Preview: Florida

VEQ? Miscommunication, poor scheduling, and a post-Independence-Bowl -drinking-game induced screwup meant Orson and I did not hook up. And yes, I mean it just like that.

So, right. Tomorrow at 1 PM Michigan plays Florida. This is what we know:

• Jim Carty thinks everyone is fat; Mike Hart disagrees.
• We aren't that good.
• Tim Tebow.

Run Offense vs. Florida

Mike Hart's ankle injury seemed innocuous in the aftermath of the Purdue game, but quickly metastasized into a season-crippling disaster that lingered for the rest of the year. Though he played against Michigan State and Ohio State, he missed games against Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and was ineffective even when in the game.

Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown were adequate to good against Illinois and Minnesota, non-factors against Michigan State, and swarmed under against Wisconsin; OSU had a steady diet of TFLs against a gimpy Hart and a lost offensive line.

Florida's 11th-ranked rushing offense appears to pose a stiff test, but a closer look reveals an inconsistent unit that benefited from a soft rushing schedule. Florida State was 96th nationally, South Carolina 101st, and a large portion of the rest of the schedule was Troy and Florida Atlantic and Vandy. Against teams in the same approximate range as Michigan's #44 ranking -- which is may be distorted postively by Michigan's run-pass distribution (56% run) but is also distorted negatively by Hart's extended absence -- this is how Florida did:

Team	Rush Off	Att v UF	Yards v UF	YPC v UF
Tennessee	67	21	37	1.8
Auburn	56	39	125	3.2
LSU	11	52	247	4.75
Kentucky	52	27	139	5.1
Georgia	37	37	203	5.5

(Note that QB and "team" carries were excised for everyone except Auburn's Kodi Burns and LSU's duo -- LSU uses a lot of option and QB draws even with Flynn in the game -- as Florida racked up a large number of sacks in certain games, distorting the totals. Team carries are almost always kneeldowns. Sacks are passing events and will be dealt with in another section.)

This concludes the pulse-bearing rush attack section of the Florida schedule. There is one dominant performance, one pretty good one, and three decidedly meh ones. I tentatively declare Florida's rush defense a paper tiger.

Will this matter given Michigan's downright dismal performances against Wisconsin and Ohio State? I lean towards no. Michigan's scheme has been void of new ideas since the Oregon game and is currently trying to make do with a terribly out-of-shape Alex Mitchell as a starter. Steve Schilling has also been ineffective most of the year, though more prominently in pass pickup, and Carson Butler is guaranteed to pick up one holding penalty and utterly whiff on three other blocks. There are too many points of failure, and Michigan's run offense is probably closer to the Tennessee-Auburn level than that of the three teams that seriously torched

Key Matchup: Mike Hart versus His Traitorous Ankle. I should have an actual matchup for the Ohio State game, but nothing will impact Michigan's run game more than the status of Hart's gimpy wheel.

Pass Offense vs. Florida

Ohio State preview:

This preview assumes that Chad Henne will play; if he does not please substitute "HEAD FOR THE HILLS! ONLY THE STRONG WILL SURVIVE!" for the text in this space.

Henne did play, but was obviously broken. If he remains broken you can feel free to change the channel at halftime. The current state of injury rumor suggests that this may be the case, but we won't know until Henne starts throwing. More ducks like the OSU game and it'll be a long day. If he's on, really on, like Henne at his apex, Michigan can keep it close and maybe pull it out with a bounce or two, but I don't think anyone's banking on that anymore.

This is where the Gator sacks come in: though they racked up huge numbers against Auburn and Kentucky above, Florida was actually pretty average at this: 58th nationally at just over two per game. UF has a couple of decent-to-good defensive ends -- as a true sophomore, Jermaine Cunningham is definitely promising -- but no one on the level of OSU terror Vernon Gholston. With some help for Schilling, Michigan may be able to forestall the Florida pass rush decently. This would allow them access to the Gator achilles heel, their crappy defensive backs. Every time people are surveyed about Michigan's preferred strategy in this game someone says "attack Florida's crappy defensive backs with your excellent receivers," and this makes sense around these parts, too.

The catch: Henne's shoulder was separated in the Illinois game and held together until Wisconsin, at which point he left the game and Michigan collapsed to two straight season-ending losses. Will it be better? Dunno. But I bet you can guess the next section...

Key Matchup: Henne versus his traitorous shoulder. Unless he's a lot better than he was against OSU, we dead.

Run Defense vs. Florida

Ohio State preview:

I'm looking for a way this won't be ugly and can't find one.

What do you get when you combine Armanti Edwards, Chris Wells and jean shorts?


Goddammit. The progenitor of the term "OMG shirtless," Tim Tebow went from uber-recruit to Heisman winner in two years. Michigan's rush defense has had two weaknesses this year: the zone read and interior running. Given this, Tim Tebow is hell in pads. Then there's Kehstan Moore, mighty mite Brandon James, and Percy Harvin.

Percy Harvin. Goddammit. Percy Harvin is also an uber-recruit, and every time I watch him play I'm reminded of this:



Considering that Ohio State's quarterback spent the day doing his best Jimmah Clausen impression and Tressel gave up on anything not totally predictable as soon as he got a two-score lead, Michigan did an okay job on Chris Wells aside from a 62-yard touchdown jaunt and several other trips into the secondary.

Goddammit.

Key Matchup: Uh... Tebow versus cowering.

Pass Defense vs. Florida

This has been a pleasant surprise. Morgan Trent matured into a respectable corner and Donovan Warren has turned out to be worthy of his recruiting hype. Brandon Harrison had a fine year as the teams nickelback and even if the safeties weren't great they were fairly competent. A soft schedule helped, but Michigan still finished the year 13th in pass efficiency defense.

Problem: checking Florida's passing efficiency reveals a big shiny #1. Tebow is not just a runner but an excellent passer; his ability to be a one-man play action only heightens his crazy ninja football skils. Harvin is a terror here, too; three other Florida receivers have more than thirty catches. This is an advanced, diverse, and threatening pass offense that plays off the Florida run game to excellent effect. Maybe Michigan could find a weakness here if they took away said run game -- Florida is even more run-heavy than Michigan, rushing the ball on 58% of their snaps -- but that is extremely unlikely to happen.

Key Matchup: Trent/Warren on Harvin? Hard to pick out anything in particular here, as Brandon Graham stopped being a dominant pass rusher once teams started running at him constantly and there is no #1 threat for Michigan to shut down amongst the panoply of Florida wideouts.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Henne looks un-improved.
  
• The team looks listless. (IE: the team looks like it's looked most of the year.)
  
• Mallett transfers at halftime.
  

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Uh...
  
• Well...
  
• We did hire Rich Rodriguez. And they'll probably talk about that. Cackle then.
  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Chrisanti Edwells, +1 for Yeah, We're Still Frickin' Gimpy, +1 for Not A Virtual Road Game, An Actual Road Game, +1 for And No One Cares, I Bet This Extends To The Players, +1 for Real Chance of Tennessee Replay).

Desperate need to win level: 2 out of 10. (Baseline 5, -3 for Who Cares?, -1 for I'd Rather Watch The 2005 Sugar Bowl, -1 for This Has No Bearing On The Future, +1 for I'd Like To See Hart Win Something, Anything, +1 for SEC Fans Are So Annoying)

Loss will cause me to... UFR WVU games.

Win will cause me to... UFR WVU games.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
We lose bad. This team has been disjointed and disinterested most of the year, and now they know they're in this bowl they don't deserve to be in against a team that's probably a lot better than them; the coaching staff is getting replaced wholesale, to boot.

And we're playing some sort of awful hybrid Michigan kryptonite, and it's a 100% road game, and it appears that one or both of Hart/Henne will not be 100%. Woo! Shoot me.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• 4 Michigan fans attend.
  
• They're pretty pissed off.
  
• Florida, 35-17.
  

Upon Further Review: Defense vs OSU

Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O34	1	10	I-Ginn(?)	Nickel	Run	-1	End-around
So last year Ohio State frequently lined up Ted Ginn just outside of the tackle or right end about five or six yards off the LOS. 90% of the time this was shotgun, and this was dubbed the “Shot-Ginn,” which is fine because jargon like that communicates complex ideas quickly. So OSU's first play is sort of that, except with Boeckman under center, Wells lining up in a standard tailback position, and Ray Small in the shot-ginn position, except of course this isn't the shotgun and this isn't Ted Ginn. But anyway, when OSU does this it will be noted as such. This is a three WR set that gets Michigan in a nickel; Harrison is actually playing as a sort of WLB to Small's side. OSU fakes a dive to Wells, then runs an end-around to Small out of said I-Ginn. Jamison(+1) is unblocked and maintains contain, forcing Small to take a long detour; Will Johnson(+1) uses the time Jamison buys him and takes Small down behind the LOS.
O33	2	11	I-Form	Base 5-2	Run	5	Iso
Player intros: Jim Cordle looks sixteen and Steve Rehring has a future in ogre-dom. Michigan shows eight in the box, then backs out; Ohio State runs it right up the gut. Taylor(-1) doesn't hold up well against a double and Ezeh(-1) is very hesitant, allowing Wells to move up in the hole despite Johnson doing a decent job and CGraham taking out the fullback early.
O38	2	6	Shot-ginn	Nickel	Pass	8	Scramble
Ezeh(+1) reads Boeckman's eyes and starts drifting over towards the slant that Harrison's covering; Harrison's gotten a bit of jam, too. He comes off it (cover +1) and takes off; Ezeh(-1) gives the point right back by overrunning it and allowing the conversion.
O46	1	10	Ace Bunch	Base 4-3	Run	6	Dive
A single back set with two TEs, both of them to the short side of the field; they are inverted; a WR is out there with them. Michigan shifts away from the strength of the formation a bit but has Crable as a sort of short-side corner obviously in zone. They run at the apparent gap in the Michigan formation; BGraham(+1) holds up pretty well and two Michigan players meet Wells for what should be a meh gain; Adams(-1) and Ezeh miss their tackles and allow him to spin three into six.
M48	2	4	Ace Twins	Base 5-2	Run	5	Iso
Taylor(+1) does a great job getting through his man, forcing the fullback to take him. (And take him he does with an absolutely crushing block; not really TT's fault). Still, this is an ISo play stripped of the FB by a DL and it works. Why? CGraham(-1) runs up into a blocker and gets his little stubby arms engulfed. Crable comes around from the backside.
M43	1	10	I-Form	Base 5-2	Run	3	Iso
Michigan stunting here and is unfortunate to be stunting right into a play set up to handle it; BGraham runs right into a guy who's doubled TT and moves to the second level. Ezeh's blitzing himself out of the play; CGraham(-1) is clocked by the FB; big hole. Wells makes a questionable read, cutting it back inside, and falls as BG(+1) gets off his block and forces a cut a bit harder than he wanted.
M40	2	7	I-Form	Base 5-2	Pass	3	PA TE Drag
First pass comes with token draw play action; corners bail out deep and Boeckman checks down. Adams(+1, cover +1) is right there to tackle for minimal gain. (Additional cover +1 for the deep routes.)
M37	3	4	Shot-ginn 5WR	Nickel Press	Pass	Int	Flag
Wow, M in press man with a single deep safety. A very Arkansas w/ Chris Houston thing to do. Boeckman calls TO; M and OSU line up in the same fashion when they come out of the TO. This play is all marginal: Jamo gets cut a bit but stays up, so does he hurry the throw? The throw is a terrible one, way short, on a flag route Trent got torched on. He recovers and manages not to draw a flag by whipping his head around and attempting to locate the ball when he notices Hartline slowing up. Could this be PI? Maybe. Hartline, OTOH, kind of tackles Trent in an attempt to prevent the INT.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0 10 min 1st Q. No surprises so far from the D: bad linebackers kill all. On replay I think Trent has the recovery speed to deal with Hartline on this. Tressel punts on 3rd and 4 from the 37 and gets what he deserves: touchback.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O32	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	6	Out
Trent in very soft coverage on Robiskie; OSU takes the easy out, though it's looped and this removes any YAC opportunity. (Cover -1)
O38	2	4	Ace Bunch	Base 5-2	Run	1	Delay Iso(?)
Same setup on both sides of the ball as the previous Ace Bunch play; M clearly has a gameplan for this. Crable(+1) is blitzing off the snap; since he's very nominally lined up as a corner the TEs ignore him and he's in unblocked, albeit from a position not often associated with success. He gets hand on the passing Wells; Johnson(+1) has fought inside his man and ends the play. Taylor effectively singled blocked by Cordle. As for Iso(?): there's no FB, but the play is a delayed handoff and the RG pulls around to act much like a lead blocker would.
O39	3	3	Ace 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	5	Short In
Play design is clearly a pick w/ the TE coming to rub as the WR takes a little in route. M is in zone, which should be advantage M. CGraham can't get there in time, but this was generally well executed by OSU and it's hard to blame him. Immediate tackle.
O44	1	10	Shotgun Empty 2TE	Base 4-3	Pass	-5	Fumbled Snap
Right, you're all like ??? about the formatioin, but yeah there you go: base personnel for OSU, Wells split wide. Would have been interesting to see what they intended to do with this, but this is the first Boeckman fumble pratfall. Probably irrelevant, as a clever blitz got Crable(+1) in unblocked in the interior. (Pressure +1)
O39	2	15	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	-8	Free sack
Adams comes up as a seventh guy in the box, and again we don't know what would happen because as Boeckman drops to throw, presumably deep with his 7-step drop, he slips to the turf.
O31	3	23	I-Form 3-wide	Nickel	Run	-5	Counter
A give-up-and-punt playcall that doesn't even get the five or so yards it should because Michigan stunts into it; Jamison(+1) blows his guy into the backfield – his guy is an interior lineman! -- and forces Wells to change direction; he slips, too.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0 6 min 1st Q. I liked those plays.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O27	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	15 (pen)	Fade
Adams up as a blitzer, Michigan in an aggressive press again with a cover-one behind it. Warren(-2) does interfere here, getting behind Robiskie and grabbing him to prevent a completion. (Cover -1)
O42	1	10	I-Form Big	Jumbo 5-3	Run	2	Iso
Pollack in as the SLB. They again double Taylor and attack the gap between him and BG – part of the gameplan to go after BG, who was pretty shaky against MSU's power running? Ezeh(+1) manages to get the guard peeling off the double on his heels a bit, forcing Wells to slow in the hole. BG(+1) has beaten his guy to the inside and comes back to tackle; Adams also there. BG leaves the game, injured.
O44	2	8	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	4	Delay
Adams brought as a late blitzer; both LBs charging at the snap. A lead delay; CGraham(+1) reads it well and avoids the peeling C, leaving two LBs against one blocker. CGraham makes contact at the LOS... and misses the tackle(-1). He did slow him enough for help to arrive relatively quickly.
O48	3	4	Shot-ginn	Nickel	Pass	-6	Free sack
Wells motions out; Boeckman drops to throw and drops the ball without provocation. Another free sack.
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-0, 15 min 2nd Q. They had a Clausen exorcism after this.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
M44	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	1	Delay
Same play as the Delay Iso earlier; this time CGraham(+1) attacks it well, getting to the FB in the backfield and making a tackle at the LOS.
M43	2	9	I-Form Big	Jumbo 5-3	Pass	5	Waggle
Delay fake and a Boeckman rollout; the TE has gotten outside Crable(-1); Adams(+1) reads it and tracks him down for minimal YAC. (Cover -1)
M38	3	4	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	9	Slant
Quick drop; Harrison(-1, cover -1) beat in one-on-one man.
M29	1	10	Ace Bunch	Base 5-2	Pass	7	Out
Trent in soft coverage and OSU takes advantage. (Cover -1)
M22	2	3	I-Form Twins	Base 5-2	Run	5	Iso
Taylor(-1) blown out and buried by a single block. Ezeh clubbed out of the hole by the FB; no chance to prevent the first.
M17	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	12	Delay
Pulling guard takes out Crable blitzing from the outside and an ill-fated stunt gets Jamison out of the outside lane. result: acres. Englemon(-1) misses a tackle after a few yards; Adams tracks Wells down at the five.
M5	1	G	Shotgun Empty	Nickel	Run	4	QB Draw
Empty backfield inside the five? Not technically an ISQD, but as close as you can get. Ezeh(+1) actually does a great job of plowing the pullling guard and getting a hand on Boeckman to prevent the TD.
M1	2	G	Goal-line	Goal-line	Run	1	Iso
Well, when Wells meets Brandent Englemon head-on needing a yard we all know how that battle ends.
Drive Notes: TD, 3-7, 10 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O39	1	10	I-Form	Base 5-2	Run	8	Iso
Big gap opens up between BGraham(-1) and Johnson(-1). Michigan's linebackers are on a stunt blitz; CGraham does a good job getting to the right side of the FB, but the hole's too big to close.
O47	2	2	I-Form Big	Base 5-3	Run	1	Iso
Jamison(+2) gets inside the tackle and forces the pulling guard to take him, then slips past said guard to make a tackle for no gain.
O48	3	1	I-Form Big	Base 5-2	Run	2	Iso
Well played by M; Wells bowls over Banks for the first.
50	1	10	Ace Twins	Base 5-2	Pass	Inc	Deep comeback
Plenty of time as M rushes four (pressure -1); Taylor is particularly ineffective. Boeckman waits, then throws awkwardly off his back foot; ball is off target. Coverage evidently good. (Cover +1)
50	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Screen
Either well-read or poorly executed; Crable reads this and makes the throw a bit difficult by leaping in the passing lane; tough catch for Wells and it's dropped. Wasn't going anywhere anyway. (Cover +1)
50	3	10	Ace 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	3	Scramble
Jamison(+1) swims outside the tackle, then slashes up past the TE to get to Boeckman before the play can develop. Boeckman scrambles out as Jamison misses the tackle, but this drive's over (Pressure +2).
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-7, 5 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O4	1	10	I-Form Big	Jumbo 5-3	Run	3	Iso
Standard: distressing hole, good FB block and decent LB play; Adams comes up to tackle.
O7	2	7	I-Form Big	Base 5-3	Run	1	Iso
Taylor(+1) plows his guy back and into the path of the FB; Wells cuts behind and has unblocked players up the wazoo. Good job by Banks to flow down the line, too.
O8	3	6	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	0	Draw
Taylor(+2) shoots past his guy and is hog-tied to the ground, drawing a holding flag. Wells falls over the mess, ending the drive.
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-7, 2 min 2nd Q. Tressel has already pulled in the horns, no?
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O20	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	4	Draw
Should really be a no-gainer as both linebackers have shown up in the approximate hole well and there's only one blocker. CGraham(+1) cuts off the inside; Ezeh(-1) somehow manages to get shoved and contrives to let Wells between himself and the OL.
O24	2	6	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	7	Delay
Warren comes up, forcing Wells inside of him; Graham(-1) has gotten blocked out of the play but Ezeh has beaten his blocker... just in time to get run over by Wells. Is this his fault? I dunno.
O31	1	10	I-Form	Base 5-2	Pass	15	Stop
Boeckman has all day despite a blitzer (pressure -2), eventually finding Robiskie open for a 15-ish yard gain in front of Warren, well off. (Cover -1)
O46	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	-2	Sack
CGraham is flaring out to cover a short TE out and in doing so looks like he's about to cover Boeckman's slant; Boeckman hesitates. (Cover +1). Jamison(+1, pressure +1) bowls over Wells and Boeckman decides to attempt to scramble, getting nowhere.
O44	2	12	???	???	Pass	Int	Duck
Tape only has a replay of this. Crable(+1) shoots in on a blitz, inducing Boeckman to fling a duck off his back foot that Englemon makes an easy interception off of. (Pressure +2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 3-7, 30 sec 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O38	1	10	I-Form Twins	Base 5-2	Run	62	Iso
A simple iso play is the game-killing dagger, and the fault is all on the safeties. Adams(-2) is coming forward at the snap but fails to fill the hole between Crable and Banks, instead getting caught inside where Ezeh is taking on the FB. Banks gets a -1 for getting driven back badly and making this a more difficult play for Adams. So this puts Wells into the secondary for what should be a 20-yarder or so; Englemon(-2) is in position to make a tackle but overruns it, falling, and Wells runs to the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 3-14, 14 min 3rd Q. Sadly, the main thought in my head was “this game's over” and that didn't seem like unwarranted pessimism to anyone around me.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O32	1	10	Ace	Base 5-2	Run	6	Iso
Taylor(-1) gets a bit of a bump from a second man after standing up the first guy; this knocks him off kilter and he ends up pancaked. BGraham(-1) failed to take advantage of the opportunity to get inside the tackle and there's a gaping hole that linebackers can only close after a significant gain.
O38	2	4	I-Form Twins	Base 5-2	Run	12	Iso
Ezeh(-1) stood up by the blocker; BG(-1) completely dominated by the LT. Adams misses a tackle and Wells looks like he could be headed for the endzone until he slips to the ground.
50	1	10	I-Form	Base 5-2	Run	1	Iso
Englemon an additional guy in the box, allowing both linebackers to come up into the hole, which is between the C and G. CGraham(+1), unblocked, sticks Wells in the hole.
M49	2	9	I-Form Twins	Base 4-3	Run	4	Iso
Saine in. A Crable blitz blows up the FB in the backfield and forces Saine outside, where CGraham(-1) should have an angle for a no-gain tackle; he overruns it and misses it. The Crable-induced delay means this is only a mediocre gain anyway.
M45	3	5	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	6	Delay
Taylor(-1) crushed backwards by a double team; Michigan is blitzing Ezeh from the outside leaving only CGraham to combat this run up the middle. He actually does a decent job given the situation – Taylor's inability to hold the POA has made it impossible to flow to the ball. It's still a first down as Saine manages to fall forward.
M39	1	10	I-Form Twins	Base 5-2	Run	2	Iso
Slocum in, getting decent push. Ezeh is submarined by the FB; Slocum(+1) peels off to tackle after a small gain.
M37	2	8	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	3	Delay
Both safeties moving to the LOS at the snap. Englemon fills a hole near the LOS; OSU simply doesn't have enough blockers to get a hat on him.
M34	3	5	Shot-ginn	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Inc	Throwaway
Harrison(+1) sent on a corner blitz and is roped to the ground; no call. Since Boeckman doesn't know Harrison's going to get tackled, he starts scrambling around, eventually throwing the ball away. (Pressure +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 8 min 3rd Q. The remote defensibility of this OSU punt is sad, sad, sad.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O36	1	10	I-Form	Base 5-2	Run	23	Iso
Will Johnson(-2) is momentarily doubled, then hurled to the ground. He was caught out as the NT on this play as OSU switched the strongside by motioning the tight end and Michigan didn't do their customary tackle flip. CGraham has to deal with the Johnson chipper and cannot – no surprise at this point in his career. Wells into the secondary.
M41	1	10	Ace Bunch	Base 5-2	Run	4	Iso
TE from the bunch comes in motion to act as a lead blocker; another Iso. This one goes better as Johnson manages to hold up decently, though not exactly spectacularly. The chip guy is delayed and can't get out in time to block Ezeh; Johnson dives at Wells' feet near the LOS; the two combine to tackle.
M37	2	6	I-Form	Base 5-2	Run	0	Iso
Taylor(+1) stands up a couple blockers, jamming up the intended POA, and Ezeh fills the weakside hole at the LOS. Wells slips trying to cut.
M37	3	6	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	-2	Draw
Michigan blitzing right into this; Ezeh(+1) evades Cordle and is into the backfield, as is Adams.
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 4 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O19	1	10	I-Form Twins	Base 5-2	Run	-1	Iso
Safety blitz from Englemon forces Wells to cut away from the FB. Taylor(+1) has stood up a single block and Ezeh cuts in to make a TFL.
O18	2	11	I-Form Big	Jumbo 5-3	Run	1	Iso
Patterson(+1), slanting, occupies one blocker and plows him into a second; Wells soon follows. He bounces off, then meets Crable.
O19	3	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	Inc	Waggle
Jamison(+1) maintains QB responsibility – not hard on third and ten – forcing Boeckman to chuck it into the ground. (Pressure +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O9	1	10	I-Form Big	Jumbo 5-3	Run	3	Iso
Right, same thing as before. Ezeh scrapes well and Englemon fills.
O12	2	7	Ace Bunch	Base 5-2	Run	0	Delay
Nine guys near the LOS, Michigan swarming to the ball as OSU runs the only run play they've used out of this formation today.
O12	3	7	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	3	Zone left
Give up and punt.
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 11 min 4th Q. Tressel has packed it in, obviously.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O26	1	10	I-Form Twins	Base 5-2	Run	5	Iso
Good job by Johnson; Ezeh(-1) crushed downfield and pancaked.
O31	2	5	I-Form	Base 5-2	Run	4	Iso
Okay. I don't care. I just don't care. Something happens on this play and Ohio State gains four yards.
O35	3	1	I-Form Big	Base 5-2	Run	0	Iso
Still don't care.
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 8 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Def	Type	Yards	Brief
O33	1	10	I-Form Big	Base 5-2	Run	4	Iso
Good job by Crable(+1) to cut off the outside; Ezeh defeats the FB block and tackles.
O37	2	6	I-Form Big	Base 5-2	Run	-1	Iso
Slocum in; pushes his guy back into the backfield and tackles for loss.
O36	3	7	Shot-ginn	Nickel	Run	-6	Counter draw
Jamison shoots in unblocked and ends this in the backfield.
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 4 min 4th Q. This game has ended.

You don't care?

Uh... sorry. This enterprise has seemed irrelevant, though. What does it tell us about Michigan's future? Virtually nothing, as the coaches are gone and this 3-3-5 stack is coming in. What does it tell us about Michigan's game against Florida? Virtually nothing, as Florida runs an offense diametrically opposed to Ohio State's. Pants.

Well, the performance seemed okay.

The defense gets an incomplete, IMO. A couple first-half drives were stopped by (literal) pratfall instead of any swarming viciousness on the part of Wolverine defenders; Tressel packed up shop after the Wells touchdown run, figuring that an obviously-broken Henne and an offensive line that couldn't block anyone (this, on one particular play, was also literal) was not likely to throw up two touchdowns in the second half. And it's just not that hard to stop an offense that doesn't complete a pass, as anyone who read the offensive UFR knows.

Chart?

Chart.

Player	+	-	T	Notes
Jamison	7	-	7	After a dismal performance versus Wisconsin, was the D's best player.
Johnson	2	4	-2	Ineffective.
Taylor	6	4	2	Positive day, but a disappointing one nonetheless. Given his status as Michigan's most consistently disruptive DT and the steady diet of iso plays, he should have had a bigger impact.
B. Graham	3	3	0	Meh.
Crable	4	1	3
Slocum	2	-	2	Shaping up to be a force next year.
Ferrara	-	-	-
Patterson	1	-	1
Banks	-	1	-1
Thompson	-	-	-	DNP, I think.
Ezeh	4	5	-1	Needs to make a leap next year.
C. Graham	4	5	-1
Logan	-	-	-
Trent	-	-	-	Gave up a couple outs, otherwise not tested much.
Harrison	1	1	0	Mostly watched.
Warren	-	2	-2	Just the one PI.
Adams	2	3	-1
Englemon	-	3	-3	Critical missed tackle on the long Wells TD.
Brown	-	-	-
"Pressure"	7	3	4	Hardly any throwing, but a decent job of getting to Boeckman when he did.
"Coverage"	6	6	0	Meh.

Heroes?

Jamison was a standout, frequently getting to guys in the backfield and not being directly liable for any of the long Wells runs.

Goats?

Taylor should have done better against a steady diet of interior running; the linebackers were meh; the safeties combined to yield OSU's second touchdown.

What does it mean for Florida?

As noted, not much.

Upon Further Review: "Offense" Vs OSU

Just don't. I know it's here. That doesn't mean you have to read it. Every play found worthy has a video clip associated with it.

Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M20	1	10	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Bomb
OSU in a base set; Michigan gets tricky by not running zone left on the first play of the game. It's a straight go route and it's well covered and it's badly underthrown and to the inside and it is not, in fact, all that clever. (IN, 0, protection 2/2) Good coverage everywhere, btw.
M20	2	10	I-Form	Run	6	Hart	Draw
Neither is the second-and-ten draw particularly clever, and Ohio State has a safety rolled up so he's nearly in the box at the snap, and he's moving forward, and just... well. I think it's kind of fitting the Carr-Debord era ended with these two shocking playcalls Michigan had clearly set OSU up for all season – we run left first play always lol – and they just didn't work. Fish. Anyway, this probably shouldn't work but Mitchell (+1) gets a great, crushing block on his guy and drives him downfield and Laurinaitis gets caught up in wash he shouldn't and Hart has a seam.
M26	3	4	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Circle
Or a zag or something. This doesn't actually have a circle but it's a slant-out, and it's open for the first down. Henne overthrows it. (IN, 1, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 10 min 4th Q. This will quickly become the story of the day: Henne is just broken. Well. There are competing stories, the other being “AAARGH SCHILLING”.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M36	1	10	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	8	Manningham	Out
Wide open out that should probably go for a first, looped out all Clausen-like, though, and kept down. Henne obviously has no arm strength. (CA-, 3, protection 1/1)
M44	2	2	?	Run	5	Hart	?
We miss this play recapping Michigan's season.
M49	1	10	Ace Twins	Pass	Inc	McLaurin	Waggle
Butler kept in to block on the waggle side, so Henne has plenty of time. He fires well high of a covered McLaurin, but it appeared everyone was completely covered and he had nowhere to go; the decision here was probably the best available: try to make a near-impossible throw to a well-covered guy. This is sad. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M49	2	10	Ace Twins	Run	9	Hart	Inside Zone
Very well blocked. Long crushes the nearside DT; Kraus gets his head across the weakside DT, and Boren, executing a zone double w/ Long, helps kick out the Dt then crushes Freeman. Hart bursts into the secondary, spinning through Freeman for near first-down yardage. (+1 for all! They're not tracked, but who cares!)
O42	3	1	I-Form Big	Pass	5	Arrington	Long handoff
Arrington's brought in motion and, as is often the case in these situations, the corner is forced to loop around his defense to follow and is not able to press at the LOS. This gets Arrington the room to catch this ball and make first-down yardage. I like this call and how aware it is of little football fobiles. (CA, 3)
O37	1	10	Ace Twins	Run	6	Hart	Iso
We come to this play late, but just in time to see it happen. Kraus(+1) is doubling a DT with Mitchell as two OSU LBs fire into the hole; Moundros chops Freeman as Kraus does a fantastic job to make a late peel and pick off Laurnaitis, allowing Hart a cutback lane behind him and a significant gain.
O31	2	4	Ace	Pass	6	Butler	Stop
A number of short zone stretch routes designed to pick up the first down by providing Henne easy targets; Butler comes open and Henne hits him. Ver' nice pickup from Hart on Gholston on a protection slide. (CA, 3 protection 1/1)
O25	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	12	Hart	Inside Zone
I was informed by a couple people that the block previously termed “handoff” in a bit of made-up jargon was actually a “scoop” block; this is a scoop blocked play. Boren fires off in to the DT and hands him off to Kraus; Kraus then pounds the guy backwards. Mitchell(+1) gets a nice downfield cut on Freeman and once Hart pops through the scoop-created hole he's got room to motor.
O13	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	-1	Hart	Zone left
OSU blitzes right into this with perfect timing; Freeman into the backfield unblocked, forcing a cutback. Hart slips and falls; if he hadn't there was the possibility to pick up a few yards.
O14	2	11	I-Form Twins	Pass	-6	--	Sack
Gholston completely destroys Schilling(-3). Gholston then sacks. No chance for Henne, who would have had a shot at Arrington on a post for a TD otherwise. (PR, 0, protection 0/3)
O20	3	17	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	5	Butler	TE Out
Pretty bad decision here spurred by an OSU blitz. It's picked up and there's man cover all over the field. Henne takes the dumpoff that gets Michigan very little. Tenuously CA, but suspicious. (CA-, 3, protection 3/3)
Drive Notes: FG, 3-0, 1 min 1st Q. Goodbye, scoring.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M18	1	10	Ace 3-Wide	Run	-1	Hart	Zone counter
Difficult to tell what happens here, but Butler pulls around a la those plays against Oregon, but Hart does not cut back, instead running into Gholston, who's beaten Schillng at the line. Failure there was irrelevant though, as Freeman was unblocked due to the TE pull. Misread by Hart, IMO.
M17	2	11	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Out
Hart offset and Butler out wide; pass all the way. Henne throws an out to Tacopants that's nearly intercepted. It's at this point his ain't-rightness is an obvious factor. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M17	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	-7	--	Sack
Long(-1) not infallible! OSU sends the two guys on the right side of the line on a late developing stunt that gets the DT in through a gap between Long and Boren. Falling, the DT sacks Henne, though he had time to survey the field for a bit previous. (TA, 0, protection 1/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-0, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M20	1	10	I-Form Big	Run	3	Hart	Zone left
OSU's DT shoots past Boren(-1); Hart manages to move past him. Mitchell's lost his block on the backside, otherwise Hart might have a hole on the interior. As it is he's forced to run up Long's back a nd get what he can.
M23	2	7	I-Form	Run	1	Hart	Zone left
A late cut to the play because we're focused on the band. Anger! Hard to tell what happens as a result, but one of the OSU DTs has dove forward and taken out a couple of Michigan OL. Freeman is unblocked, and Hart gets nowhere.
M24	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	10	Manningham	Comeback
This might have been an out or something. As it is, it's a comeback that floats out to Manningham. It's short; Manningham does a good job to dig it out. (CA-, 2, protection 2/2)
M34	1	10	Ace	Run	-10 (pen)	Hart	Zone left
I don't know what Hart's thinking here, as the Buckeye LB is clearly set up outside of Butler here and there's a potential lane to cut up in. He takes it outside, where Butler(-1) duly holds his guy, still doesn't block him very well. Washington comes up for the TFL.
M24	1	20	Ace 3-Wide	Run	0	Hart	Draw
Hey, guess who's not fooled even a little bit by this? Those guys. Freeman bolts into the backfield unblocked.
M24	2	20	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Out
Thrown well upfield and glances off Manningham's diving hand. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M24	3	20	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	--	Throwaway
Schilling(-2) owned by Gholston. Henne rolls out and throws it away. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-7, 7 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M21	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	2	Hart	FB Zone counter
We shoot the FB to the backside DE, so this is sort of a counter. Problem: eight guys in the box; Mitchell is blown back by the DT here, allowing Laurinaitis in unblocked; the eighth guy in the box comes through the weakside hole. Hart has nowhere to go.
M23	2	8	Ace 4-wide	Pass	5	Manningham	Out
Hart lined up at WR but motions in; M takes an out to Manningham. No zip on these. (CA-, 3, protection 1/1)
M28	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	--	Throwaway
Gholston owns Schilling(-2); Henne hit as he throws. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-7, 3 min 2nd Q. Zoltan murders a punt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
50	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Stop
Stop route right in Manningham's hands is dropped, though it was going for five at most as someone was shooting out into the flat. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
50	2	10	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	5	Mathews	Circle
Completed for a decent gain, but again looped out and little YAC opportunity. We're also avoiding the middle of the field like whoah. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O45	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Skinny post
Henne's best throw of the day so far, a skinny post that's a little behind Manningham but for good reason, as it needs to fit in a place in the zone. Eminently catchable all the same; Manningham drops it. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-7, 2 min 2nd Q. A truly killer drop there, and a truly killer missed opportunity going into the half.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
O36	1	10	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Out
Thrown late, giving Jenkins an opportunity to break on it, and sailed. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O36	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	--	Throwaway
Good protection; Henne pumps once then throws it to no one in particular. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O36	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	3	Manningham	Drag
Checkdown; OSU has it well covered and there's no YAC. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG (48), 3-7, EOH.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M14	1	10	I-Form	Run	-1	Hart	Zone left
Kraus(-2) gets driven back into the path of the FB, who piles into him; Hart soon follows. Result: loss.
M13	2	11	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Hart	Screen
Freeman is all over this, actually batting it down like a DB. We used to be good at these, right? (CA, 0)
M13	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Out
Thrown wide, well into the sideline. No chance for Arrington. Well covered, FWIW. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-7, 14 min 3rd Q. Well, that's an inspiring way to start the second half. Wells goes for a touchdown on the next play from scrimmage and Michigan is looking at a two-score deficit.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M19	1	10	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	8	Butler	Stop
The multiple-stops we run with some frequency. Henne comes off Arrington and eventually finds Butler for a moderate gain. Good protection. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M27	2	2	Ace 3-Wide	Run	-1	Hart	Zone left
Excellently timed corner blitz gets Jenkins in unblocked and turns this play into no gain. It's like they have some idea what we'll run. Without the blitz this is meh but likely enough for the first down.
M26	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Mathews	Slant
Completely overthrown. Hello, Tacopants. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M18	1	10	Ace Twins	Pass	5	Butler	Waggle
Standard TE dumpoff that looks open for a nice gain; OSU closes quickly. (CA, 3)
M23	2	5	I-Form Twins	Run	-3	Hart	Inside Zone
Must be some miscommunication, because Mitchell doubles down on Gholston as Kraus moves to the second level, leaving a DT wholly unblocked; he engulfs Hart.
M20	3	8	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Drag
Woo! Tacopants! Not going for more than two yards even if completed. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 6 min 3rd Q. Next drive is Mallett's.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M20	1	10	???	???	0	Hart	Zone left(?)
We're watching Henne trot off the field as the play snaps, and so miss the privelige of watching Carson Butler (probably) whiff badly. Hart snowed under after no gain.
M20	2	10	I-Form	Pass	8	Arrington	Out
Good protection; Mallett provides a throw with actual velocity, but it's behind Arrington, forcing him to the ground to catch this ball and removing any YAC possibilities. (CA-, 2, protection 2/2)
M28	3	2	I-Form Big	Run	6	Hart	Zone right
OSU slants right tat the snap and attempts to shoot a linebacker between Gholston and a blitzing Jenkins, but Helmuth manages to get enough of Jenkins, Gholston's slant takes him out of the play, and Butler actually gets a good block. There's a hole, and Michigan gets the first down.
M34	1	10	I-Form	Pass	15 (pen)	Arrington	Out
Well, sort of. Jenkins is all over Arrington here, drawing an obvious PI... except that the ball is ten yards past the pair as it looks like Mallett's throwing a flag and Arrington's running an out. Probably should have been uncatchable, though you might have gotten Jenkins for holding anyway.
M49	1	10	I-Form	Run	-8 (pen)	Hart	Zone left
So Michigan's actually got something resembling a drive started, Hart finds a crease and goes for eight on first down, and what brings it back? If you said “Carson Butler holding penalty,” give yourself a pat on the back. But a small one: this trivia is strictly $200 Jeopardy! stuff.
M41	1	18	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	-6	--	Sack
Gholston destroys Long(-2) this time and sacks Mallett. Michigan's run the “everyone stop” routes again, which OSU has covered well, and Mallett's hesitation ends poorly. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M35	2	24	Ace 3-Wide	Pass	Inc	Mathews	Seam
Hey, Mallett, if we wanted our QB to overthrow his receiver by yards we'd have Henne in. Mmmm. Bitter. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M35	3	24	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Wheel
Arrington's beaten Washington downfield here and actually has a shot at a catch and run for the first down; Mallett throws it well behind him. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 1 min 3rd Q. Henne returns.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
O46	1	10	Ace Twins	Pass	Inc	Manningham	Waggle
A bit of a variant here with the TEs staying in to block the weakside DE. Henne has all day to throw and tries for Manningham deep; well underthrown. (IN, 1, protection 2/2)
O46	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Run	-1	Manningham	End-around
Mark Moundros 1) doesn't line up on the LOS out at WR and 2) completely whiffs his block on Washington. Result: loss.
O47	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	-2	--	Fiasco
Oh, I'd forgotten about this one. Henne believes he's doing a check, lifting his leg then approaching the center to bark out an audible; the center snaps the ball into his chin. Fumble.
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-14, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M30	1	10	I-Form	Pass	15 (pen)	Manningham	Waggle
Similar setup to the last waggle bomb; this time an OSU DB takes a flagrant PI.
M45	1	10	I-Form Twins	Run	-1	Hart	Zone left
Vijay's infamous screenshot play.
M44	2	11	I-Form	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Deep cross
And, of course, when Henne actually finds an open receiver downfield and hits him the guy drops it. (CA+, 2, protection 2/2)
M44	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Drag
An attempted dumpoff, as Henne has sat and surveyed but now things being to collapse. Well behind Arrington, not going for the first anyway. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: AAAAAAAAAARGH AAAAAAARGH AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH AAAAAAAAAAARHG
Ln	Dn	Ds	Form	Type	Yards	Player	Brief
M32	1	10	I-Form Twins	Pass	-8	--	Sack
Eight minutes left in the game, two score deficit, we still have a fullback around. We run play action; Henne drops to throw deep; Gholston owns Schilling(-2) and clubs Henne to the ground. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M24	2	18	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	7	Manningham	Slant
Accurate; OSU playing off. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M31	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	Pass	Inc	Arrington	Post
Gholston crushes Schilling(-3), knocking him over, and pressures Henne. Henne nearly throws an interception as a result. (BR, 0, protection 0/3)
Drive Notes: AAAAAAAAAARGH AAAAAAARGH AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH AAAAAAAAAAARHG. With 6 minutes left in a two-score game and Michigan punting, this charting bullshit is over.

Let's get this over with.

Amen.

Charts?

Charts.

Mallett
Team	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Oregon (1/2)	3	7	2	3	1	1	2
ND	2	7	4	1	0	2	0
PSU	3	12	6	3	6	1	2
NW (1/2)	2	5	4	1	1	1	1
Illinois (1/3)	0	4	2	2	0	1	0
Minnesota	3	9	7	1	3	2	1
Wisconsin	3	13	11	6	2	1	2
OSU	0	1	2	0	0	0	1
Henne
Team	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
The Horror	2	22	8	2	1	0	2
Oregon (1/2)	1	13	6	3	1	0	3
NW (1/2)	1	19	4	1	1	1	0
EMU	4	16	1	0	1	2	1
Purdue	3	20	1	1	1	1	2
Illinois (2/3)	5	15	4	0	1	1	3
MSU	5	14	9	3	1	1	3
Wisco (Brief)	0	3	2	0	0	0	0
OSU	1	13	12	1	1	0	4

(Hennemallettchart Legend)

Despite missing a drive, Henne set a new UFR record for INs; collectively Michigan QBs piled up 14 between them. Applying our standard Metric of Suck -- remove screens, add CA + DO, put in a ratio with IN + BR + TA -- yields 12 good results and 14 poor ones, a 46% success rate. This sucks butt, but not quite as much as Mallett's Wisconsin game; Henne's 2005 Wisconsin game remains his low point.

Of course, there's one obvious reason this happened: Henne's separated shoulder. He was obviously broken and it's hard to blame him for that performance.

Argh! Gholston!

That guy has got to be on roids.

Protection: 40/55. Schilling -12, Long -3.

Awful, and every minus received was because of Gholston.

Receivers?

Ye observe balls flying ten yards over your head!

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Manningham	4	0/2	1/2	4/4		35	3/18	14/18	55/59
Arrington	2	-	1/2	1/1		17	6/14	20/25	33/36
Mathews	-	-	-	1/1		4	1/7	3/7	25/27
Hemingway	-	-	-	-		3	-	-	2/2
Massey	-	-	-	-		2	0/3	1/1	3/3
Butler	-	-	-	4/4		1	0/2	1/1	17/17
Webb	-	-	-	-		2	-	-	-
McLaurin	1	-	-	-		1	-	-	-
Hart	-	-	-	-		4	-	-	9/9
Minor	-	-	-	-		1	-	0/1	3/3
Moundros	-	-	-	-		-	0/1	1/1	1/1

Basically irrelevant, though the two opportunities Michigan receivers had to make big catches were dropped.

Goats?

Everybody.

Heroes?

Pfffft.

What does it mean for Florida?

If Henne is not healthy we have no chance. If he playing at his apex we have a shot. Our running game is uncreative and full of fail and, like everything Mike Debord does, makes babies cry. We should use our killer wideouts and attack the Florida secondary, the Gators' weak point, but we might have to do so with the burned out husk of Henne or Mallett's suck festival.

Delay!

So, right, the game was on my hard drive... the external one that I left in Ann Arbor. I have re-downloaded and will get crackin', but bump back everything a day if you please.

Stocking Stuffers

Cartoon by Joel A Morgan.

Merry Christmas. I'm out until after the holiday. Enjoy the following gifts:

• MVictors is putting together various "Michigan Memorabilia Vaults".
  
  
  Up are the 40s and 50s, the 20s and 30s, and all stuff previous.
• Smart Football analyzes the shotgun's history as a rushing offense, citing the 54-51 Northwestern game as the signal flare that really initiated the spread renaissance and declaring Rich Rodriguez "the Johnny Appleseed of the spread."
• As EDSBS points out, both CNN doctorguy Sanjay Gupta and House (the character) went to Michigan. Word.
• Don't play the Michigan fight song over and over again in West Virginia.
• Facebook Groups about Rich Rodriguez are a little nasty. I joined "Michigan... Taking West Virginia's Athletic Department 1 Person At A Time."
• SMQB makes his annual playoff plea, deftly skewering the warped logic put forth by playoff opponents (though he concedes "who needs a national champion anyway?" is a valid objection, as do I).
• Slaton and White gush about S&C guy Barwis.

See you after Christmas.

Update: Not so fast! Via Varsity Blue: Fred Jackson has been re-hired (woo McGuffie!) and was told that two more assistants may be retained. Steve Stripling was put forth in Chengelis' article yesterday; Campbell and Loeffler would seem to be the other candidates to stay.

Update II: Two items of interest from Pinfall Marks. An article on recruiting:

WVU safeties coach Bruce Tall recruited [OH WR DJ] Woods, but a team source said Sunday Rodriguez wanted Tall on his staff at Michigan.

"Michigan is a very serious option now," Woods said. "I committed to West Virginia because of the coaching staff, but I started thinking about Michigan when Coach Rod called me and told me he was taking everyone with him."

And one on Mike Barwis, the S&C guy we're also giddy about:

"I think it would be huge for Michigan," said Beilein, whose father, John, coached WVU's men's basketball team for five seasons before moving to Michigan in April.

"I didn't get to see football too much when I was there and I didn't interact with them as much as I did with Barwis, but I know he'd be a great addition if it happens for every sport and not just football. He gets involved and gets his guys working around the clock."

Holiday Schedule

12/22 - 12/26: Nonstop 'Sheed Jingle Bells on repeat:



No blogging.

12/27 & 12/28: Ohio State UFR. Merry Christmas.
12/29: (Ideally) Orson-style VEQ.
12/30: Citrus Preview.
12/31: Off.

May be some wiggle in here, but the four things above I promise by the New Year.

Housecleaning

Detroit News:

ANN ARBOR -- Incoming Michigan football coach Rich Rodriguez has fired all nine current assistant coaches.

There is a possibility defensive line coach Steve Stripling may be rehired.

Rodriguez, who was on campus Wednesday and Thursday to meet with football operations personnel and observe bowl practices, sat down with the coaches one by one on Thursday and to give each the news.

Wow. This is not entirely surprising, since Rodriguez said he would be bringing not only his spread offense from West Virginia but his 3-3-5 defense, which is an "odd stack" and therefore an odd duck the current staff is unfamiliar with. I kind of expected a few holdovers for recruiting continuity.

About that recruiting continuity: a common thing for recruits to say is "I'm still committed, but I'd like to see what happens with coach X." Well, Coach X is going to be somewhere else next year. Might have a decommit or two now; with Fred Jackson gone the McGuffie warning klaxons are going full-bore.

This should also dispel any conspiracy theories about Rodriguez being forced to keep so and so because, well, obviously. He's the man, man. And since everyone's getting paid this year if they don't latch on elsewhere there's not much to mourn. It'll be interesting to see where the discarded coaches end up, as it'll be an acid test of their attractiveness to the coaching community. Ron English, rumored to be under consideration as UW's DC, seems likely to land on his feet. Certain others... not so much.

Fiascotime Post-Mortem

A question: was this blog useful at all during the coaching search?

The traffic numbers indicate that it was at least interesting, but in the end the stuff on this blog couldn't have been more wrong. There was a ten minute window during which

• MGoBlog had a post in which it noted the WVU message boards had done a sudden 180, and
• said 180 had not reached the mainstream media.

If you managed to visit the blog in this brief window you had accurate insight into Michigan's next coach you could not have gotten elsewhere. The cost was a nonstop avalanche of stuff that induced panic, made Bill Martin a sailboat pariah, and made everyone depressed for the better part of a month.

Then, bam: Rodriguez! Don't we all look foolish. Most especially me.

This blog has always been pretty gung-ho on the information available on the internet. With proper safeguards -- multiple independent-seeming reports, basically, and hopefully a couple of them from people bearing track records -- there is stuff out there that can be gleaned that cannot be gleaned otherwise, at at a remarkably high accuracy level. I still believe this.

Just not about coaching searches.

Things the internet said over the past month:

• Ferentz has not only been offered but accepted the job (multiply sourced!)
• Miles told his team he was accepting the Michigan job.
• Rodriguez was staying at WVU.
  

And it could have been worse: during the Schiano Era a good source indicated that Schiano had accepted the job. I was spared a difficult decision because I was rocking a fake bass until ridiculously late at night and by the time I arose in the morning, the Schiano Era was over.

The moral of the story: coaching searches are crazy. And, like Bill Martin, I acted a n00b for good sections. The first and clearest error on both our parts: Kirk Ferentz. From there things were uneven, but Martin gets to point to Rich Rodriguez and all I get to point to is a post that says "no Rich Rodriguez!"

So... yeah. The internet's did about as well during all this as we thought Michigan was doing. Our (er... my) only consolation is that ESPN did about as well as we did. Oh, and that we hired Rich Freakin' Rodriguez.

As a commenter said in the aftermath "now I can stop reading this goddamn blog." Amen: now I can stop writing it. It's been sort of fun, but I welcome the opportunity to never do this again. Back to the tables and charts. But first, a recap of the madness. (Warning: occasional F-bomb.)

Wither Martin? In the aftermath of the Sailboat Disaster, I wrote:

Michigan's chances at landing Miles are now much weaker than they were a week ago, and it's because Martin blew the most important decision in Michigan athletics since 1969. Because he was on a damn boat too busy to return a phone call.

He has a chance to make good with an excellent hire; anything short of that and he should be run out of town on a rail.

Mission accomplished, and the "how" of it doesn't matter. Even if your faith in his ability to conduct a coaching search is shaken, Martin's old and isn't going to be around for another in either revenue (read: madness-inducing) sport. His record since the Amaker hire is impressive: getting the program on sound financial footing in the aftermath of the disastrous Goss era, retaining Maloney in the face of actual SEC offers, embarking on a radical and needed stadium makeover, and raiding West Virginia for everything that's not nailed down.

Now, do I think that this was headed in a very bad direction before Mary Sue Coleman got heavily involved? Yes. Was Martin caught flat-footed and unprepared? Yes. Did he luck out by stumbling across what appears to be a poisoned relationship and an athletic director who allowed personal feelings to interfere with having a kick-ass football team? Yes.

Given all the crazy stuff that went down over the past month, would I put much behind these opinions? Not really. MGoBlog remains a results-based charting service. Bill Martin: I'm sorry.

A completely speculative and unconfirmed timeline of events.

This is just what I think happened based on everything that's been sent to me and appeared in the press and would logically lead to the things we have had confirmed in the MSM.

1. Carr pushes Ferentz. This was probably happening during the season to some extent, though Carr was busy coaching the team. Given the way the season played out it had to be immediately apparent that someone on the current staff was a no-go. Carr surveys the available coaches and concludes Ferentz is his guy and pushes Martin to pursue things. With Miles facing down a potential national title game, he's off the table.

Is there an offer at this point? Obviously, this depends on who you listen to. I get the feeling many of these conversations go "we could hypothetically offer you $2 million and a hypothetical pony"; "I would hypothetically need a salary that matches my current salary, plus the pony." So plausible deniability is maintained. The Schiano stuff provides an exemplar:

Schiano called the team to the Hale Center at 7 a.m. and told them he "still had work to do" at Rutgers. Schiano looked physically exhausted and said "this was a hard decision," according to a member of the football staff who was in the meeting.

The member of the football staff requested anonymity because of the private nature of the team meeting, but said Schiano looked "tired, beaten up and physically exhausted." He said the Michigan job was Schiano's if he wanted it, but the job was never officially offered.

No offer from Michigan == "tired, beaten up and physically exhausted"? Equals a team meeting to dismiss said rumors? No, probably not.

I think Michigan offered Ferentz the job but the terms were such that he was very unlikely to accept, or they had talks that implied to Ferentz that the job was his if he wanted it, much like Schiano did. I know people close to the Iowa staff thought Ferentz had an offer on the table, and through channels are really unlikely to be an agent's ploy.

Ferentz turns it down, whatever it is, or Michigan can't meet his demands or something. In any case, talks break down.

2. Les Miles is a done deal. It's a done deal, baby! With Ferentz out and LSU suddenly out of the national championship, speculation turns to Miles. Michigan gets permission to contact. Done deal! LSU says "okay, coach the bowl"! Done deal! Four different guys say the LSU players have been told! Done deal! Some people say it's not a done deal, but MORE people say it is! Done deal! Herbstreit reports Miles and Tenuta to Michigan! DONE DEAL!!! Miles has press conference! DONE--

FUCK.

3. Les Miles is still on the table! Hey, his presser was kind of weird and left room for semantic wiggling. Maybe he's just putting it off until after the --

"I will be LSU's head coach next year. Absolutely."

FUCK!

4. Brady Hoke... well, that's cute. Hoke interviews. Nobody thinks this is anything but a courtesy.

5. Come Sail Away. In the aftermath, we try to figure out what happened with Miles. First theory: Carr put the kibosh on it. Completely impossible to believe counter-theory: Bill Martin was on a boat and couldn't be reached as LSU put on its power play. Ha-ha-ha, crazy internet with the crazy thing--

Miles had no idea if Michigan really wanted him.

So Bass [Miles' agent] decided to ask.

He said he called Martin's cell phone on Friday and left a message. He just wanted to know where Miles stood.

Then, when he didn't hear back, the agent said he called Martin again.

"The (LSU) deal was so good that we couldn't just wait," Bass said via phone Tuesday. "I didn't know if we were one of the candidates in the pool at that time. There was just no communication."

Where was Martin? One source places him in Florida, at the Ocean Reef Club in Key Largo.

Wherever he was, he didn't call back.

FUUUUUUUUUCK.

An attempt at self-defense was not appreciated, and then it was hammered like whoah.

6. He's back! He's not. Ferentz briefly re-emerges, then fades.

7. Ha, ha, Brady Hoke. Dienhart claims Hoke is the frontrunner. He is laughed upon.

8. Schia-no. We're now about a week past the Miles kerfuffle, a week full of recriminations as the warring pro- and anti-Miles camps take their spat into the local papers. I've obviously lost my mind and would chew off Bill Martin or Lloyd Carr's face if I thought it would bring Miles to Michigan. Big donors are reportedly very pissed off. And the only persons even mentioned over the past week are Hoke and Ferentz, neither of whom seems plausible.

It's at this point I think Coleman steps in and Michigan's search starts making sense, two weeks after Carr steps down. Michigan offers Schiano the job, reportedly for the same amount Miami offered the year before, right after a fortuitously timed Profile In Heroism and gets turned down. More recriminations.

9. Sean Payton? No.

10. Miles is an option again. NFW. W. Various reports have a real offer out to Miles, apparently for the first time in the process. The media picks it up.

11. Seriously, Brady Hoke? Along with the Miles news comes buzz that Hoke is actually getting pushed by anti-Miles forces. A Profile In Cronyism is deployed to display just how bad an idea this is. Morale is low.

12. Miles is out again. A terse statement from Miles kills things again. MGoBlog picks up an exclusive transcript of Michigan's conversation with Miles. It's sailboaty. Morale lowers further.

13. GROBE! The next day sees Jim Grobe pick up internet momentum, and though by this point internet momentum is worth about as much as the Great White Fail's schematic advantage Grobe is still the perfect platform to launch yet another broadside at this apparently botched search. At this point face-consumption possibilities have expanded to friends, my brother, and most players not named "Mike Hart".

14. Radio silence. Things go dark and there are no plausible candidates about. Fan hopes seem to focus on non-BCS head coaches and NFL coordinators. Two completely implausible names come forward: Lane Kiffin and KC Keeler.

15. Rodriguez. TSN breaks that Michigan is meeting with Rich Rodriguez in Toledo. ("Why Toledo," you ask? Easy: closest Chick-Fil-A to Ann Arbor.) Everyone immediately dismisses this as ludicrously implausible, but all of a sudden the thing has legs. I start stalking the posts of WVU insiders who were right on during the Beilein search. It could happen! It could happen!

FUCK!

Wha... wha... ? No. Really?

They Are Dying On The Walls By The Hundreds, Or They Aren't

The internet responds! Much of it is stupid.

I love the internet, especially in times of trouble for opponents. And this, my friends, is a time of trouble for Michigan opponents. Ask anyone who isn't facing down the spectre regular six-touchdown buttwhippings*, like Florida fans or Bruce Feldman...

If I'm a Michigan fan, I'm ecstatic knowing the Wolverines have just landed Rich Rodriguez. I'd rather have him over any of the guys who had been linked to UM job.

...or Dan Shanoff...

Coach Rod represents the absolute best-case scenario for Michigan fans -- the absolute best coach available.

...or the cavalcade of swoon linked the past few days. They will all tell you the obvious thing: hiring a guy who's gone to BCS games two of the last three years, won his conference four of the last five years, and has gone 32-6 the past three years is a pretty good idea.

...but various Ministers of Information say NSFMF!

Michigan State's RCMB has a poll up: "Is Rodriguez a good hire?" 30% of respondents say no. An explanation for a no vote, such as it is:

HORRIBLE hire for Michigan, HORRIBLE hire for WV... Absolute GREAT hire for the rest of the big 10. UM should start wearing purple and black. They will be the new Northwestern. One great year followed by a ton of sub 500 years. This is a GREAT day to hate Michigan

A fellow Spartan plays Reasonable Cop, disagreeing like so:

I don't think RR will bring glory back to UM, but I'm not drunk enough on kool-aide to think he'll take them any further down than 4th place in the conference

Indeed.

Black Shoe Diaries is moderately negative...

As far as Michigan goes, I think they will regret this decision in a few years. He has a history of being an opportunist. While at West Virginia he strung along secret negotiations with Alabama and was even rumored to have an agreement in principle. But he decided to stay in West Virginia anyway, but his wandering eye turned off a lot of the West Virginia faithful. Now it's reasonable to assume that Rodriguez won't be looking at other college head coaching jobs. He's at Michigan now. There aren't many other more attractive jobs out there that would warrant another move. But what if he has some success and the NFL comes calling? Is he committed to Michigan for life? Or is he going to be persuaded to listen to every offer that comes along? ...
What happens if Rodriguez starts ignoring cherished time-honored traditions? What happens if he fails speak of Bo Schembechler and Fielding Yost as if they were saints? What happens when he loses to Ohio State and says "Win some. Lose some" in his post game press conference?

While the first paragraph may be something of a concern -- he's certainly more likely to bolt than Les Miles would be -- Michigan is a terminal job in college football and NFL teams are unlikely to leap at an opportunity to hire a guy who relies so heavily on running quarterbacks unless Michigan just owns the opposition, and... uh... okay. I'm willing to take that change. As for the rest of it: what happens if Rodriguez slaps himself in a press conference after losing to Illinois? I agree that if it turns out Michigan has hired a lunatic, it will be bad for the program. It's not something to fret about until we hear he's slapped Tyrelle Pryor.

But it's the BSD commenters who crack me up:

RichRod had a good thing going at WVU, and now he's leaving that behind for the Michigan microscope? Sounds like a bad idea to me. Didn't WVU bend over backwards for him too with facilities upgrades to keep him there last offseason? Had RichRod already emotionally taken the scUM job when his 'Neers lost to Pitt? Interesting indeed.

Leaving a good thing for the big-time too early, sound familiar Chucky Weis?

Indeed, a Michigan program that hasn't fired a coach for on-field performance matters in 40 years is truly a roiling pressure-cooker of a situation. And truly, seven years as a head coach at a top 25 program is not enough of an apprenticeship period. And a proven college head coach is the exact equivalent of hiring a morbidly obese sociopath who's never so much as picked up a whistle as a head coach.

Ohio State fans are generally dismissive (Eleven Warriors does call it a "good hire"), but there were, by my count, exactly two coaches Michigan could hire that would create even the slightest blip on OSU's radar: Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel. Neither was thought to be available.

The Nation seems split between knocking down Rodriguez' accomplishments and playing up the "Mallett has no legs" issue...

Ferentz would have been a much better choice. Why Michigan chose a coach that specializes in a scheme thats completely incompatible with their current personnel is beyond me.

Horrible hire

... and saying "crap":

Michigan has outdone all ND coach searches (basketball and football) since November 1986.

It's not all batty out there, kids. Boiled Sports:

I don't know if Michigan will be great next season...but they will soon. That dude can coach. ...

I even bought a WVU hat because of my like for Rodriguez; and I've never disliked UM...so I'm happy that the Wolverines got a good guy. I'm sad that he'll be kicking Purdue's ass regularly, but it's a good hire none-the-less.

Lake The Posts:

Rich Rodriguez is a much better hire than Les Miles would've been. The Michigan fans can continue to bitch all season long about the sailing loving Bill Martin, but there is no one else out there better for the Maize 'n Blue than this hire. Ann Arbor is going to be intimidating once again.

Black Heart, Gold Pants:

He pwn3d the Big East, winning 4 of the last 5 titles and 3 coach of the year awards. His teams run the spread option better than just about anyone. In other words, this ain't your father's Michigan offense anymore, and Florida (and, increasingly, Illinois) has taught us all the basic math of Wacko Ninja Offense + Top-Notch Talent = Carnage.

*(Ohio State fans excepted, of course, as they are not actually staring said prospect down.)