could be all the good things about Braylon Edwards or all the bad things or a mixture of the two.

Guru Reliability: Low. The senior year stats can be excused but the weird disconnect between general hype and his offers is something of a concern.
General Excitement Level: Manic-depressive here, but leaning towards excitement. Clemons may be raw but he's also in possession of rare physical attributes.
Projection: Raw as hell, probable redshirt with Hemingway and Babb seemingly ready to see the field ASAP. Also would be nice to get him another year away from the MM/AA duo o' destruction.

Junior Hemingway

Conway, South Carolina - 6'2" 205
		Scout	4*, #26 WR
		Rivals	3*, #38 WR
		ESPN	84, #4 WR, #19 overall
		Lemming	#16 WR
		Stupid Nickname	Ernest
		YMRMFSPA	Marquise Walker
Previously On MGoBlog	Michigan Shoots Into Hemingway's Heart
Notes	Writes without commas or adjectives.

So, yeah... those numbers above disagree fiercely. Hemingway is either in the top 10, 20, 30, or 40 receivers in the country, depending on who you listen to. Rivals went so far as to downgrade him to a three-star after season's end for reasons unknown (read: plain old provincialism on the part of that particular region's rankings guru). Meanwhile, ESPN is freakin' out over here. Scout and Creepy Tom Lemming split the difference.

Leaving aside his exact proportions of shirtlessness for the moment, Hemingway is a leaper capable of ridiculous grabs. His overall athleticism has been questioned by those skeptical of his talent, but no one debates his body control, leaping ability, and hands. It seems at the very least we can expect some sort of Avant/Walker hybrid, though hopefully without Walker's unfortunate spate of senior-year drops.

I can't find Hemingway's senior stats (little help?) but do know that they were in the range of 70-ish catches and 1200-ish yards despite being bracketed nearly constantly -- whenever I read an article on Conway High their head coach brought it up, seemingly unprompted. That coach took every opportunity to plug Hemingway as the best player he's ever had at any position in 25 years of coaching Peyton Manning, Dick Butkus, and Jesus. Couple that with Hemingway's bevy of early, panting offers from a wide array of high-profile programs and IMO Hemingway, not Clemons, is the best incoming WR prospect for Michigan this year.

Guru Reliability: Very low. Michigan and a host of other big-time schools were on Hemingway early on. His senior year production does nothing to bring his previous hype into question, and his downgrades came mostly after he finished dragging his team to the state final.
General Excitement Level: Avant++. Avant++.
Projection: Does not redshirt but I find this less than annoying because we need to spread out all these receivers over a few classes. Hemingway is the most polished and ready to step in. I doubt he sees much action with Manningham and Arrington in front of him, but candidate 1A to be Michigan's go-to guy in '09.

Zion Babb

Alhambra, California - 6'0" 177
		Scout	4*, #55 WR
		Rivals	3*, #42 WR, #48 CA
		ESPN	78, #34 WR
		Lemming	#12 CB
		Stupid Nickname	Protocol
		YMRMFSPA	Ron Bellamy
Previously On MGoBlog	(actually Fanhouse) Commit article.
Notes	Plays for the Alhambra Moors(!!!).

Another recruit that may eventually find himself on the other side of the ball, Babb was widely projected as a defensive back when he committed. Hemingway, Clemons, and Rogers were already in the fold, Michigan needed defensive backs like Bobby Shaftoe needs morphine, and Babb was evidently not near the caliber of the former two. This is not the case, at least not yet. Babb will come in as a wide receiver.

Like fellow California commit Avery Horn, Babb had offers from Nebraska and most of the Pac-10 save Cal and USC. A track guy, he's a slant-and-go type a little bit like Breaston but not nearly as far down that particular axis of little fast bastard who can't catch.

Update: When Babb committed ESPN hadn't ranked him yet. They've done so now, calling him a "real horse of a prospect" (uh... thanks?) and, uh...

He reminds us of a west coast version of Junior Hemingway.

Then they describe his "adequate elusiveness" and "deceptive speed" before returning to the horse thing:

Overall, Babb is good looking on the hoof and very productive.

Enumclaw man?

Guru Reliability: Strong. No reason to believe that Babb is anything other than an average recruit.
General Excitement Level: Looking forward to reading about Johnny's tortured relationship with Babb, not expecting magic on the field.
Projection: Designated reverse guy.

Carr Signing Day Presser Notes

Gone Gone Gone. Ryan Mundy, Will Paul, and Marques Walton will not be back next year. Mundy had been reported here earlier. Paul, a fifth-year senior who bounced around the DL and FB, was the subject of frequent unsupported rumors as to his demise. Walton, a two-star from a couple years ago, had two more years of eligibility but evidently was never going to see the field.

Hello. Marques Slocum's epic journey has finally reached a successful conclusion. If you search in the dusty corners of your recruiting memory you may remember that Slocum, a near-five star defensive tackle, committed to Michigan two years ago but did not qualify. A semester at prep school did not quite get him there, but Slocum enrolled at Michigan anyway and is now eligible. He won't be able to practice this spring but will be available in the fall. Will either have five years to play four or just four to play four (don't know yet). May end up on the OL. We'll have to see.

Redshirt freshman Steve Schilling is healthy enough to participate in spring practice, an important step in Schilling's progress towards a starting spot. He's the heavy favorite to start at RT this fall.

Austin Panter is going to play and play quickly, as you might expect. He, along with Chambers, Helmuth, and Mallett are already enrolled and will participate in spring practice.

Limbo. Antonio Bass and his cursed knee. No one knows; prognosis seems grim.

Quintin Woods, a sleeper DE/TE recruit from last year, never made it to campus. Lloyd was asked about his status and said he was "in school," but later said that was a mixup and he was not allowed to comment on his status. So they're trying to get him in but don't know yet, I guess.

Still here. Brandent Englemon, the subject of an unreliable internet rumor claiming he would not be invited back, is still on the team and will play his fifth year.

Position clarifications: James Rogers, presumed to be a WR recruit, is listed as a DB at MGoBlue.com. Watson and Webb are both TEs.

Incredibly Important Side Note: Renaldo Sagesse's coach is named "Claude Juneau," which is so, so, so French.

2007 Recruiting: Offensive Backfield

Ryan Mallett

Texarkana, Texas - 6'7" 250
		Scout	5*, #2 QB, #5 overall
		Rivals	5*, #2 QB, #4 overall
		ESPN	85, #2 QB, #12 overall
		Lemming	#2 QB, #2 overall
		Stupid Nickname	All That Is Good And Right With The World
		YMRMFSPA	Jamarcus Russell
Previously On MGoBlog	Facts About Mallett; Elite 11 Champion; Firsthand at the Elite 11
Notes	Three-time WSOP winner; craps diamonds; plans to solve world hunger by 2012

Ah, Mallett. Mallett Mallett Mallett. The pending graduation of starter Chad Henne and two years of meh QB recruiting -- Navarre-sized option QB David Cone and only slightly shirtless Jason Forcier -- made some damn quarterback or three priorities A, B, and C for Michigan's recruiting year. Mallett was already known to the Michigan coaches, having attended their summer camp as a junior. He turned in a glove-shredding, eye-opening experience and had Michigan coaches hounding him immediately thereafter. Mallett considered Texas, but when Florida QB John Brantley wanted to make a commitment to Texas, the Longhorns made an ultimatum that was not accepted. Brantley, like everyone else in the universe, decommitted to go to Florida.

Over the course of the year Mallett bounced around the top end of various recruit rankings, sliding from the top ten on most boards down to the 20s, 30s, or even 50s because of concerns over his battleship-sized torso's lack of mobility. Those concerns evaporated when Mallet turned in an outstanding practice week at the Army All-American bowl, then coupled that with a dynamite performance in the game itself. Mallet was 6/9 with two drops. Most of his passes were darts downfield, seams and outs thrown on a rope. Late in the game he displayed an ability to get out of the pocket and throw on the (tentatively classified) run. Afterwards, he shot up guru boards in concert, landing in everyone's top five except for recalcitrant ESPN. Most still have him behind ND's Jimmah Clausen, but the gap between Mallett and the first player to win six Heismans is now regarded as wafer-theen.

Guru Reliability: Strong
General Excitement Level: AAAAAHHHHHH THE BEATLES ON ED SULLIVAN AND I'M 16
Projection: Carr irritates me by wasting his redshirt year; Mallett starts for three years afterwards.

Avery Horn

Hanford, California - 5'10" 180
		Scout	3*, #77 RB
		Rivals	3*, #13 AP RB, #67 CA
		ESPN	78, #33 RB
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Jerome Jackson
Previously On MGoBlog	Useful Googlestalking; firsthand info
Notes	!!!!No other 4x100 team in HHS history has ever won Valley!!!!

(Horn is Rivals' #13 "all purpose back"; some sites break positions down ridiculously in order to facilitate increased hype, e.g. "OMG we got the #1 Mormon strongside defensive end with a peanut allergy!")

One of a few players in this year's class that may or may not be placed on the correct side of the ball as of this very moment, Horn is nominally a tailback but may end up in the secondary. Unreliable but fun local internet rumors have Michigan looking at him as a potential free safety:

I forgot to mention, that I heard that there are rumbling of Michigan using Horn as a Free Safety prospect. My source told me that the coach recruiting him was Alvin's (Avery's dad) DB coach at UNLV. hmm interesting possibility.

A quick check of the Michigan coaching bios on MGoBlue.com turns up no one even remotely connected to UNLV, so take that with a grain of salt. It was a possibility that popped into my head when he committed, for what that's worth. Post-Rojo fiasco/pre-Warren miracle rumors had Carlos Brown, who spent a portion of spring practice at CB last year, potentially moving to the secondary, something that would make the Michigan depth chart at RB fairly thin without Horn. He'll spend at least a year at RB, as Michigan lets you play where you want to your freshman year, and then a mutual decision will be made.

As a runner, Horn racked up impressive numbers when healthy. This junior year he rushed for over 1,600 yards at 7-8 YPC and returned four kickoffs for touchdowns. Unfortunately, Horn picked up a nasty ankle sprain this fall and missed three and a half games. His final, reduced numbers:

• 111 carries for 921 yards (8.2 ypc), 9 TD.
• 8 catches for 110 yards (13.7 YPC), 1 TD.

Either he didn't have any KO TD as a senior or data was not provided.

Horn had offers from an array of respectable schools (Nebraska, Oregon, Washington, and most of the rest of the Pac-10) but was not recruited by USC or Cal.

Guru Reliability: Fairly good. Senior-year injury and eyepopping YPC numbers make a case he's underrated, but though his offers weren't bad neither were they outstanding.
General Excitement Level: Jerome Jackson, maybe?
Projection: Irritatingly fails to redshirt, spends a year at tailback. 50/50 as to whether he's good enough to continue there with Minor a year ahead of him and (presumably) some hyped recruit or another hot on his heels.

Vince Helmuth

Saline, Michigan - 6'2" 235
		Scout	4*, #1 FB
		Rivals	3*, #9 FB
		ESPN	78, #1 FB
		Lemming	NR
		Stupid Nickname	N/A
		YMRMFSPA	Kevin Dudley
Previously On MGoBlog	"Bulldozer," sayeth ESPN.
Notes	Gap in front teeth vaguely reminiscent of David Letterman

Michigan generally starts the recruiting year off with a sexy commitment from some high-profile junior who plays a skill position. This year: Vince Helmuth, fullback extraordinare. This was disappointing to the basement-bound recruitniks, but you've got to have one and Helmuth is by general acclimation this year's best notwithstanding Rivals' ranking, which features non-fullbacks like Robert Hughes.

At Saline, Helmuth was part of a grinding power attack that frequently featured him as a ballcarrier. This is unlikely to be the case when he sees the field at Michigan, but he might come in handy as a short-yardage back from time to time after Kevin Grady graduates. An early enrollee, Helmuth is a strong candidate for playing time as a true freshman. His only other competition at fullback is redshirt sophomore Andre Criswell, a high school defensive linemen who was a who-dat pickup a couple years ago. Will Paul may or may not return for his fifth year.

Also: Helmuth is good at throwing things real far.

Guru Reliability: Strong
General Excitement Level: I find the idea of a head-thumping fullback pleasing, but it's just a fullback.
Projection: Multi-year starter and a fan favorite.

Early Early Signing Day Newsbits

Jerimy Finch's word is about as reliable as that of the US Army... if you're an American Indian. Finch, who you may remember was a Michigan commit for a number of months before switching to IU because his Warren Central teammates were his "family," has decided to join Florida's family, at least for now. Dear Hoosiers: ha-ha. Projected Florida decommit in 3... 2... 1...

Anyway, the upshot: if Finch offers you blankets, for God's sake don't take them.

Rashad Mason committed to UNC. Happened a couple days ago, mentioned here for completeness.

Boubacar Cissoko is Michigan's first 2008 commit. The Cass Tech corner is on both Scout and Rivals preliminary Top 100 lists and is a decidedly sexier start than last year's Vince Helmuth commit, no offense to Mr. Helmuth. Cissoko's a bit undersized at 5'9" but has been tearing up scouting combines whenever he deigns to attend them.

Vance Bedford, recently booted from his position as Oklahoma State's defensive coordinator, will be returning to Michigan as defensive backs coach, a position he held in '97 (woo) and '98 (less woo but still not bad). Since then he was the Bears' defensive backs coach for six years and the DC at OK State for two. His tenure at OKState was abbreviated when he sort of flipped out after a poor performance from his D, calling critics "roaches," a term usually reserved for Ohio State fans.

Initial opinion on this: indifferent. Bedford's a known quantity in the Michigan program and should fit in well -- Ron Lee's dismissal is increasingly rumored to be because of recruiting improprieties -- but his tenure was long enough ago that I don't remember much good or bad about him. His successor Teryl Austin was a dynamite recruiter but oversaw the Todd Howard era of Michigan defensive back disasters.

Unverified Voracity Haet Official Journalist

Official Journalist Haet Recruiting. "Signing Day," the fictional recruitnik holiday, is tomorrow. And as per usual so we're treated to our annual dose of condescending coverage from Official Journalists irritated at the relative vectors of the official journalism and online hypery businesses. Official journalism article checklist:

• take shot at largely fictional basement-dwelling recruiting freaks
• create framework of unreasonable expectations and then berate Scout/Rivals for not meeting said unreasonable expectations
• blame everything on mad fans, blogs, and non-Official Journalists
• pretend I understand how to construct an argument, even though I obviously do not.

Exhibit A: Brent Schrotenbroeter's article today on "SignOnSanDiego," the web arm of that city's Union-Tribune, approvingly cited by a second Official Journalist at the Wizard of Odds. Main thesis:

While all the hype surrounding him is making at least two Web sites rich, top recruits don't live up to their billings on those sites about 40 percent of the time, according to analyses by The San Diego Union-Tribune and a national recruiting expert.

Which is an interesting way of phrasing "60% of the time a guy projected to be awesome is." An analysis from last summer done in this space (small sample size, admittedly) shows similar numbers... if you are intent on framing things in the most negative light possible and blaming Rivals/Scout for injury, academics, and general knuckleheadedness. In general, if you pick up a top-50 player who doesn't explode for non-talent-related reasons, you have a 60% chance he's an all-conference type* or better. This, as SMQ said, is a raging clue.

WOO cites the part in which coaches crab about recruiting rankings unnecessarily raising expectations, but coaches crab about everything. With their corresponding enormous salary leap, I am disinclined to give a microcrap when millionaires whine about job security.

*(-ish. Like the kind of guy who's in the all-conference area: first team, second team, maybe the higher sort of honorable mention sort.)

Harris defends Amaker... sort of. Quotes in the run-up to tonight's projected hammering at the hands of Ohio State:

This is (a problem) just with everybody; this is (a problem) with the team," he said. "We're the ones going out there and playing. We can't put anything on the coach or anybody else. We're the ones that have to go out there and play and display certain things that we haven't done this year."

Sure. That's the sort of thing you hear all the time. It's a sports press conference version of a no-op, where you get asked a question you can't reasonably answer because it would cause widespread dissension amongst the team and spontaneous raging clues to sprout in every controversy-seeking journalist within 500 miles and answer it with some meaningless blather. But when you follow that up with...

"If you look at some of the stuff we do that looks awful -- that we see in film all the time -- you wouldn't know there were four seniors on the floor," Harris said. "Just looking at other teams, you don't see (those kind of mistakes), even from some of the younger teams."

... then how can that be a reflection on anyone but Amaker? MLive's Michigan blog has an email from an anonymous former Amaker player supporting Friendly Mr. Coachy; color me unconvinced.

Zook zook zook. Ron Zook, the pied piper of Champaign-Urbana, hauled in an improbable recruiting class this year. Result? Exploration at the WWL! Bemusement at SMQ! Depression, anger, and bullriding at EDSBS!

Unverified Voracity And Stuff

Mucho video. The same industrious fellow who put together the Brady/Navarre highlight reels didn't stop there. The Fanhouse has a compilation of his compilations of memorable QB play from the 70s, 80s, and 90s for your edification.

Relevant? There's been a lot of discussion (read: violent calls for) Amaker's job given Michigan's steady incompetence. Nothing Michigan has done on the court can be construed as an argument for anything other than a guillotine job at year's end, but two guys playing on other courts may just buy Happy Mr. Coachy another year. The Daily has an extensive article on Manny Harris and Alex Legion, both of whom are playing very well as seniors. RTWT; excerpted here is a key passage about the program's future:

Even though both Harris and Legion have signed National Letters of Intent, they are allowed to renege on those contracts if Amaker is not around. However, they would both have to sit out next season if they took that path.

Harris said he is committed to Michigan no matter who the coach is. But with Legion, his agreement may be contingent on Amaker still holding the reigns.

"Coach Amaker had a lot to do with me coming to Michigan," Legion said. "Him and my mom are real close. His charisma and his personality are what brought me to Michigan. If he's not there, it would kind of hard for me to stay because he's one of the big reasons why I decided to come there."

I believe that the Daily guy's assertion that Legion/Harris would lose a year of eligibility if they were released from their LOIs is incorrect. When Kelvin Sampson left OU for Indiana last year, signed PG Scotty Reynolds opened up his recruitment and went to Villanova, where he's having an excellent freshman year. Unless Michigan wants the PR nightmare of holding a kid to a LOI he no longer wants to honor because the coach he committed to is no longer there, Legion could go anywhere without penalty.

Hoberg? Horrible! Michigan was subjected to the referee stylings of Scott Hoberg in Alaska and then at Lawson. Each game was a 5-on-3 filled disaster that had players and coaches mystified afterwards. This may shed some light: Hoberg was fired by the AHL for calling way too many penalties, and the AHL has adopted the same zero-tolerance policy the NHL has. So moving him to the laxer standards of CCHA play results in? 24 minors at Lawson. Piotrowski got the game at Yost -- an odd switch, that. Hopefully the Hoberg experiment is over and we can get back to our usual rotating cast of incompetent simians.

Draft stuffs. GBN updates their main board. Michigan players on it:

• #6 Alan Branch
• #18 Leon Hall
• #32 Lamarr Woodley
• #64 David Harris
• #71 Prescott Burgess

Evidently, Hall's stock has dropped a little bit. IMO, Harris remains way too low.

Annual Complaint Against Obscure Ranking System

In future years: ACAORS for short.

In the beginning, the Pairwise Rankings used to select and seed the NCAA hockey tournament were hopelessly complicated and nearly arbitrary. Back when the NCAA had but twelve teams in the tourney, it was arbitrary enough to exclude the WCHA regular season champion in 1994, creating a strange interstitial period where automatic bids were awarded for both regular-season and playoff championships. Teams were included or excluded from "consideration" based on an arbitrary RPI cliff; since one of the factors in the PWR was a team's record against "teams under consideration" (TUC) the meaningless season-ending death rattles of Ferris State or Ohio State or whatever mediocre teams happened to be thrashing around the .500 RPI Mendoza line became hugely important to the fortunes of teams actually good enough to make the tournament. The CCHA's stupidly extensive conference season combined with the PWR's stupidly sparse "common opponents" category to make single games hugely important, comparison-flipping monstrosities. The "Last 16" category favored teams with front-loaded schedules. It was all very, very stupid.

So the committee set out to change said stupidities: they dumped the L16 category entirely. They fiddled with RPI. They introduced a "good wins" RPI bonus, then scaled it back to only apply to road games. They changed the TUC boundary from the arbitrary "above .500" to the equally arbitrary "top 25." The end result? A system that's just about as dumb as it was before, but one that hews closer to RPI -- something any basketball fan can tell you is state-of-the-art in the same way an Apple IIE is. Since RPI 1) is one of the four factors in each pairwise comparison, 2) is the tiebreaker whenever any individual comparison stalemates, and 3) is furthermore the tiebreaker whenever two teams come out with the same number of points, in general the thing looks like a slightly corrected(?) version of the RPI. At this moment in time the 1-2-3-4-5 teams in PWR are also the 1-2-3-4-5 teams in RPI. Next are 7 and 9. Where are 6 (Michigan) and 8 (Michigan State)? Languishing far below those spots for reasons that can only be described as... yes, completely arbitrary.

In particular, an early-season loss to Hockey East punching bag Northeastern -- a game for which Michigan has already been punished in the RPI -- is a millstone around Michigan's neck. It's the basis for PWR's highly scientific decision to give BC and BU the Common Opponents category and thus those comparisons. BU's record against fellow Michigan opponents is a stirring 1-0-1; Michigan's is but 1-1. Two games amongst nearly 40. Meanwhile, the BC-Michigan common opponents comparison is more robust -- BC is 4-2-1, Michigan 3-3 -- but terribly close, just like the TUC category. BC edges Michigan by a tiny fraction in both categories and takes the comparison despite being fully .035 behind Michigan in the PWR-declared all-important RPI, a huge gap comparable to that between Michigan and 1-seed locks. As a result, the team with the 6th best RPI in the country languishes in 10th. Flip those two comparisons and Michigan is in 8th, not coincidentally where mathematically-robust-but-hard-to-understand KRACH* has them.

Stupidities like these are the heart of all PWR complaints. The committee has made a few changes that will help cut down on the system's notorious volatility, but the route they've chosen only serves to obscure the arbitrary nature of the process instead of actually fix it. I'm thinking of the TUC cutoff change here, which is equally random but more controlled. Instead of three or four teams potentially flipping their TUC status with fundamentally irrelevant games, it's maybe one or two these days, but teams will still see their fortunes wax or wane because the mediocre teams they beat were slightly more or less mediocre than some other mediocre teams other teams beat.

There are two issues at heart here:

• Non-RPI categories are stupid and flawed. Common Opponents and TUC record are not weighted for schedule strength. TUC record counts games against #1 as heavily as games against #25. A hypothetical Common Opponents comparison could feature four games against #60 and one against #1 for one team and the inverse for another.
• Non-RPI categories are given equal weight no matter the circumstances. Michigan's loss instead of a tie against Northeastern flips an entire comparison that is decisively Michigan's on RPI. BC's narrow advantages in stupid and flawed non-RPI categories obliterate Michigan's huge lead in the RPI, also flawed but vastly more comprehensive as it takes every game into account and attempts to weight it by difficulty.

If the selection committee is married to the idea of the Pairwise, it should be reconceived as the RPI correction scheme it is and a team shouldn't lose a major advantage in the most comprehensive available category because of a weighting issue. In this hypothetical system, each team's RPI would be the input of the first parameter (all numbers plucked from the ether):

	Michigan	BC
RPI	.6000	.5700

Whatever categories the committee would like to include would then serve to modify that RPI. Say .500 is your TUC mendoza line. Higher than that, you get a bonus; lower, a penalty. You can have a special TUC RPI if you desire to include some schedule strength into the categories -- which we do. Schedule adjusted or no, we add and subtract bits from the RPI based on what the committee wants of emphasize, then scale them based on game count to downplay anomalies like the one flipping the BU-Michigan comparison:

	Michigan	BC
RPI	.6000	.5700
TUC	.45 * x	.52 * x
COP	.60 * y	.66 * y

Where x and y are appropriate weighting factors. Do the same for head-to-head, weighting it somewhat more heavily (in our hypothetical world, let's give BC a win over Michigan). Then take your modifying factors and add them to your RPI starting point to come up with a final modified RPI:

	Michigan	BC
RPI	.6000	.5700
TUC	-0.0025	+0.005
COP	-0.005	+.0025
H2H	0	+0.01
mRPI	.5925	.5875

In this hypothetical world, BC's slight advantages in the PWR categories help them run up the RPI ditch they've dug for themselves but not all the way. This system is still fairly intelligible but has enough fine grain to kill 99% of the silly comparison-flipping and volatility that math-inclined college hockey fans know and loathe so well.

(Least. Popular. Post. Everrrrrr.)

*(KRACH has real-world issues: it doesn't chase shiny records enough to prevent aesthetically ugly things like having nine WCHA teams in the top 20 and featuring WCHA also-rans Michigan Tech, Wisconsin, and Minnesota State as hypothetical bubble teams. Over the last half-decade or so it's been relentless in its WCHA boosterism -- almost as relentless as real life. But the masses are unlikely to go for a system that has the potential to put more than half of a conference into a supposedly national tournament, deserving or not.)

Nojo

Uberprospect Ronald Johnson is going to USC, something that seems way less of a disaster than it did when Donovan Warren was also supposed to be a future Trojan. In the end, USC and Michigan ended up with a strange cross-country cornerback exchange program and the end result of this recruiting year is the same: somewhat disappointing but still okay, especially with the so very shirtless recruits at cornerback and quarterback.

Still out there is TN WR Rashad Mason and (probably) a surprise recruit like Andre Criswell or Brandent Englemon. Full breakdown around signing day.

Rojo Mojo?

Much has been made of the Rojo situation over the past few days, and I hesitate to say anything definite. What we do know: there has been some sort of relenting in the Rojo camp and Michigan will/is visiting with him and family in-home. We are not out of it.

Crazy. We were at



for basically a year. Then Fiasco Tuesday:



And now I think there's enough evidence to push us back from the brink and declare a state of careful neutrality:



A major plank in this scaling back from ROJOCON4 to ROJOCON3 is generally reliable Buckeye insider Unionfutura's post today on BP:

the more I hear about this recruitment, the more I think everyone is trying to look out for Ronald the best way he/she can. I think the biggest problem is a lack of communication between all the parties and if Michigan can clear things up in the next few days, it'll be back in the drivers seat. Like I said we shall see. Today's a big day.

So hurray. Hopefully ROJOCON will settle at 1 at some point in the future:



(deeply bizarre emoticons are part of a small expansion of the 2008 recruiting board, which will feature the above as approximate guides to Michigan's chances with particular recruits and will allow some distinctions other than "on board" and "off board." Someone like Jermale Hines would get nefarious red, presumed locks like Boubacar Cissoko green, and guys still narrowing things down a neutral yellow)

CFBA Awards: Best Audio Thing/Podcast

Whoops. In yesterday's chaos I completely omitted the last portion of Orson Swindle Award Bukkake. Here it is, a day late, but still, um, awardy goodness.

Best Audio

FOR: The best audio thing or regular podcast presented during the 2006 season.

RUNNER-UP: Verno's Blog, for "The Orgeron Song." This is normally where the fawning would go, but words? Orgeron song? No. Just... just listen:



yawyawyawyaw yaw yaw. footbaw.

WINNAH: Orson Swindle Award Bukkake... IV! Orson was up for two separate audio things: an interview with Michael Lewis, who you might remember from such books as "The Blind Side" and "Moneyball," and the instantly infamous "Lee Corso Slo-Jam." The winner, obviously, is the Lee Corso Slo-Jam. As I described it in my nomination post:

Ohhhh yeah, baby... Lee Corso. "I'm about to run a freaky option like you never seen between passion and ecstasy." Orson, Orson, Orson, you have no idea how many sweet love-makin' sessions you've ruined when Corso's head has floated in from the side and hovered over the lovee, Reese-Witherspoon-in-Election style. Half nightmare, half dream, all sexy: The Lee Corso Soul, er, Explosion. Mascot head don't lie.

This concludes Orson Swindle Award bukkake, 2006.

Unverified Voracity is Internet Meme Crazy

Three cheers for Warren. Various celebratory posts across the Wolverineosphere. My favorite features what looks to be Batboy dressed as a pirate:



Avast, Long Beach Poly, prepare to be boarded. GBW has a summary on Warren if you're wondering what all the divers alarums is about.

One more Babelfish gem. Another article on Sagesse that's all French-like, a ranking of Quebec football recruits. Relevant passage:

For a second consecutive semester this is a player of the Spartan ones of the Old Montreal that is in list head. In fact, the line player defensive Rénaldo Wisdom succeeds Earned Martin, another line player defensive, as better Quebec player of less than twenty years. Wisdom dominated during the weekend, while most of the players seemed a little rusty. Several players and present trainers have besides asserted that the execution did cruelly defect during the weekend.

Originally I thought the passage meant Sagesse was the best prospect in the last twenty years -- best Nevadan NHLer ever! -- but that's not the case. Rather, he's named the best player younger than twenty. Canadian high school has an extra grade, so Sagesse will be as old as many juniors when he steps on campus and nearly as old as Jimmah Clausen.

Look at me look at me why isn't anyone looking at me? Rob Parker shuts off his brain and comes up with this... um... column: "Amaker deserves more time to craft turnaround." As expected, universe mocks Parker. Dumbest portion of very dumb column:

Those who say Amaker hasn't done anything are grossly misled. With Amaker at the helm, Michigan won an NIT title in 2004 and lost to South Carolina in the NIT final last year. That doesn't sound like players who don't want to play for a coach. In fact, it's the opposite. It tells you what kind of a motivator he honestly is.

The kind of motivator who can't get boatloads of seniors into the NCAA tournament? Classic example of a newspaper guy writing something he doesn't actually believe for attention and access.

Hensick for Hobey. On the strength of last weekend's five points, Hensick moves into the lead in CSTV's Hobey poll. It's a narrow lead, though, with Miami's Nate Davis and ND's Dave Brown hot on his heels. With Michigan shifting to a road & Joe schedule after Saturday's WMU game he'll have to do it away from Yost.

Ohio. Don't click here.

Loli Haet College Basketball, but loev college basketball bloggers. Ken Pomeroy posts a set of "dicta" that mgoblog would like to cosign 100%. Favorite and most applicable to college football:

Don’t confuse achievement with performance. If I somehow happened to become a coach, I would totally write this on the chalkboard after a close win over a lousy team. Future achievement can be better predicted by past performance than past achievement. How to measure performance is the tricky part, but I know it goes deeper than recording W’s and L’s, or even looking at who a team beat and lost to. If you’re wondering why I am often unconcerned about past achievements, it’s because so many other people have that covered. You can look at the conference standings and see achievement. Trying to figure out a team’s level of performance is more challenging, but also more insightful. Naturally, there comes a time in the season where achievement trumps performance, and that time is called March Madness.

File under abuse of power. So... a student at a Penn State branch campus is suing for the best reason ever:

-A college student claims she was injured when a "moose head with antlers" fell off the wall of a Pennsylvania State University laboratory and landed on her head. According to Amy Walters, the falling moose head struck her in the right temple and knocked her into a chair, where the stuffed item landed in her lap. The February 2005 incident, Walters claims in a Court of Commons Pleas complaint, has left her suffering from severe headaches. A copy of the January 25 lawsuit can be found below. Walters was attending a biology class in the lab, which had "several wild game heads displayed on the walls about the room." As she peered through a microscope "directly beneath the moose head," Walters claims, she was struck on the head by the plummeting hunter's trophy.

Why is this the best reason ever? The Germans.



You naughty moose.

Etc.: WCH and Red on the "family advisors" phenomenon in college hockey; Carty on the RoJo weirdness.

Donovan Warren? Um. Come On Down?

This would be one of the all-time weirdest finishing stretches for Michigan in the Lemming era of recruiting if this particular thing was to transpire, but: California five-star cornerback Donovan Warren, long presumed to be the lockiest of USC locks, announces tonight at 7 PST. An email tipster provided some information a few hours ago that indicated Warren had informed a few Michigan players he was going to be a future teammate; I sat on it since there was no confirmation. With various fires starting on Michigan message boards to that effect, let's just tentatively state that at the very least his announcement has become interesting and the bull market is back on, baby.

Update: Doug Karsch is flat-out claiming he's a commit on WXYT right now.

Update II: Well slap me and call me Susan: it's done. A recruiting disaster on par with 2000 is officially averted. Warren will be a Wolverine in the fall and we have our first five-star corner since Marlin Jackson. Of course we had to go the panicky, crazy-ass route to get him, but there you go. Recruiting, ladies and gentlemen... recruiting.

Oui Oui, It's A DT

GBW reports that Quebec defensive tackle Renaldo Sagesse has decommitted from Illinois and chosen Michigan. Another in the three-star brigade but the only DT in the class thus far. Informative update coming.

Update: Did I say "informative"? What I meant was "not informative." Sagesse, being a Canadian, has been largely overlooked by gurus. ESPN gives him the "40" they give all unrated players. Scout doesn't rank him. Rivals tags him with a fairly generic three stars. What we know:

He is a large man. 6'4", 320. No tweener, this guy. DT all the way.

He is also intimidating-looking, as befits a defensive tackle:

Canada!

He committed to Illinois over interest from Minnesota and Wisconsin. His decommit seems prompted largely by issues getting his Canadian transcript past Illinois admissions. Michigan, having recruited French-Canadians like Emanuel Casseus, Alain Kashama, and the immortal Deitan Dubuc in the past, had no such issues.

He digs our installations. A player diary from some all-star game or another is in the language of love, and cheese, and surrender. Always-hilarious babelfish translation:

Today was the last practice before our match of championship. Before practising, one made a visit of the campus of the university of Michigan State. I noticed that in the United States football has a very important place in the American company. The installations of Michigan State are very beautiful, and one could see the ground of close relation. It was not badly exciting to see a ground of the NCAA of close relation. Two days earlier, one had also been to see the installations of the university of Michigan, a university which is very famous in the United States. It was impressionant to see a so large university of my own eyes, the only problem was that the ground was in renovation.

With regard to our team, everyone seem conscious that tomorrow will be a very important match for us. After our video meeting with the trainers, one has to notice that same if the defensive line has to dominate has all the parts, we nevertheless made several mental errors, that it will be necessary to fix for the final. Side of all the defensive unit we dominated and it is what we must do for still another part if we want to gain the next match. We have several very good players in offensive as with the defensive thus we have just to do each one our work to be likely to gain the gold medal.

It would be the fun to be able to gain this championship and to become champions of the world. However, nothing is given free thus tomorrow the things will be not badly more intérressante. Before leaving I would like to say THANK YOU to my family for reception for all that it one does for me and I would as like to say to my family and to my friends as tomorrow, I will try to return to the house with a gold medal to my neck.

Peace out [In English -ed]

So there you go. This guy's a complete wildcard. He could be Kashama or he could be Biakabutuka. No one knows. I'll take a wildcard over an empty scholarship, especially at a position with no other recruits this year.

CFBA Awards: Best Pac-10 Blog

Best Pac-10 Blog

FOR: The best blog covering either one Pac-10 school or the conference as a whole.

RUNNER-UP: Building The Dam. The SBNation Oregon State blog got to celebrate a baseball national championship this year, but that doesn't count here. What does count is an entertaining, ongoing prediction competition between BTD, an XBox, and a coin that BTD won... and the coin took second. Woo coin!

WINNAH: Every Day Should Be... wait a minute. Bruins Nation. Leading the nation in anti-coach invective since they were "Fire Karl Dorrell" on blogspot, Bruins Nation is without question the most passionate, partisan blog out there. And they don't like Karl Dorrell. The USC victory provided a short-lived honeymoon for the embattled Bruin coach...

To me the most amazing moment from last night's game was to see Coach Dorrell huddle with his team in the midfield, jumping up and down, BREATHING FIRE, eyeing directly at Pom Pom's classless thugs. I will remember that image for rest of my life.

...but giving up four billion points to the previously punchless Jeff Bowden-led Seminoles? Uh, honeymoon over. He's the "worst coach since WWII," when it was MacArthur. After the Emerald Bowl they "had that Lavin feeling," which is rhetorical genius right there in one compact headline. Emblematic of the passion and fandom in sportsblogging, I present Bruins Nation, the best Pac-10 blog of 2006.

CFBA Awards: The Tyrone Prothro

(late late late! Sorry!)

The Tyrone Prothro

FOR: The finest individual post of the college football year.

RUNNER-UP: Not one but four posts from Blue-Gray Sky on how the wheels came off against Ohio State in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl. As a whole, "Four Plays." As constituent atoms: the Bomb, the Reverse, the Play Action, and the Conclusion. Each dissects one of the Buckeyes' field-spanning touchdowns in exquisitely horrible detail for Irish fans, taking them moment-by-moment with a series of screencaps, explaining in the utmost detail just where it all went so very wrong. It works as both a coping mechanism for Notre Dame fans and a schadenfreude popsicle for, well, me, but most importantly it's the single most detailed and impressive bit of analysis produced by the blogosphere this year, and I say that as a man who reviews every play of Michigan's season not against teams named Ball State.

WINNAH: Orson Swindle award bukkake... III! It's got an unwieldy name but it's also well worth it: YOUR SCHOOL’S PROMOTIONAL AD IS TEH SUX0RZ! GRAND CRU: APPALACHIAN IS HOT HOT HOT! The only blog post of the year to inspire a spot on VH1's Webjunk 2.0 (probably), Orson's deconstruction of "Appalachian is HOT HOT HOT" permanently terminated EDSBS's semi-ongoing series on university commercials because what would the point be, really?

The post itself is a meander through the two minutes and seventeen seconds of pure horror that is "Appalachian" and sorely tests even Orson's ability to describe something as complete crap. There is a simple WARNING LABEL:

this video is the opposite of sex, and may induce erectile dysfunction for life.

There are (probable) references to Rosie O'Donnell:

The original intended effect was, we imagine, supposed to be an energetic, homespun feel simultaneously highlighting the “high” side of ASU’s countryfied image while showing off some of the less well-known “HOT” angles of life in the Harvard of Western Carolina. (ASU, for the uninitiated, has a reputation as a school where many students display keen interest in recreational agronomy. By this, we mean they like to smoke well-cultivated, brain-crashing marijuana in their free time.) At least that’s what they started from before this ad burst from its fetid, ill-begotten womb and clawed its deformed, hairy, many-legged self into existence.

(I mean... right?)There's... uh... this:

The song—oh God, our ass is starting to hurt just thinking about it–oh, the song. The song is a pounding, rolling shitstorm of horrors, from the opening horn flair to the halfassed guitar solo played by the guy in your dorm who was forever working on the opening riff of Metallica’s “Seek and Destroy.” The guitar solo in particular roils our guts, since it sounds like something straight off the soundtrack of Saved By the Bell; you may as well have Screech in the commercial jamming to the song on an unplugged guitar, faking the solo badly while wearing a pair of ray-bans and a white sport coat.

There are references to central African countries:

The graphics…well, there’s all the sparkle and pizazz you expect from a professional production. In Chad. In 1995. The spinning, flipping images are trumped on every chorus by the flaming letters HOT HOT HOT! The words appear at least four times in the video, which if you strapped us into a chair, pried our eyelids open, and played Beethoven non-stop for hours on end still wouldn’t make us associate those words with anything remotely Appalachian State-ish.

Finally, Orson just collapses in the deranged wonder of it all:

None. A disaster and a blessing. A kiss and a slap. A beautiful woman and the herpes she gives you.

Just like this post, which simultaneously gave us "HOT HOT HOT" and something with which to grapple its beastly wonder. Truly an accomplishment.

What Orson Said

(And what he said: recruiting is creepy.)

Approximate timeline of my yesterday:

• 12-1ish AM: post Orson Swindle Award Bukkake Part I.
• Sometime in the night: Internets go away.
• Sometime later, say ten-ish: recruiting hell breaks loose. Five star cornerback Ronald Johnson, a critical, OMG Shirtless recruit if there ever was one, reportedly drops Michigan. Panic, chaos ensue.
• Yet later (I said this was approximate): someone starts forwarding a creepy email around purporting to be inside information on the exact circumstances of the drop. It levels Lebron's mom-type accusations at the Official Mom of Rojo and implies that shady doesn't begin to cover said circumstances. None of it will ever be proven true; all of it will filter into Michigan recruiting lore. The ghost stories hardcore recruitniks tell each other when they like to simulate misery now include Ronald Johnson's mom.
• 6:30-ish. Online, I survey the carnage. Someone's sent me an email declaring it to be a "kick in the nuts." What? Wait? He? I quickly pass through the first few stages of Kubler-Ross -- it can't be true I GON KILL SOMEONE what if we offer his brother I GON KILL ME -- before settling on a Michigan-football-localized depression.

End result: Ronald Johnson, a guy who has never said anything more definitive than "Michigan is in my top five," is trashed by jilted nuts. His mom, assuming this all turns out like it looks like it's going to, is going to be Public Enemy Number One for a certain subsection of Michigan fandom because one guy sent a somewhat convincing but very, very unverified email. I'm looking for puppies to kick (unless they can play cornerback, in which case it's "red rocket" time).

Recruiting, ladies and gentlemen! I hate it and will never fall for this stuff ag--

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- First he committed to Michigan. Then he changed his mind and decided to go to Indiana. Now Warren Central standout Jerimy Finch, the top-rated high school football player in Indiana, said it's a two-horse race. Finch, who made an unofficial visit to the University of Florida last weekend, said Wednesday night he has not decided if he will attend Indiana or Michigan.

C'mon Jerimy! You, your badass safety skills, and your complete inability to understand the words "verbal commitment" would be a perfect fit at Michigan. You would start last season! I'll tutor you! Charles Woodson won the Heisman and so can you!

So, yeah, recruiting is creepy. But so am I, evidently. The latest:

Ronald Johnson still seems to be out. There will undoubtedly be many conflicting rumors in the next few days (he plans to announce Sunday) and I'll try to parse them to offer up some general idea of where he's going, but at this point he seems like a vast longshot.

The Donovan Warren bull market is receding and USC again appears to be the likely destination. The rumored unofficial to Michigan that was supposed to happen a few days ago did not come off. While the mere possibility it would happen implies that Michigan is under serious consideration, it also implies that there needed to be a little extra push to convince the young man and that won't be happening now.

Jerimy Finch is momentarily considering Michigan. Previous statements from Finch:

• I'm 100% committed to Michigan
• I'm 100% committed to Indiana.
• It's 50-50 between Indiana and Florida.
• It's 50-50 between Indiana and Michigan.

Schroedinger's recruit. Open the box on signing day.

Rashad Mason did not make a trip to Clemson and is considering Ole Miss, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Michigan. Michigan clobberates those schools but good in recent on-field success, but the rest are closer to his Tennessee home -- Mason's expressed a desire to get out of Tennessee and "experience new things," but how new are we talking here? -- and can presumably offer more immediate access to playing time behind guys who aren't Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington. Has never named a leader. So, like, I dunno. Think we're better than 25% but worse than 40%.

CFBA Awards: Keith Jackson Circa 1995

The Keith Jackson Circa 1995 Award

FOR: The best prose. The best, most consistently appealing sentences, phrases, and paragraphs.

In my mind, this is the big one. The blogosphere is often characterized as a domain of slack-jawed internet yokels, each attempting to cram in as much erroneous punctuation and horrid diction as possible.

This is not so true in my experience. The persons who float to the top of the blogging world are unconstrained by the strictures placed upon mainstream journalists. They can write what they want about who they want, and they can make it as long or short as it warrants. They are not bound by the pretense of objectivity and can relate the intensely personal feelings of crazed fandom to fellow sufferers. They can swear like sailors. And most importantly, the very reason they've floated to the top of the blogging world is that they have an abiding passion for college football unsated by mere consumption. The end result often far outstrips the tepid, lowest-common-demoninator approach necessitated by mass media. (No assertions about the blogosphere's reliability, timeliness, or sanity will be proffered here, in case anyone out there is worried about an unfortunate outbreak of Blog Triumphalism.)

The end result is that the very best writing done about college football this year, in my opinion, has been done in the blogosphere. And to win this award, in my opinion, is to be named the best person writing about college football anywhere. (Damn. Unmistakable Blog Triumphalism. Sorry.) So, yeah, I wanted to win.

RUNNER UP: Dawg Sports. If we had decided to hand out an award for "Most Prolific," Dawg Sport's Kyle King would have run away with the award like he was Phil Fulmer with a purloined Krispy Kreme. Every day -- every day -- Kyle throws up two or three posts of prodigious, intimidating length. In my day-to-day life I'm occasionally quizzed as to where I get the time to do things like UFR (answer: "I steal it from children with lukemia"), but good lord Kyle's word count is an order of magnitude greater than mine. And since he's a lawyer in real life, said posts tend to be definitively persuasive last words on the subject.

WINNAH: Every Day Should Be Saturday. I warned you about the Orson Swindle award bukkake, didn't I? Well... Orson Swindle Award bukkake! To reveal why, let's pick a paragraph nearly at random from the front page of EDSBS:

We’ve said it before and wish to repeat the official stance of EDSBS vis-a-vis college football recruiting: it’s really, really creepy. For months–sometimes, years at a time, huge monied institutions buck their noses into the lives of 17 and 18 year old boys and woo them with everything except cash in an attempt to get them to sacrifice three or four years of their lives to play football and mum through a university education simultaneously. It’s a bit like watching a live-action re-enactment of Death In Venice, with universities playing the part of the aging pederast and the recruit being the young object of affection, but minus all the plague and effete homoeroticism. ( This is Amurrica, dammit. Even our homoeroticism needs to look like a Dodge Ram commercial. Heh: Ram.)

So there you go. Orson manages to be funny and convincing all in one go. When he sets his mind to doing something other than be improbably hilarious, he is both improbably hilarious and whatever else he was trying to do.