mgoblog: May 2005

Tuesday, May 31, 2005

I generally like Stewart Mandel. But his latest mailbag is lazy, lazy, lazy. His piercing analysis of the Texas-OSU matchup is this:

"But I don't care who you are -- you don't go into the Horseshoe and win when Ohio State is good, especially not at night. Texas could conceivably turn around and win all the rest of its games -- yes, including Oklahoma -- but it's not going to beat the Buckeyes under the lights in Columbus, and neither would any other team."

Uh, unless you're Wisconsin last year. Were the Buckeyes "good" then? They finished 8-4, seems good. Come on, Stewart. That's the kind of sentiment you'd find a toothless 14-year-old pounding out in ALL CAPS on a message board where they think "scUM" is clever.

And then there's this analysis of the Michigan passing game:

"Now, had Gradkowski gone to Michigan or Ohio State (and assuming he even got off one of their benches), he'd be asked to run a conservative offense where he hands the ball off 35 times a game and, when he does throw, rarely gets the chance to go downfield (and if he does, he's probably throwing to some sick athlete like Braylon Edwards, who can turn poorly thrown floaters into completions)."

Oy. Welcome to 1990. How many guys like Howard, Toomer, Alexander, Terrell, Walker, and Edwards does Michigan have to showcase before it sheds its image as a run at all costs offense? Michigan's true freshman quarterback just threw for 2700 yards and 25 touchdowns. I could understand if this was Beano Cook talking, but Mandel seems like a guy who's actually watched football sometime after 1979.

The super weird thing is that paragraph came in the midst of a discussion about the MAC and how its lightly-recruited quarterbacks seem to outperform the Big Ten's. Mandel specifically calls out Navarre as an example of a guy who was "lapped" by the superior development of MAC coaching staffs, which is exactly opposite reality as I perceive it. Navarre's other D-I offer at quarterback was Northwestern and the man was a disaster as a sophomore. The fact that he evolved into an All Big Ten quarterback and an NFL draft pick (okay, by the Cardinals, so it hardly counts) was a tribute to Loeffler and Malone's coaching ability.

Michigan's offense is no longer old-school. I'd kill to see some old-school Michigan defense, though.

[+/-]

Football: Recruiting board updated

[+/-]

2006 Recruiting Board

**Quarterbacks**
Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
David Cone	GA	***	Michigan	mgoblog on Cone here, team won GA state championship

**Prospects**
Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
Carlos Brown	GA	****	Michigan	Duuude, shocker. MGoBlog on Brown; Rivals #32
Brandon Minor	VA	****	Michigan	people like want him and stuff; MGoBlog on Minor.

**Wide Receivers**
Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
Greg Mathews	FL	****	Michigan	Rivals100 (#91); camped all week; Orlando Sentinel article; verbal now soft as he has visted OSU and will visit FSU but seems likely to stick.

**Offensive Linemen**
Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
Justin Boren (G/C)	OH	****.5	Michigan	Rivals 100(#39), Scout 100(#28), mgoblog on Boren here; brief Scout interview.
Perry Dorrestein(T)	IL	***	Michigan	Scout article.
Steve Schilling	WA	*****	Michigan	high school nickname: "Wolverines." Helmet: Winged, Rivals 100(#25), Scout 100 (#4), Seattle Times article; Seattle PI article; News Tribune article; decides Friday, has dropped USC; Rivals "Breakdown" segment.

**Defensive Tackles**
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
Adam Patterson	SC	****	Michigan	Rivals 100(#91); Times-Democrat article; The State.com article.
Jason Kates	PA	***.5	Michigan	PSU offer; Lemming says he will commit to M.

**Defensive End**
Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
Adam Patterson	SC	****	Michigan	Rivals 100(#91); Times-Democrat article; The State.com article.
John Ferrara	NY	***	Michigan	mgoblog on Ferrara; NY Daily News article.
Greg Banks	CO	***	Michigan	Scout article; January enrollee.
Quintin Woods	MI	***	Michigan	Did not play football until senior year, but made quite an impression when he did. Scout article; Free Press article.

**Linebackers**
Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
Brandon Graham	MI	*****	Michigan	Rivals 100(#19), Scout 100(#12), #1 player in Michigan; DetNews article; Rivals "Breakdown."
Cobrani Mixon	OH	****	Michigan	Scout 100(#84), Cinci Colerain(Mister Simpson, Connor Smith). mgoblog on Mixon here.
Quintin Patilla	MI	***	Michigan
Obi Ezeh	MI	***	Michigan	ATH FB, commitment article.
Prospects
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes

**Cornerbacks**
Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes

**Linebackers**
Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
Steve Brown	IN	****	Michigan	Rivals 100(#65), Scout 100(#92), ATH CB, Scout article, Scout commit article, first HS game.
Jonas Mouton	CA	****.5	Michigan	Rivals 100(#45), Scout 100(#42), has scheduled official, M in top 3; Scout article; Rivals' Greg Biggins says he's comin'.

Commitments
Name	State	Stars	Schools	Notes
Bryan Wright (K)	OH	**	Michigan	Full scholarship offer; mgoblog on Wright; article.

[+/-]

Basketball: Non Rock 'n' Jock rule suggestions

I promised I would put up my basketball rules changes for skewering, and here they are. I've only got six of them, but if you'd like to you can mentally add filler like sexing Mutombo, etc.

Here goes...

1. Drastically slash the number of timeouts each team is allotted.
I hate basketball timeouts, largely because each team is allotted approximately a mole of them. Coaches can use them willy-nilly and still end up at the end of the game with enough of them to forcibly beat my interest in the game out of me. The end of a close basketball game is a series that goes like so: possession, timeout, possession, timeout, timeout, possession, timeout... timeout, possession, timeout, shotgun blast annihilates television.

Wouldn't it be nice if a team that had just been scored upon and now faces a tied game or a one point deficit with ten seconds on the clock just had to play, and couldn't run back to coachy for a lolly and and an intricately detailed out-of-bounds play? Yes, goddammit. Yes.

Teams should be given a small number of timeouts that should last them the entire game. Three sounds right. Three timeouts per game gives a coach a mindbending decision over whether to try to halt an opponent's run with a timeout or to hoard it like it's platinum crack for the end of the game.

or
2. Only allow them in dead-ball situations.
If you're not going to do the nuclear thing, then at least stop allowing them when they want me want to stab stuff. Currently anyone in trouble with the ball, whether they're trapped on the sideline or airborne and heading into the second row, just calls a timeout to save the possession. Nobody likes it when there's about to be a big mess of bodies on the ground and the very real possibility of a decapitating elbow being thrown and the officials rob us of our bloodsport by indicating timeout. Teams should be rewarded for putting the ballhandler in a tenuous position, not sent to the bench for orange quarters and advertisements for TNT's latest miniseries.

3. Remove the incentive to foul at the end of a game!!!!!!!!(!)
The end of a six point basketball game is a shameful thing. The trailing team intentionally hacks the team that leads and sends them to the line hoping that they brick a free-throw or two and so they can rush down court and jack up a three. This process is repeated until your eyeballs melt like the Ark of the Covenant was just opened in front of you. The last two minutes take fifteen for no purpose at all.

Teams should never be rewarded for breaking the rules. This isn't the same as saying that no one should ever intentionally break the rules. It's unavoidable that sometimes that'll be preferable to the alternative--like a breakaway in hockey or a defensive end killing your quarterback in football. But at least in that situation the team committing the foul is still being penalized. A team trailing by four with twenty seconds left is actually benefiting from fouling, as they are allowed to cling to some faint hope of victory.

mgoblog's proposed solution is that when a non-shooting foul in the last two minutes would result in free throws, that team has the option of taking the ball out of bounds with a fresh shot clock and a five second time runoff. Problem solved, remainder of game completely unaffected.

4. Explore the possibilities of electronic officiating aids.
One of the things that drives me nuts about basketball is the refereeing. It's inconsistent, to put it kindly. When I'm watching a game it's a $&!%#@ing crime. Basketball officiating bothers me more than the officiating in any other sport because it seems orders of magnitude more incompetent. As hard as it is to believe, it probably isn't. The nature of basketball forces the referees into a more prominent position than other sports because they're asked to make extremely close decisions several times a minute.

Relieving the burden on the referees to make decisions in more cut-and-dried areas will hopefully improve the rest of the game as well. A couple of chips in a basketball and a system that can determine its position and trajectory could entirely remove referee's responsibility for out-of-bounds plays and goaltending calls, leaving them unfettered, able to really focus on ignoring Chauncey Billups getting the prison treatment from five different Heat players.

5. Call flops as blocking fouls.
mgoblog despises diving in all its forms unless TJ Hensick's doing it, in which case it is beautiful gamesmanship. And though Reggie Miller's retirement lessens the need for a change significantly, the diving that remains in the NBA should be penalized when it occurs, not merely ignored.

6. Adopt college rules about technicals.
A technical foul has very little bite in the NBA. One foul shot. Whoop-dee-freakin-doo. That's a major reason that NBA players and coaches spend the entire game mouthing off to officials. (Other major reason: they deserve it.) Making the technical count as a personal and giving two foul shots would at least make people like Rasheed Wallace think twice before going volcano-style--though in Wallace's case it probably wouldn't make much of an impact.

That's six changes that I think would vastly improve basketball. None of them are reminiscent of Rock 'n' Jock in the slightest. One deserves every excessive exclamation point I saw fit to bestow upon it. Fire away in the comments section if you like, you may get me to change my mind... but there's no way any more than two or three of those exclamation points are going anywhere. Word to the wise.

Monday, May 30, 2005

[+/-]

Minnesota Preview 2005: Take The Over

The Story
Over Glen Mason's nine years in Minneapolis he has lifted the Gophers from laughingstock to respectability, but hasn't managed to get Minnesota over the hump and seriously threaten for the Big Ten title.

Many will tell you this is due to some sort of Spartanesque post-Michigan collapse. After all, over the past three years Minnesota is 18-2 before playing the Wolverines and 7-7 after. Unfortunately for lazy broadcasters, this disparity is the frontrunner for phoniest stat of the 2005 season. Most of those 18 victories have come against Minnesota's perennial slate of nonconference loozer schools. Minnesota's Big Ten wins over that timespan came over Northwestern (three times), Penn State (twice), and Illinois (once). Any slightly-above-average team would have had the same record before and after Michigan, because the teams that came before Michigan were bad and the teams that came after were not.

The truth is that Minnesota's failures have nothing whatsoever to do with some sort of mental malaise that sets in after yet another heartbreaking loss to the perpetual Brown Jug holders and everything to do with the fact that Mason has only put together half a team. Minnesota's offense has been a running juggernaut the envy of every old-school six-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust Big Ten traditionalist but their defense has been horrible, terrible, unwatchable, repulsive... pick up a thesaurus, start at "sucktastic," and point. You'll find something that's probably a little too nice.

This does not look to change this year. Other than a couple of solid players at defensive tackle the defense has almost nothing in the way of proven talent. It's possible that they could turn into a respectable unit, but it's possible in the same sense that Barry Sanders will suit up for the Lions again. The good news is if the Gophers' run game can adjust to not having a back with a roman numeral after his name, it will be lights out again. Laurence Maroney is a legitimate Heisman candidate and the fierce, experienced, and mobile line in front of him--led by Rimington favorite Greg Eslinger--should pave the way for a monster year.

So, more of the same? Perhaps. Minnesota has an X-factor this year in the form of 6'5" wide receiver Ernest Wheelwright, who has all the physical tools you could possibly imagine and a nasty habit of dropping extremely important catches. If he can morph from a deep threat into an everywhere threat and catch what he gets his hands on, Minnesota's offense could overcome their defense.

Unit by Unit
Quarterback
Rating: 3. Brian Cupito's role in his first year as a starter was mostly to hand it off to Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney. Occasionally he would be called upon to toss a bomb downfield or hit tight end Matt Spaeth on play action, which he did well enough despite statistical appearances to the contrary--a 47% completion percentage. That's an ugly number, but it isn't nearly as bad as it looks, since he led the Big Ten in yards per attempt with 8.0. He demolished the competition by averaging 17.1 yards per completion. He did this with a receiving corps that dropped a large number of catchable balls, too (more on that later). Cupito's first year as a starter was actually a rather good one.

Cupito has yet to show that he can be an accurate passer on the outs, digs, and slants that most teams use as the basis of their passing game, but that isn't his fault. He hasn't been given much of an opportunity to do so. Mason deliberately kept him away from danger to prevent interceptions. The caution worked, as Cupito threw 14 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions. The cost, though, was more predictability than a truly great offense can afford to have. Mason will open up the playbook a little more this year. Cupito will have to show that he's capable of handling it.

Running Back
Rating: 5. Minnesota lost half of its two-headed monster at running back when Marion Barber III declared for the NFL draft but the Gophers return the better half of the duo in the explosive Laurence Maroney. If Maroney, finally the clear-cut starter, maintains his spectacular 6.2 yards-per-carry average and leads Minnesota into a race for the Big Ten title he will be a legitimate Heisman candidate. He will certainly have the horses in front of him to do so. mgoblog predicts Maroney cracks 2,000 yards this year and gets to New York.

Backups Gary Russell and Amir Pinnix both showed well in the spring game and will get their share of time spelling Maroney. The Gophers are excited about both young backs' potential and given the line they'll have in front of them, an injury to Maroney would be harmful but not devastating.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Rating: 4.Though Minnesota returns senior Jared Ellerson, its leading receiver from last year, this position is the Ernest Wheelwright show. Wheelwright is a 6'5" monster with deep speed and the ever-coveted big play capability. He burst on to the scene as a freshman, averaging 21.8 yards a catch and making several spectacular downfield plays. It wasn't all strawberries and cream, however, as Wheelwright dropped a number of catchable balls over the course of the year, including one that would have put Michigan away for good.

Ellerson's good, but Wheelwright has the potential to make defenses choose between leaving Maroney up against a seven-man front or chancing Wheelwright loping downfield, diminutive cornerback in tow. Neither of those is appealing in the slightest--if Wheelwright makes the Sports-Guy-Approved "Leap."

Tight end Matt Spaeth is 6'6", 270 and plays like an offensive lineman with soft hands. He's excellent blocking for Maroney and when he finds himself open will come down with the ball but isn't overly athletic for a tight end and sometimes has trouble getting open. Another good year and he will start getting All Big Ten consideration.

Offensive Line
Rating: 5. The Gopher line has been paving the way for Maroney and company for a few years now. Center Greg Eslinger has been an All-American almost from the moment he set foot on the not-so-hallowed turf of the Hubert H. Humphery Metrodome. Left guard Mark Setterstrom and left tackle Joe Ainsile aren't far behind.

The right side of the line is less proven. Mike Nicholson, the projected starter at right guard, is a senior with eight starts over the past two years. The right tackle is sophomore Tony Brinkhaus, who is entering his first season seeing serious playing time.

Ultimately, though, the performance of the right side of the line will determine whether Minnesota has a great offensive line or merely a very, very good one. No team in the league can match the 1-2-3 combo of Eslinger, Setterstrom, and Ainsile, and Brinkhaus seems ready to fill in capably at the RT position. There's a reason Minnesota's been rolling backs off the assembly line like the Denver Broncos over the past few years, and it rests entirely on these players.

Defensive Line
Rating: 2. DT Anthony Montgomery is a legitimate anchor in the middle and Mark Losli is a decent running mate for him. The Gophers were okay against the run last year despite having a weak set of linebackers largely because of the two defensive tackles holding their ground so well. I say "okay" instead of "good" because even though Minnesota finished 36th in the country in terms of raw yardage, that ranking was inflated by Minnesota's non-conference schedule and awful pass defense. When Big Ten teams tried to rush against Minnesota, they averaged 3.8 yards a carry--that placed Minnesota 7th in the conference. Montgomery and Losli are solid, but they aren't the kind of guys who are going to blow up many plays by themselves (13.5 tackles for loss between them last year). If the run defense is going to improve, it'll be more on the shoulders of the linebackers than the defensive tackles.

The defensive ends will be a major problem area. Last year 230 pound linebacker Mario Reese drew six starts opposite Darrell Reid, the line's only consistent pass rusher (7.5 sacks). Reid has graduated; redshirt junior Eric Clark--the man splitting starts with Reese last year--is slated to step into Reid's shoes, but how productive can he be? Clark's two sacks last year came against Illinois and Illinois State. Against good opponents he did very little. The other starting end will probably be fifth-year senior Keith Lipka, who has been so anonymous thus far in his collegiate career that Minnesota's 2005 season prospectus doesn't even mention him.

Linebackers
Rating: 2. This position group is a mess of moved players, inexperience, and questionable athleticism. The only returning starter, Kyle McKenzie, has been shifted from middle linebacker to the outside. The new man in the middle is walk-on Mike Sherels, who has very little experience. The same can be said for strongside linebacker John Shevlin. Minnesota fans will be relying on addition by subtraction here, hoping that the shuffling (new strong safety Brandon Owens, a linebacker last year, is a part of it) is a sign of the defensive coaches finding the correct places for these players instead of the alternative, blind panic.

Perhaps one of the three will emerge as a steady contributor who can occasionally make a big play, but asking it of all three is a significant stretch. Minnesota's going to be going into the season hoping to answer a lot of questions here, but it's doubtful this unit will be anything special.

Defensive Backs
Rating: 1. Minnesota's pass-yardage defense was one of the worst in the country, giving up 266 yards a game enroute to finishing 109th in Division I-A. On the surface the pass efficiency numbers aren't quite as grim--Minnesota ended up 67th--but a deeper look shows that Minnesota's opponents included some of the most aerially inept teams to be found: Wisconsin(99th in passing efficiency), Northwestern(95th), Penn State(110th), Illinois(82nd), and Illinois State(85th... in I-AA!). Gopher fans should take little solace in the passing efficiency numbers.

One of these years Minnesota will put together a decent secondary, but this one doesn't look like it, especially given that the line is devoid of pass rushers. Redshirt junior Trumaine Banks has started the past two years and steps into the departed Ukee Dozier's shoes at Minnesota's closest thing to a #1 corner. Banks was targeted early and often by opposing quarterbacks last year and made a fair share of plays (9 PBUs and two interceptions) but more often than not was beaten for completions. Sophomore Jamal Harris appears to be the leading candidate to start at the other cornerback spot.

John Pawielski returns at free safety while Brandon Owens returns to strong safety after playing linebacker a year ago. Pawielski is limited athletically and it remains to be seen whether Owens has the range to be a safety. They'll both rack up a lot of tackles but unfortunately for Minnesota, they'll usually be eight to ten yards downfield.

Return Game
Rating: 2.Maroney split time at KR with Barber last year and Mason has shown that he's willing to risk his best players on returns if he believes them to be the best available. That may change now that the Gophers are relying heavily on Maroney as the number one running back, but frankly it doesn't appear to matter much. Despite deploying Barber and Maroney last year, Minnesota finished 89th in punt returns and 91st in kick returns.

Either it's problems with the blocking schemes or Barber just wasn't much of a returner (he returned all but one punt and more kicks than anyone else), but Minnesota didn't get any big plays out of the return game all year.

Kickers
Rating: N/A. The departed Rhys Lloyd handled both the kicking and punting duties last year, and several redshirt freshmen are battling for one spot or the other. It's mgoblog policy not to wildly speculate on kickers, who you just don't know about until they step on the field.

Schedule
Minnesota starts off with a couple of cupcakes in Tulsa (though that game, bizarrely, is at Tulsa) and Florida Atlantic but sandwiched between them is a Colorado State team that is usually half decent. Minnesota handled the Rams last year and will probably do so again this year but there's at least a chance that one will be competitive.

Minnesota got the short end of the stick this year in the Big Ten , missing Northwestern and Illinois. While the Boilermakers are laughing and preparing their New Year's Day bowl plans, Minnesota faces a Bataan deathmarch of a Big Ten Schedule with only Indiana and possibly Wisconsin looking like breathers, and Minnesota lost to both of those teams last year. The Gophers must travel to Michigan and Iowa, though they do get Ohio State at home.

Keys to the Season
Find a pass rush. It doesn't matter if it comes from blitzing three guys every play. As noted, Minnesota's defense will probably be very bad, and the best way for a bad defense to get off the field is by making a big play and forcing the opponent into a situation where he only has one option. A highly aggressive Minnesota defense might give up some big plays, but if they lay back there's a good chance the opponent will march down the field anyway. Minnesota should rely on the offense to cover up mistakes and pin those cute Gopher ears back.

Diversify the passing game. Minnesota's offense is going to be good, but if the Gophers find themselves in a game where Maroney is getting stuffed, they won't be able to sustain drives by tossing it 30 yards downfield. Cupito needs to read coverages and make throws ten or fifteen yards downfield to make the Gopher offense capable of putting up points against great defenses.

Find some kickers. Minnesota is going to need all the points they can get this year and at least one game will hinge on the leg an as-yet-undetermined redshirt freshman. It would be good if he was, uh, good.

Expectations
Worst Case: Cupito doesn't improve much. Neither does the defense. Minnesota still detonates against teams with flimsy defenses but can't hang with teams that feature one good unit and one decent one and ends up going 3-5 in the Big Ten to finish 6-5.

Best Case: Cupito's second year as a starter is marked by increased consistency and Mason lets him throw over the middle more, which he is surprisingly effective at. Wheelwright sheds his case of the dropsies and becomes a combination of Mike Williams and Braylon Edwards. The Gopher offense goes nuclear, but the defense still manages to blow a couple games. Minnesota finally beats Michigan and rides into the Citrus Bowl, praying that Maroney returns for a senior year and a Rose Bowl run.

mgoblog says... Swap Minnesota's and Purdue's schedules and I'd be slotting the Gophers in a BCS bowl, but both Michigan and Ohio State look capable of throttling the Gopher run game and scoring enough points on the other side of the ball to beat them. Against Michigan the Gophers had one 80 yard touchdown run by Maroney--and 109 yards the other 38 times they tried to run. That was largely because of Gabe Watson and Lamar Woodley, both of whom return for Michigan. Minnesota didn't play Ohio State last year but the card says that anyone attempting to run against the Buckeyes this year will be going uphill.

The Iowa, Michigan State, and Purdue games will be dogfights. Their outcomes will depend largely on the effectiveness of the Cupito-Wheelwright connection and how much the defense improves, if at all. I think Cupito and Wheelwright will both take big leaps forward this year but the defense will not. That should still be enough to make it to 5-3 in the Big Ten. mgoblog predicts that Minnesota beats MSU and one of Iowa, Purdue, or Ohio State but loses to Michigan and the other two BCS threats. 8-3(5-3), 4th Big Ten.

[+/-]

BlogPoll Central

Sunday, May 29, 2005

[+/-]

Football: Germany precedent

Saturday, May 28, 2005

[+/-]

More softball, Marlin sued, etc.

Friday, May 27, 2005

[+/-]

Basketball: New assistant hired

[+/-]

Football: Recruiting board updated

Thursday, May 26, 2005

[+/-]

mgoblog's shameless bid for attention

[+/-]

mgoblog's recruiting philosophy

My name is Brian, and I follow recruiting. I realize that this is on some level a disease. I am at the beck and call of athletic 17-year-olds who may or may not choose to attend the same school I did in the rapidly receding past and play a fundamentally meaningless game. I do this because it is just that important to me that Ohio State is defeated and slinks back to their system of prehistoric ape-caves they dare to call a "state" with its collective tail between its collective legs.

You're either with me on that point or not. If you aren't, I commend you on your sense of perspective and lack of obsessive, addictive tendencies. You are probably bad in bed. You lack passion for everything except a well-peeled carrot. You are free to go.

But if you're like me--the kind of person who would seriously consider offering your first-born child to a mysterious hobgoblin in exchange for twenty straight victories over the Buckeyes and wouldn't think twice if it was fifty--this kind of stuff does matter. Why? Well, it's something to do. Life is basically a series of things to do of varying desirability and far be it from me to judge your decision to watch reality TV compulsively, so don't get all huffy about my attention to the minute details of the activities of young sweaty muscular men. NTTAWWT. I'm the kind of person who reads mock drafts with interest and likes playing pretend GM in fantasy leagues and simulation games. There was little chance I could avoid this fate.

I do acknowledge that the recruiting thing is sort of a character flaw. I have many character flaws, though, and this one is much less critical than "hates most things" and "sees children as bargaining chips for deals with paranormal creatures that do not, in fact, exist." That said, I believe there is a right way to pursue this slightly shady activity and a wrong way. And because I am in need of words to put on the Interweb, I share these things:

Etiquette

1. DON'T PANIC
Always a good one, and it goes triple for recruiting. There is a significant difference between a player like five-star Justin King and three-star Johnny Sears, but it is not so drastic that failing to acquire King should be a cause for anything more than a shrug and a "that's rather unfortunate." PANIC is the root cause of many of the immature, stupid things people post on message boards across the internet.

2. Do not disparage recruits except in extraordinary circumstances.
This goes quadruple for uncommitted recruits--a recent flagrant example on Rivals occurred when someone posted some idiocy about how he doubted Justin Boren's "love for Michigan" because he hadn't committed yet. Boren committed soon after and then expressed his love for Michigan. How do you feel now, anonymous internet moron?

The primary reason not to disparage a recruit is the fact that if you do so, you are a douchebag. You are running down a person you have never met because he is not going to your school or is unlikely to do so. This is a sign of mental illness or extreme immaturity. These players are choosing the direction their life will go in, narrowing down their choices from a bewildering array of schools all rolling out the red carpet and promising a moon or two.

The secondary reason not to disparage a recruit is there's a damn good chance they'll read it. Lord knows I obsessively hunt down references to this blog when they appear on the internet (far, far too infrequently). Any teenager on the planet is going to want to know what people think about him, and if he comes across someone saying something stupid on a message board he's probably going to think less well of that particular school. It won't hurt much--but it won't help.

I said "extraordinary circumstances"... what are extraordinary circumstances? Jerking people around like Jeff Smoker's "University of Michigan... State" announcement, or Marquise Hill directly stating that he was going to LSU all along and was just having some fun with the Michigan coaches. And, of course, anything to do with Willie Williams.

This does not include last minute swerves like Cameron Colvin telling the Michigan coaches he was coming and then committing to Oregon at the last second or Travis Johnson going to bed a Wolverine and waking up a Seminole. There's a reason for the LOI. Going to school is a huge decision and there are going to be some last minute changes of heart. It happens. There must be obviously malicious intent.

Even then, it's best to just let it go. If I was held responsible for all my youthful mistakes my child support payments would be enormous. (Or maybe I just sat in someone's basement playing D&D... you'll never know! Except you probably do. Dammit.)

3. Don't make sweeping generalizations based on one player.
Don't be that guy on the message board saying "recruiting doesn't matter because Kelly Baraka." A sample size of one is not statistically significant. That's akin to saying "you don't want the first pick in the draft because Aundray Bruce sucked." (The reason you don't want the first pick in the draft is because that means your team sucked.) Recruiting rankings are important, and though there are good reasons why they are not all-important, going blah blah blah about how it doesn't matter because of ANECDOTE 1 and ANECDOTE 2 is demonstrably incorrect.

More importantly, it is very annoying.

Filtering information

4. Don't listen to Tom Lemming or Max Emfinger.
Dudes just don't know what's going on and always vastly overrate players in their immediate geographical area (Chicago for Lemming, Louisiana and Texas for Emfinger).

Emfinger hands out ratings extremely early and gives anyone looking like a high-major recruit the full Chad-Ford-on-Darko treatment. Everyone's a phenom if your interest in a "phenom" who's considering your school might slide a couple bucks into Emfinger's hands. Yes, this is true to some extent for everyone involved in the mildly creepy world of recruiting. It's a matter of degree. If Rivals is negligent homicide Emfinger is second degree murder. Rivals articles have their share of rah-rah, but Emfinger radiates the panting sycophancy neatly summed up by the word "stud."

Plus he makes kids wear egomaniacal jerseys that actually say "MAX EMFINGER'S H.S. ALL AMERICANS." And don't get me started on his website, which I suggest you avoid if you are the kind of person who gets seizures from watching the Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers. Emfinger's site will cause you to convulse so violently you'll either die or come out the other side with a bizarre suite of super powers.

Lemming's major sin isn't as severe. His problem is that usually he has no idea what he's talking about. He throws out things that are completely wrong without repercussion. The example that comes most immediately to mind is that last year her claimed that Indiana WR Selwyn Lymon was "leaning to Michigan" when everyone else had him pegged for Purdue. Lymon went... to Purdue. No one ever suggested Michigan was ahead. That wouldn't be bad, except it happens *all the time* with Lemming. Instead of merely saying "I don't know" when he doesn't--which is often--he throws some approximate schools out there that often correlate with how much money he thinks a particular fanbase can throw at him.

He's better than nothing, but if he directly contradicts the conventional wisdom on a recruit, ignore it. He's wrong. Also, he used to deliver mail. He's about as qualified to evaluate high school football talent as I am.

5. Don't regard guru rankings as the be-all and end-all...
The guru ranking process is heavily weighted by the camps a player attends the summer between his junior and senior years. This is understandable, as the gurus have to rank hundreds of kids in a short span of time and don't often get to see top recruits go head-to-head in actual games. It's common for players who either can't afford camps or simply don't want to attend to be neglected by the ranking process. Recruits who commit early are especially likely to have this happen to them, as they aren't likely to go out in an effort to earn more offers and gurus' attention is generally focused on players who have yet to make a decision.

Justin Schifano is an excellent example of this phenomenon. He committed to Michigan at the 38-0 Notre Dame blowout, before he had begun playing his junior year of high school (the commit would become public much later, after the 2004 recruiting class had signed). The other school that was after him heavily at the time was Miami. The gurus ranked him a four star and omitted him from the top 100, even though there couldn't have been more than one or two players at any position that Michigan had offers out for by the time Schifano accepted his. But since he kept a low profile and played a low profile position (guard) he didn't get the hoopla many other recruits did.

I see guru rankings as one of several significant components of the opinion I form about recruits. Other things I look for:

Early offers, especially at positions of relatively little need. If Michigan does not appear to have a tremendous need at a position (for instance, running back or wide receiver this year) and they extend an early offer to a recruit, that's a guy the coaching staff wants badly. That goes double if other major schools are also pursuing heavily.

General visibility of a recruit. Carson Butler sat out his junior year at renaissance after transferring and focused mainly on basketball until his senior year rolled around. He attended no camps and played in the low-profile Public School League in Detroit. He wasn't even rated by Rivals until he committed to Michigan. Butler fits the definition of a sleeper to a tee... the good definition of sleeper. Most people call a low profile recruit their team has acquired a 'sleeper' instead of 'project likely to be sucky' because it's nicer to envision national championships than Motor City Bowls. Butler is a sleeper in the true sense--there was every reason for people to miss the boat on his potential and his upside (-1 point for saying 'upside') is very large. Huge, even. There's more reason to be excited about his potential than that of someone like Rondell Biggs, who didn't labor in anything approaching the obscurity Butler did.

Offer timing. I don't harbor any illusions about offensive lineman Mark Ortmann, who visited, was offered, and committed all in one weekend... immediately after it became clear that Michigan's blue-chip OT targets not named "Zirbel" were all heading to Iowa. Ortmann was a backup plan, and my expectations for him are correspondingly lower than they are for someone like Schifano.

6. ...but don't disregard them entirely, either.
Guru rankings miss players but that does not mean that the ones they rate highly are trash. They aren't a guarantee, but neither are NFL draft picks. Blue-Gray Sky's recent review of 2002's top 50 shows that the gurus are actually pretty good at identifying a select group of players with obvious athletic advantages over the rest. They find it hard to quantify something like Mike Hart's vision, but they're good at picking out the fact that Gabe Watson is able to move around real good for a man of his leviathan proportions.

When comparing guru ratings, I mostly ignore Lemming and Emfinger. Scout and Rivals are where its at because each composite list is the amalgamated opinion of a few dozen sets of eyes, and mgoblog believes in the wisdom of crowds. They're far from perfect but also far from useless. If a player is rated as a five-star, he's significantly more likely to become a useful player than a three star.

7. Be sure to translate recruit speak into normal English.
Recruiting articles contain a large number of quotes from recruits that do not mean what you think they mean. A field guide to the strange sounds that come out of recruits' mouths follows.

"My favorites are Illinois, Northwestern, and Toledo" - I will immediately commit to Michigan or Ohio State if offered.

"The visit was a 10. It was the best visit ever." - The visit occurred and it was either good, bad, or mediocre. I'm not telling.

"I want to play in warm weather." - I will never in a million years forget that sorority at Florida State.

"I'm wide open." - Stop looking me like that, Emfinger.

"I want to play early." - I want to play early.

"Early playing time isn't important to me." - I'm an offensive lineman.

"Academics are extremely important to me" - I don't care about academics in the slightest.

"No, seriously, the academic reputation of a school is critical in my decision making." - My mom is in the room.

"They're talking to me about playing both ways." - Seriously, Emfinger, step off.

Testimonial

Payday Loans

Site Info

Site Search

Site Feed

MGoBricks

Glyphland

MGoBlog has moved. The new site can be found at MGoBlog.com

Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Basketball: I'm 'somebody.'

Football: Bad Stewie

Football: Recruiting board updated

2006 Recruiting Board

Basketball: Non Rock 'n' Jock rule suggestions

Monday, May 30, 2005

Minnesota Preview 2005: Take The Over

BlogPoll Central

Sunday, May 29, 2005

Football: Germany precedent

Saturday, May 28, 2005

More softball, Marlin sued, etc.

Friday, May 27, 2005

Basketball: New assistant hired

Football: Recruiting board updated

Thursday, May 26, 2005

mgoblog's shameless bid for attention

mgoblog's recruiting philosophy

Blog Archive