Basketball: Abra(ha)m will lead us to the promised land

I am a fan of Big Ten Wonk, as any red-blooded flyover country Big Ten fan should be, and have been observing with interest his Points Per Weighted Shot tracking over the course of the year (which was cannily devised by John Hollinger, brazenly renamed by Big Ten Wonk, and appropriated for Michigan-related purposes by mgoblog). Anyone looking at Michigan's numbers can see that they are bad. This is not surprising, because Michigan is a bad team.

But let's take a fantastic voyage... inside the numbers!!! To do this, we need some numbers. Number wrangling, Excel hassling, eventual defeat and the last resort of a screenshot produces this:


I've highlighted numbers I find interesting. Included are all players of significance from this year and last year. First of all: Horton is horrible at this stat. Putrescent. He has two of the four worst scores over the past two years (one, admittedly in a season abbreviated by injury and legal issues). The other two low scores are from Coleman and Harris this year. Coleman and Harris can plead Dani Wohl and John Andrews. Horton has no such mitigating factors.

Second, the numbers seem to support the idea that Harris' awful '05 season can be excused. I tracked some difference stats at the bottom of the chart (basically '05 stats minus '04 stats, leaving all the "extra" shots players took this year). Harris's 131 extra FG attempts and 25 extra FT attempts yielded only 101 points, or 0.71 points per shot. That's atrocious. The player in dead last on BTW's final regular season chart, Purdue's Brandon McKnight, kicks the crap out of it with his 0.87. The working theory of mgoblog is that Harris was forced to take a zillion extremely tough shots because no one else on the floor could create and that his numbers this year are not his fault.

Third, break out the harps, angels, and assorted iconic imagery, because Lester's coming back. PPWS is not a perfect stat. It often overrates players like, say, Brent Petway, who get infrequent shot attempts that are usually thunder-dunks or offensive putbacks but cannot create their own shot. It's better for comparing posts to posts and perimeter players to perimeter players. The real sign of a great player is high PPWS and high volume. See Dee Brown, dominating PPWS this year and taking a truckload of shots doing it. Lester took 257 shots in '04 and finished with 1.28 PPWS, which would be good for seventh in the league this year, behind only a bunch of players from MSU and Illinois... Final Four-bound MSU and Illinois who have multiple efficient offensive options, get a lot of assists, and are generally well-coached basketball teams. Lester does not operate in that sort of environment, and he's still hanging with the very best the Big Ten has to offer. Lester is not a good college player. He is a great college player, and his loss is what murderified this year. He's the kind of player you find on championship teams.

Next year, Abram will be back. If he matches his '04 performance he'll be turning Harris's league worst 0.71 point shots into something approaching the league's best 1.28 point shots. Harris's PPWS will shoot up as well, as he'll actually have an option other than taking an off-balance runner while having his liver eaten by a giant eagle. Coleman should get a good number of open looks for his three-point stroke with better players on the floor around him.

Better days are coming.

Basketball: Shepherd is the One

The one chosen to represent Canada in a US vs. the World All-Star game, that is. Impressive given that highly ranked UCLA recruit Ryan Wright, who considered Michigan, is also from the Great White North.

This is what Shepherd's coach thinks of him:

"If he finishes off well, people will be putting him in that class as one of the best (high school) players ever produced in Canada," Dawkins said. "And if you combine that with his character, he could be one of the greatest of them all out of Toronto."

Mmmm, that's good praise. Hopefully he can contribute immediately.

Basketball: I read Sharp so you don't have to!

Ugh. The only thing more sickening than Drew Sharp trashing class college athletes as "losers" is Drew Sharp praising them.

"On a day that celebrated resurrection, Michigan State rose from the ashes of stinging doubt to reach its expectations," says Sharp. Gee, I wonder whose stinging doubt we could be referring to, hmmm? Maybe yours, you front-running bandwagon fool? Could you have said something like "these guys just don't have it"? Or maybe something like "they're already done" after the Iowa BTT loss? Perhaps the main media voice that was driving the trashing of Hill, Anderson, Davis, et al, was yours, hmmm?

Sharp's spent all year trashing the MSU seniors for being choking losers, running a column after every loss about how pathetic they are. Now they're in St. Louis, in the Final Four, and does Sharp mention this fact in any of his fawning "they're just tougher" columns? No. He just jumps on the bandwagon and hopes people don't remember. How does this guy have a job? Why isn't he working in a White Castle somewhere? We'll never know.

What we do know is that "Razor Sharp" stands at #1,388,509 on Amazon, slightly below "Hitler's Book of Bedtime Stories" and only three above "This Book Doesn't Exist." The man is a joke.

Speaking of jokes, check out this review of "Razor Sharp," which is awesome.

Uh, what now?

I dunno. All three major sports are finished this year. Spring practice is in full swing, but information regarding said practice is generally either premium or non-existent. Recruiting will probably trundle along sleepily until the mid-summer camp.

I have these things on my plate for the spring and summer: a "State of the Program" for both basketball and hockey, a Hockey Recruiting Blowout(!), NFL draft coverage as it relates to Wolverines (and, cough, the Lions), and any targets of opportunity that present themselves. So. Be on the lookout for three to four diatribes you could print out and stun a water buffalo with, but hugely substantive posting is probably going to be on the low side, since news of substance will probably be scarce. I was hoping to make this post in two weeks, but apparently God has decided that this is the year of Extremely Painful Michigan Sports... Rose Bowl, basketball disaster, CC game... Worst. Year. Ever.

Worst in the Sports-Guy "stomach punch" sense, that is, not the Bobby Williams "49-3" sense. But you knew that already.

Basketball: Free the horses!

Ok, ok, ok. The Big Ten added two impressive scalps to its resume over the weekend in #3 Arizona and #2 UK. Wisconsin also scared the living daylights out of #1 UNC. Crow away, BT partisans, as no matter what happens the rest of the way, the conference has had the best tournament of any in the tournament, period.

The mild annoyance of another Spartan run in the tournament is mitigated by the further proof it provides that Douche Sharpe has no idea what he's talking about, ever. EVER EVER. I have nothing but antipathy for Michigan State and all it stands for (in summary: beer and timekeeper cheating), but I have to note that MSU's senior class has handled itself with nothing but class for every moment of their four years, has won an awful lot, and has never popped their damn jerseys. Anyone disputing their achievements, or the way they got them, is an idiot.

Hockey: Ugh

Well, I managed to see the final two periods of the CC game, and needless to say, I wish I hadn't. My posting was delayed by more stupid computer issues, but honestly I don't think I would have anything to say over the weekend anyway. Nothing other than my best Droopy Dog impression, anyway.

That one hurt, worse than any Michigan game I've ever watched except maybe the OT loss to Minnesota in the Frozen Four. Up 3-0 halfway through the second, playing extremely well for the second night in a row... and then it all fell apart, starting with Brandon Rogers' idiotic boarding penalty to put Michigan down two men. CC scored off a fluky bounce on the ensuing power play when Nystrom blocked a CC shot and the puck went right to the tape of Sertich and into the net and Michigan started pulling back. I won't detail what happened next in an effort to preserve my failing sanity. Read a recap if you like.

Anyway, a second night of absolutely atrocious refereeing from HE's Hansen did not help matters. Hansen, who is either a moron or a communist, missed a slew of obvious calls and absolutely cost Michigan the game when he allowed an obvious high-stick deflection to stand for a CC goal and then failed to explain it to the Michigan bench in any satisfactory way. They even reviewed the goal and for a second night screwed Michigan out of a goal. Why bother to even review goals if you're going to get it wrong anyway? If Red won't say it, I will: the state of refereeing in college hockey is absolutely unacceptable. Nearly every game is a disaster, even in the NCAA tournament.

That's not to take credit away from a very good CC team. They're talented and disciplined, but I think Michigan takes 7 of 10 from the Tiger, which is what makes the whole thing so awful. Michigan was looking like national champions.... and then... nothing. I had Michigan figured for Columbus about halfway through the game, but I suppose with all the miracle comebacks Michigan's foisted upon other teams throughout the years--96 North Dakota, 98 Denver, 99 Denver, etc, etc, etc--it was bound to come back and bite Michigan eventually.

In conclusion, bleah.

Basketball: Hold Yon Horses

Right, right, the Big Ten has three teams in the Elite Eight of the bouncy bouncy tournament, which is vindication of a league that was maligned all year for being composed entirely of autistic ducks or whatever, according to a bunch of people.

But... not so fast, my friend! Let's look at the murderer's row of opponents the Big Ten has dispatched:
#16 Fairleigh-Dickinson
#14 Bucknell
#13 Vermont
#12 Old Dominion
#12 UW-Milwaukee
#11 Northern Iowa
#10 NC State
#9 Nevada
#1 Duke

That's two teams from major conferences and one team that was expected to make it past the first round. MSU's win over Duke is impressive, but anyone watching over the past couple weeks could have told you that the paper-thin Blue Devils were ripe for the taking, especially with JJ Redick doing his best Gavin Groninger impression during the tournament.

Now come the tests. Illinois has a dangerous Arizona team up next. MSU has a deep and talented UK team (with extra special Joe Crawford drama!). Wisconsin will be up against North Carolina. If two of these teams make it into the Final Four, begin crowing with gusto, Big Ten partisans. But don't pretend that because Wisconsin and Illinois can totally claim that they're way better than a bunch of double digit seeds that the league didn't deserve the rap it got.

Hockey: Veectory!

As predicted, Michigan throttled Wisconsin tonight 4-1. The Badgers were never really in the game, going down 4-0 before scoring a meaningless goal with under five minutes to go in the game. Michigan outshot the Badgers in the first period 18 to 4 and controlled the entire game save for a few instances of sustained pressure Wisconsin managed in the second period.

There was absolutely no criticism that can be made about Michigan's performance tonight, but the same cannot be said for the referee, Hockey East's Hansen, who let UW get away with hooking, holding, and the whole variety grab-bag of interference penalties the entire night and refused to call numerous dangerous instances of boarding and charging by UW. A properly officiated game would have seen UW playing a man down the entire game. That wasn't even the worst of the officiating atrocities tonight. The worst was an obvious Chad Kolarik goal being ignored by the video replay judge. Why have the replay if you are going to completely ignore the evidence presented to you?

Anyway, Wisconsin reminded me more of an overmatched CCHA team with no offensive clue than a high-powered WCHA dynamo. That expected WCHA dynamo will show up tomorrow when Michigan faces off with Sertich, Sterling, and, oh yeah, a bunch of other guys in Colorado College uniforms. The NCAA's top four scorers will all take the ice tomorrow, with the CC duo running 1-2 and Tambellini and Hensick following up in third and fourth, respectively, after a combined 7 points tonight.

Should be a barn-burner, but CC will have to play much better than they did in squeaking by what should have been an overmatched Colgate team 6-5 with a late third period goal. It says here that they will, but Michigan will come with fire and brimstone and grind out a solid victory.

Basketball: Oh, yeah

Did anyone else notice that Cincinatti had a player named Jihad Muhhamad? Are you kidding me? That's like naming your newborn Saudi Arabian infant "Crusade Jesus." I'm just saying it wouldn't go over very well.

Hey, look, Amaker's on TV for some reason. "Defining Success" by American Express. Apparently American Express defines success as "missing the tournament entirely." Also, Amaker hasn't changed his hairstyle since he was at Duke.

Vacation aborted, sort of

Since Snowbird, Utah has a) high speed internet in its hotel rooms and b) not much else, I find myself with some time on my hands, as is usually the case after breakin' yoself skiing. I managed to catch the CCHA championship game against OSU and now offer some belated thoughts.

I thought the game was quite encouraging going into the tournament. Michigan ran over OSU, outhitting them signficantly, which almost never happens when Michigan runs into a physical OSU-type team. Usually Michigan contents itself with getting a little beat up and winning anyway. Not so against OSU. Nystrom, Brown, Ryznar and company were all over the ice stapling Buckeyes to the boards. Nystrom has begun to assert himself as captain on the ice in a way that is somewhat reminiscent of Ortmeyer. Michigan will need to sustain that physical play against a tough Wisconsin team that plays a lot like the Buckeyes (only one BILLION times better because they are from the holy WCHA).

Also encouraging was Montoya's play. It was the first very good game I've seen from him probably all year. He couldn't possibly have stopped either goal and made several good saves. He wasn't forced into making a great one (except maybe a pad-stack off a rebound). No shakiness occurred and was not tempted to scream "get back in the net!" even once. He looked, dare I say, focused. I know, I know. I talk the crazy.

The bad, well, I shudder at the prospect of Sertich and Sterling rushing into the offensive zone against just about any of our defenders, should the anticipated CC-Michigan matchup occur. Moss was missed. His return for the tournament is still up in the air, and followers of this blog know the irrational affection I have for the heady Moss. But there isn't a whole lot to dislike about the OSU game, to be honest, and I have high hopes entering the NCAA tournament.

I believe I'll be able to catch the game tomorrow, but I will be on a plane for any hypothetical second-round game until about six, so I will miss maybe half the game, perhaps even more if Northwest Air screws up, but, come on, what are the chances of that?

Don't answer that.

Anyway, my predictions for this weekend: Michigan throttles the reeling Badgers, and wins against CC by shutting off Sterling and Sertich and peppering McElhinney. Columbus awaits.

DON'T PANIC

mgoblog is going on vacation next week. Please do not call the police and file a missing persons report when the blog is not updated. I'll be back next weekend, hopefully to preview a Frozen Four with Michigan included.

In the meantime, I suggest you reconnect with nature and your family. It's time.

Hockey: Michigan Advances

Dominating victory for Michigan today, winning 3-1 in a game that was scoreless until about the halfway point when Brandon Kaleniecki scorched a bullet past Wylie Rogers. Jeff Tambellini followed that up at the end of the second with a "where-who-what-how?" shot that was past Rogers before he even knew it had left Tamby's stick. Michigan outshot UAF 44-15-ish. Rogers played out of his mind or this oculd have been another 10-1 annihilation.

The lone moment of concern was the UAF goal. A horrific unforced Nick Martens turnover sent a Nanook in on Montoya. Montoya unwisely attempted a poke check, missed it, and conceded his now-familiar weak five-hole goal. He was largely a spectator for the rest of the game.

Michigan plays the winner of MSU-OSU tomorrow.

Football: What? What?

Carty's latest: "The president of the United States can testify in front of an entire committee about his defense, but Michigan fans can't expect Carr to do the same?"

This is totally unfair, but that analogy makes this comparison necessary:


It's totally unfair, I know. Chris Burke is loved by millions and Life Goes On was fantastic television. Jim Carty is loved by his mother. Maybe. Sorry, Chris.

Anyway, OL_LBL basically summed up my feelings for me on the Victors. I'll cut and paste here because posts roll off that board:

I am sick of the media. The media does not "represent the fans." They represent frustrated egotistical wannabees who basically can't do anything else for a living. Like all media, Carty has set himself up as some kind of omnipotent uber-expert demanding specific answers to all his concerns.

Of course, the results speak for themselves - the defense needs to get a lot better in order to compete for the NC. Either Herrmann has to significantly change what he's doing, or ultimately Carr will get someone else. In the meantime, Carr is not going to answer to some pasty-faced [flip]nut like Carty or Drew Sharp or any other media [stupid]head, and hang Herrmann up to dry for the entertainment of the media. [Flip] the media. What Carr needs to do is go out and win games, and tell Herrmann what to do to get that done. If he does, they will be all back on their knees in front of him.

Amen.

Football: CFN cannot shut up about Michigan

The latest Ask CFN addresses yet more Michigan issues, including the crowded backfield (paraphrased question: Is Mike Hart going to end up a backup? mgoblog answer: What? Stop doing drugs) and the Great Lloyd Carr Debate (again).

Also, Braylon's pro day apparently went "great." BE ran in the low 4.4s.

Hockey: Hensick for Hobey

TJ Hensick is one of the ten Hobey Baker finalists, as expected. Tambellini is not, even though in my opinion he's Michigan's MVP. Two other CCHA players were nominated, goalies Jordan Sigalet and Tuomas Tarkki. Sigalet, as you may have heard, was recently diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.

Conventional wisdom has the award going to Marty Sertich or Brent Sterling, linemates at CC, since they're 1-2 in national scoring. None of the four goalies nominated really has a Ryan Miller-like resume, and the single defenseman up for the award plays for Quinnipiac. So it's down to the five forwards, IMO, and if that's the case 99% of the time they go with the dude who scored the most.

Basketball: Hatred(!)

Slate has a sunnily angry article up called "Teams We Hate" in this year's NCAA tournament. Yes, Duke is featured. So are UT-Chattanooga, Villanova, and Penn, though, so it's some equal-opportunity hatin'.

Flabbergasting this, however:

That's a hockey stick! Jesus, Vermont! Stop playing basketball with hockey sticks!

Football: Weirdness

This free GBW article on VA WR Percy Harvin (generally regarded as the country's #1 recruit period at the moment) directly contradicts the conventional wisdom on the young man (eg, FSU-lockalicious). He lists his top give as USC, Miami, Tennesee, Florida and Michigan, and says this about FSU:

"You can throw Florida State on the list too I guess," he said. "I like them too."

Far out, man. He says he'll officially visit Michigan. I still doubt he ends up a Wolverine but a visit is better than nothing.

Addressing a couple of comments

I thought I'd respond to a couple comments in a non-confrontational way. (Seriously, I appreciate any and all comments you guys post.)

An anonymous poster said, to paraphrase, that Lloyd should open up with the media more and that many of the questions he posed are exactly the kind of things Michigan fans would like to know. And that much is true. I do take issue with the idea (more Carty's and not the commenter's) that Lloyd is somehow unusual amongst coaches with his vague, meandering, meaningless answers. He's a bit chippier than most, but he's by no means unique with the "to win the ball game we have to play 60 minutes, protect the ball, and don't beat ourselves" blah blah blah. Every coach in America does that. And Carty's asking for specifics about why the defense failed that no coach in America would talk to the media about. I mean, seriously, should Carr detail his master plan to stop Stanton this year months and months before the game?

The whole thing smacks of sour grapes because Carr has better things to do than talk to Carty.

"Maize" posted something on the Jerret Smith thread about me being a little harsh on him. I know he wasn't brought in to be a shooter. I was hoping to see (well, hear about) an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio, hard nosed defense, and a great mind for the game. This doesn't appear to be going on. Smith plays well occasionally, all right frequently, and poorly too often. He's been wildly inconsistent. He hasn't been playing defense. He made a number of apparently Horton-esque turnovers in his most recent game. I just don't feel confident in any way that he'll become an above-average Big Ten player. I'm rooting for it, of course, but my expectations are low.

It sounds like Sheperd was a find, though. I'm excited about him and Price. I'm putting together a State of the Program post on basketball. I'll talk more about these things in that.

OT: Hollinger rides again

ESPN Insider is pretty hit and miss, but they've recently added NBA stat wonk John Hollinger to their lineup and he's been churning out fantastic stat-wonky columns regularly.

But not satisified with merely being dorkily interesting, Hollinger even busted out a line I wish I thought of in his most recent article on Carlos Boozer and his Cavs replacement, Dwight Gooden: "One year later, the only award Boozer contends for is the Santana Award (given annually to the biggest sellout named Carlos)."

That's quality comedy, folks. And that's not all! He's helpfully pointed out CarlosLoozer.com, which is flipping awesome.

Anyway, the article is here($) if you have Insider. If you don't, just go to CarlosLoozer.com. It's better than work.

Basketball: Pershing v. Romulus

Michigan signee Jerret Smith and Michigan target Deshawn Sims faced off last night in a regional playoff game with Smith's Romulus team winning 82 to 68.

A couple of good threads with first hand observations on the game have popped up on the Wolverine message board. In conclusion: Smith's better than Dani Wohl. But only just. Erratic shooting, lax defense, and seven turnovers are all mentioned. There are good sides to his game, too... but Smith is not going to be a program savior. Or even a starter, probably.

Hockey: Moss possibly out this weekend.

So says Mike Spath on the Wolverine. He bruised a calf and picked up some awesome internal bleeding. Also, Charlie Henderson is dinged up so he may not be able to replace him, which could mean that Rohlfs will yo-yo back to forward at least temporarily. Oy vey.

The Super Six starts tomorrow, but I'm hearing rumblings that some other tournament is going on that may overshadow it. Curling? Polo?

Football: Carty calls out Carr

Jim Carty, the Ann Arbor News's beat writer, wrote a pretty incendiary article today asking pointed questions of Lloyd. I'm sure he won't answer them, nor should he: most of the questions are of the "when did you stop beating your wife?" variety. But I'm not married, so I'll answer for him.

Why did a defense that allowed an average of 18 points per game in its first eight games give up 33 points per game in its final four contests?

Well, because Jim Herrmann has never figured out how to defend mobile quarterbacks. No doy.

What changed? Did opponents, starting with Michigan State, figure something out? Did the players lose focus? Or was it something else?

MOBILE QUARTERBACKS.

Then there's the mobile quarterback issue.

What mobile quarterback issue? I have no idea what you're talking about.

Having been shredded by shifty Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith for 8.1 yards per rush in their final game of the regular season, what adjustments did Michigan make going into the Rose Bowl to stop another running quarterback?

Jesus, Carty, if you knew the answer already, why didn't you say so? Anyway, the answer to your current question is "hid head under blanket and pretended boogieman would go away."

Why did Michigan struggle to tackle against Ohio State and Texas?

MOBILE QUARTERBACKS. Jesus!

Why did All-American safety Ernest Shazor disappear down the stretch?

Why wouldn't he? The rest of the D did.

Why did linebacker Pierre Woods have little impact all season?

He beats up puppies and steals from the poor. I mean, he allegedly does so. I heard it on the interweb!

Was linebacker Lawrence Reid - who's subsequently retired due to a neck injury - playing hurt? If yes, did his injury affect his play?

Let me think... uh, yes? Obviously? A degenerative neck injury that causes you to retire from football after the season... yeah, that's probably bad.

Why wasn't linebacker Joe Sarantos, one of your best special teams players, asked back for a fifth season?

Because Joey Sarantos is not good enough at football to warrant it (sorry, Joey). This is not unusual, Carty... don't try to make a common occurence that all players know is a possibility into some sort of scandal. Punk.

After leading the nation in turnovers earlier in the year, why did the Wolverine defense recover only one fumble and make only one interception over its final four games?

Turnovers are mostly luck, and you know it you sot. What's a sot? I dunno. But it's not good. Also, MOBILE... well, you get the picture.

Herrmann's defense allowed more points during the regular season than every Big Ten team except Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois and Indiana (none of which went to a bowl game). Since he's blessed with highly rated recruits at just about every position, how much of the blame for that kind of performance falls on Herrmann's tactics?

All of it.

How, in Carr's evaluation, is the defensive coordinator held responsible?

What? Does this make any sense to anyone? I think this sentence sucks.

Finally, how is Carr going to fix what went wrong?

Ah. This is an actual question. I don't know. I don't know if Carr knows. But I'm willing to give the man the benefit of the doubt. When the offense was a problem, Carr addressed it. When the special teams was a problem, Carr addressed it. Now the defense is a problem. Carr will address it.

Ok, ok. I realize that this post was mostly snotty and not substantive in anyway whatsoever. There are issues there. But pointing them out in such an "ah-ha!" way is grandstanding. Dishonestly implying that there was something shady behind Sarantos' departure from the team or anything surrounding Lawrence Reid's unfortunate situation is sensationalist garbage. Congratulations, Carty. You got everyone's attention. You get to be the star, asking tough questions and DEMANDING ANSWERS(!!!). Now you have your revenge on all the mean boys who used to beat you up.

The verdict? Carty ackered up here.

Hockey: Another Johnson & Mitera report

VOB went to see the U18s versus the Soo Indians and filed this report. The only Michigan players mentioned are the two defensemen. I'll excerpt here:

Jack Johnson - easily the best player on the ice last night and its not hard to see why he ranked only behind Crosby for this year's draft. An absolute rock in terms of strength and physical play. Threw thunderous body checks with reckless abandon causing many Indian turn overs in both ends. His physical play alone will get him into the NHL but coupled with a good skating stride and an ability to handle the puck on the rush and the PP will make him a number 1 Dman and a potential franchise player. The only problem may be that he is too aggressive and while this may be a problem in the NCAA next year, it won't in the NHL.

Mark Mitera - man oh man is Michigan going to have quite the D men with both Johnson and Mitera suiting up next year. A solid Dman who did not make a mistake the whole night. He must have grew 3 inches and added 20 pounds from the time I saw him last and he uses his size quite well. Does not have the vision or offensive upside as Johnson but is steady and dependable as they come. Has a good low shot and good skating abilities. Was used on both the pp and pk. A sure fire top 4 NHL Dman and a first round pick in the 06 entry draft.

We already knew that about Johnson, but such a glowing report on Mitera is very encouraging. I like what I saw from him a lot in the UM-U18 game, and the general rumble is that he has taken a quantum leap forward in the past year or so.

VOB is a guy with some connections in the OHL. I think he's directly affiliated with some team or another. He and I have frequently sparred on the HF message boards about NCAA hockey vs. CHL hockey (I, of course, have demolished him each time, leaving him to wonder what the point of this whole world is, anyway), but he knows what he's talking about. Sometimes it's hard to distinguish the guys who have a clue from the 14 year old 31337 kids but VOB is one of the former.

Hockey: I told you to take a picture

Michigan's fleeting stay at #4 in the Pairwise is over. This weekend was a total disaster/gift from heaven for Michigan, as Miami and Bowling Green lost their way out of TUC status. Michigan dropped into a tie for sixth with Harvard and likely sealed a trip to Grand Rapids for regionals.

The weekend was actually a total disaster for OSU, who managed to squeak by Ferris in three games but dropped from a solid three seed to 16th in the PWR and out of the tounament, largely because of those TUCs dropping off the face of the earth. This also killed Northern's faint at-large hopes, killed 'em dead.

Looking at the RPI shows exactly how screwed the CCHA is getting by the PWR this year. The RPI cutoff for TUC status is 0.500. Three of the first four non-TUC teams are mediocre CCHA teams: UAF (0.4991), BGSU (0.4989), and Miami (0.4953).

I think it's time to move past the bizarre fiction that the stubbornly stupid PWR system, which is followed letter-for-letter by the NCAA hockey committee when seeding teams in the tourney, is somehow superior to the actual judgement of humans. Either move to a system that does not have obviously counterintuitive properties (eg, UW would have been better served losing this weekend than winning) and arbitrary distinctions between teams (eg, considering wins over BGSU to be really, really significant until they lose two games of 40), or let actual people who can actually apply reason do it.

Also, please note that PWR is giving Michigan exactly what it wants right now, a spot in GR, so this is not self-serving whining. It's principled whining.

Hockey: Sweet.

I just noticed that the front page of Michigan Hockey Net has a video of the Ortmeyer-Nystrom-Ortmeyer goal to beat #1 DU from the Yost regional a couple years back. Gives me chills.

Wha?

I... I... don't know what to say. (Stolen from The Victors.)

Update: Oh. Thanks to reader Carl P Grant(!).

Football: CFN on Lloyd

Ask CFN starts off with a couple of UM questions. One answer contains this sentence: "Outside of being unable to stop Vince Young in the Rose Bowl and Ohio State's Troy Smith, what was so horrible with the Wolverine run defense?"

That's like asking "Outside of the Holocaust, what was so bad about Hitler?"

They also come down on the side of Carr in the epic Wolverine Fan Coach Battle, but since their self-esteem doesn't wax and wane with Michigan wins and losses you knew that already.

Football: More strategery

David Sklansky is a well-known poker author. He runs Two Plus Two publishing, which prints a free internet mag. In the latest issue he addresses a topic I've gone over before: when to go for it. If you were interested in the Romer paper I linked to before but math makes your brain hurt, Sklansky provides a good basic summary of the principles behind it.

To summarize: football coaches are too conservative, often choosing the 'safe' play over the 'risky' one, even if the risky play is statistically far superior. The article also spawned an interesting thread on their forums. Serious gamblers have a state of mind that makes football coaches' decisions incomprehensible. In their opinions, positive expectation (i.e., how 'good' something is for you) is always more important than variance (i.e., how likely it is that something very good or very bad happens instead of something in between). Now, this may not be the case in an unevenly matched situation. If you are the heavily favored team you should probably adopt the lower variance strategy, expecting that you'll increase your chance of winning by lowering the variance more than you would by taking a marginally positive expectation.

Lloydball is thus somewhat justified by this point of view... if Lloydball actually reduces variance. I submit that it's not necessarily that clear. Running and eating the clock increases variance as you're reducing the number of plays/drives in the game and thus reducing the chance that your assumed superiority will show on the scoreboard by the time the game is over. That's akin to watching Michigan play Illinois in Crisler and seeing Illinois run every shot clock under ten seconds before getting into their offense. If you are a heavy favorite and your offense is equally effective running and passing, you should be playing to lengthen the game by getting in and out of the huddle quickly, throwing frequently, and getting out of bounds. (This obviously only applies to strategy early in the game. The particular situation you find yourself in drives decision making later.) Punting, on the other hand, is always the low variance play. The opponent will likely have the ball about 30 or 40 yards back from your current position on the field. Going for it has two very different outcomes: you've got it or they do. It's high variance.

That doesn't necessarily mean that a favored team should always pick the low variance play, it just means that they should have a higher expectation threshold than an underdog. A perfect example of this was a game a few years ago between a very down Alabama squad and #1 Oklahoma. 'Bama started the game off with an onside kick which they recovered. They then proceeded to scare the pants off the Sooners before some scatback named Works pulled OU's butt out of the fire. The decision to onside kick it was brilliant for Dennis Franchione, Alabama's coach at the time, but would have been a blunder had Bob Stoops tried it.

In conclusion, Lloyd should hire Doyle Brunson.

Hockey: Berenson Article

In the News.

Warning: don't believe Niyo when he says "Michigan (26-7-3) knows a postseason conference title likely would clinch a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament." Unless they've been lied to, they should know that they're likely a #2 no matter what they do in the tourney. The only way the have a chance for a #1 is to win.

Another thing:

This is the fewest losses we've had since the Brendan Morrison Destroy(!) year of 96-97. The CCHA isn't nearly as good as it was back then but that's still pretty impressive.

Football: Myron Rolle video

Scout has posted some free Myron Rolle video. Rolle, if you haven't heard, is one of the top recruits in the country. Possibly #1. He's down to five schools: OU, UM, and the big three in Florida. He's said that academics and distance are most important to him... but given that list of schools I don't think that's the case. I did watch his interview on Rivals AMP, though, and when the kid says he wants to be a doctor you believe him instead burst out into laughter. He sounds like a senator.

Football: MSU oy.

State hired UTEP DC Tim Hundley to replace their DB coach. Ordid they? Apparently Hundley decided that El Paso was the place for him, which I think is a mistake, because I figure MSU will end up in the Sun Bowl at least every six years or so (sorry, Motor City Bowl! They're movin' on up!).

So JLS has lost coaches to Michigan, OSU, and Illinois (ouch) in the past few months and now got shot down by someone coaching friggin' UTEP (double ouch). JLS: I'm available, but if I get an offer from GVSU I'm gone.

Sheesh.

Friggin' finally. Blogger has been very naughty for a day and a half, thus prohibiting me from showering you with... uh, information. Or whatever. Aaaanyway.

The basketball team managed to acker away their BTT game against Northwestern a few hours ago. Now we can stop pretending the basketball season is over, because it's actually over. Next year we will have three freshmen, Abram, and Horton back. Better days are coming.

The All-CCHA teams were announced. Tambellini and Hensick are on the first team. Hunwick is on the second. Nystrom and Rogers are honorable mention. Werner and Montoya(!) recieved votes. Montoya got a single third-place vote from some coach trying to be a wiseass, no doubt. My money's on Crazy Frank Anazalone, who once told me to "shut the #$&* up" when I politely suggested he should stop whining to the referee. I'll miss that guy when he has a brain hemorrhage.

Anyway, I can't argue with the placement of any of Michigan's players. Tambellini and Hensick were obvious selections. Hunwick and Rogers are both excellent college players. Good to see Nystrom get some recognition too, even though his point totals don't jump off the page at you.

It's conference tourney time in college hockey and the number of games left in the season is coming down to the point where people can start running sims to see where their teams will end up. Most interestingly, Wisconsin, who not long ago was tied with Michigan for 6th, is in serious danger of missing the tournament. The vagaries of the retarded PWR system and the hair-breadth of UW's lead over several teams mean it may actually behoove UW to lose its opening round playoff series versus UAA. UAA would presumably then become a TUC and UW's (projected) 4-2 or 5-2 record over the Seawolves would push their ~.500 TUC upwards enough to hold off challengers.

Football: Let's rein in the rhetoric, mmm?

Peter King: "The Raiders franchised a lousy player, and now they might be stuck with him. His name is Charles Woodson, and his last great game was in Ann Arbor eight years ago."

Um... correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Woodson a four-time Pro Bowler? No corrections? Ah, good. No disputing the fact that he has been banged up the past few seasons on the field and less than a model citizen off of it, but he's still Charles Woodson.

Hated competition!

I followed a link of the Victors to this... this... abomination(!) that threatens my Microsoft-esque monopoly on the Michigan blog market. Curses!

Does he update several times a day (when motivated)? No. Does he have a beautiful maize and blue color-scheme? No! Should you read it? Well, sure. It's worth it just for this pithy summary of Terrell's career: "David Terrell's pointless Chicago existence came to an end last week."

Just come back here later, or you'll be sorry. That's right. I'm an Internet Tough Guy.

Update: Whoah, whoah, whoah. I think this post got filed under "attempted humor that makes me look like a jerk." I'm just kidding about competition, etc, and I was attempting to poke fun at my own obsessiveness. I failed to communicate my intent. Let me clarify: I heartily endorse "iBlog for Cookies."

Handy summary of ESPN

Do you remember Dan and Keith? Or even Dan and Kenny? Back when SportsCenter didn't feature phony jive-talking, yellin' fools like Stephen A. Smith, Dan and Cohost had a rollicking good time offering sports highlights and no, count them, no episodes of the "Budweiser Hotseat."

Suffice it to say that the network that shows us "Tilt" and "Playmakers" is no longer the magical fairyland it once was.

Anyway, check out Page 2's new columnist:

He's got attitude! Yow! Look at his intimidating glare!

Bleah. The dude even name-checks Smith in his "Scoop Manifesto" which is basically a bunch of sentences beginning with "I believe." A brief sample:

"I believe Biggie's 'Either you sling rock or got a wicked jump shot' is the best sports lyric ever."

Expectations were set low when this purported to be a paragraph:

So instead of wasting space on Page 2 ducking my own sic, I figured if I told you some of the things I believe in, that would give you a better idea of what I intend to flip once a week for the Worldwide Leader. Because it ain't where you at; it's where you coming from that matters. Right?

What. The. Hell. Look, I watch MTV Jams. I know what "skeet skeet skeet" means. I think Flipmode is the greatest. But I have no goddamn idea what Scoop Jackson is talking about. His debut article on Illinois... is it self-parody? Is he subtly mocking, Jonathan Swift-style, the influx of retarded bravado that plagues sports journalism, radio, and television across the country?

I regret to say that I have concluded that he is not. He calls Chicago "the Crilla." Apparently he does this with a straight face. I can't tell because I wasn't there, but I'd like to imagine him crouched over a laptop, giggling to himself, saying "I can't believe they fell for it." But alas. It is not to be.

(Disclaimer: I DO NOT HATE BLACK PEOPLE. I DO NOT HATE BLACK CULTURE. I OWN OUTKAST CDS JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER VAGUELY WITH-IT WHITE DUDE.)

Football: Yet more preseason Rank-ery

I missed this when it was posted a few days ago, but here's Dennis Dodd's top 25. Now, Dodd's one of those sportswriters who thinks snarkiness is a good substitute for intelligence, but I present it to you as an example of the high expectations being placed on the Big Ten next year. Dodd has Iowa #2, OSU #6, Michigan #9, and Purdue #17. He also includes Minnesota and Wisconsin in his "ten others to watch" category.

Iowa's emergence as a third Big Ten power seems to have completely shifted public perception of the conference. If OSU beats Texas watch the annoying Big Ten Hype punditry to take off. (As a side note, as much as I loathe OSU, it takes stones to schedule Texas OOC.)

Baseball? Sure, what the hell.

Michigan's previously doormat-like baseball team (now featuring QB/P Clayton Richard) is 5-2 on the young season. Their last two games have featured wins over #8 Georgia and #10 North Carolina.

Michigan's actually moved into the "Collegiate Baseball Newspaper Poll," which sounds dumb but is apparently the Baseball equivalent of the AP Poll. They're #24. Number 24 with a damn bullet.

Red chatting at one

Hey, Nick Martens... here's your opportunity to ask why you keep getting benched instead of Cook. Red will be in CSTV chat at 1 PM.

Sean Hakes video

Is up on Sunshine Preps. Hakes' recruitment is going to be an interesting one, as his older brother posts on both Buckeye Planet and the Wolverine as SHAKES2003 (and possibly other places I don't visit) and is quite frank about what's going on with Sean. Sean's originally from Ohio and was an OSU fan growing up, but now favors Michigan, according to SHAKES2003.

It'll be interesting to see where this one goes just for the peek inside the process SHAKES promises to provide.

Basketball: Ba article

More of a human interest story than anything, but a good one. Ba's life has been considerably more interesting than mine, in the bad way.

I found this little exchange pretty shocking:

Twenty-five college coaches filled Bridgton's Memorial Gymnasium on a September afternoon in 2001 to watch the team work out. Among them was Charles Ramsey, the Michigan assistant coach who needed a big man.

"I kind of like Amadou," Ramsey told Lesure afterward.

"You've got to be kidding me," Lesure said.

Ramsey left and Lesure figured that was the last he'd hear from Michigan. Amadou, who averaged seven points and seven rebounds per game at Grissom, was a borderline Division I prospect. But Ramsey called back. Then Lesure sat down with Amadou at his dorm's dining room table.

"If you want to be a three-year starter or a captain, Michigan ain't the place," Lesure said.

Lesure stopped for a minute. He knew Amadou's high school coaches were concerned the basketball at Michigan would be over his head.

"I want you to think about that," Lesure said.

The next day Amadou told Lesure he wanted to go to Michigan. Lesure told him to sign the letter of intent and mail it the same day, before Michigan changed its mind.

Um... nice to have a guy like Ba getting an education, but when his high school coach says "you've got to be kidding me" when you mention you think you might offer him, uh... well, uh. I'm just saying that's kind of disturbing. How much influence does Ramsey have here? We offered a marginal top-150 guy, Jerrett Smith, as a sophomore, and he accepted. I'm not saying that Smith doesn't deserve an offer, but he is not the kind of guy you offer after two years of high school. Better to wait and see how things develop. Compare that to the hockey program: when they offer and accept a commitment that early, it's someone like Jack Johnson or Tristin Llewellyn, the bluest of blue-chippahs.

Football: Last year's prospects this year. Er.

Pro Football Weekly has posted their scouting reports for Michigan's NFL draft prospects. The catch: they're from last summer, before their senior years. Still an interesting read, though there's one thing that's just flagrantly wrong: in Jason Avant's profile they state he'll "make the tough catch but drop some easy ones," which has to be confused since Avant has the best hands I've ever seen a Michigan WR possess. Dude catches everything.

Also, there's this on Marlin: "Late to react at times in zone coverage and is best in one-on-one situations." Good to know we ignored that little limitation constantly.

Hockey: End the season now!

Michigan's sweep of a decent BGSU team propelled them past Minnesota and Cornell into fourth in the latest pairwise rankings (3-2-1 bonus assumed). Take a picture, kids, because it probably won't last. Michigan managed to pass Minnesota because the Gophers played an 8-23-4 Michigan Tech team and murdered their RPI in the process, and now hold the #4 spot by the whispiest of whiskers, a .0005 RPI edge. Michigan also has 8 very precarious TUC wins: 4 against BGSU (RPI .5068), 2 against UNO (RPI .5009), and 2 against Miami (RPI .5024). If any of those teams should drop below .5000 RPI Michigan may lose the comparisons against Cornell and Minnesota.

At this point Michigan is locked in somewhere between #3 and #6. They will lose comparisons to CC and DU no matter what. They will win comparisons with just about everyone else except for three tossups: BC, Minnesota, and Cornell.

Michigan currently loses its BC comparison by the thinnest TUC margin. BC has a 14-5-3 record, Michigan a 14-6-3 record. BC has a solid RPI lead. Michigan takes the CoP category (largely because they got to waste ND four times this year and BC flukily lost to them). If Michigan wins the CCHA tournament and the tenously-TUC CCHA teams remain on the good side of the line they will probably pick up two TUC wins. If BC loses to a TUC in the HEA tournament, Michigan will pick up the comparison.

To win the Minnesota comparison Michigan has to stay ahead in RPI and hope that our TUC record stands up. Michigan cannot afford to have anyone drop below the TUC Mendoza line.

To win the Cornell comparison Michigan must stay ahead in the TUC battle and beat State should Michigan face them, as that would cost Michigan its Common Opponents category against Cornell.

With that in mind, your rooting guide for next weekend:
BC over Massachusetts- paradoxically, if BC blows this weekend they won't pick up a TUC loss and we can't pass them.
Minnesota State over Minnesota - Hurt that Gopher RPI and TUC record.
UNO over LSSU- UNO must remain a TUC.
BG over UAF- ditto.
Miami over MSU- ditto, though the fact that MSU played us five times makes this closer. If Miami can remain a TUC with one win that would be best, but who knows?
Michigan over ND- well, duh.

What about Cornell? I can't decide if I want them out now so they can't pick up TUC wins or in so they can pick up a loss. Michigan's fate against Cornell will depend more on the CCHA teams hovering around the RPI Mendoza line than anything Cornell does.

My prediction: we lose one of our TUC trio and thus all three comparisons, finish #6, and get swapped to #7 and into Grand Rapids.

Hockey: Thelen gone from State

Wow. AJ Thelen has been "dismissed" from the MSU team. Rumors abound on the internet that his dismissal was at his own choosing.

Thelen, of course, was easily State's best player last year, singlehandedly holding together a thin and inexperienced blueline as an accelerated freshman. He parlayed that performance into a top-10 NHL draft pick (Minnesota). Then... well he showed up out of shape and unmotivated and played like crap all year. And now he's gone, leaving Comley with exactly zero impact players in his recruiting classes.

Thelen had this to say (from the Minneapolis Star-Trib): "I feel the coach has double standards for certain players. I definitely was confident in my schooling and academics was not a problem. I've been eligible all season and would have been next season. He's set in his ways. I tried to work with him and he tried to work with me and it didn't work out."

Could Comley get Willinghammed? Probably not, unless Ash Goldie drags a cop down the street with his car. But he's driving State straight into the ground. It doesn't take a Michigan education to see he's not the man for the job.

Football: Vikings looking hard at BE

So says the Minneapolis Star-Trib. Given the way things are going, though, I'd assume that that's the absolute lowest he'll go.

Football: mgoblog unscoop!

Dammit. Previously mentioned Honor&Glory, who reported that OH LB Cobrani Mixon had been offered by Michigan, has backed off that statement. H&G does say, however, that he has confirmed that "if Cobrani looks good at the [UM] camp this summer they will offer and he will commit."

Thanks to reader "The Mile" for the pointer.

Basketball: What, I'm writing about basketball?

Shut up. I care. I just can't bring myself to watch it much this year. But I can be roused when there's some goofyass gopher poking his head out of the ground begging to be thwacked down.

What, you say, there is? Ah, yes, I see. The DSR's resident Michigan "expert," Jordan Acker, has popped up and his cartoonish buck teeth await my swift padded mallet rebuke. Let's get it on.

First, let's take stock of Mr. Acker's fact checking. "Tommy Amaker has not beaten a ranked team on the road since February of 2001," writes Mr. Acker. Well, that's certainly an unfortunate fact... uh. Wait a minute. Later, Acker says, "And, finally, when it did, Michigan emerged stronger, with a 12-5 record, and looking, after a road win at top-15 Iowa (granted, in front of about 500 people at Carver-Hawkeye), that this team would take the next step, and make the tournament."

Okay, okay, okay. First, that sentence contains no fewer than seven commas. That's too goddamn many unless you're Faulkner. And you ain't, Jordan. Trust me. Second, uh, it directly contradicts his first sentence. I realize that he didn't get paid for this piece of... writing, but he apparently managed to write the thing without even reading it.

Second, let's take stock of his inside sources. Acker writes, "According to my source close to the team, every bad thing that’s been said about this team is completely true." Undoubtedly, this "source close to the team" is probably about as reliable as his previous source that told him that Matt Guttierez was really out because he got in a barfight. Guttierez of course later had surgery on that barfight.

Acker: "Dion quit. So did Courtney. And those two are the reason why they will be watching any tournament on TV come March." Dion, who plays 40 minutes a game flanked by Superstar Dani Wohl (no offense, Dani) and Super-Duper Star John Andrews (again, no offense, John). Courtney didn't quit, he's just Charmin soft and looked like that from Day one this year. Acker's inside source is some drunk guy he met at a Kappa Sig party. In between attempting to totally score with chicks and stuff, he offered his eternal wisdom.

Thirdly, and lastly, let's take cheap shots at Acker's intelligence. I mean, seriously. That sentence had seven commas in it! What the hell? You've got your tepid "Behind The Music" pop culture reference for "humor," your slightly-incorrect big word usage("a plethora of talent"... talent isn't a plural noun), and your stupid sweeping generalizations with nothing to back them up... it's like I'm reading a Drew Sharp column! (ZING!)

I'll just leave you with this Acker beaut on next year: "All five normal starters will return, as well as a deep recruiting class, including Romulus ’s Jarrett Smith, whose improvements in his senior season have been drastic."

As well as a deep recruiting class WHAT? You need a goddamn verb! It can't be return unless they fail senior year. "Jarrett" Smith? The same "Jarrett" Smith who's having a maddening up-and-down, inconsistent season with tons of turnovers and shooting problems? That's grammatically, factually, and... uh, spellingly wrong. All in the same sentence.

In conclusion, mgoblog has a new verb:
Acker (v): To do something so mindbogglingly badly that people wonder whether you should be mercy-killed.

I'll use it in a sentence: "Boy, Jim Herrmann sure ackered the Ohio State and Texas games."

(Jordan, baby, if you read this and feebly attempt to respond, remember that this thing was a total ad hominem (that means it attacks you), so sayin' crap about how Amaker's a "looser" ain't gonna help you. This is about you and your subsimian intelligence.)

Hockey: Travis Turnbull linkfest

Great speed, grit, and, uh, ADD.

You can buy his jersey for a mere $225 dollars. (Hobart?)

Missed about a month and half this year with a broken wrist.

His dad, Perry, was the #2 pick in the 1979 draft.

"I think that Granville school is the best school ever."

Anger!

This Pride On Ice thread has brief mention of Turnbull as the best player in a game featuring a... Gopher recruit! Say it isn't so!

My overall ballpark impression: 2nd/3rd liner with some skill. Tough to play against. Good addition.

Hockey: HF Kolarik article

There's an extensive article on Chad Kolarik up at Hockey's Future, eef you're interested. Also USCHO is reporting that Kessel is indeed going to Wisconsin. Tension!

Update: Oops. I mean Minnesota. Sorry for the confusion, kids. Apparently the big announcement has been put off until tomorrow.

Football: NFL draft stufficus

Braylon didn't run at the combine, but by all accounts he's making a run at the #1 overall pick. Apparently he walked into the weight room when the running backs were doing their benches and ripped off an impressive 22 reps for no reason--wideouts are not required (or asked) to do benches. Kiper has him #2 and with Mike Williams' mediocre 40s at the combine he's a lock to be the first WR taken. Given the questions around Rodgers and Smith, who both look more like Joey Harrington than Peyton Manning to me, and a guy who's obviously a ridiculous athlete with spectacular downfield ability... well, that might look pretty good to a San Francisco team that needs everything.

Marlin Jackson ran between a 4.55 and 4.6 on the slow RCA Dome track and tested well in all the other drills, but people seem to have mixed opinions on him. I think some team will overlook that 40 time and get him late in the first round and they'll be getting a steal. Marlin, when given the opportunity, is an excellent physical corner. He's got enough speed.

Baas' strength, versatility, and intelligence have him the #1 or #2 interior lineman on most boards. Scouts, Inc. said($) Baas " improved his stock as much as or more than any player at this year's combine to date." He'll probably go in the first half of the second, but Scouts said he could sneak into the late first round.

Shazor? No buzz around him, really. He may look like a LB/SS tweener at the moment I don't believe he ran at the combine. He'll do so at Michigan's pro day. A good time is critical for him. If he can run very well, people will look at a 6'4" guided missile and overlook his occasional coverage issues.

This site has Braylon at 2, Bass at 24, Marlin at 39, and Shazor at 57. They make it clear that their list is not a draft order projection but rather an "NFL success" projection. Which is a total copout.

Football: Michigan leads for Ohio WR

According to Bill Kurelic, Robby Paris favors Michigan has picked up early offers from BC, Iowa, and Miami... er, Miami(Ohio). An offer is not a sure thing, what with the bonanza at WR the last couple years. Michigan will probably only take one WR this year, maybe two if one can play in the secondary.

Clarett farked

OU fans love to fark. This Mo Clarett thread spawned by his 4.8 combine 40 isn't the most impressive I've seen, but it's got some gems:

Hockey: Jason Bailey er... writes

'05 recruit Jason Bailey has participated in a little Q&A session on the Yost Post. Compares himself to Nystrom and Brown, which I agree with. He's sort of a cross between the two and will be a fan favorite the minute he lights up some poor Guelph Griffin in next year's exhibition.

Hockey: Kessel DDay today

Kessel is announcing his college choice today. Widespread speculation had Kessel down to Wisconsin and Minnesota (BC and Michigan are the other two finalists), and if you want to get your speculation further specified, most people had him earmarked for the Gophers. However, reader Barry Eyestone points out this article onminnesotahockeyjournal.com that says other insiders believe Kessel will play for the Gophers... interesting because yet other insiders say that Kessel and UW commit Jack Skille really don't get along to the point where no one in either family even talks to anyone else.

Mom's always liked Michigan a lot... but it probably won't matter. Michigan's seemingly resigned itself to Kessel-loss, picking up USHL forward Travis Turnbull a few days ago. Turnbull is the son of former NHLer Perry Turnbull and seems like a mid-range forward prospect akin to a Kaleniecki. He could defer to 2006 if Kessel swerves everyone, but he's most likely coming in in the next, large class. BG, MSU, and Miami were his other finalists.

Hockey: Ugh + NTDP

Sorry about my somewhat prolonged absence. I hope no one did anything rash when deprived of the soothing glow of the blog's constant companionship, but I have excuses: everything I own is broken, including two different computers. Un-breaking them is a time consuming process.

So I'm a little out of sorts. Anyway, let's talk thrilling 6-5 victory over high-schoolers. Not just any high-schoolers, though, the National Team Development Program, who've been cutting a swath of destruction through DI-colleges this year... at least offensively. They tend to give up as many goals (lots) as they score (lots).

I chuckled when MSU lost to said team, but I changed my mind on that. The NDTP is for real. For really real. Michigan was probably playing against five top-ten NHL draft picks last night: Jack Johnson, Phil Kessel, Peter Mueller, Eric Johnson, and Jack Skille. Almost everyone else on the ice will be drafted at some point, and there are some late-first/second type players in Stoa and Mitera, etc. Keep this team together and in two years they'd be wasting everybody.

My impressions of the Michigan recruits on the NDTP:

Jack Johnson: Must have toned down his game to play his future teammates, because he didn't rip anyone's throat out and smash a now-lifeless carcass to the ground. He didn't even think about it. I was a little disappointed given the descriptions I'd heard of his play at the recent U18 tournament and games against UNH, MSU, and Minnesota. I wanted to see him run somebody over. Maybe that little Gerbe kid.

Johnson's non-physical game was very aggressive nonetheless. At one point on a USA PP he ended up in the corner of his offensive zone, battling for the puck for a good 10-15 seconds. When given open ice he rushed into the offensive zone without delay. He'll have to pick his spots doing that in college.

Mark Mitera: Happy happy happy. Mitera is mana from heaven for this Michigan fan: a big, physical defenseman who can skate and positions himself very well. He is exactly what Michigan's defensive corps needs for next year. Hell, he's exactly what they need this year. If he can go out and do nothing else other than mash people into the ground and keep them away from the goalie, I'll be ecstatic.

But wait! There's more! He's tied for second on the team for points by a defensman (5-12-17), behind Johnson. He's got a little two-way action in his game, too.

Jason Bailey: tbarr on the Wolverine predicted that people would love Bailey, and he's right. Bailey was absolutely flying all over the ice on Saturday, finishing every check he could and generally looking like Mike Brown at his most effective. He also made a couple of very nice passes that suggest his slim line of 5-6-11 on the year could be a function of his role on the deep and talented NDTP team and not indicative of his overall offensive talent. He'll be a player opponents hate to deal with.

Zach MacVoy: All right, I admit that MacVoy did not stand out to me in any way. I was trying to track two and sometimes three future Wolverines on the ice at all times while simultaneously watching every move Kessel made. With Johnson plunging into the offensive zone, Bailey smacking people, and Mitera making me giddy with his ability to not screw up, MacVoy sort of blended into the wallpaper. It'll have to wait.

Dan Fardig: Fardig scored on his first shift in Yost after Bailey wasted a Michigan player along the end boards. The puck popped out into the slot and he jammed home the first shot of the game. Instictively, I cried "Dammit, Montoya!" before realizing that Ruden was in net, at which point I decided I would best be served by impolite muttering instead of yelling.

Anyway. Fardig is going to be a walk-on, Charlie Henderson/JJ Swistak redux. That includes the Swistak on D experiment Michigan was forced into a couple years back, when a rash of injuries saw little JJ draw in for about five minutes a game on D. Michigan will have somewhere from 6 to 8 defensemen next year, depending on whether Reilly Olson returns and how capable BU transfer Adam Dunlap proves to be. If that number is closer to 6, Fardig may end up skating backwards.

Oh, yeah... Phil Kessel... sweet fancy Moses. Michigan managed to not get undressed by him (leaving that to Gerbe for the most part) but it didn't really matter. He got loose on a wing once, and stared at a sort-of bad angle shot with Ruden in decent position. Then he just put it in the most unsavable place he could, as if it was nothing. Red light. All I know is we had better keep beating the Gophers in football.

At least the Gophs will be heavily featuring goalie Jeff Frazee, who, to be blunt, sucks. Frazee handled almost nothing cleanly all night, leaving rebound after rebound in the slot on shots that hit his trapper, chest, etc. He let in an unscreened Tambellini shot from outside the top of the faceoff circle (a Tambellini special, to be sure, but still...). When Tamby completed his hat trick with 5.3 seconds left in the game, Frazee flipped out. Flipped out like Patton discovering his son wants to be a hairdresser. He tossed his helmet against the glass, swearing over and over again. When he returned to his net he assaulted it with his goalie stick and threw his water bottle across the ice. Serenity now!

In conclusion: Gopher games in the near future will all end 10-7.