Football: Twelve game schedule clears second-to-last hurdle

The rumblings have been that the 12 game schedule was going to be a go for a while now and they are coming to fruition. Wow, awkward sentence there. I'll do better next time. Editing is against the blogging ethos, you know.

Final word on whether Michigan will get to schedule another MAC team in '06 and beyond will come on April 28th.

Hockey: Final grades

I posted a set of midseason grades for the hockey team when the blog was still eating carrots from a jar, so it only seems appropriate to do likewise post-season. I have attempted to not let my disappointment over the season's end cloud my judgement... all in all it was a pretty good year, with the CCHA double and an NCAA tourney win. It could have been better, yes. The CC game will long linger with me as an official Stomach Punch game. The way the team was playing, the firepower they had... it could have been a Season For The Ages. Now it was just pretty good and fun to watch.

There are worse things.

Again, to recap the way this works: Grades should approximately average out to the overall grade for the season, which is sitting at B+. Players are graded on overall impact mixed with expectations... a fourth liner who performs admirably in his role can't get an A because he's a fourth liner, but he won't get a D just because he's a fourth liner.

Forwards
Jeff Tambellini: Why yes, I do take personal responsibility for the fact that Tambellini turned on all sorts of awesome after the midway point. If Sharp can take credit for MSU's Final Four run, I can take credit for Tambs. After all, gave him a harsh B+ and said that he was "capable of dominating like TJ but hasn't." And then... he did. Even though TJ Hensick was the Hobey candidate, Tambellini was the team's MVP, finishing third in the nation and first on the team in points with 57 and leading the team in plus/minus with a ridiculous +30. Tambellini managed to do this without dominating the puck nearly as much as Hensick and while backchecking furiously all season. Tambellini was a one-dimensional goal scorer as a freshman but a terrible season-long slump as a sophomore taught Tambellini all the things he could do without putting the puck in the net. This year Tambellini A and Tambellini B met and joined together Voltron-style, creating one hell of a hockey player. A. Probably going to return next year. If he does, a mortal lock for the C and a favorite for the Hobey Baker.

TJ Hensick: Michigan's designated Awesome Center Who Can't See Over A Steering Wheel got dogged in various quarters for being soft, hating physical play, hogging the puck, and playing crap defense. And I'm here to say that... well, all those things are basically true. But there isn't a player in college hockey who dares challenge him at the blue line on the power play, and when the puck is on his stick you had best be on the edge of your seat lest you miss something spectacular. Hensick's 23-32-55 line netted him a Hobey Baker nomination and the focus of every team Michigan played. A-. Deserved his benching after the Minnesota game but established himself as one of the nation's premiere offensive players. Flaws in his game may catch up to him in the pros but expect another Hobey candidacy next year.

Eric Nystrom: Nystrom never turned in to the kind of player you expect a top-ten NHL draft pick to be. His point totals decreased every year he played at Michigan and it looked like that would continue for a third straight year at the midseason point, when he had three goals and six assists after the GLI. Still, no one was upset with him. Nystrom had been moved to center on the checking line with nary a peep and had been busy playing the other end of the ice. He was what he was, and no more. Then a funny thing happened: pucks started going in all over the place. They were never pretty, never slick, but they were deserved. All the things that Nystrom did that never showed up on the scoreboard, well, started showing up on the scoreboard. And he picked up the team, and drove it, and Michigan was composed, firey, and cruising... until the collapse. When the dust cleared, though, you could see what the Flames saw in Nystrom. How could he not play in the NHL? A-. A worthy successor to Jed Ortmeyer, and that's the highest praise I can give a player.

Milan Gajic: About two and a half years into his Michigan career the light went on for Gajic and he turned into what Michigan fans expected when he arrived after lighting up the BCHL as an overager: a point-per-game scorer. Or close, at least. Gajic's patented left-faceoff-circle one-timer became a regular feature of the Michigan power play and chicks started wearing "Gajic Is Majic" t-shirts even though is name is pronounced "geish" (-ish). Gajic ended up a good second-liner for Michigan. B-. Still never figured out that defense stuff... Gajic's final shot in a Michigan uniform somehow found Curtis McElhinney's stick.

Andrew Ebbett: Can't shoot! Just can't! Doesn't! Won't! But he can pass and stuff. Witness his line this year: 6-31-37, mostly without the benefit of Hensick and Tambellini on his line. Ebbett did get benched for a weekend for unecessarily crosschecking a Western Michigan Bronco in the face immediately following a Bronco goal (which led to another power play, another goal, and a tight game in what had previously been a laugher), but after he returned he blew up, scoring 21 points in his final 18 games. He even scored a couple goals and stuff. When he isn't crosschecking opponents in the face, Ebbett can take those faceoffs: his 55% led Michigan this year and is an impressive number by itself, but especially so compared to Michigan's other centers. Ebbett is an effective player who'll find himself playing all phases of the game as a senior. A-. Leading candidate for the David Moss unsung hero award next year.

Kevin Porter: Porter finished an impressively diverse freshman year, playing in several different roles on several different lines throughout the year, eventually ending up as the guy riding shotgun with Tambellini and Hensick on the Line of Doom. Porter played on the second line with fellow freshman Chad Kolarik, on Eric Nystrom's checking line, on the penalty kill, on the power play--basically everywhere except defense. In doing so, he accrued a nice stat line: 11-13-24 and +11. Porter doesn't have the offensive creativity of fellow freshman Chad Kolarik, but is a much more rounded player than Kolarik who is effective on both ends of the ice. B+. Porter's already one of the better forwards on the team but isn't the kind of player opponents have to gameplan against.

Brandon Kaleniecki: Kaleniecki took a step back numbers-wise this year but that's not entirely unexpected. His 20 goal sophomore campaign had career year written all over it, and sure enough Kal dropped back to 13 as a junior. Kaleniecki can bury chances he's provided with and scrap for goals in the crease but can't do much to create his own chances. C+. Good as a crease-mucker and shooter and plays with grit but lacks ice vision.

Chad Kolarik: Kolarik filled the stat sheet out but his freshman year was a lot hollower than Kevin Porter's. Porter actually outscored Kolark at even strength17 to 15, as 18 of Kolarik's 35 points were on the power play. Kolarik didn't kill penalties either, and never will. That said, Kolarik is a creative, smart offensive player who has a knack for taking tricky shots. He's the better offensive player of the two freshman by a long shot--he's sort of a cross between Tambellini and Hensick. B+. Poised for a huge sophomore year flanking either Hensick or incoming goal-ninja Andrew Cogliano.

David Moss: As previously mentioned, there's a David Moss Unsung Hero award. This year it goes to David Moss. Moss is the kind of player who, say, ends up with 30 points at the end of the season without doing much except getting in the right positions at the right times and making intelligent decisions, which is exactly what happened this year. Moss bounced around from wing to center his entire career, from checking lines to scoring ones, played on the penalty kill and on the power play. He was effective at everything, but not a standout at anything. B+. Failed to reel in cousin Phil Kessel and got dinged up at the end of the year, but everything else was good.

Mike Brown: Really fell off after a very good freshman season, regressing in points (from 13 to 8) and leading the team in minors with 35 despite missing seven games and not playing extensive minutes. Last year Brown's speed and hard-nosed, physical play were noticable on the ice and he quickly became a fan (read: mgoblog) favorite. mgoblog even predicted that Brown would captain Michigan as a junior (ie, now), which looks sort of silly at the moment. Hopefully Brown can bounce back, with or without a letter on his jersey. C-. Brown was just not much of a factor this year unless he was heading to the box.

Jason Ryznar: Ryznar's career will always be what-might-have-been. He could not stay healthy for any of his four seasons at Michigan and could only occasionally flash hints at the massive potential lurking somewhere deep beneath his hulking frame. The story of Ryznar's career: coming off an early-sophomore-season injury, he took over the NCAA regional game against CC, annihilating the Tigers almost singlehandedly. He then continued his dominance into the Frozen Four against Minnesota--he would have scored the gamewinner if not for an amazing diving stick save by Gopher defenseman Keith Ballard (with mgoblog sitting right behind that net, mouth agape, hopes shattered)--and then immediately got injured again to start his junior year. Aye, what might have been. As it ended up, Ryznar was an effective checker and penalty killer who, when healthy, was dominant on the boards in both ends but never asserted himself offensively like he might have. B-. Good luck in the NHL, Ryz. There will always be a place for guys like you there.

Michael Woodford: Woodford was in and out of the lineup as a senior, but that wasn't entirely his fault. Michigan had more capable forwards than they knew what to do with and someone who could play defense but not much else got passed over in favor of more rounded players. Though prone to bad penalties and not much of a threat to score, Woodford was effective in his role and played capably down the stretch when he drew into the lineup after the move of David Rohlfs to defense. B-.

Charlie Henderson: Henderson was always a sentimental favorite of mgoblog since he seemed to sit out for most of the season and then score two points the first game he managed to get in by working his tail off and finding himself in the right place at the right time. On another team in the CCHA he would have been a regular. Hell, on most Michigan teams of the past decade that weren't healthy-scratching NHL draft picks he would have been a regular. Charlie, whose father is a die hard Spartan who may or may not actually be Tom Izzo (mgoblog research assistants are looking into it right now), opened the scoring in Michigan's wild and wooly 5-4 win over MSU this year and thus has eternal bragging rights in his family. Irrational B. Best walk-on in recent Michigan history. (Also, if mgoblog ever finds a second life as a whiteass rapper, that's his name: Irrational B. Yo.)

David Rohlfs: Rohlfs will face my judgement next year (tremble!) in the defensemen category, but since he did play most of this year at forward, he goes here. Hopes were high for Rohlfs going into this year, as Berenson had shown some affection for the jolly giant late in his freshman year, playing him on the second line and the power play despite his underwhelming numbers. The year definitively revealed that Rohlfs is a very large guy with decent mobility but little ability to play the puck. Next year he have new life on Michigan's bottom defense pairing, where his lack of hands won't be as much of a factor and his 230 pounds will help immensely. C+.

Defensemen
Eric Werner: I'll miss Eric Werner, even if I did frequently want to kill him. He represents everything I love about Berenson's high seas adventure style of hockey, and given the choice between remembering him skating back into his zone furiously after giving up yet another two-on-one or plunging into the slot--cutlass gripped between his teeth, eyepatch askew, parrot panicking, singing a song with lots of "yo-ho-ho"ing--to fire one past a confused landlubber of a goalie, I'll take the latter, dammit, and something for my scurvy while you're at it. (How about that sentence? Take that, Faulkner!) Werner was always limited by his size but was never a huge liability in the defensive zone. He occasionally made bad decisions, but proved over time that he made enough good ones (8-23-31 this year and +21) to forgive his gaffes. B+. Hyaaarrr! Avast! The only thing that consoles me about Werner's departure is that I expect Jack Johnson to be a cross between Werner and Godzilla.

Brandon Rogers: Rogers made a major leap between his freshman and sophomore years and then levelled off for the rest of his career. Fortunately for Michigan, the level was proficient offensively (5-22-27) and defensively(+21)--and nearly all-conference (second team as a junior, honorable mention this year). Rogers has been a consistently good performer for three straight years now and will be missed next year. He was never a dominant force like Komsarek, but he ends his career as one of the better Michigan defenders of the past 10 years. B+.

Jason Dest: Hello. My name is Brian, and I have a problem. Every year I pick a Wolverine defenseman and hate him with burning intensity for his various fobiles, screwups, and turnovers while completely ignoring anything positive this designated whipping boy may do. It's a sickness. Dest was that whipping boy for the first half of the season, but the screwups got so infrequent and the positive plays got so common that I had to shift my Palpatine-esque hatred to fellow sophomore Tim Cook (more on him later). Dest... actually played really well the second half of this season. He was able to cut down on his turnovers, step up his physical play, and generally play a very solid, capable game next to whirling dervish Eric Werner. By the end of the year, Dest was by far Michigan's most physical defenseman and became very effective shutting down opposing rushes. Dest had only eight points on the year but that's excusable since he saw almost no power play time and had to play good cop next to Werner. B. Would be higher but a poor first half holds him down. Actually a player I like seeing on the ice now, a remarkable in-season turnaround.

Matt Hunwick: Hunwick defines the term "quiet effectiveness" as it applies to defensemen in hockey. Did he really score 25 points? Yes. How? Dunno. He did end up with a +15, which was actually sort of low for a Wolverine defender (it's a good year for plus-minus when you play a team as bad as ND six times), but since he was invariably tasked with shutting down the opposing team's top line, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on that stat. Rogers and Hunwick took the toughest minutes Michigan's opponents could throw at them and came out sunny on the other side. B+. Look for more of the same next year.

Nick Martens: Full disclosure: I know a guy who knows Martens' brother. You don't really need to know that but I always wanted to say "full disclosure" like a big shot. Anyway, Martens was a mostly solid bottom-pairing defenseman who would occasionally make a glaring error. His job was to go out there and not screw up against middling opposing forwards and he did it for the most part. C.

Reilly Olson: Well, Olson finally got on the ice for Michigan and didn't play too badly, though it's clear by this point that he is very limited with the puck and has some issues with his skating. He'll probably return for a fifth year and compete with BU transfer Adam Dunlap to see who gets to be the guy who plays in the GLI and when Berenson gets pissed off at Cook. Incomplete.

Tim Cook: This season was a disaster for Cook, who managed to go the whole year on the nation's best offensive team without collecting a point and then got benched because Michigan decided that a forward could play defense better. Cook proved absolutely unable to stay in front of any forward with flash and/or dash and was finally bumped at the end of the year to make way for David Rohlfs. F. Nothing redeeming in this season for him. He must bounce back in a big way next year, as Michigan will have to play him.

Goalie

Al Montoya: Anyone who's read this blog for longer than, oh, about four minutes knows that it has dogged Montoya all season for playing sloppy, unfocused hockey. That won't change here. Montoya did have a very good game against Ohio State in the CCHA final, but one game shouldn't overshadow a season of erratic play and soft goals against. Montoya would occasionally emerge to show everyone what the big deal was with a monster save--most notably robbing WMU's Brent Walton with a second remaining to preserve a 5-4 Michigan victory at Lawson--but often the reason the monster save was relevant was because Montoya had allowed a goal or two that he absolutely should not have.

Montoya managed to get away with this and not sink the team's fortunes solely because Michigan had a historic season when it came to lighting the lamp. Can his awful save percentage (.895, good for 61st nationally) be explained by similarly awful defense? No. Michigan returned the exact same team Montoya played behind last year minus average defenseman Andy Burnes and checking center Dwight Helminen. Helminen was an excellent defensive player, but when 16 of the 18 skaters return you can't expect the team's average shot quality yielded to skyrocket. Can it be explained by simple random chance? Perhaps in some part, yes, but Montoya had 940 chances to prove himself this year. The likelihood that his save percentage doesn't reflect his performance this year is very low. There's no getting around it: Montoya was not a good goaltender this season. D.

I don't mean to come off like one of those guys who's main goal in life is to trash the things purportedly enjoys. I think Montoya is a fine person who can potentially be an excellent goalie. He was not this year. That much I believe is black and white for anyone who watched Michigan play. The numbers support that opinion. Montoya is capable of much better if he returns--which I had assumed was unlikely, but given the continued NHL turmoil is looking like a possibility.

Michigan's overriding theme next year will be redemption, and if Montoya returns, it will start with the man behind the mask.

Basketball: Money for nothing, stats for free

I love it when I get to point at someone else's content and claim it as my own. Valley Hawk over at Hawkeye Hoops has posted an interesting (if somewhat unattractive) graph of the Big Ten's various teams' offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. In a word... ugh. Michigan occupies a spot best described as about halfway between Penn State and Northwestern, which is somewhere you do not want to be in college basketball.

The graph also makes a decent case for Iowa improving next year in the win column, which will make Michigan's attempt to climb over them more difficult.

Let's tuck this graph away and compare about midway through the conference season next year. Michigan will have to be improved in offensive efficiency. It is inconcievable that they won't be. But the defensive efficiency number is extremely disturbing. Michigan had far less cause to suck on defense than offense this year. Was it due to turnovers? Walk-ons being as inelegant on the defensive side of the ball as they clearly were on the offensive side of the ball? Or was it just crap defense? I think the answer to the above is a little of all three.

Football: Gutz back in authoritative fashion

This Detroit News article covers one of the major stories of the spring: Gutierrez is back and looking like he always did, except with significantly reduced arm strength. He is expected to recover the latter by the fall. If he does Michigan fans should breathe a sigh of relief, as the huge question mark at backup quarterback will be resolved.

Might Gutz turn the period representing the starting spot in to a similar question mark? That's mighty unlikely and would probably only happen should Henne struggle significantly, something Michigan fans obviously don't want to see. But there are mutterings by people watching on a regular basis that Gutz has absolute command of the offense.

Might Lloyd go with... two quarterbacks? Well, not if he's learned his damn lesson, he won't. At least not in games against stiff competition. But mgoblog is going to bet that Gutz gets significant work against the MAC opponents and maybe a meaningful series or two against Notre Dame, just in case Henne gets hit by a bus.

Basketball: Shepherd shows well

The basketball recruit mgoblog has its all-seeing, Sauron-like eye on, Canadian Jevohn Shepherd, played well in the grandiosely titled "Nike Hoop Summit" over the weekend, displaying excellent athleticism and, as they say, the ability to get to the rack. Booyah. Shepherd scored 14 points on 6 of 15 shooting and grabbed 7 rebounds in 25 minutes.

Chad Ford gave Shep a thumbs up in his article on the game, stating that

Canada's Jevon[sic] Shepard[sic, come on Ford] looked like the
best player on the team during the practices and had a nice game for the
international squad. He already has NBA athleticism and a good body, but he's
going to have to work on his perimeter game.

mgoblog suggests that if you are going to imagine Shepherd (platonically, please), you should imagine a raw version of Bernard Robinson, Jr. that doesn't turn the ball over quite as much.

Oh, yeah, Tory Jackson! Bill Martin says that he and Amaker are "joined at the hip," so I wouldn't worry about TA's job security too much. You might worry about his freakish siamese-twin condition, but you can't have everything.

Duh Liveblog Collection

mgoblog is a reasonable blog... except when it's watching sports. Then everything that is good is WONDERFUL!!! and everything that is bad is THE WORST THING EVER!!! and referees are all threatened with castration.

Usually post-game everything settles down and mgoblog immediately regrets the things he said and thought and assaulted. This worked out great before the whole blog thing. Now the muttered or screamed impreciations against God and fate are preserved in Internet formaldehyde, so the only thing to do? Point 'em out!

June 9, 2005 -- Softball National Championship
June 6, 2005 -- Softball Championship Series Game 1/Pistons-Heat Game 7
April 23 2005 -- NFL Draft/Pistons-Sixers
January 15, 2005 -- Basketball @ PSU
January 8, 2005 -- Hockey @ WMU

PS: Firefox f... mess up.

Does anyone wise in the ways of CSS know why mgoblog displays wrong on Firefox? I wish to fix this but am stumped. Drop me a line at left if so.

Albomtraversy! Plus venting!

It's not a word. I don't care. But Mitch Albom got in some hot water for Jayson Blairing a recent column by referring to the nonexistent Final Four attendance of Mateen Cleaves and Jason Richardson as if it was, in fact, a fact. Now he gives the mea culpa.

mgoblog... sides with Mitch? What? Is that right?

Apparently it is. The column is indeed pretty embarrassing after the fact--Mitch refers to the attendance of the duo in the past tense several times and weaves a magical tapestry of nostalgia and triple rah rah rah from the amazing dedication of the Spartan pros. However, it can be safely filed under 'harmless.' It's a little sloppy, but I think Detroit gave up on the idea of "Mitch Albom, Sportswriter" long ago. He's now "Mitch Albom, Dispenser of Mediocre But Comforting Ideas About the Afterlife." Occasionally he deigns to descend from his Scrooge McDuck-like mountain of money to pen some misty human interest story when MSU is in the Final Four or the Pistons are in the Finals or Michigan is in the Rose Bowl or the Lions... well, he doesn't write about the Lions. He didn't uphold rigorous journalistic standards in his latest column but, uh... who cares? That's not his job. It's isn't really any sportswriter's job.

Because, fundamentally, holding up rigorous journalistic standards is about being trustworthy. It's about knowing what the hell you're talking about. It's about being taken seriously as an authority on the subject you're talking about, be it foreign policy, home repair, or sports. Unfortunately, It appears that 'trustworthy' is about as useful as 'willing to eat bugs' when it comes to getting a sportswriting job (note: I haven't ever looked for one, nor do I want one. I have a job in an entirely different field that I like). Who do I trust and believe when it comes to sports opinions? Uh. Lem Pasquarelli, Dr. Z, Bill Simmons, and John Hollinger. That's it. The rest of 'em I'm indifferent to or actively loathe, because its obvious that there's absolutely no thought put into 90% of today's sportswriting. I don't know whether it's a lack of time, intelligence, or motivation, but when's the last time you read something from the MSM and really learned something? When's the last time you read a really incisive, interesting article on any major sport?

mgoblog is beginning to come to grips with some terrible truths about sportswriting. It's hard, for starters. Even this half-assed no-revision embarassingly-typo-ridden version I purvey on a mostly daily basis is hard, and I am accountable to absolutely no one. I have this irresistable urge to pontificate knowingly on subjects I am completely ignorant about. I have come to grips with the fact that my knowledge is extremely limited... I know a ton about anything Michigan and a decent amount about anything regional, but nationally? I don't have the time or the desire to appropriately inform you, the reader, about what to expect in even the slightest way. That's why this is "mgoblog" and not "nationalcollegefootballgoblog."

And the thing is... my coverage of Michigan isn't absolutely comprehensive and knowledgable. It just isn't, and believe me, I spend a far greater portion of my life collecting and disseminating Michigan-related info than any sportswriter in the country spends on any particular team, beatwriters excluded. If I spent eight hours a day doing nothing but collecting information about one nationally popular sport, I would still be largely ignorant. I think this is a fundamental issue with sports writing, the mgoblog Sportswriting Uncertainty Principle: You can have either very deep knowledge about a narrow area or shallow knowledge of a wide one, but not both. Its collorary: Anyone who attempts to talk about everything is usually talking nonsense.

Even if the sportswriters of the country had mystically bestowed absolute knowledge they'd still be largely unreadable, though. Grantland Rice is dead and gone and there's no one to replace him. I mean, the nation's iconic sportswriter is... Mike Lupica? Woody Guthrie or whatever from Denver? Bob Ryan? Stephen A. Freaking Smith? No, no, no, and Jesus God no. I think the closest thing there is to National Sportswriter Laureate is none other than Bill Simmons, who, due to a fortunate confluence of sports pop culture drift, historic redemption in the Boston sports scene, and, you know, actually being a likeable normal guy instead of some bitter weirdo (guilty), has been a must read for myself and most people I know for the past few years.

Why? Well, MSM guys don't seem to give a damn what happens. If 'we' win, they write florid drippy tributes. If 'we' lose they write scathing calls for accountability. The check is the same size no matter what. I have a hard time believing that someone like Sharp or Guthrie or Lupica sits in front of the television actively rooting for a team. It shows in their writing, which is not anguished and suffering in bad times and is not genuine in good times. They just want somone to, in the immortal words of Rasheed Wallace, CTC. Cut the check.

In contrast, read Simmons. Who does he remind you of more... Sharp, Albom, Parker, Lupica, Ryan, Smith, et al, or, say, Big Ten Wonk, MidMajority, Yoni Cohen, and the burgeoning horde of unabashed fan bloggers that finally seems to be taking root? Anyone who lumped Simmons in with the first group, please slap yourselves. Simmons remains first and foremost a Boston sports fan... anyone reading his bizarrely hopeful and poignant column about the return of Antoine Walker, of all people, to the Celtics can't deny that Simmons bleeds and dies with his teams. The pure joy that leapt from the page during last year's World Series was not the broad, bland "hurray college" type stuff recently displayed by Albom or sportswriters in general when they're trying to pretend that they're not hardened cynics--it was deeply personal, about his dad, his friends, his city, his entire life. He's suffered with his teams and celebrated with him, and I can respect that.

That's what separates him from the rest of the MSM pack. He has a nigh-spiritual connection with the Celtics, Red Sox, and Patriots that drives him to pound out 2,500 words on Antoine Walker or 50,000 on the Red Sox World Series. He loves his teams. Sharp loves nothing except flagrantly disgusting hentai porn (if you are a Free Press lawyer, I am joking). Albom loves nothing except Morrie. Morrie and his pile of money. Simmons was and is... a blogger, an obsessive nut who writes for no other reason than to write, and that's why he's the man, man. The fact that he gets paid? Well, it's good to be the man.

Holy crap! Where did that come from? I guess I have a deep festering discontent with the assumption by newspapers and television networks that because I like sports that I can only understand the basest simplifications. And that it helps if the person giving me these simplifications YELLS REALLY LOUD. And then I was reading Big Ten Wonk's farewell week and it just struck me how mindbogglingly good it was, especially when compared to the tepid MSM stuff he links to with frequency. Who is John Gasaway? Where does he come from? Who cares? He is a dedicated fan, a hell of a writer, and funny as all git out. If you read nothing but Big Ten Wonk you will be better informed about the state of Big Ten basketball than if you were to read everything else. Period.

A salute to you, mysterious bloggerman! Return vengeful and unsated in the fall.

Fie to you, cynical and uncaring mainstream mediaites! Fie and woe!

Basketball: Lunardi not a believer

Joe Lunardi, he of the "bracketology" running feature on ESPN has a 2006 Preview up with 7, count 'em, 7 Big Ten teams... and no Michigan, who check in at #4 in "last four out."

Where to start? Well, how about here: what? The Big Ten looks very shaky next year. If 7 Big Ten teams end up in the tournament I'll eat my hat (I don't own a hat. I'll eat your hat). If 7 Big Ten teams end up in the tournament and Michigan isn't one of them, Tommy Amaker will be on the next donkey back to Durham.

Football: Some GBW content

GBW's posted a top 10 QBs nationally and how Michigan stands with each. Currently pinning hopes on Mitch Mustain of Arkansas. Big names Tebow and Stafford are probably out of the picture. Neil Caudle and Zach Frazer are plans A1 and A2... sounds like TX QB Sean Hakes is plan B.

Also, showing a sense of timing almost as bad as mgoblog's basketball season preview, GBW previews... Illinois! Yow!

Upcoming: full-season hockey grades (which you may have seen in an incomplete, screwed up form a couple days ago... think of it as an ultrasound) and a small tribute to the hockey seniors.

Basketball: Expectation level set.

Good news if you love Tommy Amaker. Good news if you hate Tommy Amaker. There seems to be a growing body of opinion that UM is a tournament team next year and that Amaker has assembled enough talent to demonstrate whether or not he can coach his way out of a wet paper bag.

CBS Sportsline's Gregg Doyel is the latest to chime in like so, adding Michigan to his list of ten new tourney teams for '06. Vegas odds that at some point next year CBS or ESPN shows an Amaker montage backed by "Under Pressure": pick 'em.

Football: Terrell to Pats

Hey, remember the Orange Bowl? I do. I remember screaming "throw it to Terrell, dammit!" every time Michigan did anything other than throw it to Terrell, dammit. Tom Brady remembers, too, and apparently urged the Pats to sign DT after he came on the market after a Bears career that can be fairly described as sucktastic.

This idea? Friggin' brilliant for all involved. DT now has a living breathing QB throwing to him, one who he knows quite well. NE picked up a guy, for all his attitude issue and lack of production, who has a ton of talent. Chances are that Terrell will get in line now that he's being coached by the NFL equivalent of God, Bill Belichick, and having balls tossed to him by the NFL equivalent of Jesus, Tom Brady.

Two words to sum up: Fantasy. Sleeper. (Also: giant. dork.)

Football: TSN Draft Capsules

TSN's posted a bunch of draft analysis as part of their "pay for this 31337 coverage" teaser, and several Wolverines are noted. Braylon, of course, along with Shazor, Baas, and Dudley, though Dudley's profile basically says "is a fullback."

Marlin Jackson is nowhere to be found on their top five cornerbacks list although he's likely to be one of the top five cornerbacks taken. Shazor and Dudley are both ranked #2 at their respective positions, though it seems like Dudley is still unlikely to be drafted. That's going to be a mistake if he's not. I know fullbacks are not exactly high in the NFL pecking order, but Dudley erased projected top 10 pick Derrick Johnson (Rose Bowl stat line: 1.5 tackles, 1 forced fumble) and any other linebacker he faced. He never caught the ball, sure, but if you've got third and two he's your man. He's well worth a late round draft pick for a team in need of a road grader.

Basketball: East Lansing Riot 2: ELPD's revenge

All right, I was somewhere between somewhat and and very intoxicated while this was going on, but I remember watching news coverage of what went on in East Lansing after MSU's loss to UNC and it was... weird. There were scattered students all apparently in transit from bars to their homes, cops in riot gear, and completely unnecessary tear gas.

The RCMB has a picture-laden rant detailing what certainly sounds like a huge overreaction by the ELPD in their anticipation of another Duke 1999 fiasco. Some dude with a much better camera also has a visual summary up. My favorite:


All in all, though, it looks like MSU students got done wrong here.

Basketball: State of the Program

A note: PPWS is Points Per Weighted Shot. See this post for a more detailed discussion.

I did this backwards, looking at next season before I looked back at this one. I was planning on correcting that, but... well, do you really want to read about last season? Do I want to write about it? Can we all agree that last season didn't actually happen? Ok! Super. The 2004-2005 basketball season was mysteriously cancelled, the rest of the nation had a mass delusion that it is still occurring and that I'm second in my NCAA basketball pool, and only fans of Michigan were mysteriously exempt from this bizarre paranormal phenomenon.

Okay, that's settled. I feel better. Now. Next year. Next year is The Year for Michigan and Amaker. Another bad season and recruiting class will sentence UM to more purgatory. A breakthrough and a class with DeShawn Sims, Tory Jackson, Tom Herzog, Klen Morris, and Someone Else and we're rolling. Next year is The Year. It's make or break time, kids.

On with the show.

Backcourt
Depth at last, depth at last. Sweet God Almighty, depth at last. Michigan will go from two scholarship players for the 1, 2, and 3 spots to seven. Lester Abram will return from a shoulder injury suffered at last year's NIT. Daniel Horton will return from suspension. Three freshmen will join them. Canadian Jevohn Shepherd is the most likely to receive extensive playing time.

The backcourt will be vastly improved. It would be hard not to be. Last year Michigan played Dion Harris almost 40 minutes a game and surrounded him with the kind of guys who make good human interest stories when they graduate with their degrees in astrophysics but look as out of place on the court as an Ohio State linebacker in class (zing!). This year, God willing, Michigan will start Horton, Harris, and Abram and keep them fresh with Jerret Smith, Jevohn Shepard, and Ron Coleman. Walk-ons petrified at the thought of shooting will no longer occupy the court at all times.

Junior SG Dion Harris gained a ton of valuable experience this year as the only offensive option on the floor and was forced to learn how to create his own shot while all five defenders were exclusively focused on him. He was erratically impressive towards the end of the year, breaking 20 points frequently despite Michigan's inability to take pressure off of him. In comparison, next year will feel Charmin-soft to Harris. His PPWS numbers and ATO ratio are bad, but if anyone gets a free pass for last year, it's Harris. He was often forced to jack up tough shots late in the shot clock simply because there was no one else who could possibly find a shot. Surrounded by scholarship players who can shoot, Harris should see his shots and turnovers plummet while his shooting percentage and assists rise.

Senior PG Daniel Horton regressed as a sophomore after a dynamic freshman campaign and had a star-crossed junior year where the focus was more on his injured knees and off-court behavior than on anything he did with the basketball in his hands. Assuming he returns with his head on straight next year, he should be an alternately acceptable and maddening next year. Horton is not the program savior he appeared to be when he was the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year in 2003. He is a streaky shooter who will take bad shots outside of the context of the offense. He is not much of a ball distributor and will turn the ball over more than a starting point guard should. He is not an all-Big Ten type player. He has never shot better than 39% from the field. He has never had an assist-to-turnover ratio above 1.2. This is unlikely to change.

Junior SF Lester Abram was desperately missed last year after leading Michigan in scoring in '04, despite taking 109 fewer shots than second place finisher Horton and 90 fewer shots than third place Bernard Robinson, Jr. Abram's shooting totals were flat ridiculous: 49% from the field, 41% percent from three, and 84% from the free-throw line. For a turnover- and rebounding-challenged team like Michigan, his offensive efficiency was the lifeblood of the team. And then it was gone. Abram is not a good distributor--in '04 his assist-to-turnover ratio was under one--and is only an adequate defender, but he takes good shots and makes efficient use of offensive possessions, unlike every other Wolverine not named Courtney Sims.

Sophomore SF Ron Coleman will benefit more than anyone else from the variety of weapons Michigan will have at its disposal next year. If Abram, Horton, or Harris manage to get dribble penetration, opponents will have to leave Coleman and his three-point stroke unguarded. Coleman has the chance to develop into a Lavell Blanchard-type small forward... if he develops. He'll never be the type of player to create his own shot, but he showed last year that he can be sporadically deadly given the opportunity to spot up and receive a kickout pass. If he can turn "sporadically" into "consistently" and drain 40% of his threes he'll be a very useful piece of the puzzle. He must improve his defense immensely if he's going to be anything other than a role-player, however.

The three freshmen arrive at Michigan sight unseen by mgoblog, unfortunately, but should contribute. Freshman PG Jerret Smith arrives as a "true point guard," which usually means that the player described as such can't shoot. This is true of Smith. It also usually means that the player described has a great assist-to-turnover ratio. This is not true of Smith, unfortunately, who is prone to bad decisions and bad turnovers. He'll fit in the Michigan backcourt perfectly. Snide comments aside, unless Smith undergoes a Barry Bonds pre-roids to Barry Bonds post-roids transformation it's unrealistic to expect much from Smith over the course of his career. If he can replace Horton for ten or so minutes a game, get his turnovers under control, and run what passes for an offense at Michigan, consider it a win.

Freshman SF Kendrick Price will face a difficult transition from high school to college. His height (6'8") dictates that he play inside at Buckingham Browne and Nichols, his high school, but his weight (approximately 6 pounds) and shooting touch appear to point to a college career at small forward. Price will have to adapt to an entirely new position and role on both offense and defense. The good news is that Price is a great athlete with a high ceiling who could develop into a poor man's Kevin Garnett who fills out the stat sheet with points, rebound, assists, and blocks. Sky is the limit here, but there's also strong bust potential.

Freshman SG Jevohn Shepherd will be the most immediate help to the Wolverine backcourt. Shepherd is Canadian and thus way off most guru's radar and way too into putting gravy on his fries. Vince Baldwin is a big fan, though, claiming that if Shepherd was American he would easily be a top 50 recruit. Shepherd is reputed to be an athletic slasher who can get to the hoop and finish, something that Michigan lacks at the moment. Another exciting athlete, Shepherd has a much more polished and college-ready game than the other two freshman and should immediately see playing time spelling Abram and Harris.

Frontcourt
Unless '05 recruit Uche Echefu chooses Michigan over schools like Duke, North Carolina and Wake Forest (uh, unlikely), Michigan will return the same frontcourt rotation it used this year minus turnover machine JC Mathis. Any improvements will have to come from within.

Senior PF Graham Brown is maxed out as a player. He'll scrap for you, dive for loose balls, rebound, take charges, and get his shot blocked with alarming consistency. He'd be a good 10-15 minutes a night role-player for any Big Ten team, but Michigan will probably be forced to use him more. The fact that he's not much of a scorer shouldn't be much of a problem as long as he's not on the floor with Smith, Coleman, and Petway at the same time, and he'll play with intelligence and toughness.

Junior PF Brent Petway can rap, poorly. He can also jump tall buildings in a single bound. He can't do much offensively other than throw down thunderous dunks, but he brings rebounding, shot blocking, and tremendous energy as a bench substitute. He should see about 20 minutes a game alternating with Brown, as they’re both non-scorers but bring a lot of intangibles to the table.

Senior PF Chris Hunter has turned out to be exactly the player recruiting gurus projected to him to be: a skilled offensive big man who shows little fire on the defensive end of the court and is a below-average rebounder. Hunter has a diverse offensive game that extends from the block all the way out to the three point line and was highly effective when healthy this year, but that was infrequent. Hunter sat out large sections of the season nursing various ankle sprains, bruises, and other Vince-Carter-ish “suck it up and get out there” injuries. Hunter, when healthy, should provide scoring punch off the bench next year but there will be many situations that he will be ill-suited for when he is matched up against a stronger, meaner post.

Junior C Courtney Sims is the key to next year's frontcourt. You know what you're going to get from Brown. Petway's offensive skill is unlikely to take a quantum leap forward. Chris Hunter is going to be injured and poor defensively. If there is going to be a frontcourt centerpiece, it will be Sims.

There's no questioning Sims' shot blocking and post ability, but he has shown little fire or competitiveness in his first two years at Michigan, often getting dominated by players with half his physical gifts but twice his determination. Sims got shoved out of position far too much for a player with his size and skill, failed to rebound effectively, and often disappeared for long stretches at a time, especially when matched up against high-quality opposition.

Sims' year was not the complete loss many made it out to be, however. He averaged a decent 9.8 points and had a very respectable PPWS of 1.26--up from 1.14 as a freshman--in about 23 minutes a game. He increased his shooting percentage, free throw percentage, and rebounding average. He made a step forward. It was not the giant leap many expected at the beginning of the season, but it was not a disaster, either.

The disturbing number for Sims was his shot attempts: 200, only eight more than his freshman year. Sims was healthy, unlike the rest of the roster, shot almost 60% from the field, and was unquestionably the second offensive option behind Dion Harris during the Big Ten tailspin, but could not get off any extra shots, partially because his passive play forced Amaker to bench him (thus the 23 minutes a game) when he has the skill to be All Big Ten.

Keys to Next Season

Get Horton under control.
Horton needs to understand that he is the third or fourth offensive option on the team, behind Sims, Abram, and possibly Harris. Amaker must not tolerate Horton taking rushed shots without even attempting to find an open man. Amaker, for the first time in his tenure at Michigan, will have the option of yanking players who displease him. He must use it early and often to reign in the often out-of-control Horton.

Get Sims more shots.
This is half on Sims and half on the guards. Sims is a deadly efficient post player when he gets position. Michigan must work the ball around to get good entry angles to pass into the post, and Sims must get better position on the block on a more consistent basis. If Sims averages 14 or 15 a game, Michigan will be in good shape. This is a huge test of Amaker’s ability to coach up kids. Sims has the tools. Amaker must install the attitude.

Penetrate and dish.
Michigan's "motion offense" largely consists of passing it around the perimeter between Graham Brown and Brent Petway before a rushed, off-balance three by a player guarded by two opponents and a Doberman pinscher. Michigan must find a player who can consistently break down opponents off the dribble, force help defense to respond, and find the open man. Harris is the likely candidate after his trial by fire last year, but watch out for Jevohn Shepherd.

Box out.
For Christ's sake. Just do it. There's absolutely no excuse for Michigan to get horribly out-rebounded with more legitimate Big Ten post players than any team in the conference.

Play smart.
Amaker's teams have often looked like five headless chickens running around wondering what all the fuss is about. This cannot continue. The offensive deficiencies this year can be excused, but the multiple and flagrant defensive breakdowns (dunkfest vs. MSU prominent amongst them) cannot. Amaker has not shown he can produce a disciplined team that gets the most of their talent.

Outlook
The team will be better. Michigan loses no one except seldom-used JC Mathis and will have five players at its disposal that were not available during the tailspin at the end of last year: the three freshmen, Horton, and Abram. Abram's return is the key. If he can perform like he did as a sophomore he will be by far the team's best player and a strong candidate for next year's All-Wonk team. His PPWS as a sophomore was an excellent 1.28, higher than anyone on the team this year. It would have been good for a tie for seventh in the Big Ten this year.

The million dollar question: is this a tournament team? A lot of people think this should be a lead-pipe cinch or Amaker should be sent packing. I disagree. Amaker's put together a decent roster and rebuilt a program in utter shambles before his arrival, but there are serious issues with this team. Daniel Horton is simply not a high caliber point guard, as his numbers show. The frontcourt is inconsistent. The team can't rebound for beans. Expecting Michigan to explode next year is unrealistic.

That said... yes, this is a tournament team. Michigan will be deep and experienced and should have three of the conference's better players in Harris, Abram, and Sims. MSU and Illinois should be significantly weakened by graduation losses and NBA defections. If Michigan does not make the tournament, fans and media will start preparing the hangman's noose for Amaker, and it won't be without reason.

The Prediction
Abram returns and is rusty for a while. Harris gets a lot better surrounded by living, breathing players. Horton disappoints again. Shepherd makes a splash. Sims takes another step forward and becomes a little bit more consistent.

The offense is radically better but still turnover prone. The defense is mediocre at best and has several ridiculous breakdowns. Rebounding improves a little bit.

The scoring punch of the backcourt wins Michigan some games it shouldn't but the inconsistency of Horton and Sims costs Michigan some games it should win. Michigan finishes with around 22 wins, gets a 7 seed in the tournament, wins a game, and bows out in the second round.

Something happen!

Arrrgh. Would something relevant happen? Please? A commitment, maybe, or some encouraging news or something. You, blog readers! Go do something Michigan-related and newsworthy.

Eh. Word-brick coming up on bball pretty soon. Hang in there.

Courage.

Basketball: Abra(ha)m will lead us to the promised land

I am a fan of Big Ten Wonk, as any red-blooded flyover country Big Ten fan should be, and have been observing with interest his Points Per Weighted Shot tracking over the course of the year (which was cannily devised by John Hollinger, brazenly renamed by Big Ten Wonk, and appropriated for Michigan-related purposes by mgoblog). Anyone looking at Michigan's numbers can see that they are bad. This is not surprising, because Michigan is a bad team.

But let's take a fantastic voyage... inside the numbers!!! To do this, we need some numbers. Number wrangling, Excel hassling, eventual defeat and the last resort of a screenshot produces this:


I've highlighted numbers I find interesting. Included are all players of significance from this year and last year. First of all: Horton is horrible at this stat. Putrescent. He has two of the four worst scores over the past two years (one, admittedly in a season abbreviated by injury and legal issues). The other two low scores are from Coleman and Harris this year. Coleman and Harris can plead Dani Wohl and John Andrews. Horton has no such mitigating factors.

Second, the numbers seem to support the idea that Harris' awful '05 season can be excused. I tracked some difference stats at the bottom of the chart (basically '05 stats minus '04 stats, leaving all the "extra" shots players took this year). Harris's 131 extra FG attempts and 25 extra FT attempts yielded only 101 points, or 0.71 points per shot. That's atrocious. The player in dead last on BTW's final regular season chart, Purdue's Brandon McKnight, kicks the crap out of it with his 0.87. The working theory of mgoblog is that Harris was forced to take a zillion extremely tough shots because no one else on the floor could create and that his numbers this year are not his fault.

Third, break out the harps, angels, and assorted iconic imagery, because Lester's coming back. PPWS is not a perfect stat. It often overrates players like, say, Brent Petway, who get infrequent shot attempts that are usually thunder-dunks or offensive putbacks but cannot create their own shot. It's better for comparing posts to posts and perimeter players to perimeter players. The real sign of a great player is high PPWS and high volume. See Dee Brown, dominating PPWS this year and taking a truckload of shots doing it. Lester took 257 shots in '04 and finished with 1.28 PPWS, which would be good for seventh in the league this year, behind only a bunch of players from MSU and Illinois... Final Four-bound MSU and Illinois who have multiple efficient offensive options, get a lot of assists, and are generally well-coached basketball teams. Lester does not operate in that sort of environment, and he's still hanging with the very best the Big Ten has to offer. Lester is not a good college player. He is a great college player, and his loss is what murderified this year. He's the kind of player you find on championship teams.

Next year, Abram will be back. If he matches his '04 performance he'll be turning Harris's league worst 0.71 point shots into something approaching the league's best 1.28 point shots. Harris's PPWS will shoot up as well, as he'll actually have an option other than taking an off-balance runner while having his liver eaten by a giant eagle. Coleman should get a good number of open looks for his three-point stroke with better players on the floor around him.

Better days are coming.

Basketball: Shepherd is the One

The one chosen to represent Canada in a US vs. the World All-Star game, that is. Impressive given that highly ranked UCLA recruit Ryan Wright, who considered Michigan, is also from the Great White North.

This is what Shepherd's coach thinks of him:

"If he finishes off well, people will be putting him in that class as one of the best (high school) players ever produced in Canada," Dawkins said. "And if you combine that with his character, he could be one of the greatest of them all out of Toronto."

Mmmm, that's good praise. Hopefully he can contribute immediately.

Basketball: I read Sharp so you don't have to!

Ugh. The only thing more sickening than Drew Sharp trashing class college athletes as "losers" is Drew Sharp praising them.

"On a day that celebrated resurrection, Michigan State rose from the ashes of stinging doubt to reach its expectations," says Sharp. Gee, I wonder whose stinging doubt we could be referring to, hmmm? Maybe yours, you front-running bandwagon fool? Could you have said something like "these guys just don't have it"? Or maybe something like "they're already done" after the Iowa BTT loss? Perhaps the main media voice that was driving the trashing of Hill, Anderson, Davis, et al, was yours, hmmm?

Sharp's spent all year trashing the MSU seniors for being choking losers, running a column after every loss about how pathetic they are. Now they're in St. Louis, in the Final Four, and does Sharp mention this fact in any of his fawning "they're just tougher" columns? No. He just jumps on the bandwagon and hopes people don't remember. How does this guy have a job? Why isn't he working in a White Castle somewhere? We'll never know.

What we do know is that "Razor Sharp" stands at #1,388,509 on Amazon, slightly below "Hitler's Book of Bedtime Stories" and only three above "This Book Doesn't Exist." The man is a joke.

Speaking of jokes, check out this review of "Razor Sharp," which is awesome.

Uh, what now?

I dunno. All three major sports are finished this year. Spring practice is in full swing, but information regarding said practice is generally either premium or non-existent. Recruiting will probably trundle along sleepily until the mid-summer camp.

I have these things on my plate for the spring and summer: a "State of the Program" for both basketball and hockey, a Hockey Recruiting Blowout(!), NFL draft coverage as it relates to Wolverines (and, cough, the Lions), and any targets of opportunity that present themselves. So. Be on the lookout for three to four diatribes you could print out and stun a water buffalo with, but hugely substantive posting is probably going to be on the low side, since news of substance will probably be scarce. I was hoping to make this post in two weeks, but apparently God has decided that this is the year of Extremely Painful Michigan Sports... Rose Bowl, basketball disaster, CC game... Worst. Year. Ever.

Worst in the Sports-Guy "stomach punch" sense, that is, not the Bobby Williams "49-3" sense. But you knew that already.