Michigan Preview Part I: Offense

All video links are courtesy the indispensable IBFC.

The Story

It was, simply, The Year of Infinite Pain. No doubt the vast majority who read this remember it in every garment-rending detail from the first Garrett Wolfe scamper to the last colossal Tyler Ecker error. Games weren't just lost in quantities heretofore unknown east of Lansing, they were wrenched away by an angry God, an Old Testament God.

Let us count the plagues:

• Chad Henne fumbles on a quarterback sneak from the one yard line in a 17-10 loss to Notre Dame; on the previous, unreviewed play the entire top half of his body was in the endzone.
• Brian Calhoun of Wisconsin slices the Michigan defense to shreds on their last-gasp fourth quarter drive for the win.
• Facing third and ten from deep in their own half, Minnesota concedes overtime and hands off to Gary Russell, who blows past the Michigan defense en route to 61 yards and a game-winning Gopher field goal.
• Michigan blows a two-score lead against Ohio State after punting on fourth and four with a chance to salt the game away.
• A late turnover and constant buggering at the hands of incompetent Sun Belt refs are almost overcome by the most improbable play since Stanford-Cal, but Tyler Ecker plows into two defenders instead of pitching it to Steve Freakin' Breaston.

Yea, woe came upon them, and they looked unto Job and said "you think you've got problems? Our second leading tackler is a cornerback."

It would be easy to dismiss the above as plain bad luck if Michigan didn't scrape past the teams it did manage to beat. The Iowa and Michigan State games were won in overtime; Penn State was defeated at literally the last second. Even games against Northwestern and Northern Illinois were not cakewalks. Without huge, momentum swinging turnovers in both games they would likely have gone down to the wire. No, Michigan 2005 largely deserved the ugly record they collected with their play on the field. They could neither run nor stop the run. They could not pass. They elected to not block the punt gunners. Twenty-seven-yard game-winning field goals were to be missed by the fat little kicker. Opportunities to put the game away by converting on fourth down were eschewed in favor of fifteen yard punts. The defense was incapable of stopping opponents on first drives or last ones. Were it not for the magic of the wide receiver screen, Michigan may have set records for offensive futility. By the end of it, all Michigan fans had left was the basketball team's run to its first NCAA tournament since... what? They lost to Minnesota?

It was not a good year to, say, write a book called "A Season in the Big House: An Unscripted, Insider Look at the Marvel of Michigan Football". Other books in this series:

• "San Francisco is Faultess," copyright 1906
• "Britney Spears: Just Getting Started," copyright any time before she became a swamp monster
  
• "Return to Glory: Inside Tyrone Willingham's Amazing First Season at Notre Dame"

It was clear that changes needed to be made. Offensive coordinator Terry Malone -- who this blog has long argued was given a raw deal -- was the first to go, accepting a position as the tight ends coach of the Saints. It seemed that defensive coordinator Jim Herrmann was next, clearing the way for defensive backs coach Ron English to inject some life into a flaccid Michigan defense. When English apparently lost the power-struggle between sanity and continued six-deep zones by accepting a position as defensive backs coach of the Chicago Bears, depression turned to outright panic. Ann Arbor Torch & Pitchfork sold out of everything. A citizen brigade prepared to march on Schembechler hall. A nation waited with bated breath.

Tensions were defused when English before abruptly reversed course and returned to Michigan as defensive coordinator. Herrmann was replaced in his capacity as linebackers coach by longtime NFL assistant Steve Szabo. Former Wisconsin secondary coach Ron Lee was brought in to coach the cornerbacks. Shockingly, English is the dean of the defensive staff with only three years as a Wolverine. This is not be your father's Michigan defense. It may not be your four-year-old daughter's.

Relieved of the oppressive mustache, hope burgeons once again. Only six starters depart from last year's team, three of those substandard by any measure. The others have capable replacements lined up. In Herrmann's place is a dynamic young coach who seems ready to overthrow years of stodgy, dated theory and assume his place next to Charlie Weis, Charlie Weis, and Charlie Weis on the new Mount Rushmore of football. Mike Hart and Jake Long are fully healed.

So, yeah: there's a chance.

Unit By Unit

Quarterback

Rating: 3.5.

QB	Yr.
Chad Henne	Jr.
Jason Forcier	Fr.*
David Cone	Fr.

There's no sugarcoating Henne's sophomore year: it was bad. You can show me the numbers and make comparisons to John Navarre's pace and point out a nice touchdown-to-interception ratio, but I will tell you that I watched the games, all the games, three times and categorized every pass he threw a year ago and that you are wrong. The numbers lie. They lie in these ways:

• A large number of "passing" yards that aren't. For much of the year Michigan's main passing weapon was the wide receiver screen. Henne probably threw ten a game, most of which were completed to little shifty buggers like Breaston and Manningham. The yards gained on these plays were critical but demanded little from Henne aside from a short, catchable throw. These screens are not tenable in the long run -- Ohio State jumped almost every one -- and can't be used with as much frequency this year now that they've been extensively scouted.
  
• A failure to take strength of opponent into account. Last year was the year of terrible defense in the Big Ten. Michigan took advantage of precisely zero of these defenses and pissed away opportunities to win games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Minnesota largely because Henne was incapable of hitting a receiver downfield.

Here's a game-by-game review of Henne's performance against pulse-bearing opponents snipped from the UFRs:

• ND: OMG HENNE SUX. [note that this is fictional-combative-question-guy, not me -ed]
  
  He actually didn't in the first half until late where you see two instances of unnecessary rollouts because he's lost faith in his blitz pickups. In the second half ... Henne went on tilt. ... You've gone from 23/33 in the "good" category to 22/44 plus a couple sacks and the goal-line fumble. Some of that was due to pressure but the two huge, touchdown-stealing mistakes were totally unforced.
• Wisconsin: Goats?
  
  #1, #2, #3: Henne. Simply put, if he makes any one of six to eight relatively easy throws we probably win this game.
• Michigan State: ...when you try to pass 37 times and get four execution errors from your quarterback, you are in the business, as they say.
  
  Michigan only went deep twice and neither throw was perfect, but one was a 45 yard touchdown and the other was placed so that Avant had a chance but no one else did. The 15 yard outs and little zone stops were all thrown accurately. There were a couple instances of miscommunication on option routes, but, man... 36 throws. One inaccurate. That's night and day.
• Minnesota: Henne didn't have a great game. It wasn't as bad as the Wisconsin performance but it wasn't very efficient, either... Henne seemed to throw late or sit in the pocket unable to find an open receiver too often against a weak Minnesota secondary. ...
  Four of Henne's five inaccurate passes were thrown towards an open Avant in the endzone. Michigan scored on one of those drives, got a field goal on another, and crapped out on the other two. Two of the throws were relatively deep downfield (20-30 yards), the other two were a fade launched into the crowd and a badly overthrown slant.
• Penn State: Given the preponderance of screens and long handoffs (12 in total, 1 IN, one BA), Henne had a really bad day. On downfield throws he was acceptable or better on 14 of them and had 16 instances where he either missed, threw the ball away because no one was open, or messed up his read. Penn State is a good defense but when Michigan dropped back to pass the ball didn't even get in a place where it could possibly be caught more than 50% of the time, and several of the instances in which it did were little checkdowns.
• Iowa: I'm torn. On the one hand he rifled a fair quantity of balls directly into the hands of Michigan wide receivers. On the other, he rifled a few critical third downs into the crowd without an Iowa player within three yards of him. ... Strangely enough, Henne seemed to be inaccurate on a lot of short stop routes that should be easy for any quarterback (and certainly were for Tate). ... Still, this was probably his best performance of the year considering the level of competition. Those seven DOs were all nice throws that were either far downfield or that led receivers for big chunks of YAC.
• Northwestern: The best thing about Henne this year is that he throws a mean WR screen. That's only partially sarcastic -- those throws are tougher than they appear and Henne has put every one on the money this year -- but, yeah, it's sarcastic. I mean, dude went approximately 1/3rd of the game without completing anything other than some screens and a three yard dumpoff to Tabb on third and nine. It's nice that we had a semblance of an offense in spite of that, but it's not going to fly against OSU.
• Ohio State: In a word, magnificent. ... you have two instances of bad play: the Ecker overthrow in the endzone and the throw to Ecker at the end of the game (not enough time to check down, there, just risk the INT). ... This was Henne's best performance of his career... to be that effective against that defense and with that revolving door of grimly futile interior blockers is incredible.
  
  If the guy who showed up against OSU had played all year, Michigan beats both UW and Minnesota with ease and probably beats Notre Dame, Jason Avant is a Belitnikoff finalist, and Joey isn't planning on hanging himself.

[In a fit of pique I did not UFR the Alamo Bowl, something which I regret now. I remember Henne being good and his numbers (21/43, 270, 3 TD/1 INT) support that but I feel naked trying to comment on a UFR-less game. -ed]

In total: five bad performances (NW, Wisconsin, ND, Minnesota, Penn State), one okay one (Iowa), one good one (MSU), and one completely inexplicable masterpiece (OSU). That is not the profile of a great quarterback or even an average one.

Henne is granted a stay of execution as the mitigating factors flew fast and furious. He was often under duress as Matt Lentz, Leo Henige, and Rueben Riley played revolving door at various times during the year. When opponents blitzed, freshman Kevin Grady often blew pickups that Mike Hart would likely have made. When Henne managed to hit receivers downfield, particularly Breaston, they were unable to catch the ball. Hart's absence and the impotent run game that it caused also put him in a large number of obvious passing downs (like, say, first and ten versus OSU) during which the defense could exploit the shaky offensive line. Henne's '05 environment was not a good place to do anything but fail. This, by in large, he did.

But if John Stocco teaches us anything, it's that quarterbacks are not static year-to-year. The great fear of Michigan fans going into last year -- that a cocky Henne spent the summer of '05 offseason drinking and playing Tecmo Bowl -- is now our great hope. Newly chastened and studious, we envision Henne playing like the Henne of our dreams: the one who was nigh-perfect against Ohio State. The one who barked at Carr until he went for a fourth and inches on his side of midfield. The one who beat OSU until Herrmann herrmanned it away.

There's no way to tell if we'll get that Henne or the Mr. Hyde who rifled the Wisconsin game into the stands. If history is any indication he will improve, especially if the new guards deign to block opponents and Hart remains healthy. On this five-point ranking scale he could end up anywhere from a 2 to a 5 and anyone who tries to tell you exactly where he'll fall is guessing.

Running Back
Rating: 5.

RB	Yr.	FB	Yr.
Mike Hart	Jr.	Obi Oluigbo	Sr.*
Kevin Grady	So.	Will Paul	Jr.*
Carlos Brown	Fr.	Brian Thompson	Sr.*
Jerome Jackson	Sr.*	Andre Criswell	Fr.*

Mike Hart's maddening 2005 season was largely spent on the cusp of the game (in pads, on the sideline, waiting) instead of greatness. A series of ankle and hamstring injuries sidelined the magic midget for most of the season and hampered him when he did play. When he was healthy, he showed the talent that had Michigan fans salivating after his freshman year. He passed 100 yards in every game he completed, including 148 via air and land against Penn State's imposing defense. What struggles he had were due more to the historically inept run blocking than any particular deficiency on his part, though he did conclusively prove that he doesn't have breakaway speed on two runs versus MSU. He also proved that his vision, cutting, drive, and leadership are indispensable to the Michigan offense. Hart can do this:



There you go: vision, change of direction, and an ability to drag more weight than a pickup truck. Hart is also an able receiver out of the backfield and capable pass blocker. I am incapable of being remotely unbiased about him, but in my opinion he's one of the best running backs in the country.

Backup Kevin Grady played like a freshman last year, harsh reality for Michigan fans suddenly used to short guys rolling off the street and dominating the league. He showed the occasional burst of power (there was a memorable HULK SMASH touchdown against Indiana, though you extrapolate from Hoosier games at your peril) but the difference between Hart and Grady was stark. Used to slower high school defenders, Grady would often make cuts that turned eight yard gains into two. He didn't show much of his much-hyped power and was limited to a few simple plays, foremost among them the toss sweep. Having seen one erroneous cut too many, midway through the Iowa game Carr lifted him in favor of little-used junior Jerome Jackson. Grady returns for his sophomore year fifteen pounds lighter, vowing to improve his performance. Once he gets adapted to the college game he probably will, but two hard-charging freshmen will put his backup job under threat this year.

One of those incoming freshman, Carlos Brown, was a shock commitment from Georgia -- he had already publicly eliminated Michigan when he committed -- who inherited Antonio Bass' role as the Totally Surprising QB Draw Guy when Bass' knee exploded just before spring practice. A high school quarterback, Brown will have to learn blitz pickups and receiving from scratch. He's not likely to see much time early but he is without question the fastest Michigan tailback and can fill a role resting Hart or running a Totally Surprising QB Draw here and there. The other new face is Brandon Minor, who was less hyped by the gurus but more hyped by coaches and players who have seen him grind forward like a spastic glacier all of fall camp. Carr guarantees he'll play, so he must be talented.

Also seeing the occasional snap will be Mister Simpson and Jackson.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Rating: 4.

Depth Chart

WR	Yr.	WR	Yr.	TE	Yr.
Mario Manningham	So.	Steve Breaston	Sr.*	Tyler Ecker	Sr.*
Adrian Arrington	So.*	LaTerryal Savoy	Fr.*	Mike Massey	So.*
Doug Dutch	So.*	Carl Tabb	Sr.*	Carson Butler	Fr.*
Alijah Bradley	Sr.*	Greg Mathews	Fr.	Quintin Woods	Fr.

Steve Breaston did not live up to the hype offered here and elsewhere, suffering through a series of nagging injuries it seems he may never shake and dropping the long passes that found his way to, and then through, his hands. He did have his moments -- Michigan's first kickoff return for a touchdown since the paleolithic era against Minnesota and a 52-yard slip-screen touchdown against Iowa -- but his season totals were paltry: 36 offensive touches for under 400 yards. At this point Breaston's near-constant nagging leg, arm, torso, head, and aura injuries seem unlikely to ever recede to the point where he can replicate his form as a redshirt freshman which got the hype train rolling in the first place. Michigan might be better off with Breaston as a starter in name only, deploying him as a slot receiver against overmatched nickel backs and linebackers. He will no doubt turn in several !!! plays this year, but they'll be too infrequent to erase the "what if?" looming over the end of his career here.

Sophomore Mario Manningham had the best season by a Michigan freshman receiver since some guy named AC. You may remember him from such highlights as "Yet Another Touchdown Versus Jaren Hayes," "Justin King Should Have Come To Michigan," and "The Only Good Thing About Last Season." You may not remember that Manningham spent a large portion of the year on the bench, confused. Even though Michigan was breaking him in easy, the confusion often leaked on to the field. His touchdown against Notre Dame would not have happened had Erik Campbell not screamed at him to tighten up his split pre-snap. A critical Chad Henne interception against Iowa came when Manningham failed to break off his route. And yet when the year was over he had a nickname and the attention of Big Ten fans across the Midwest. Assuming that Manningham has the playbook down, fireworks pend. With a full year of experience and a first collegiate offseason, a non-confused version of Super Mario will actually play most of the time, establishing himself as Henne's go-to guy and emerging as Michigan's dreaded receiver du jour after a one-year hiatus.

The depth is unproven but potential-laden. Adrian Arrington, LaTerryal Savoy, and Greg Mathews will all vie to replace Avant's steady over-the-middle production. Arrington looks to have the inside track: he was chosen to receive frustrating, redshirt-burning time as a freshman in order to prepare him to contribute sooner and generated a ton of practice buzz last summer before severely injuring his ankle in the fall and missing last year entirely. As a prep he was highly touted, featuring on both Scout and Rivals' top 100 lists despite playing in buzz-free Iowa. Carr has repeatedly mentioned him third after Breaston and Manningham when questioned about wide receivers. Savoy and Matthews are bulkier types who compare best to Avant since they're both supposed to have less than ideal speed. In fact, Savoy was labeled "Avant 2.0" by this very site a long, long time ago; Mathews was tagged "Marquise Walker". Savoy was a three-star type out of Louisiana who excelled on both sides of the ball. He caught a touchdown in the spring "game". Mathews' profile increased throughout the year until he found himself on the tail end of the Rivals 100 despite having an implausibly ugly 4.79 listed as his 40 time.

Doug Dutch and Carl Tabb are smaller receivers who figure to be on the outside looking in this year. That's unfortunate for Tabb, who's done yeoman work as the safety on kick returns for three years and has performed acceptably when called upon. This is his last year and despite his speed he looks destined to be the Jermaine Gonzales of 2006. Dutch still has a couple of cracks after this year, but to contribute he's going to have to learn how to catch. Also slumming it down here is fifth-year walk-on Alijah Bradley, whose counter draw for nine yards against OSU was Michigan's longest run of that game. The coaches have been talking Bradley up for some time and flipped him out to flanker in an effort to get him on the field. He'll probably find himself on the end of a few screens this year.

Antonio Bass has an exploded knee and will redshirt.

Tight end Tyler Ecker was most notable for a clutch catch in the 2003 Ohio State game before last year, when two one-score games died with the ball in Ecker's hands after he had done something stupid. His error against Ohio State was annoying but probably moot, as Michigan would have had something like twelve seconds to drive seventy yards, but against Nebraska Michigan was one pitch away from a play that would live in college football history -- Ecker had Steve Freakin' Breaston cruising two yards behind him -- when he decided that getting tackled at the twenty was a better idea. As a result Michigan fans are a little peeved at the senior despite his play, which has been above average for a long time now. Ecker is a big target with soft hands and the speed to hit the seam against most teams. He's not a crushing, Spaethian blocker but is a reliable midrange option who wouldn't be a bad replacement for a good hunk of Avant's catches.

Backing up Ecker will be redshirt sophomore Mike Massey, much-maligned Pat's brother, and redshirt freshman Carson Butler. Massey saw some time last year when Tim Massaquoi broke his hand, displaying good hands but questionable blocking skills. Butler is a sleeper recruit in the true sense of the word. In high school he focused on basketball until his senior year, when he terrorized Detroit Public School league cornerbacks as a hilariously oversized wide receiver. After a year of honing, Michigan thinks they've found a future star. Butler is supposed to be Braylon at tight end, a man who cannot be covered by man nor beast. He has promise but is still raw even after a redshirt year. Expect him to tantalize on erratic snaps much like Tim Jamison did a year ago.


Offensive Line
Rating: 3.

Depth Chart

LT	Yr.	LG	Yr.	C	Yr.	RG	Yr.	RT	Yr.
Jake Long	Jr.*	Adam Kraus	Jr.*	Mark Bihl	Sr.*	Alex Mitchell	So.*	Rueben Riley	Sr.*
Mark Ortmann	Fr.*	Jeremy Ciulla	So.*	Justin Boren	Fr.	Justin Schifano	Fr.*	Cory Zirbel	Fr.*
Tim MacAvoy	Fr.*	Dave Moosman	Fr	Grant DeBenedictis	Fr.*	Brett Gallimore	So.*	Steve Schilling	Fr.

(note: every Michigan lineman since the beginning of time has redshirted. Just assume "redshirt" in front of all years unless "true" is specifically appended.)

There is an exceptional amount of panicking going on about a Michigan line that will probably play four upperclassmen with starting experience, and with good reason. Jake Long and Adam Kraus have switched positions. Mark Bihl has been given the opportunity to start at center the past two years but was yanked both times. Rueben Riley did a terrifying impression of Courtney Morgan when forced to play right tackle last year. The frightening condition that held Mike Kolodziej out most of last year has apparently relapsed and ended his career.

Great things were expected of left tackle Jake Long, then on the right side of the line, going into his sophomore season after a standout freshman campaign, but when Gabe Watson falls on your ankle it tends to put a damper on your season. Long was thought to be out for the year but rehabbed like a madman, returning for the Iowa game. He performed adequately but not thrillingly the remainder of the year, still affected by the gimpy ankle. This year he switches to Henne's blindside. Fully healthy, he should be the line's best player and an All Big Ten performer.

Junior Adam Kraus was the lone bright spot in the interior of last year's line. Once Mark Bihl proved unable to lock down the center position, Kraus came off the bench and performed admirably for a first-year starter, showing good mobility in Michigan's screen game and competent blocking elsewhere. Practice buzz holds that Kraus has taken a notable step forward from last year's competency; he should be a major upgrade over the game but nigh-crippled Leo Henige.

Senior Mark Bihl is going to begin the year as Michigan's starting center, but the last two years he's lost his role during the first couple games of the season. Confidence is not running at an all time high. Though true freshman Justin Boren is listed second on the above depth chart, if Bihl is found wanting Michigan will move Adam Kraus over to center and someone -- probably sophomore Jeremy Cuilla -- will draw in at guard.

Alex Mitchell is the least experienced member of the line. A redshirt sophomore, he saw sporadic time last year in blowouts and when the injuries on the line were at their deepest, but not enough to draw any conclusions about his play. Last year he was the subject of a fair amount of practice buzz as clearly the top player in his line class. In spring, however, he struggled to keep his weight down. Despite that he's drawn praise from the coaches, who insist he's earned his starting role.

Rueben Riley will be the focal point of concern for most Michigan fans after an up and down 2004. Once Long and Kolodziej went down Riley, then at guard, was thrust into the spotlight at right tackle despite having acquired two broken thumbs in mysterious circumstances. (Seriously: how does one break both thumbs? And how in the hell did Michigan end up starting not one but two players, Chris Graham being the other, with a pair of broken thumbs? What are the odds?) He struggled, allowing an EMU defensive end with a defiantly French-Canadian last name to crush the quarterback several times during Michigan's walkover of the Eagles and getting dominated by Minnesota freshman Steve Davis. Phasers were set on "panic" when Tamba Hali rolled into town, but Riley did all right against him. Not great, but all right. Riley was sent to the bench when Riley returned.

Past the starters there is a vast sea of inexperience. For the first time in recent history, Michigan is preparing to play two true freshmen on the offensive line. Both C/G Justin Boren and RT Steve Schilling have been mentioned by Carr as definite contributors. To me that sends a clear signal: they have more potential than anyone else on the line and are being groomed for '07. If they play extensively this year Michigan is going to be in trouble -- particularly if it's Schilling, who never pass-blocked in high school.

If Michigan is forced to make a switch this year Mark Ortmann and Jeremy Ciulla will probably be the first options off the bench at tackle and guard, respectively.

How good will this line be? The "3" above is fairly tenuous. Long and Kraus appear to be a solid duo on the left, but Bihl-Mitchell-Riley is scary. Riley has been practicing at tackle for a while now, has more experience and (presumably) two healthy thumbs and thus is unlikely to be a liability Michigan has to structure its offense around mitigating, but he is a guard playing out of position. That will be fine in the run game -- Riley is an excellent drive blocker -- but expect to see at least a few drives end when opposing speed rushers rip around Riley and implant their helmets into Henne's chest. People around the program are making all the right noises about Mitchell, but as a sophomore and first year starter it could be rough for him at the beginning. I'll believe Bihl can stick as a starter when I see it.

Five Questions and Five Answers

Which Henne is it, then?

Not the guy from the Wisconsin game but unfortunately not the guy from the OSU game, either. Henne's accuracy will trouble me until he proves me drastically wrong. He made a lot of mental errors a year ago; those should gradually subside as he becomes more and more experienced. The tendency to hurl the ball to Tacopants, Jason Avant's imaginary 11-foot tall friend, will not be resolved with the simple passage of time. Henne's accuracy waxed and waned last season -- a debacle like the UW game stands in marked contrast to the MSU or OSU games. What that says to me is that Loeffler spent last season trying to adjust Henne's mechanics on a regular basis. The adjustment would stick for a while, but when Henne was pressured or busy trying to find a receiver his bad habits would re-emerge.

If Loeffler can hammer correct mechanics into his head over the offseason -- if that OSU game was an indicator of the future -- the sky's the limit. But in my opinion, Henne will be slightly more accurate, slightly more intelligent, and slightly disappointing. It'll look like he's doing much better because the rest of the offense should improve and we'll get a ton of articles ripping on Michigan fans that speciously cite last year's stats, but in reality his improvement will be more incremental than revolutionary.

How will the offensive line hold up?

Okay? Riley at tackle is only a concern in the passing game, really. As a run-blocking unit Michigan should improve drastically with Long around and the Lentz-Henige duo gone. Bihl is iffy, but my coachspeak spidey-sense (admittedly largely baseless) says Mitchell will be capable. Hart and a more experienced Grady should be better in blitz pickups.

Michigan has a clear weakness -- Riley's pass blocking -- and a couple question marks that make it improbable that Michigan has a great line, but a line as deficient as last year's is equally improbable.

How much will the offense change?

The hot rumor around the Internets is that Michigan will be incorporating a lot of zone blocking into their running game. For those unfamiliar with the idea, think Iowa when they featured Fred Russel. I find this terribly exciting:

• Mike Hart is the perfect back for it. His outstanding vision and I-scoff-at-your-dimes cutting ability seem custom-molded to slash upfield at the tiniest hole.
• The dreaded fullback shuffle is gone, and with it goes most of Michigan's predictability. You can't anticipate where the hole is going to be when there is no designated hole.
• And hell the fullback may just be plain gone anyway. Minus Dudley, last year's fullback spot was manned by a motley crew of confused squat guys more likely to whiff entirely than crush a linebacker into a white-hot furrow of snapped limbs and smoke. Those guys return to the delight of few; each play they get is one less for someone like Arrington, Breaston, or new hotness Carson Butler. If Iowa's zone game is any indication fullbacks could be few and far between, opening up more time for second tight ends and third wideouts.

The gotcha is the offensive line, all of whom have been schooled in traditional man-blocking for the past three or four years. One offseason to drop weight and pick up an entirely different scheme is one or two too few for true comfort. Still, my favorite running play for Hart to run is the draw -- which Michigan deployed to shocking effect against PSU -- as it allows holes to open up and Hart to find them, and a running game that emphasizes all of Hart's positives but doesn't fall prey to steadily diminishing returns if overused is a hell of an idea.

Of course, Michigan fans have heard about shocking changes every preseason since 1998 and have seen very little on the field. Is this legit? On the one hand, there's a ton of message-board smoke and circumstantial evidence (in the form of newly svelte offensive linemen); on the other, the coaches have been strenuously disavowing the major changes which Michigan has been historically loathe to make. Also, Mike Hart and Lloyd Carr are talking up senior fullback Obi Oluigbo.

Survey says... a little bit country, a little bit rock and roll. One thing Michigan coaches will not stand is a ninth place running game and they're more likely to make the changes required to fix that deficiency than one anywhere else on the team. The fullback will feature, though, and he may even shuffle some. Sorry.

How much can we expect from Breaston?

It depends entirely on his health. I still BELIEVE(!) in his ability. You'd have to be blind not to, but anyone who BELIEVES(!) in his ability to not have six nagging injuries by week two is also a little bit fuzzy. If healthy he'll return kicks and be tackled by unblocked gunners on punts, catch a bunch of passes and screens which he turns into five or six more yards than he has any right to, and enjoy a couple of long reverses. But the bulk of Avant's catches will be distributed to Ecker, Manningham, and Arrington, IMO, and Breaston will remain a complementary weapon.

And adding it all up, you get...?

Last year's Michigan offense was the Michigan team writ small. They were slightly below average in everything and had a tendency to kill drives collectively. An offensive lineman would whiff a block. Henne would throw an inaccurate pass. A wide receiver would drop the conversion attempt on third and long, or catch it five yards short of the first down line. Presto, Ross Ryan. A drive was the equivalent of playing ten really close games with no margin for error: you were bound to screw up sooner or later and then it was over.

The good news is that the only position group that could possibly be worse is the wide receivers, but even there Jason Avant is replaceable in a way that Braylon Edwards wasn't. With everyone else returning and a potentially healthy Breaston, even the WRs figure to improve. The offensive line may not shine but it figures to move towards the median.

So even though the only position group that will be drastically improved is the running backs, if everyone is a little better the offense as a whole could be way better than last year, though you should take into account my opinion that last year's offense was way worse than the general populace does. This year's preview will not feature bold predictions of a top-10 finish or fate-tempting assertions that Michigan is nigh-invulnerable to injury. A year of being completely and utterly wrong tends to mellow one's prognosticory zeal. But...

Even if the changes in the running game are more subtle than drastic Michigan should improve significantly from their 9th place performance in conference. Reasons one through around 300 are Mike Hart. Past that there is the departure of the two guards and a projected improvement from virtually anyone, the return of a fully healthy Jake Long, a year of experience for the fullbacks, and an offseason of freaking out by Carr and company. The loss of Jason Avant's superb downfield blocking and the replacement of Tim Massaquoi with one of two probably-dodgy blockers at the second tight end spot will serve as minor drags.

The passing game will also be better. Henne will be under less pressure, more intelligent, and more accurate. Manningham will get ridiculous at people. It still won't be great.

Stupid Predictions

• Manningham is the leading receiver. Arrington, Breaston, and Ecker are in a dead heat for second.
• Breaston has three return touchdowns.
• I Heart Hart t-shirts are hot sellers by the ND game.
• Bihl is replaced early on; Boren moves into the starting lineup by the end of the season.
• Michigan is 26th in total offense.
• Michigan fans huddle in January, hash it out, and decide to give the unit a B+ grade when all is said and done.

Part II: the defense, beckons.

Some Firsthand Info On Horn

Jeremy Luchau, one of the moderators at CVHSPreps.com, was kind enough to answer a few questions on new Michigan commitment Avery Horn:

What are his particular strengths and weaknesses?

Avery is a quick (4.4, 4.5 range) and is pretty strong, too. Great breakaway
type back and has the ability to run defenders over. Not really shifty and
not a slashing type back. He has the speed for it, but prefers the straight
ahead style. I once saw him on a KOR break tackles up the sideline, speed by
the rest of the coverage and turn and back pedal the last 20-30 yards or so.
It was pretty amazing.

Are there any D-I or NFL backs that you can compare his running style
to?

I would say he fits into the Denver RB mold, much like [Terrell] Davis.

Is there some potential for him to play defensive backfield or return
kicks?

He hasn't played much defense in high school. But he is a threat on KOR, the
best that I've seen. I want to say he returned four for a TD last year and
two or three from his soph season.

Thanks again to Jeremy and CVHSPreps.com.

Shirt Updates

"Worst State Ever" comes in a few additional flavors. There's a blue and white shirt for PSU fans, a maize shirt for those wishing to fit in with the Maize Out, and a special edition for those who really wish to flash their Internet bonafides:



Women's shirts were requested, but the only color available even close to yellow is something called "banana". Close enough? If there's interest I'll whip some up.

Also: today is the last day of the 15% Summer Sale. Just enter "SUMMERSALE06" in the coupon code area when you check out.

LOL, n00b

So it seems I've been hired by AOL to be the Big Ten's lead blogger for what will no doubt be the best website in the entire universe: The Fanhouse. This will necessitate some changes around these parts, but fear not. MGoBlog will soldier on. Worried? The Fanhouse is looking for short, digestible posts from 100-400 words. Does that describe anything on this blog? Not really. Unless they get a table fetish or a strange desire for 3,000 words on Purdue's season, all the stuff you love to skim over and largely ignore is staying right here, baby.

Making the move to AOL:

• Portions of Unverified Voracity. The links therein will be posted individually, as the AOL blog is going to be an uberblog you can filter by tags, so posting something about an injury to a Wisconsin player should be filed under "Wisconsin" instead of "Wisconsin / Angry Ravings Against ESPN / Stat Wonkery." Those bits of UV that aren't directly relevant to the AOL blog will appear here, also individually. I'll miss the name but look forward to posting stuff in more timely fashion.
  
• Any pressing news like injuries or commitments. Longer Googlestalking commit posts will appear here first.
  
• Fun YouTube stuff. The AOL blog is encouraging multimedia.
  

Staying are most things that are horrendously long, not directly relevant, or esoteric:

• UFR.
• Further excursions into stat-wonkery.
• The 3,000 word team previews.
• Basketball & hockey coverage.
• Calls for the head of Stephen A. Smith and his ilk.

Also, this marks a transition point. Selling out is going to occur. A few months ago my job and I agreed to not have each other any more, partially due to the fact that instead of doing "things" I was "supposed to be doing" I was "posting on my blog." In the subsequent months I've come to two conclusions:

• I like blogging.
• I don't like engineering.

So we're going to try this for funding. Some of it will come from AOL. The rest I hope can be provided by merchandising (buy a shirt!), affiliate program-ing, generous readers, and unobtrusive text link ads on the sidebar. I won't be adding any flashing invitations to punch the monkey, literally or metaphorically. If it works, it works and I'm terribly happy. If it doesn't I'll cut my hair and become an accountant or something. We'll give it a year or so and then evaluate it.

Practical Applications for You, The Reader: The NCAA Fanhouse is still a week or two away from launching and is in a weird limbo state where I can and should post to it but there's no Wolverine-specific area. There is a me-specific area that you can bookmark/subscribe to, though in the future it might contain the odd post on other teams that I'm picking up the slack on. This you might possibly survive.

My first post @ the Fanhouse is on the terribly interesting depth chart released today.

Avery Horn to Michigan

Also an accomplished fifth-grade artist.

California running back Avery Horn committed over the weekend, choosing Michigan over a wide array of mid-level Pac-10 teams:

Hanford, Calif., Hanford High School running back Avery Horn had early offers from Fresno State and Nebraska, and with his latest offer from Washington now stands at seven. In between, Michigan, Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State all threw their respective hats into the ring.

Scout and Rivals both have him as a middle-of-the-road three star recruit. ESPN gives him a 78, though their scouting report($) on him is amazingly positive for a recruit they essentially said "meh" about:

He runs much bigger than his size would lead you to believe. Shows an aggressive style and runs with authority. Hits the hole with great burst and is capable of sneaking through tiny creases. Has good lower-body strength, hits the hole quickly and is a surprising between-the-tackles runner who excels at picking up yards after contact. Runs with good balance, flashes a powerful stiff arm and bounces off arm tackles.

It continues like this for a while longer before some minor concerns about size (he's 5'10", 180-ish) and cut fluidity are expressed. Maybe I'm wrong on the "meh," since on second thought 79s are at the tail end of the ESPN 150. I guess a 78 translates to a mid-four star ranking on Scout or Rivals.

Scout has a couple of quotes:

"He's got burst speed. He can really accelerate. He's a track man and ran a 10.5 (100m) twice last week."

That's his coach. Further:

Avery had a great season last year. He scored 24 touchdowns coming on rushing, punt returns and kick returns. Most of them are long runs and he is really jogging in the last 10 yards. He just has so much acceleration. He had 1,800+ yards rushing last year."

"He had one kick return last year that was over his head, caught it about an inch off of the goal line, and ran it back. That was a 99+ yard run back. That was a school record."

Central Valley messageboard CVHSPreps.com has slightly less outlandish numbers:

Horn rushing = 168-1345 (8.0) 19 touchdowns
Horn receiving = 7-157 (22.4) 1 touchdown
Horn passing = 0-2-0-0
Horn KOR = Four touchdowns

He started slow and didn't have a 100-yard game until the league opener against Redwood where he ran for 209 yards on 21 carries and scored three touchdowns including a 75 KOR. His other big game was at Lemoore when he tallied 202 yards on 24 carries.

Another poster echoes the speed theme from earlier:

Horn is similar in that he has something you cant teach... SPEED! Avery can flat fly and is one of the fastest in the state, which is what has improved his stock. The football camps and track meets in the off season have helped him more than his rushing stats. I would say right now he is being recruited as an athlete, because of his 100 times. Again, size and speed are the two things you cant teach, and with speed like Horn has, he could play several positions besides RB at the D1 level.

And, finally, a probably-irrelevant-but-fun story:

I wouldn't consider this guy the biggest hitter this year because he didn't really have the opportunity to hit that many people...but he laid down probably the biggest hit I saw this year....Avery Horn got to see some action at safety against Lemoore and absolutely blasted Lemoore's TE. The kids helmet busted off his head...a few pads inside ended up on the field...and the kid was bleeding from his face...don't remember him returning....last I saw he was sitting on the bench with a towel over his head....remember that one J??? He also had his fair share of punishing hits on tacklers when he was running the ball...the kid is built

Editorial Opinion: Horn's commitment might be disappointing for those holding out hope for Robert Hughes or John Clay, but neither of those players is likely to end up at Michigan and in Clay's case it's debateable how heavily Michigan pursued him in the first place. Those disheartened by the lack of a fourth star next to Horn's name on various recruiting websites should take heart in his relatively early offer -- he's had one for at least a couple months -- and decent offer list. Also, the main question about his future has to do more with his size than anything else, and all of a sudden I want Michigan running backs to be slightly larger than protons. Hmmm... wonder why?

Still, it's a comedown from the projected 1-2 OMG shirtless punch of Clay and Hughes when this recruiting year was fresh and therefore destined to be Teh Best Evah. Michigan might take one more wide reciever, but other than that is done with offensive skill position talent and has one guy who is unquestionably the man (Ryan Mallet). Maybe Hemingway if you believe ESPN over Scout and Rivals. That's a little disappointing. It does help that there's good reason to believe players like Helmuth, Webb, and Horn are underrated because they're small or under the radar or fullbacks. Won't somebody think of the fullbacks?

Hotseat Watch

Probably an short-lived feature as the words "Lloyd Carr" and "hotseat" become inextricably intertwined over the next few weeks. First, Terry Hutchens of the Indianapolis Star:

1. Lloyd Carr, Michigan: Three or more losses in a season is unacceptable at Michigan, and that has happened to Carr in seven of the past eight seasons. Last year's 7-5 record, and a 1-4 career mark against Ohio State's Jim Tressel put Carr firmly on this list.

Exactly how unacceptable can three losses be if Carr is still around?

And this is just a bunch of Iowa students and thus shouldn't be taken particularly seriously:

A national title and five Big Ten championships would put a college football coach up for sainthood on most campuses.

In Ann Arbor, fans yawn at those accomplishments and scream for more.

After 12 seasons at the helm, Lloyd Carr's seat as head coach is hotter than a race track after Ricky Bobby shakes and bakes on it.

I always suspected that sports journalists had a requirement along the lines of "Lame Pop Culture References 101." Now we have proof.

Unverified Voracity: OL Ees Better Edition

Kolodziej weird-condition-type thing is AOK? Apparently:

"They were just checking up, everything's good," he said. "It wasn't much of a situation. I'm good to go."

Whether or not he'll play is a murkier issue, given Carr's previous statements on the offensive line that claim Alex Mitchell has worked his way into the starting lineup. If Bihl fails to impress once again, Michigan now has the option of sliding Riley back inside to guard and Kolo could draw in at RT, but he probably isn't going to be the first option at season's start.

Justin Boren's injury is progressing well and he should be ready to play in a week or two. This is relevant, since Carr said he'll play on the season preview edition of Michigan Replay. (Also mentioned as freshman contributors: WR Greg Mathews, RBs Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor (grumble grumble), DE Brandon Graham, and S Steve Brown.)

DE/OLB Chris McLaurin, a redshirt freshman, has moved to tight end after shoulder surgery:

Redshirt freshman Chris McLaurin, who underwent shoulder surgeries last spring, has moved from linebacker to tight end. He said coaches felt tight end would be better for his shoulders and knew he had played the position at Orchard Lake St. Mary's.

That's either a weak excuse or an ill omen for McLaurin's future.

(Note that this is the Free Press's Mark Snyder again breaking news.)

Pat Forde does not read MGoBlog. Lloyd Carr features in a really long article with this as its premise:

Used to be, a national title was the ultimate employment security blanket -- a veritable lifetime contract extension. These days, it might not even buy you a decade.

Despite backing this claim up with no data, he raises the stakes later, implying that it's do-or-die for the four coaches (Carr, Larry Coker, Phil Fulmer, and UK basketball coach Tubby Smith):

Now the wait is over, and prove-it time has arrived for the four embattled champions.

Too bad Forde didn't see this article, which features direct quotes from Bill Martin and Bo that directly contradict his thesis:

"Anybody that wants to get rid of him has to get rid of me first," Martin said. "He's not on the hot seat with me." That could be arranged at a lot of locales. But getting rid of Carr and Martin would mean taking on Bo Schembechler -- and that still seems like a scary proposition, even in Bo's near-dotage.

"There isn't one [critic] out there with guts enough to come up to me and say we need to change coaches," said Schembechler, who hired Carr decades ago. "I know there's some of that talk out there, but they don't tell me.

"The guy is quite a guy, so I don't mind standing in front of him. I'm not going to let those people do that to him, and I still do have some influence with some people up here. So he'll quit when he wants to."

Wait a minute... that's the same article. Pat Forde doesn't even read Pat Forde!

Elsewhere in Irritating-Carr-Hotseat stories, Dennis Dodd plays stopped clock by, oh, I dunno, listening to what the athletic department says and declaring Carr's job safe. Es miraculoso!

Seriously maladjusted recruitniks should start monitoring Jim__S's new blog; if that doesn't include you worry not. I've got it covered.

Etc.: Article on the WRs from the Grand Rapids Press; extensive profile of Leon Hall from a paper local to his California roots.

One Million Hits (Probably)

Someone today is going to be MGoBlog's millionth hit unless a statistical improbability strikes. I cannot be there in person for said millionth hit because I am attending a wedding (fear not, ladies, it is not that of MGoBlog; shrine destruction is not advised). To that person: congratulations! Thanks.

To all other visitors: plain old thanks. The reason words keep appearing in this space is because people continue reading them. I've never subscribed to the rock-band "f the consumers" approach: the reason I do this is because people seem to like it. Everyone who has stopped by and decided it was worth returning: thanks. Those who have left comments or sent emails: double thanks. For those fans of opposing teams who have weathered snarky, unfavorable projections in stride: triple thanks. This enterprise has been more rewarding than I could have ever guessed.

Changes are a comin' to this space but they're made in the hope that this thing can become something of a profession. Perhaps this is a foolish goal but damn if it doesn't sound romantic, at least to me. We -- and I do mean "we" -- are going to give this a go. As anyone who saw "Michigan" placed in the tossup category of the OSU preview knows, I'm something of a romantic and I hope that this is but the beginning.

Second star to the right and straight on 'till morning. Go Blue.

Unverified Voracity: Literally Shirtless Edition

Now starting at WR for Wisconsin: not Marcus Randel-El. He's injured and out for the season. Also hitting the injury trail is projected NU starting QB CJ Bacher. Mike Kafka has been named starter for the opener.

(via Maize N Brew)

Mysterious hand signs can be found at The Realests. Braylon Edwards and Mike Hart are both seen flashing this mysterious symbol:



(If Braylon isn't wearing a pink shirt he wears NO SHIRT.)

What does it mean? I don't know. If it was four fingers then one, they'd obviously be flashing Zoltan Mesko's jersey number. But four plus two? It is the mystery.

Etc.: article on this volunteer staffer from CMU; UF is doing research on college football fandom and you could be a guinea pig; Hey Jenny Slater creates the greatest post ever.

Ohio State: National Chumpions! ZING!

blah blah blah hate Ohio State blah blah would like to see campus ejected into space blah blah can't possibly be worth reading due to extreme bias etc

The Story

Imagine a different world: Franklin County terrorists steal a nuke-u-lar weapon and threaten to deploy it unless Ohio State is permitted a rematch with Texas for possession of that purty glass football. You find yourself held hostage by these same terrorists (full of vim and vigor, these guys); they hold a gun to your head and say they will pull the trigger unless you correctly prognosticate the winner of the game. Who do you pick? Isn't this a hard question? (Leaving aside the fact they're liable to shoot you if you say "Texas.")

So I guess it's somewhat logical that when Texas loses that Vince Young guy and OSU returns that Troy Smith guy you put OSU #1 to start the season, but, uh... nine defensive starters, one reliable kicker, and two first round draft picks on offense depart and that doesn't bother anyone? Ohio State -- Ohio freakin' State -- is starting a senior walk-on who has never played a down on defense at cornerback and this raises not an eyebrow? Okay then. I have a hunch that assumptions were made: the secondary will reload. The pass rush will continue. The linebackers will be equally fierce. Ted Ginn can be a primary threat as a receiver.

But I digress. If the media was replaced with a parallel-universe version of itself that senselessly overrated the defensive side of the ball and placed great emphasis on special teams and place OSU 15th or something this intro section would be all "but wait: Marcus Freeman, a mess of five defensive ends from which someone good will emerge, and a longstanding tradition of excellence on D." The Buckeyes have many alluring qualities that nearly offset that walkon-at-corner thing.

But not quite.

Offense

Last Year: Very good with the standard caveat about awful Big Ten defenses. Troy Smith threw, Antonio Pittman ran, and various persons caught.

Quarterback

Rating: 5.

Troy Smith can run past bad defense.

Troy "Virginia Slims" Smith has come a long way, baby. Entering the 2005 season he was one supernova against Michigan away from being Bellisari II. After it Maurice Clarett's then-outlandish claim that Smith was "the next Michael Vick" stands out as the one thing in Clarett's life impossible to mock.

But we're gonna try anyway. Smith had an odd set of opponents last year that were much like Asian women: they were either very, very good or very, very bad and there was no middle ground whatsoever. (Okay, that's not entirely true. Both Michigan and a girl in DC named Kelly are exceptions.) Against the bad defenses, Smith killed. Against the good ones he was killed. So what, exactly, does it mean? Smith did what almost any quarterback would have done against all those defenses. What we can extrapolate: when given time and space Smith is an accurate passer. He's got great mobility and uses it to scramble for both yards and time. When he was confronted by defenses with good, aggressive secondaries, however, he struggles. Against Texas and Penn State he was a nonfactor, averaging only 109 yards passing per game. The only other half-legitimate defense they played was Michigan, who Smith smashed for 300 yards on 27-37 passing. One thing the Wolverine secondary was not was "aggressive," though.

There is some potential for disappointment here, but even if Smith is not the quarterback his '05 numbers imply he might be this year just due to natural improvement. Teams that aren't able to get pressure from the front four will be faced with a nasty choice between sitting back, allowing Smith to pick the defense apart, and blitzing, opening up the possibility of long scrambles or single-covered Ginn.

Running Backs

Rating: 3.

Antonio Pittman can run away from bad defense.

Right: not impressed by Antonio Pittman, much to the amusement of Ohio State fans. It's hard to judge his '05 season because there wasn't much data to be had against good run defenses. It appeared to me that he was good at running through big holes and falling down when contacted but struggled to make extra yards. He's not terrible, but I don't think he's anything that, say, Jason Teague wasn't. Ohio State fans fresh off the Mo Hall era may be confusing competence for superstardom. But that's just me.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if Pittman's job came under serious threat at some point during the year. Recruit Chris Wells was the #1 running back in the country according to everyone. He is strong like bull at 6'1" and 220 pounds and may be the second coming of Eddie George if he lives up to the hype. Running back is a position in which a player can come straight out of high school and make an impact (see: Mike Hart, Tyrell Sutton, Javon Ringer, etc). Wells has an impressive package of size and speed; once he gets the blitz pickups down and gets used to the increased speed of the college game he'll at least contribute. Starting is another matter. Tressel doesn't seem like the type to yank a player proven functional for a freshman, no matter how hype-laden he is, unless he finds himself in a situation where the team is drastically underperforming expectations.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Rating: 4.

Whoops.

Santonio Holmes takes his dapper dreads to the NFL, leaving behind Roy Hall, Anthony Gonzalez, and some guy named... uh... Ginn. Ginn was a disappointment a year ago until the moment Notre Dame decided that covering him on fly routes was optional. He managed to collect 800-some yards receiving but cracked 100 only against the Irish and Illinois; his good game against Michigan (9 catches and 89 yards, though about half of that was screens) was marred by a series of muffed punts that gave whole swaths of field away. What happened? Ginn hasn't developed into a receiver. His hands aren't great. Neither are his routes. (His Fiesta Bowl touchdown consisted of him running down the field real fast.) He just wasn't very useful against defenses that crowded him and threatened Troy Smith with pressure before he could run 50 yards downfield.

That figures to change. Quotes from Gonzalez to the effect of "Ted Ginn is the most improved player in practice" are odd and therefore likely true. His route cuts are doomed to be less explosive than one would expect -- his long, lanky body and similarly long-striding running style make it relatively easy to predict his direction* -- but that speed thing means you close your cushion at great peril. He's still not likely to end up with 80 catches unless OSU goes WR-screen mad, but he alternate between safety-paralyzing decoy and guy who catches long touchdowns.

Gonzalez, a solid route runner with excellent hands and a knack for finding the soft spot in zones, is the one who will his production shoot up with Holmes gone. He's no Ginn but don't let his lack of skin pigmentation fool you: the guy can run. Past the starters there's not much. Roy Hall hasn't proven anything in four years; backups Brian Robiske and Brian Hartline are green players who did not get much guru hype as recruits.

The projected starter at tight end, Marcel Frost, was suspended for the year after an unspecified violation of team rules and transferred to a I-AA (sorry: "Championship Division") school. Redshirt sophomore Rory Nichol returns from an injury that held him out last year to fill the starting spot.

*(Ack! Punts and kickoff returns, you say? There's a difference between a your typical return cut, usually slight-but-violent changes of direction designed to maintain momentum, and route cuts, which are often wholesale changes of direction. FTR, I also think this negatively impacts Steve Breaston's routes since he has the same long-striding style.)

Offensive Line

Rating: 5. Sophomore left tackle Alex Boone is no longer drinking the GDP of Sri Lanka every weekend, so OSU has that going for them. Incidentally, he was uber-hyped as a recruit and not terrible as a true freshman. He's on a track to stardom. OSU hopes he's ready to play left tackle just two years out of high school. As a freshman, right tackle Kirk Barton impressively won the job from Datish and Schafer midway through the year. Last year he resumed his duties there until suffering an injury versus Penn State.

Assuming Tim Schaefer wins the left guard job, the interior of the line is all seniors. Center Doug Datish was a tackle last year (OSU edumacation: "has played and started all three interior line positions for the Buckeyes, including all 12 games last year at left tackle") and a guard the year before that. Right guard TJ Downing was functional a year ago.

Mangold's loss will be felt -- first round centers are exceedingly rare and Datish isn't likely to fill those shoes completely, but the line should be good. Exactly how good depends on just how Boone performs is right away. No doubt he's on a stardom track, but his starts last year came after Barton's injury. His placement at left tackle at a true sophomore is either a very good thing or a very bad thing. Veterans everywhere else and another probable star at right tackle should reassure worried Buckeye fans. Not that there are any.

Defense

Last Year: Holy pants. Ohio State played a wide array of the country's best offenses and crushed all of them, finishing fifth overall largely because running against Ohio State was an exercise in futility: teams averaged a whopping 73 yards per game. I do not wish to think about this any longer.

Defensive Line

Rating: 4. Hey! Returning starters! Meet Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson, defensive tackles who featured on the aforementioned swarming defense. Datish describes Pitcock with the best quote I've seen in a long time:

"I've hated blocking Quinn since I got here," Datish said. "He's like a goat. I think his legs should be reversed because he’s got that weird leverage thing to them. I don't know if there’s anybody better in the country."

He's not much of a penetrator but he occupies blockers with the best of them. Patterson's numbers -- 7.5 TFLs and 4 sacks -- look good for a DT, but he played end last year. Three of those sacks came in the Michigan State game, when Stephon Wheeler went out and the Red Sea caved in on Drew Stanton. (On the fourth he bowled over Jake Long to sack Henne.) His move inside makes sense since he was oversized -- 285 pounds -- and not a threat to come around the edge at end. Inside he can use his push and technique to get into the backfield as others take the edge. He's sort of a poor man's Alan Branch.

The questions on defense begin with defensive end. Senior Jay Richardson has some experience on one side, starting 6 games as a sophomore before an injury forced him out of the starting lineup. He saw time in a rotation last year, but didn't do much with it: he has three sacks in his career. At this point he's a Buckeye version of Rondell Biggs, a hard worker and run stuffer who brings little playmaking to the field. The pass rush will have to come from elsewhere, probably Cass Tech alum Vernon Gholston. In '04 Gholston was a sleeper recruit described as incredibly athletic (I've seen this picture way too often -- some creepy guy at BuckeyePlanet used it as his sig) but equally raw. Two years later he's apparently progressed better than Alain Kashama did and fought his way into the starting lineup ahead of a couple highly touted recruits. OSU's proven that they can mold defensive linemen; with Gholston's evident natural ability he'll probably be good sooner or later.

Backing up the defensive ends are a trio of highly touted prospects: Lawrence Wilson, Robert Rose, and Doug Worthington. Wilson and Worthington are kind of bulky and have a redshirt year; at this point Rose is all edge-rushing terror that many need a year or two to reacclimate to college. All will see time as Ohio State tries to find the right combination.

This will be a good defensive line. Pitcock and Patterson will clog the middle ably, though neither has shown much of an inclination to penetrate and disrupt. A situational pass rusher will emerge from the defensive ends. Pressure on early downs may be an issue if Gholston does not live up to his practice buzz. OSU may have to blitz a lot on non-obvious passing downs lest their secondary get exposed.

Linebackers

Rating: 3. Hawk, Carpenter, and Schlegel are gone. Hurray! In their place are a highly touted recruit, a player who led his team in tackles as a freshman, and the son of Road Warrior Animal. Boo.

Strongside linebacker Marcus Freeman is the highly touted recruit. Rivals ranked him the #31 player in the country in '04; for comparison, the man Michigan fans believe to be a cross between Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas, Tim Jamison, was #40. After a freshman year spent mostly on special teams he suffered a knee injury in OSU's opener and redshirted. I find it hard to believe that he "went into the season as a possible starter," as his official OSU bio claims, but everyone around the program is excited about him.

New weakside linebacker John Kerr is the former leading tackler. The catch is that Kerr's tackles came at Indiana, where he started at MLB as a freshman and racked up 114. He spent a full two years on the bench after his transfer, one mandated by the NCAA but the other due to "problems with transfer-related paperwork" according to the Columbus Dispatch, which may also be interested in this fantastic bridge I have to sell. Whatever happened, it's over now. Kerr spent last year on special teams, working his way up the depth chart. No one's seen him play linebacker since he was tackling away at Indiana.

How was work, Dad?
I bludgeoned someone with a chair.

The son of Road Warrior Animal is James Laurinatis, who you may remember from the Ohio State game last year. He entered on the second play of the game after Bobby Carpenter suffered a broken leg. After the linebacker shakeup he finds himself in the middle. He originally committed to Minnesota before switching to OSU. He wasn't a huge recruit -- three stars from both services -- and was low on the priority list of most schools, though he got December offers from UCLA and Notre Dame. Yes, yes: AJ Hawk three stars gurus useless San Dimas High Scool fooball rules. But in his two starts a year ago he got one tackle, that on Tyler Ecker's futile sojourn upfield with seconds remaining. He's a true sophomore; he won't be that good.

There's going to be a dropoff here or I'm taking my blog and going home. Freeman should be at least good, though he may be playing out of position due to shortcomings in the other two linebackers. Dispatch blogger Heath Schneider theorizes that the LB switch means Kerr is doomed and true freshman Ross Homan will end up starting once his hamstring injury is healed. Buckeye fans are salivating over Homan but the gurus were pretty meh about him and as a true freshman recovering from an injury if he starts it's a bad sign for this year.

Laurinatis obviously shows a lot of potential to start in front of highly touted JUCO recruit Larry Grant, but he's not AJ Hawk. If he is I'll cry. Kerr... who knows? I have my doubts about him. I think Grant's recruitment -- JUCOs are unusual at OSU -- speaks to question marks about the depth, especially outside, and there's a fair chance that this unit ends up disappointing. Freeman and the rep Tressel and OSU have earned keep this at a three, but it's not all roses and reloading here.

Defensive Backs

Rating: 2.

I can hear Corso now.

The early departures of Ashton Youbouty and Donte Whitner will be felt keenly. True sophomore Malcolm Jenkins "wants to be in contention for the Thorpe Award this year because it means he will be helping the Buckeyes win," which is nice but fanciful. He was a meh recruit two years ago thrust into action as the Buckeyes nickelback due to a severe lack of depth in the defensive backfield. His 37 tackles in limited time (three starts plus the aforementioned nickel duty) implies that he was picked on when he went into the game. That would be fine if he had fought back a bit, but two pass breakups and no interceptions does not count as fighting back. He was invisible during the games I saw. That's to be expected for a middling recruit pressed into service as a freshman but it also indicates that Jenkins has a way to go to replace the services of Youbouty. He'll improve, but to improve enough to be an impact corner would be a major leap forward.

Opposite Jenkins is a former walk-on, senior Antonio Smith. He's got all of six tackles to his name, he's short, he's a mechanical engineer, and he played entirely on special teams last year despite tragically short Buckeye secondary depth: these are not indicators of success. Behind him are redshirt freshmen Andre Amos and Donald Washington who, being freshmen, have just as much experience as Smith. To call cornerback a question mark is something of an understatement. Cornerback is more like "?!?!?!"

The situation at safety is similar though not so dire. Jamario O'Neal is the sophomore in the role of Jenkins. Last year he saw time on special teams; now he is thrust into the starting lineup maybe a year too early. O'Neal was much better regarded by the gurus -- top 100 by both -- but is something of a corner-safety tweener. Further hilarity from the OSU athletic department: "was moved to safety during two-a-days to take advantage of his speed."

The other safety is being battled out between little-used senior Brandon Mitchell and sophomore Nick Patterson neither has exactly stepped up; what little I can find that's not a softbatch profile consists of a random blogger on TSN saying "neither really excites me much."

This unit has the makings of a liability. If OSU doesn't get a pass rush it risks having an average (or even worse? Naw) defense, especially when nickel and dime packages are forced onto the field.

Special Teams

Kickers & Coverage

Rating: 3. I swear to God that if this Ryan Pretorius or Aaron Pettry kid is another Nugent or Huston I am going to flip out and kill stuff. It's MGoBlog policy not to speculate on unproven kickers, but seriously: flip out and kill stuff. You have been warned.

Punter AJ Trapasso is pretty good. Ted Ginn like returning things a long way and fumbling punts, but only sometimes. He's your proverbial weapon.

Schedule

Non-Conference: Well, there's that trip to Texas you may have heard about. OSU also has a dangerous game against Northern Illinois and Garrett Wolfe to start the year. OSU should win, but NIU is liable to scare the hell out of them first. The other two games are against Bowling Green and Cincinatti.

Conference: OSU misses two probable bowl teams in Wisconsin and Purdue plus gets Michigan and Penn State at home. A trip to MSU could be dangerous; playing at Iowa after the Penn State deathmatch will be a major test.

We're Sure About

Well, very little, actually.

Troy Smith? Sure. I still have lingering doubts, but mostly because I have seizures when I try to remember his last two Michigan games.

We Have An Idea About

The secondary. A straight 1 to Purdue or Michigan State or Northwestern or whoever but bumped to a 2 simply on reputation... but OSU cannot be comfortable starting a walkon at corner and having him backed up by freshmen, especially when the other corner is a true sophomore.

The offensive line. Should be good, though a true sophomore at left tackle is a bit tetchy.

We Have No Clue About

Pass rush. Last year it came mostly from the linebackers, who often doubled as defensive ends on obvious passing downs. Those linebackers are gone and there's only one player on the line -- Gholston -- who looks like a consistent threat to the quarterback, and he's a redshirt sophomore with no experience at all.

Kicker. YOU WILL SUCK. YOU WILL MISS 25 YARD FIELD GOALS. THIS I COMMAND.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Best Case

Well... I think it's highly doubtful OSU gets through the season undefeated. But I must concede that it's possible. 12-0.

Worst Case

With five apparently guaranteed wins on the schedule and a few of the "probable" wins below pretty tenuous, it's extremely unlikely that OSU drops more than three games this year. Ginn, offensive line, and Smith should combine with the probably-decent defense for another good season. 8-4 is the minimum.

Final Verdict

Given the schedule the offense probably will be statistically explosive. Only four teams figure to have defenses that can even think of running with Ginn, Smith, et al. Given Tressel's tendency to play Lloydball in tight spots, though, the Bucks might not get all they might out of said really fast guys until the need to score is clear.

The defense is going to drop off significantly. This should not be a controversial statement when one of the most dominant Ds in recent college football memory loses nine starters and figures to start a secondary with almost no experience whatsoever. If Gholston does not produce, OSU is going to find itself exposing that secondary by blitzing or allowing itself to get picked apart. I find myself torn: it seems improbable that the OSU defense is going to be mediocre, but it seems equally improbable that patchwork secondary is going to be anything but.

Wins: Cincinnati, Bowling Green, Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern
Probable Wins: Northern Illinois, @ MSU, Minnesota (tenuous)
Tossups: @ Texas, Michigan, Penn State
Probable Losses: @ Iowa
No Chance: None

10-2, it says.

Slocum Limbos Closer To The Field

So Marques Slocum is around. On campus and stuff. There's a update on Rivals detailing his situation:

[er... whoops! The text here was deceptively premium. Suffice it to say that there's a headline on Rivals ("Slocum enrolls at Michigan") that is very specific.]

For those not intimately familiar with the bizarre saga of Marques Slocum, he was a near-five star defensive tackle recruit who commited to Michigan for the '05 class, but he did not qualify academically. He then spent a semester at Milford Academy attempting to get his grades and test scores up, then another when the first semester didn't take. He spent this summer taking and retaking standardized tests, never quite getting the score he needed. All hope appeared to be lost after his last score came back, but Slocum appealed on grounds that some of his answers weren't counted or didn't show up or were misgraded or something. It's all very vague. Now he's around, but with a catch.

I've never seen a recruit this tenaciously determined to go to school here. Anybody else would be in their second year at a JUCO or receiving a PhD from Michigan State by now. He's in. He's got to do well in Astro 111 and then he'll be given a winged helmet. I am available for tutoring sessions, Marques, and if provided with a nice Che-like vector graphic of your face will print "I WANT TO BELIEVE" T-shirts, except that's an NCAA violation so I won't.

Michigan Shoots Into Hemingway's Heart

Now that's a headline. Conway, SC wide receiver Junior Hemingway has committed to Michigan. Someone peal the church bells. Informative update coming.

Informative Update: Hemingway first popped up on Michigan recruitniks' radar during last year's summer camp. As a rising junior, he blew the doors off -- most observers said that, like Mallet, he was clearly the best player at his position there despite not being a senior -- and was rumored to be a candidate for a signing day commit. Obviously, that didn't happen, but Michigan will take him any time he wants to say "I do." Hemingway had 52 catches for 846 yards and 10 touchdowns his junior year.

Recruiting services are split on just how good Hemingway is. Rivals and Scout have him ranked around the tail end of their top 100s. On Scout he's the last receiver in; on Rivals he's the first receiver out. ESPN, though, loves him. He's the #17 player in their top 150 and sounds like a slower version of Braylon Edwards in their scouting report ($):

He is exceptional tracking the ball while in the air and possesses rare body control and the ability to make acrobatic catches. ... Shows the ability to consistently gain separation and is a huge threat on the fade and vertical routes. ... He can extend for the ball away from his body. This is the trait that separates him from others in this class. If the ball is near him, he will catch it.

Scout's evaluation is similar:

A downfield leaper, Hemingway may not be the fastest player on the field but he certainly stretches it with his ability to go up for the grab. Great hands, catches everything...

His coach confirms that as "tremendous" is to Lloyd Carr, "leaper" is to Junior Hemingway:

"[Hemingway] has great concentration, great hands, great leaping ability, got good speed and has a good frame," Jordan said. "He's a triple jumper with a great vertical."

Speed concerns could be overblown, as he won the Smokehouse award during his '05 camp trip and reported a 4.58 electronic 40 -- equivalent to a 3.5 hand-timed or something.

WR recruiting is no longer an issue, though Michigan will continue to pursue Toney Clemons and a couple of Californians.

Swystun Leaves Hockey Team

It wouldn't be Michigan hockey without a mid-August departure.

Rivals is reporting that sophomore Tyler Swystun has left to join a WHL team. Michigan is not devastated if Mel Pearson's quote is any indication:

"I don’t think he was ready for the strength and the speed of the college game, but we were counting on him for an improved year," assistant coach Mel Pearson said.

Improved but still on the fourth line. Swystun was a huge disappointment a year ago, clearly the team's worst player, and had a long way to go to do anything in college. No doubt he'll rack up a PPG in the WHL.

If Trevor Lewis had shown up on campus Swystun's departure would have been a blip, but now Michigan is down to 11 forwards. Unless a walkon steps up they'll have to convert a defenseman. Pearson throws Jack Johnson's name out as a possibility, but my money is on David Rohlfs. He's has bounced back and forth from forward to D already and has the size to be a grinding defensive winger. Moving Summers or Kampfer is a bad idea since both will be relied upon to soak up minutes next year, when Michigan figures to have defensemen leave en masse. Johnson is needed on the blueline.

Lloyd Carr and the Hotseat

I try to ignore CFN because it has all the bad bits of the mainstream media without any of the useful ones like actual reporting. But Google News does not discriminate, and my search for "Lloyd Carr" turned up this Matthew Zemek column which was the proverbial straw on my ever-fragile camel's back. He tut-tuts about the shoddy treatment given to Lloyd Carr:

The heat Lloyd Carr has had to deal with at Michigan has been understandable in certain pockets (losing to Notre Dame on an almost annual basis, for example), but is unfathomable in its sustained and overall ferocity. Carr has delivered a national title to Ann Arbor, and earned Rose Bowl berths in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. He has a winning record against Ohio State, and graduates his players. Yes, five of his 11 seasons have failed to either gain double-digit wins or claim a Big Ten title, but that means that the other six seasons have been successful. And yet, Carr is an unpopular figure these days in the shadow of the Big House. ThatÂ’s a perfect example of how scrutiny on coaches is so often misplaced and, moreover, excessive.

Says who? The idea that Lloyd Carr is "on the hotseat" comes entirely from the media. Extrapolating from Michigan's historically bad 7-5 record and a couple FireCoachX websites, one media caveman wildly speculates that Carr must win or leave:

Year in and year out, no Big Ten team is more disappointing. The common denominator: coaching. Hmmmm. Let's call this a make-or-break season for Lloyd Carr. He can handle it, right?

Some may think Carr isn't on a hot seat. Maybe that person is Mrs. Carr.

A second grunts in agreement, implying that he may not believe Carr should go but the fans are pounding on the door, demanding that he be placed in the "hot seat" section:

16. Hot seat (cont.)
We don't necessarily agree with these names but here goes ...

Larry Coker has had the temerity to go 9-3 in consecutive seasons.

Lloyd Carr is coming off Michigan's worst season in 21 years.

A third adds a note of hectoring disapproval:

I have some bad news for the webmasters of FireLloydCarr.com, FireLloydCarrNow.com, FireLloydandTommy.blogspot.com: Carr isn't going anywhere, except to work tomorrow. He'd rather dot the i on Script Ohio than walk away -- or be told to walk away -- from the only college head coaching job he has ever known.

Michigan lets it be known that Lloyd Carr is not going anywhere; this causes the original grunter to write possibly the dumbest column in the history of man:

So, Michigan's brass boldly states that Lloyd Carr is "here to stay."

What did you expect the guys sitting in the high-back leather chairs to utter in August? That Carr was on the hot seat? That Carr had to win the Big Ten this year -- or he would be fired?

Yeah, right. It's just more blabber from the Ann Arbor ivory tower.

Soon relatively blameless local beat writers are getting in on the act, writing sentences about the "controversy" that cite air:

Meanwhile, archrival Michigan has something of a coaching controversy on its hands, as Carr has come under fire following MichiganÂ’s 7-5 season in 2005.

Relatively blameless local beat writer does not indicate where the fire comes from, but I'll tell you. It comes from his colleagues, be they print guys or talk radio droolers. The reason the airwaves are filled with talk of Carr on the hotseat is the same reason Drew Sharp has a column: negative stupidity gets attention.

Sure, there is a certain segment of the fanbase that prints up signs comparing Carr to Osama Bin Laden and nearly gets punched by me before the Penn State game, but they are the lunatic fringe. FireCoachX or FireCoachX.us or CanCoachX are the lunatic fringe of the Internet fanbase, which means they're lunatic indeed. Just because talk radio is filled with tough guys from Warren who demand excellence does not imply anything about the fanbase at large. For perspective, this site gets something on the order of 3,500 uniques per day. A large number of comments is 50, and usually those feature a number of posts from a small subset of people having a discussion. Regular commenters make up under 1% of the site's readership. Now take that, magnify the fanbase by several orders of magnitude, and restrict comments to 20 or so: talk radio callers are statistically insignificant electrons orbiting the fanbase nucleus. To extrapolate the desires of an entire fanbase from the segment of it that is only allowed plastic spoons at dinner is akin to assuming that every newspaper story is a complete fabrication because of Jayson Blair.

They aren't. It's just the ones about Carr and the hotseat.

....aaaand I'm done beating this particular dead horse.

Update: Aaaaaaaaaaargh.

Shirt Updates

Responded to some requests:

• There is now a green and gold version of "Return To Glory" for those with the temerity to wear it into South Bend. The photo doesn't look very legible but the text is in a slightly metallic gold so it should come out fine. Also, its current incarnation is subtle enough to dupe unwise or intoxicated ND fans: beware.
• There are versions of the Hart t-shirts without references to mgoblog.
• There are maize versions of the East Lansing t-shirts and an additional one that claims "East Lansing is a lady of negotiable affection" for those with small children or parents.
• The nice thing about these shirts is they're done with vector graphics and are high quality compared to cafepress type items. This does prohibit the deployment of kittens.

Also, and those of you who already ordered shirts are going to hate me: if you enter the coupon code "SUMMERSALE06" when you check out you will get 15% off until Monday.

Click the shirt to go to the store.

Further Adventures In Ill-Conceived Merchandise

I give you, thanks to this EDSBS post, the Notre Dame yarmulke:



Next up on this company's product list: BYU Cougar-branded condoms and Buckeye books.

Unverified Voracity: Jaren Hayes Returns Edition

Spartan secondary scalded by sprain! Er. It's a break, actually, and one at a position the Michigan State is already desperately thin at: corner. Projected nickelback Ross Weaver is out for the year. Two true freshmen now back up shaky starters Demond Williams and Greg Cooper. Spartan blogger Rob Visconti -- who's sane, a first for Internet Spartans -- is resigned:

Begin placing your bets as to which current Spartan running back and/or wide receiver will be converted to cornerback and vault into the lead for the "Jaren Hayes Memorial What the Hell am I Doing in the Secondary?" award now.

I've got five bucks on Terry Love.

The aforementioned article also has updates on other Spartan bits. The offense, as expected, is tearing through the defense like Charlie Weis through a six-foot slab of pork; freshman kicker Todd Swenson is 10 of 10 after two scrimmages and has won the starting job.

This Mark Mitera article is wonderful until the last sentence:

"As of right now, I committed to going back to school next year. Down the road, you know, we'll see how the cards fall and what's going to happen."

I would not expect Jack-like tenacity next offseason. Hopefully we can get him back for one more year, but that's a nasty quote.

Jarrod Bunch was on Entourage but I don't get HBO so I must refer you to Awful Announcing, which is apparently run by the world's biggest Jarrod Bunch fan. I mean, he watched the Westbrook-Bunch fight.

Rotoworld put together a few NFL teams composed of players from one college, which is a thought exercise everyone goes through at least once per offseason. (Just me? Oh.) There are two separate bricks, one for offense and one for defense.

The articles are a curious mix of accurate NFL evaluations and evidence the author spends Saturdays wastefully. Ignore the comments like "Mike Hart is a poor man's Chris Perry" (er... ok) and "We hear Roger Allison is a potential NFL draftee" (we hear that he's been out of football for over a year) and stick to the NFL stuff.

When you do, you will not be surprised. Team strengths are quarterback, offensive line, and linebacker (Michigan is said to be second in the running for LBU, behind only Miami). Team weaknesses are defensive line and safety (Ernest Shazor starts!).

Michigan finishes fifth in the Tuscaloosa News' rankings of the top football programs. Their system is an amalgam of history and what happened last year. Obviously, last year hurt Michigan badly. Keith Jackson quote:

“There is no doubt this is my favorite place, to see four generations rise up and appreciate it, for the pageantry, the ambiance," said announcer Keith Jackson, who came up with the term “The Big House" for Michigan Stadium. “Michigan has such grandiosity. It has all those All-Americans. You can’t go anywhere without finding a Michigan graduate."

Etc.: This is totally irrelevant, but Grant Wahl's story on DC United's Barra Brava is excellent; The New York Times writes on guarantee games

Shirt! Shirt! Shirt!

So. I would like to introduce you to the wonderfulness that is MGoStore. It currently contains a smattering of t-shirts, some maize, some blue, with snappy sayings that will totally wicked impress all your friends. Click on any of the images to be taken to the store.

(Note: apparently a few shirts, particularly the Hart one, aren't coming up in the popup. The main store url has everything.)

Anyone wishing to confuse students in Honors calculus will want to get their mitts on a "New Math" shirt; those in heart with Hart will want to express that feeling graphically:



And... well, I think I may have gone a little overboard with the Zoltan shirts.



...but that's not overboard. This could possibly be construed as overboard:



"Space Emperor of what" you ask? Of Space. Zoltan is Space Emperor of Space. But wait! There's one more:



First a couple for Michigan's first real opponent of the year -- sorry Vandy -- one of which is definitely punching my ticket to hell.


Incensed comments from NDNation denizens in 3... 2... 1...

And this one is perfect for those of you with friends who are in MSU frats. You know the kind of meathead who doesn't even know that Ann Arbor isn't even a person, right?



If that's a little harsh for you or your grandmother there is an equivalent shirt, only totally classy:



And finally, let it never be said that I didn't take Lloyd Carr's tastes into account when designing the shop:



All proceeds go to a good cause: your local blogger.

Newspapers Filled With Illiterate Columnists

Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Rick Bozich and his heavily airbrushed headshot take on the Internets. Hilarity ensues.* Here's a passage citing Blogpoll brethren Burnt Orange Nation:

After I had uncovered Web sites advocating the dismissals of John L. Smith at Michigan State, Houston Nutt at Arkansas, Urban Meyer at Florida, Brooks and others, I did research on coaches who should be untouchable -- such as Brown, whose team dispatched Southern California in the Rose Bowl last January.

Silly me.

Or silly Longhorns fans. You decide. My search took me to a site named www.burntorangenation.com, where a fan delivered this rant:

"Even though he was behind the national title last year, I find myself not fully believing in Mack Brown? With Number 10 (quarterback Vince Young) gone, I find it difficult to believe that Texas will slip back into its very good, but not championship-level, rate of 10 wins a season."

Throw the bum out. Immediately. Maybe Fred Akers or John Mackovic is available to return to Austin.

Does that passage qualify as a rant? It seems like concern expressed reasonably. There must be a special dictionary for newspapers that defines rant like so:

1. An impassioned, often harsh speech or essay characterized by anger.
2. Anything written on the Internet.

Curious definitions aside, Bozich would be making a good point... if someone from Burnt Orange Nation had written that. BON did no such thing. The cited passage comes from Notre Dame/Halloween candy blog Rakes of Mallow and found its way to BON specifically to be rebutted:

I just don't understand what people want from Mack Brown. He did very well with the Texas players he inherited, he's done damn well with the players he's recruited, and he won a national title with his 2002 #1 recruiting class - many of whom are still on this year's team. I guess I just fail to see how you can have a six year stretch like Mack Brown has had and still have people saying, "Yeah, but..."

... He's one of the best coaches in America, and there's no penalty for winning a national title "just because of" your elite talent. That's exactly what's supposed to happen. And it did.

Add in Bozich missing the subtle sarcasm of CanCharlie.com and the score is Internet Ranters 2, Bozich 0.

*(Several people have theorized that the only thing in the English language that actually "ensues" is a kickoff. Note that "hilarity" is also a member of this privileged group of nouns.)

Carr Press Conference Filtering

Point by point:

Captains are Woodley and Long. Mutter mutter should have made Mike Hart a supercaptain or something mutter.

Alex Mitchell is penciled in at right guard. That, of course, means that the oft-dreaded spectre of Rueben Riley, tackle, is all but official.

Weakside linebacker: advantage Burgess.

David Harris has had a good camp and Prescott Burgess has worked -- he and Chris Graham of course are competing for a linebacker position. Burgess came on strong at the end of last week so we'll just have to see how this week goes.

Job still up in the air; whoever loses will be the first OLB off the bench in case of an injury.

Jamar Adams is (probably) your strong safety. Free safety is being battled out between Brandent Engelmon and Ryan Mundy:

At safety, Jamar Adams has had an excellent fall and (Brandent) Engelman and Ryan Mundy are battling hard at the other position.

Brandon Graham is a defensive end and may play this year.

Skill position redshirts are to be scoffed at. Not only is Carlos Brown going to play but Carr says that Greg Mathews and Brandon Minor will see time in an effort to get their talents out of the program as irritatingly fast as possible. I suppose that's good since it indicates that both Mathews and Minor are talented players, but it's wasteful to hurl them out on the field as freshmen for a few meaningless plays. An argument can be made for getting players like Edwards or Avant time as true freshmen when they're going to be counted on to contribute as a sophomore, but Michigan graduates one wide receiver -- Breaston -- and no running backs this year. Their services will not be critical in '07.

Minor and Brown are the most puzzling. At best they're going to be third string. With Mister Simpson, Jerome Jackson, and Alijah Bradley around Michigan certainly has sufficient numbers to do without the freshmen. At least one should redshirt, especially since Mister Simpson did last year. If both play Michigan will have a knot of three running backs with the same eligibility. In summary: bleah.

Zoltan! Is pushing for starting duties:

"He's punted the ball really, really well and it'll be interesting. But he's really made a push."

Grady is better. Hopefully he won't cut away from the hole this year:

"Kevin has had a very good fall. I think he's in the best shape of his life. He's worked hard and obviously he's had a year under his belt where he got significant playing time. He's made a real investment and has had a really good training camp."

Breaston and Manningham sound like the nominal starters at WR; Adrian Arrington is the #3.

Carr's diplomatic answer to the following doesn't say much unless you read between the lines:

Chemistry with you and defensive meeting...I heard you haven't been there as much. Is that different this year? Are you leaving them alone a little bit? ... "I think I have, and have always had, great confidence in the guys that have coached here for me and I have always believed that you give a guy a job, you give him a responsibility and you can't be looking over his shoulder. You've got to allow him to do the job if you are going to make him accountable. That's what I try to do."

It doesn't say much even if you do read between the lines, on second thought, but he didn't deny it. Hurray seeking confirmation of what I desperately want to be true despite scant evidence suggesting such!

This was said about Henne:

"All the areas, before the ball is snapped, I think he's completely comfortable with. He's got a lot of responsibility before the ball snaps and he's had enough experience and I think he does a great job with those issues. I think he's developing everyday as a leader. Physically, he's in the best shape of his life. I think he's quicker than he was a year ago, because he's more mature. And I think he's throwing the ball very well, so I think he's much improved over the year."

Hopefully it is true.

The captains also spoke to the media.

Michigan Replay Is Funky

It never occurred to me to think the opening music of Michigan Replay strange. By the time I understood things like music and the 70s*, the Michigan Replay theme was so familiar I couldn't possibly evaluate it as anything other than what it was. It existed outside of time and context. I suppose I assumed that it had come from some discarded CD somewhere, its licensing fee a pittance to some obscure artist probably related to a member of the athletic department.

So it came as a shock to me when helpful reader Daniel Young -- now enshrined in the Reader Hall of Fame next to Penn State Guy Who Hates Me Guy and Guy Who Patiently Explains How To Spell "LeSueur" Whenever I Screw It Up Which Is Always Guy -- tracked down the entire, unedited song and emailed it to me. Strip away the state-of-the-art video highlight montage and listen to the blaring horns by their lonesome and like whoah. Cognitive dissonance, man. The Michigan Replay theme is funky. Not like white-boy funky. The kind of funk that alerts Orson to the presence of knee-buckling badonkadonk. Pam Grier funky.

Now that I've heard the thing in its natural habitat and arrived at the inescapable conclusion that it's more appropriate for "Blackula" or "Black Frankenstein" or, I dunno, "Black To The Future" than a couple of stodgy old crackers muttering about the latest football game, I can never go back. The incongruity is too much. Forever and anon the opening credits of Michigan Replay will cause girlish giggles unless we lose, in which case they will provoke nothing until my emotions re-engage sometime around Tuesday.

Here it is; the bits you might recognize kick in after about 35 seconds.



(You can download the file here; right click & "save as")

The reason the song is reminiscent of something Shaft could saunter to is simple: it's from an honest-to-god blaxploitation flick. As Mr. Young writes:

I've scoured the end credits on many occasions, but have yet to find any reference as to where the theme music comes from. Fortunately, I have a friend who's big into old school funk ... he was able to unearth the source of the Michigan Replay theme. It's a cut off the soundtrack to the 1972 blaxploitation flick Across 110th Street called (appropriately) "Across 110th Street Instrumental" by JJ Johnson & His Orchestra. How it ended up as the uncredited theme to Michigan Replay is anybody's guess (maybe Bo was big into funk back in the day).

I'm not sure if the instrumental is the same music as the identically-named title track that, according to Pop Matters, is part of the film's enduring cachet...

Like its cinematic compatriots, Shaft (1971), Trouble Man (1972), and Car Wash (1976), Across 110th Street owes much of its notoriety to a memorable theme song. Written by Bobby Womack and J.J. Johnson and performed by Womack, "Across 110th Street" is a majestic soul-funk classic in its radio incarnation -- perhaps appropriately, the film itself presents a more downbeat version over its opening credits -- and one of the best of that era's numerous musical chronicles of inner-city pain. (Womack's single has since received further exposure from its somewhat incongruous use in Quentin Tarantino's 1997 L.A. noir, Jackie Brown.)

...but I damn well hope so, because when you think "majestic soul-funk," you think Michigan Football.

I personally owe Mr. Young even a bit more, because listening to the MP3 over and over -- and over -- triggered that pulse-quickening realization that was late in coming this year: football. FOOTBALL.



Let's git it aawwwwwn.

*(As much as anyone can possibly understand an era when lime-green corduroys seemed like a good idea.)

Unverified Voracity: Vote For Zoltan Edition

Maybe in-state recruiting isn't going quite as bad as all that. Scout's updated instate rankings have DE Ryan VanBergen at #3, ahead of Dionte Allen, and WR/TE Martell Webb #5. Vince Helmuth is #13, James Rogers #20. Allen to FSU still stings, but if Ronald Johnson does indeed commit Michigan will have pulled three of the top five players instate according to Scout.

Woodley is honest. From an AP article on the senior defensive end:

Three years later, Woodley conceded it's fair to call his career good - not great.

"I came here with a lot of expectations and I think I've gotten a little better each year, but I haven't done all I want to do," he said. "I was really slowed down by a cracked bone on my right forearm last year, but my strength is back and I'm ready to go."

That's harsh, since Woodley was by far the defense's best player last year. Equally honest noise is made by English:

"We need LaMarr Woodley to be a dominant player. I don't think you should sugarcoat that," English said. "He has to make big plays, be consistent and healthy for us to be successful. The LaMarr Woodley that you saw against Texas is the player we need all the time."

Message board denizens have noted Woodley's ominous quote along the lines of "I'm in pretty good shape, not great shape" and taken it as a sign of stagnation in his game. Even if Woodley doesn't take the leap from pretty good to great he's a lock to be All Big Ten if he remains healthy -- a full 12 game season from him would have seen 9 or 10 sacks and something like 20 TFL. All American would be nice, especially with three other players on the line who range from almost as good to frighteningly potential-laden.

We're #6 in terms of successful NFL alumni according to the Wall Street Journal. OSU is #5 and the rest of the schools are ACC/SEC teams. Most pissed off by the list: North Carolina fans, who have had nothing approximating the success their #10 spot implies.

More voting! Bloggers are going ballot crazy. I and a dozen or so others will be participating in a weekly not-Heisman poll:

A player of the year award, voted on by bloggers, that will highlight players who might not play quarter- or tailback for a BCS school in the national title hunt. Stalwart offensive linemen. Doppelganger-like defensive backs. Sure-handed wide receivers. All of those positions shunned by the Heisman will be embraced by the Maxwell Pundit, the first player of the year award voted on by those in the college football blogosphere.

But what about punters, goddammit? Projected first ballot:

1. ZOLTAN THE INCONCEIVABLE
2. I dunno, some loser
3. See above
4. See above
5. Gary Sheffield

Etc.: FO's totally rad Strategy Minicamp articles continue with a look at defensive "stemming," or realigning before the snap; A couple previews from the Cheese State; WCH looks at the potentially bleak Michigan blueline next year.